Chicago Cubs' Game 1 Loss Revealed the Playbook Against Their Top Hitters

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The Chicago Cubs lost Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series to the San Diego Padres. A loss, in itself, is obviously bad. But it's a short series, and the Cubs feature an offense that could turn things back in their favor on Wednesday night. What Game 1 didn't do, however, is leave much room for optimism that they actually can.

Michael King was dominant on the hill for the Padres. That part isn't surprising. While his strikeout numbers are down in 2026, he's routinely been able to turn in six (or so) innings of excellent run prevention, courtesy of soft contact and a rising groundball rate. For an offense like the Cubs' to reach the seventh inning before notching their first hit, though, is indicative of how much their top hitters failed to rise to the occasion in the 8-0 loss. That sets up some legitimate concerns heading into Game 2.

Pete-Crow Armstrong, for example, was 0-for-3 with a walk. He struck out three times and whiffed at five of the eight pitches at which he swung. Alex Bregman posted a similar line, going 0-for-4 with a trio of punchouts. He swung the bat 11 times and whiffed on six of them. These are two of the best hitters in the National League. Crow-Armstrong will be the NL's runaway Most Valuable Player, following a 45-homer, 41-steal, 10.6 fWAR season. (He did, at least, contribute a well-worked walk and steal a base in the loss.) Bregman rode a scorching second half to a 5.5-fWAR campaign that made him the seventh-most-valuable position player the sport had to offer. But King and the Padres had the book on each of them from the start.

Crow-Armstrong swung at two sweepers on the evening and whiffed on both. Bregman had the bat moving at seven of them and whiffed on five. For both hitters this year, the breaking pitch has served as their highest source of swing-and-miss; Crow-Armstrong's gone for a whiff rate of 31.3%, while Bregman's done so at a 26.3% clip. Both hitters have had success on contact, but they make that contact when a pitcher leaves their breaking stuff in the zone. Burying the sweeper as effectively as King did on Tuesday stifled each. The hitters beyond the top two may have not whiffed at it in quite the same fashion, but only Carson Kelly registered a hard-hit ball on a breaking pitch, while the lefties were peppered with sinkers. There was simply no path to generating offense for a team that has ranked 20th in the league in runs scored over the past two weeks.

The larger problem for the Cubs is now they have to turn around and face a pitcher (Nick Pivetta) who leans heavily on a curveball against lefties and more of a sweeper shape against right-handed hitters. It's not quite the same upside as King, but the profile isn't dissimilar enough that the Cubs will see an entirely different look. If Pivetta is able to locate remotely as well as his comrade in the Padres' rotation, the path to success against the Cubs has already been set forth.

The good news is that Pivetta isn't King, in a few important ways. He works from a high arm slot, so his misses are vertical, more than horizontal. Historically, he misses within the zone fairly often, and he gives up homers. It's likely that he makes some mistakes on which Crow-Armstrong and Bregman can prey. If he takes his cue from his teammate and executes equally well, though, the Cubs' season could be over by the stroke of midnight.