Analyzing Shota Imanaga's First Two MLB Starts

Shota Imanaga is off to a very strong start, but how long will it last? Imanaga has appeared in two games so far this season, both being at Wrigley Field. I’ve been present for both, and they were an absolute joy to watch.

The first game was the Cubs' home opener, a 1:20 game against the Rockies. It was very cold, with the wind chill sitting around 36-42 degrees. The wind was blowing in at around 12 miles per hour. I was in the bleachers for this game (left field, of course), so I had no cover from the rain. While it was cold, I was ok with just a few layers on. However, it started to rain later in the game, which made the conditions much worse. My initial worry was how Imanaga would react to the cold weather, but he did just fine. He carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning, when Charlie Blackmon broke it up with a single.

The reason I bring up the weather is that those conditions have major implications, for pitchers and for hitters. When it is cold, we normally see fewer runs scored. The wind was also blowing in, which helps prevent fly balls from becoming home runs. Imanaga is a pitcher who often gives up fly balls, so home runs were a worry for Cubs fans when he signed. He did, indeed, induce a lot of fly balls; the Rockies didn't put a ball on the ground against him all night. While there were some pop flies and line drives included, there were a couple of typically dangerous outfield flies, too.

Sitting in the bleachers, a lot of fly balls look like home runs. One of the main reasons no home runs were hit was the wind. Without the wind, I’d predict as many as three of the fly outs leave the field. However, weather is part of a game, and he had nine strikeouts, without issuing a walk. The Cubs won the game 5-0, mainly because of a Nolan Jones error that allowed the Cubs to score three. Imanaga threw 92 pitches, and walked away with the win.

Game Two for Imanaga was the rubber match against the Dodgers, with another day of poor weather. While it wasn’t as windy, I’d say it felt colder than his first start. I was covered this time, which was good: rain fell all game. Around the third inning, it started hailing, although that didn’t last long. Imanaga had a ground ball rate of 18.2%, so at least he is capable of getting those. He struck out three batters, but only threw four innings and 42 pitches. He only gave up two hits, and left the game after the three-hour rain delay. Due to not completing five innings, he was not eligible for the win.

It’s disappointing, because he would have easily gotten through six or seven innings without the storms. While the strikeouts were lower, he was also facing an elite offense that is worlds better than the Rockies. He struck out Shohei Ohtani on a 94-mph fastball, which was a highlight for the fans and Japanese media.

He is scheduled to pitch this Saturday in Seattle, where the weather will not affect him, due to the retractable roof there. As I have mentioned before, my main worry is that the weather was heavily aiding him in these starts. However, his xBA is .210, which is still very good. He is near the top of the league in chase and whiff rate, as well as his strikeout and walk percentages. Imanaga came to Chicago with moderate expectations, and has already become a fan favorite. It may be too early to fully analyze his performance, but we’ve seen a lot of positives so far.