Aaron Civale Has Earned A Bigger Role In Cubs’ Bullpen

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It’s no secret that the Chicago Cubs’ offense has been elite this season. But as September nears its end and postseason baseball gets closer and closer, the importance of quality pitching gets magnified.

Obviously, it’s a great thing to be able to score a ton of runs over the course of a 162-game season. But it’s another thing entirely to consistently prevent them when every game starts carrying significantly more weight. And compared to the other playoff teams in the National League, Chicago has allowed the most runs this season with 674. Of course, it doesn't help that the pitching staff has dealt with more than its fair share of injuries throughout the year, forcing Craig Counsell and the front office to constantly shuffle things around. But October baseball doesn’t care about injuries or bad luck from earlier in the season.

The Cubs are going to need some arms to step up in the playoffs, and veteran right-hander Aaron Civale has a very strong case to be one of those guys. Civale had a really strong stint with the Cubs last season, so after leaving to sign with the A’s this offseason, a reunion made plenty of sense. Chicago eventually acquired him from Oakland in mid-to-late July, right around the trade deadline. Still, there wasn’t exactly a ton of excitement surrounding his encore.

That’s understandable when you consider some of the other additions the Cubs made around the deadline. Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes understandably received much more attention, while Civale felt more like a depth addition than somebody who would have a significant role in the postseason. Perhaps there should’ve been a little more excitement.

Over the last month, Civale has allowed one singular earned run across 17 innings of work. He’s allowing fewer than one baserunner per inning on average while striking out a batter per inning as well. Clearly, the Cubs have been able to unlock something with Civale that other teams simply haven’t.

Going back to his brief stint in Chicago last season, Civale posted a 2.08 ERA. Granted, that came over just 13 innings, so it’s obviously a small sample size. But it was still a drastic improvement from what he did elsewhere, as he posted a 5.37 ERA with the White Sox and a 4.91 ERA with the Brewers.

Fast-forward to this season, and Civale is sporting a 1.42 ERA as a Cub compared to a 5.42 mark with the A’s. At this point, it’s difficult to chalk that up entirely to coincidence. He's been a much different pitcher with the Cubs than he has been elsewhere, and there’s a pretty obvious reason why: He’s been used out of the bullpen.

For most of his career, Civale has been a starter. But Chicago has moved him into a relief role, and it appears to have been a pretty significant change for him. He can attack hitters more aggressively without having to worry about pacing himself through five or six innings, and the results have been pretty hard to argue with. Which brings up an interesting question heading into the postseason. How much should the Cubs trust Civale in the later innings of close games?

Civale hasn’t been utilized much in high-leverage situations since joining Chicago, and on the surface, that might seem like a pretty obvious reason for Counsell to continue using him in more of a middle-relief role. After all, Civale has allowed six earned runs over six innings in high-leverage situations this season. But the underlying numbers tell a somewhat different story.

Those six runs have come on just four hits and one walk, and his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage allowed in high-leverage spots are all lower than his marks in medium and low-leverage situations. Meanwhile, some of the pitchers Counsell has been relying on later in games haven’t exactly been at their sharpest recently (I’m looking at you, Jacob Webb).

That doesn’t mean Civale suddenly needs to become Chicago’s closer. The Cubs have other options for the ninth inning, and Counsell has handled his bullpen with more intent than just "riding the hot hand" all year long. But the right-hander has earned an opportunity to be trusted in the later innings of tight games more than he has been to this point.

The Cubs spent much of the season searching for reliable pitching, and they may have found one of their most intriguing bullpen pieces in a pitcher who was already familiar with the organization. Counsell and the Cubs obviously know more about their pitching staff than I do, and they’ll ultimately do whatever they feel gives them the best chance to win. But if it were up to me, Civale would absolutely be one of the late-inning options down the stretch. Because if the Cubs are going to make what they hope is a deep playoff run, they’re going to need more than just their offense to carry them. And right now, Civale looks like an arm worth trusting when the games matter most.