Tommy Ciaccio

Few expected this mid-season series to have the look it does. Let's dive into how the Cubs and Brewers got here. Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports If there’s ever been a representation of a rivalry manifesting in two more opposite teams, I haven’t seen it. The Brewers are atop the NL Central, and the Cubs are dead last. The Brewers have cobbled together a piecemeal rotation headlined by Freddy Peralta and a mish-mash of whoever has been available after - potentially soon to be including recently acquired Dallas Keuchel. On the other hand, the Cubs have a knockout mix of prodigious young talent, veterans, and the indomitable sensation that seems to have emerged in Shota Imanaga. Even though the Crew’s rotation appears to be a deficit, the bullpen is world-class, and the talent only seems to concentrate as the game gets deeper into the innings. The Cubs bullpen? The less said, the better. All of this existed alongside the salacious ark of Craig Counsell, leaving the Brewers to manage the Cubs, adding a firehose of kerosene to what was a fairly dormant rivalry. And now, they square off at American Family Field in Milwaukee. What can we expect other than deafening boos any time Counsell enters the fanbase’s field of vision? Let’s break it down. Friday, June 28th Jameson Taillon (4-3, 2.90 ERA) vs. Colin Rea (6-2, 3.62 ERA) Brewers righty Colin Rea is a complete anomaly. More on that below, but the gist is in the looming pessimistic peripherals surrounding his play. Rea is in the bottom 10% in his expected ERA at 5.34, nearly two points above reality. His xBA is an unsustainable .289. He isn’t fooling hitters, he isn’t getting many strikeouts, batters aren’t chasing his stuff, and when they make contact, they hit the ball hard. Still, relative to those facts, the action at home plate has been relatively sparse. Predictive analytics make it feel decidedly imminent that, at some point, Colin Rea’s cracks will prove him unsustainable for a big league rotation. Still, it’s the middle of the season and hasn’t happened yet. Saturday, June 29th Justin Steele (0-3, 3.08 ERA) vs. Tobias Myers (5-2, 3.12 ERA) The benefit for the Brewers in enduring all of the attrition their starting rotation has faced this season is that it’s given a glimpse into what’s cooking with their young arms. Among the brightest spots has to be young righty Tobias Myers. It was another solid start for Myers, who gave up one run and five hits over three innings, salvaging a W for the Brewers in a four-game series where they’d lost the previous three. His 3.0 K/BB rate looks good for a rookie, and the whiff rate on his vicious slider is an impressive 33%. It should be said that he was leaning heavily on his much less showy fastball at his last start. The Cubs will have to approach this crafty youngster with a keen eye if they are going to get the best of him. Sunday, June 30th Kyle Hendricks (1-5, 6.87 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (5-4, 4.03 ERA) It was a sigh of relief for Brewers fans to see Freddy Peralta give up only two runs and strike out six Rangers over five innings in his last start. June has been ugly for Peralta, who, even with this reasonably good start behind him, still holds an unsightly 5.11 ERA in June. It’s not that his numbers are bad, but they aren’t what the Brewers are hoping for in their stand-in ace. It wasn’t too long ago that Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta formed an imposing trifecta of All-Star power that generated sweeps and struck fear into the hearts of their opponents. One wonders if, with the withering of that rotation, perhaps Peralta’s gusto may have waned a bit, too. Time will tell, but the Cubs look to have a chance to inflame that ugly June ERA a bit more. Players To Watch Jackson Chourio: It’s been a solid June for the prodigious young Jackson Chourio, who’s batting .219 with two homers since the start of the month. Chourio was red hot out of the gates but faded quickly by the end of April before a miserable May. The leash is long for Chourio, who signed an $82 million contract at the start of the season with the tacit understanding that it would make moot any service time shenanigans and allow him to hit the majors right away. The June he’s putting up is deciding to keep Chourio up, and a relative mainstay in the lineup looks like a good one. Cubs fans should keep an eye on the development of young Jackson Chourio, whose pre-season comps likened him to the nascent forms of Julio Rodriguez and Ronald Acuna Jr. If he reaches even close to his ceiling, look out. Colin Rea: No single baseball player has provided me with more mystification than Colin Rea. It isn’t that he’s particularly dazzling; it’s that the peripherals suggest that almost every time he’s taken the mound and yielded good results, it’s been by some unsustainable and befuddling measure of good luck. Still, he’s produced a respectable 3.81 ERA and does a decent enough job eating innings, throwing for at least six in four of his starts and through seven in one of them. This isn’t ace-like material, but Rea was never expected to be an ace. He was essentially a bargain grab from the scrap heap after the Cubs released him in 2021. Going glass half empty, his most recent start could be a harbinger of what those pesky peripherals hint at. The Padres pelted him for five runs in 5.1 innings in what would ultimately be a no-decision. Still, Rea has rebounded from lousy starts in the past, often with aplomb. It’ll be interesting to see which Colin Rea shows up. Ian Happ: But not for the reasons Cubs fans might hope. Happer has been one of those players whose face-of-the-franchise is adjacent since his arrival at the show. Not necessarily elite, but reliable, versatile, and homegrown. He’s a one-time All-Star, two-time Gold Glove winner, and has netted himself an 18th place in MVP voting. You get the picture; he’s a solid player. The issue with Happ isn’t manifesting in some grand decline, but it’s difficult not to notice that his offensive numbers are down across the board. It can be particularly deflating to a struggling team when a cornerstone player who’s been with the team for the better part of a decade also appears to be struggling. Still, everything about Ian Happ’s career suggests that it’s a matter of when, and not if, he will turn it around. Glass half-full perspective? He’s still walking at a 12.6% clip, putting him in the top 7% of the league. Cody Bellinger: There was a bit of magic felt at Wrigley Field when a non-tendered Cody Bellinger signed a one-year deal to prove his value and reminded everyone why he won his MVP in 2019. He came in a respectable tenth in that category, batting for a .305 average and an .881 OPS+. The power last season was nearly halved from his peak (26 HRs to 2019’s 47), but his resurgence was less in the slugging and more in reinventing himself as a threat to simply hit. The power is a bit further diminished with only one homer in June, but he is hitting an even .300. If Belli can be a bit more prolific with the pop, don’t be surprised if he makes this year’s contract look as big of a bargain as 2023’s. Predictions: Coming into this series, the Brewers hold a 4-3 record for the season against the Cubs, and that feels as fair a predictor as anything. The Cubs may not yet be living up to the expectations set for them at the season’s beginning, but they aren’t a basement bottom-tier team either. That and the animus that likely exists as a byproduct of the Craig Counsell hire means both teams will play with a chip on their shoulder. I think the Brewers take the series but are denied the sweep. View full article