Javy Is Still a Cub 2

Ok, so 5% more makes him 3x more productive? Dawson on a last-place team - PCA on the best hitting Cubs team of all-time? Does that mean anything to you - i.e. getting pitched around or pitched to - or is that too much to wrap your head around? Ishmael!

Check bWar. Cheers

I'm very familiar with WAR - I don't know why you assume that I do not? I'm just a skeptic. Why? A million examples, like saying that PCA 2026 is 3x as productive as Dawson 1987 was. Saying "WAR is the proof" is saying I have to take WAR on faith - brother, I won't do that. Why? Again, a million examples which show that WAR is far from God (i.e. perfection). You're asking me to accept something which nobody can explain. Why would I do that? I'll drop the subject - don't want to perseverate in a great thread. But I also don't think anyone is going to actually try and explain how PCA 2016 is 3x the player Dawson 1987 was (or Bruce "Hi, this is me revolutionzing the split-finger fastball" Sutter 1976 through 1980, LOL) without saying: just trust the WAR. Call me Ishmael, I mean Infidel!

Pages still leads MLB in assists and double plays despite missing - what, a month? Also leads OFers in almighty WAR, still. Dawson had the most HR and RBI in the NL in 20 and 10 years respectively. And he only got 20 GWRBI, but hey - LOL - it's his fault the Cubs were a last place team. (Tell me you don't play baseball without telling me you don't play baseball....)

You think he's going to beat out Pages of LA for the GG? Pages has some better stats (because they ran on him way more than they ran on Pete), including defensive WAR. Can you win the Platinum Glove and not the GG, LOL? Pete's had a handful of misplays this year, unfortunately. Might cost him both awards.

Thank you for your help. I was the original Javy Is Still a Cub. Starting a new one seemed easier, LOL. Believing that Javy is ALWAYS a Cubs is not the sign of a distorted worldview - it is a sign of the magic of El Mago!

I appreciate the reply - although nobody appreciates having their worldview called "simple" in a pejorative sense - but you're asking me to disprove a claim WAR when WAR is the one making the claim. Can anyone justify how PCA's 2016 season is 3x more valuable than Dawson's 1987? This is neither anecdote nor conjecture - WAR is making THIS SPECIFIC claim that Dawson '87 was a third as productive as PCA '26. PCA 2026 is an incredibly well-rounded player - but that makes him 3x more productive than the awesome, dominant, a-last-place-team-can't-stop-me-from-winning-the-MVP Dawson 1987? Reminder: Dawson was the first player to win MVP EVER on a last place team. Only ARod has done it since. This is WAR making the claim - not me. Can anyone justify it - 3x more productive? Again, using other, non-WAR stats: couple dozen less SBs, 50 or so less walks, 5 more homers, slightly worse D (I mean, Dawson was an elite fielder or near-elite fielder, too, so let's certainly give PCA the nod but it's not like Dawson was Adam Dunn out there, LOL), and all while hitting on the best-hitting Cubs team in 150 years, LOL... 1/3 rd as productive? WAR is making the claim - they're the ones who have to justify it. It sure doesn't seem like it holds water....

It's not troll bait? It's a statistical analysis of a statistic: WAR is saying that PCA's 2026 season is 3x better than Dawson's 1987 MVP season. I mean... that's just absurd, right? Dawson's couple dozen less SBs, 50 or so less walks, 5 more homers and gold glove D is worth just 33% of PCA's season? Ergo, and e pluribus unum: the problem is the statistic itself. So I really don't think the problem with is my "worldview", either? Not trolling, not my worldview. Bottom line: if anyone can explain how Dawson needs 3 1987s to match 1 PCA 2026... I mean... if Dawson did that he would be in the HOF (oh wait he is). This isn't taking away from PCA at all - it's taking away from WAR.

This is why WAR is obviously such a failed stat: Andre Dawson won the MVP in 1987, bashing the most home runs in the NL in 20 years, leading the league in total bases and RBI (even though he was on a last-place team), and game-winning RBI (a stat they don't seem to care about anymore but which used to be on baseball cards and, again, on a last-place team. Hey, what's clutch? Ah, that's a phony, outdated concept, right...). He won the gold glove (one of his eight) yet Fangraphs and Baseball Reference both have him as a negative defender that year (FG for his entire career, BR has him almost neutral for his career...). LOL, the idea that Dawson was a negative or neutral defender 1987 is simply absurd - nobody ran on him, as he had one of the truly best arms of his era, even if his mobility wasn't what it used to be, thanks to Montreal's turf; he threw out lazy batters at first that year. But what's even more absurd? Telling me that PCA's 2026 season is worth 3x of Dawson's 1987 season. FG has Dawson's '87 campaign as worth 3.5 wins, Pete is at 10.4 fwar. Don't get me started on Bruce Sutter. You're saying that PCA 2026 is better than the two years Sutter finished in the top 7 in voting... MVP voting?! (He did win a mere Cy Young with the Cubs.) Ok, you'll say relief pitchers aren't as important as everyday players. Fine. PCA's 2026 campaign is worth more than Sutter's whole Cub career, even if we add in his other two all-star campaigns, one of which garnered top-20 MPV votes? Negatory. Mucho negatory. Obviously, a big part for those who say that WAR is so solid is that people didn't know how to value players back in the day. But if you're saying PCA is worth 3.5 Dawson 1987s... you weren't watching in 1987, for sure. Dawson dominated the game day in and day out - this was a terrible team and you only had to stop Dawson, but they couldn't. Or you're also saying that Sutter's '79 Cy and Dawson's '87 MVP should have gone elsewhere but... that wasn't the consensus then. Or you're saying that 1987 was just a bad year for baseball... so bad that its MVP had 1/3rd the impact of 2026's. Or you're saying something that is... I dunno, but 3x the season as Dawson's 1987 can't be right. And yet baseball's stat nerds - so uniquely nerdy and as fundamentalist as has ever existed - will believe that it is... because the stat says so. Great thread, great PCA campaign - but the WAR-love is clearly out of control.