Can Ben Brown Reach the Next Level in His Development Without a Third Pitch?

In his rookie campaign, Ben Brown flashed a high-octane fastball and a devastating knuckle-curve, riding those two pitches to a 3.63 ERA in 55 big-league innings. While it was a strong start to his career, his ability to further develop his repertoire will determine how effective he can be in a starting role. What does Brown need to do to take the next step?

It takes an exceptional pitcher to navigate a lineup multiple times with only two pitches in the modern major leagues. While Brown’s arsenal is good, it’s shallow, and that could pose a problem if he's to continue in a fully stretched-out role. Last year, his breaking ball was arguably the best pitch among all Cubs pitchers, as Stuff+ gives it an elite 124 grade. While averaging 96.4 mph, however, his fastball didn’t come near that level of dominance, with a grade of 85. (For Stuff+, 100 is average and higher is better.) His heater performed well in a small sample in 2024, but the expected stats point to some regression moving forward. Brown needs to diversify his attack to stay afloat in a starting role, and doing so could take his performance to new highs.

The (literal) change the Cubs would surely like to see from Brown is further use of the changeup he rarely threw in 2024. He threw the pitch under 2% of the time, barely enough to be considered a "show-me" pitch. In those few instances, the pitch showed some decent characteristics, such as a 25% whiff rate and a -18° launch angle allowed. The sample size is far from significant, but there are some positives to take away.

Brown didn’t exactly struggle against left-handed hitters, at least not in a traditional sense. While he didn’t dominate them to the degree of right-handers, his .681 OPS allowed was more than serviceable. Instead, Brown walked 11% of opposing left-handed hitters, compared to just under 6% of righties. It seemed, at times, like Brown’s pair of pitches could be waited out by hitters on that side of the plate, and while they didn’t necessarily crush him, they could take their free passes.

Further leaning into his changeup is the obvious solution. A merely usable changeup has traditionally been a massive advantage against opposite-handed hitters. The pitch itself can become a weapon, and having it in a hitter's mind can help increase the effectiveness of his other offerings. Even with his limited pitch mix in 2024, Brown struck out nearly 30% of opposing hitters, regardless of what side of the plate they were on. Developing a true equalizer for left-handed hitters is an untapped gold mine.

If he spends significant time in the rotation, Brown may be due for some growing pains in 2025. As dominant as his two-pitch mix was in 2024, the lack of diversity will make it easier to create a scouting report. Many opposing hitters will have also seen Brown’s stuff firsthand, and they'll probably be more prepared.

Between his upper-90s fastball and that dominant breaking ball, Brown has a strong foundation in place. The fact that he had as much success as he did with these two pitches in his first taste of the majors speaks to the raw talent. His current pitch mix gives him a floor of being a strong option to turn to out of the bullpen. The question is his ceiling, which would be raised significantly by adding one more usable offering to his repertoire.

Brown is an unfinished product as a starting pitcher. On the downside, adding a pitch capable of retiring MLB hitters is easier said than done. The good news is that based on the success he’s already shown with a limited pitch mix, doing so turns him into a dominant piece of the Cubs' rotation for years to come. It's just a matter of finding the third pitch he can execute, while staying healthy and not compromising his other offerings.

Can Brown succeed with two pitches? Is his changeup the right solution to the problems a two-pitch mix poses? Let's hear your thoughts on the young arm.