What Does Fangraphs Have To Say About The Current NL Central Outlook?

The Cubs are currently in second place in the NL Central, behind the Milwaukee Brewers. They just finished a successful west coast trip where they faced the Padres, Mariners, and Diamondbacks. They blew two games due to a poor bullpen performance, which I could argue is still a good sign, showing their potential. At the beginning of the season, the St. Louis Cardinals were the favorites to win the division. Why this was the case is beyond me, as I predicted them to finish in the bottom half of the division.

On Opening Day, St. Louis had a 32.5% chance to win the division. Thanks to their poor start, these odds are now 21.5%. At 9-10, the Cardinals are currently in last place. It's only a few weeks into the season, so there is plenty of time to turn things around. These odds can change. Even though they’re in last place, the Cardinals are still projected to finish third. The Cubs started at 25% to win the division but have raised that to 30.4% over the last few weeks. Let's look at what has affected that increase and where the Cubs stand as they enter a short seven-game homestand. 

At 11-7, Craig Counsell’s team has the 7th-best record in all of baseball. Fangraphs projects the Cubs to finish at 84 wins. This projection has the Brewers and Cardinals winning 83 games each, which would make for a very stressful finish to the season. Something that I think will help is when the team is healthy.

Losing Justin Steele on Opening Day hurt this ball club, but Javier Assad has been fantastic to replace the team’s ace. He has a 2.16 ERA and a 0.960 WHIP, averaging 5.4 innings per start. My main worry when Steele got injured was that whoever replaced him would be subpar at best and nowhere near a quality replacement. Thankfully, Assad has taken over wonderfully. He will most likely move to the bullpen soon, but having him as a long relief option is extremely valuable for Counsell. Due to taking Assad out of the bullpen and having a possible relief option in Ben Brown be part of the rotation, there haven’t been many trustworthy arms after the starter leaves the game. Taillon returning will allow more bullpen flexibility, along with Steele in a few weeks. Hendricks has been awful, although that’s a conversation for another time. Another fun reason to believe in the rotation is that we have a deep farm system to trade for another pitcher and eventually call up Cade Horton. 

The Cubs' offense has been relatively healthy, for which we are very fortunate. There was a rumor that Christopher Morel would be out for some time, but thankfully, he has looked better in the last few games. Seiya Suzuki went on the Injured List (IL) after hurting his oblique, a major blow to this lineup. Cody Bellinger and Nico Hoerner have been off to rather slow starts, and Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson are cooling off offensively. The main thing that can give you hope with the offense is that even with all of these parts missing, the Cubs are still projected to win the division. Eighty-four wins does seem low, and I assume the division champion will secure at least 86-88 wins after the season concludes. 

We can better assess the projections once April is over, giving us more time to see how things play out. One thing to always keep in mind is that these are just projections. Baseball is a crazy game, and wild things happen all the time. No, I’m not saying the Athletics will win the division (although that would be highly entertaining). However, things can change quickly, so you should always look at projections with a grain of salt. The other teams in the NL Central seem to be cooling off, so now would be a perfect time for the Cubs to have an elite homestead and take control of first place. As Mike Tauchman said at Cubs Convention this January, "If you get in the dance, you have a chance."