CandidCubs

Every day, my school days get further into the past. I may not be old enough to be phrasing this in such a manner, but I'm sure the structure of this sentence has transported you back to a potentially sweaty/awkward stage. Now that I have revealed so much about myself, I will get to my point. In school, I recall getting extremely elaborate assignments as semesters would end. The rubrics received with said assignments would be long and intricate, laying out what needed to be captured to achieve top marks. As the project begins, everyone has the intent of getting the best score. However, time, energy, effort, and a multitude of other factors push you toward what I used to refer to as the bargaining period. In this period, you would sacrifice sections of the project in order to spend more time on sections that were assigned higher point values, or to realistically complete the assignment in some form within the time constraints artificially or accidentally created. At this point, you have now turned in a project that is not meeting all the objectives. However, you are fairly confident that in the areas you addressed, you will get full marks. That is the 2024 Chicago Cubs. They started the offseason addressing an area that has a meaningful impact on the team (manager Craig Counsell), but ended up only partially addressing segments of the roster that felt like top priorities as soon as the last out of the 2023 team was caught. The 2023 Cubs did only miss the playoffs by one game, but their fatal flaws were obvious by the end of the campaign: Major-league quality relief pitching depth. Major-league average (at minimum) production at first and third base. The Cubs ranked 28th in offensive production at the cold corner, and 25th at the hot one. Additional starting rotation depth A true star in the rotation and/or the lineup. The offesason started with a bang, with the Cubs taking Counsell in what felt like a Jokeresque magic trick. The rest is history. Players Departed Trey Mancini Eric Hosmer (Thank God) Marcus Stroman 1/2 of Jeimer Candelario Nick Burdi Michael Fulmer Brad Boxberger Codi Heuer (That Kimbrel trade has had mixed results) Players Added Shota Imanaga Cody Bellinger (Another Thank God) Héctor Neris Yency Almonte Michael Busch Garrett Cooper Opening Day Roster Position Players Yan Gomes Miguel Amaya Michael Busch Garrett Cooper Nick Madrigal Nico Hoerner Dansby Swanson Miles Mastrobuoni Christopher Morel Ian Happ Cody Bellinger Mike Tauchman Seiya Suzuki Pitchers Javier Assad Shota Imanaga Kyle Hendricks Justin Steele Jordan Wicks Yency Almonte Adbert Alzolay José Cuas Mark Leiter Jr. Luke Little Julian Merryweather Héctor Neris Drew Smyly In all, this is a very similar-looking group to last year's squad, with a huge difference at the managerial position. I'll admit it is hard to quantify how much a manager can change things, but the commentary this offseason by Jed Hoyer on being "uncomfortable" and the pedigree Craig Counsell has built his career on has me feeling confident. Strengths Pitching Bullpen Depth Down the stretch in 2023, the Cubs pitching staff looked gassed. On one hand, that is likely due to the career high in innings for guys like Steele and Merryweather, while also acknowledging that Hoyer and Carter Hawkins did not get enough quality major-league-caliber arms in that offseason or at the deadline. Keegan Thompson went from penciled-in weapon to a "that would be a nice surprise" in 2024. Daniel Palencia continues to be all stuff and mixed execution. This isn't quite Dillon Maples territory, but it feels eerily similar. The farm system has options to bolster this group through the year, though, while also adding veteran Héctor Neris, along with intriguing options in trade with Cuas and Almonte. Expect to see Ben Brown, Cam Sanders, and Thompson at some points, as well. Up-the-Middle Defense Officially golden in phrasing and actuality, "Nickel and Dimes" will continue to hold together a defensive group that was a highlight in 2023. Getting Bellinger back in the fold as the organization awaits to deploy the star power of Pete Crow-Armstrong is a solid defensive move. Lineup Length/Flexibility Even with a lot of spots locked down on the field, Counsell has options to take advantage of matchups using the corners, DH, and lineup order to maximize effectiveness. The 2023 bench was burdened with failed first-base experiments and ground-ball factories like Mancini and Hosmer. Weaknesses Starting Rotation Let me explain. Losing the ostensible reliability of a player like Marcus Stroman is a bigger deal than I think folks realize. The 162-game season is a marathon, and the minimum of 1,458 Innings of coverage needed takes a village. With Jameson Taillon starting the season on the injured list, the depth will be tested early, with Assad and Wicks slotting into the rotation until he is ready to return. Strikeouts I have been preaching this on Bricks Behind the Ivy (sorry to the choir if you have been listening. Also, thank you for listening). This pitching staff is missing swing-and-miss. The global average strikeout rate is 22.7%. The Cubs, as a staff, had a 22.6% rate in 2023, but the bullpen did most of the heavy lifting just to get them into the average range. Imanaga's 46% spring rate is a good sign for a rotation looking for whiffs, but may not be enough. If the offseason had progressed at a different pace, do the rumors of Mariners starters or Shane Bieber come to fruition? There is still a trade deadline to try to address this. The good news is, this division has no juggernaut to knock anyone out early, besides the undefeated training room and injured list. Conclusion Two people have said the following to me in recent weeks and it has really stuck in my brain. "The Cubs are not great at anything, nor are they bad at anything. It will take a hot team to beat them, as they won't beat themselves." "Isn't this the window? Didn't we extend Nico and Happ at a cost-controlled rate, along with landing Dansby and Seiya to add to that core? If not now, when?" In a division that is using computers to race to their versions of 85 wins, the Cubs have a very solid floor. They need Christopher Morel to put a full season together at the plate, similar to last year at least, and to be serviceable (or just tenable? Semi-playable?) at third base. Michael Busch would be a fun story and a savvy trade to put on Jed Hoyer's résumé. That production alone would make this team better than last year, as that would constitute the stability and averageness they didn't have at either corner at any point last year. There will be times this year when top-100 prospects will grace this roster to push them, as bright green ivy transitions to dark tones with mixed-in reds in the fall. However, it is hard not to wonder what a more all-in effort would look like in a division up for grabs. Will the (very) team-friendly Scott Boras swap meet at the end of the offseason that benefited NL Wild Card hopefuls in the West come back to haunt the less eager Cubs? Time will tell. Prediction: 88-74, popping Division Champion champagne bottles How do you think the Cubs will do this year? Are they a playoff team? Let us know below. Happy Opening Day!

When I volunteered to write the positional preview for shortstop this year, I had great intentions to focus writing on one of my favorite current Chicago Cubs: Dansby Swanson. With a team that is struggling for clarity on the corners of the diamond, it is comforting to know how solid up the middle this team is. Let’s take a look at the depth at this position in 2024: The Starter: Dansby Swanson 2023 Stats: .244/.328/.416, 24.1 K%, 10.3 BB%, .172 ISO, 104 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR 2024 Projections (ZiPS): .254/.327/.428, 24.2 K%, 9.2 BB%, .173 ISO , 4.1 fWAR Scouting Report: More than just a creative Twitter/X handle, the Cubs found almost dill-sergeant-claiber consistency and production at shortstop, with the targeted approach of significantly increasing the defensive floor. Long after Jed Hoyer locked himself away in a hotel room to watch every Swanson infield play, we were introduced to a well-spoken, hard-working defensive wizard at the Friendly Confines in 2023. Entering Year 2 of his seven-year contract, the Cubs are looking for Dansby to match his production from last year, as ZiPS anticipates. Swanson will provide top-of-the-league defense at shortstop as he searches for his third straight Gold Glove. For the Cubs to find another level to this offense, Swanson will need to see some of his 2022 slugging return. Good for a top-15 finish in doubles, along with famously high numbers in the total games played column, Swanson should build on his increasing OBP and walk rate to grab his pitch and do more damage. How will Dansby outperform his projections? Off-speed damage. In 2023, pitchers started using their change-up 3.8% more often vs. Swanson, producing -7 run value for him with nearly a 40% whiff rate. For a guy whp destroys fastballs, it is not surprising to see such a stark difference. Other Options: I knocked on wood before I typed this section, as I am not superstitious, but a little stitious. Thankfully, the Cubs do have some depth at this position, with Nico Hoerner having acquitted himself nicely at short prior to Swanson's signing. In addition, we could see an advanced-bat prospect like Matt Shaw help man the infield in such a scenario. Miles Mastrobuoni is an excellent bench player for the roster to spell Swanson from time to time. Ultimately, offense from Swanson is a bonus, given his extreme defense value to this team. If there is a scenario in which Swanson’s innings need to be covered, there are creative bat-first/glove-first levers for this front office to pull. We salute you, Lieutenant Dans!

When I met Brendan on video, the simplicity of the backdrop and the passion in his voice stood out to me. However, you would be wrong to judge the “background” as a reflection of the person. What I found was a captivating scholar and a baseball savant. I found Brendan's content through CHGO. His X account and in-depth analysis provide a view of the game that I gravitated to. His analytical mind set is why I reached out to him in the first place. In addition, we share a love of Dansby Swanson. If you have not found his Nico/Dansby highlight a day on X from this off-season, I suggest you look. What’s not to like? Brendan found baseball/the Cubs similar to lots of other fans: through family. His grandfather introduced him to the beautiful game we all know and love. His grandfather had worked at Wrigley in the 1940s. Originally from Buffalo Grove, Brandon moved to Arizona. Even with an increased proximity to the Diamondbacks, the Millers retained their Cubbie blue. He described the fandom as holding an “air of importance” in his family, which led to an eagerness to participate in the conversation. However, that 2001 Diamondbacks team helped grow his fervor for the game, making a chance to meet with Luis Gonzalez a much more meaningful affair later in life. His full baptism into total Cub-dom happened when the 2002 team beat the Seattle Mariners. We reminisced on that 116 Win squad lead by Japanese phenom Ichiro Suzuki. Brandon had rationalized at the time that if the Cubs could beat a team that good, it must mean the Cubs were good! The end of the 2002 season proved a different answer, but a diehard was born. Miller cut his teeth starting the Cubs Related Podcast in 2016. He joked that his voice was not a radio voice, which I had admitted to him I was fearful of for myself as I share my intent to begin my own podcast adventure. He went to college to be the next Carrie Muskat but soon found love in academic research. He did this podcast diligently outside of his studies. One evening, he found an email from a listener named Corey Freedman, who expressed interest in joining the podcast. Corey sent Brendan a resume to "apply" for this job. Once the "formalities" were over, a partnership was born that led to 8 years of weekly podcasts. He passed some knowledge on to me on how to build with consistency. I appreciated his openness of the grind and really respected the example he set for me for my own endeavors. From Kerry Wood and Mark Prior autographs, to meeting Ron Coomer, Brendan had collected Cub items through the years. All of us have the trinkets that create a tangible representation of our fanaticism. However, a more common item that would be found in all baseball player's equipment bags was his most meaningful gift: an A2000 Baseball glove. His obsession and interest in the glove are likely how much he enjoys the Cubs infield. Being able to have glove that was the same of the infield wizards he grew to love was everything; a key connection to the game and his fandom. When you have accomplished as much as Brendan, bucket list items can be hard to find. However, when pressed, he shared a strong desire to get out to Mesa and do player interviews during Spring Training. Me too, Brendan. Me too. Looking for Brendan’s content? Tune in to the CHGO podcast each Friday or on X at @Brendan_Cubs. Thank you all for reading this offseason series. Interacting with the folks who gave me their time has been a dream come true as we met so many folks in the Cubs community. Keep me in mind for offseason 2024.

I have counted down the days until Pitchers and Catchers since I was a kid. I have tried so many different sports and activities to keep me distracted over the variable length of time between the last Cubs game and the rebirth of hope in February. It went faster for a stretch of hyper-competitive Cubs teams that have raised the bar of my fandom and have forever altered my perception on what Cubs baseball is to me. Like an explosion in the quietest of nights, the Cubs landed Craig Counsell to replace David Ross at the start of this offseason. I remember the hectic morning and complete shock as the new rolled in. This wasn't just a surprise to the fandom; it was a surprise to the media. As the days passed after the announcement, the legend of Jed Hoyer (and his silence) grew. If Jed could pull off such a move, what else could he keep secret? I look to this moment as the place where my fanaticism intersected with speculation and delusion. I dreamed up deals that could get done, scoffed at other teams who whispered the words "Shohei Ohtani", and felt my team had this super-powered silent assassin. As Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and others signed with the Dodgers and little detail of Jed's pursuits continued to come out, I found irrational cynicism waiting for me. What is Jed doing? Is the silence work, or are thoughts of high-end payroll targets truly a pipe dream? The reports shared by baseball pundits as the ink dried on megadeals for one now obscenely talented California team did not bring comfort, or clarity on the Cubs involvement. Cubs Convention was soon here, and the "Cody, Cody, Cody" chants led by players and even spurred on by Jed brought a renewed sense of optimism. Shota Imanaga signed; he had been stationed in Chicago almost without a soul knowing. The silent assassin lived again. The questions and dreams filled my mind once more. Will they move Christopher Morel for young, controllable pitching? Maybe Matt Chapman being available has shifted the market price, making that move non-viable. Well, it would only be logical for the Cubs to wait for Chapman to sign before you make that type of move. That is what this offseason has been. A series of waiting on what has felt like empty promises. This roster was one game away from postseason contention last year, but they do not feel like they have improved. However, there are still players available. The tune changes with Bellinger back in the fold. Landing Bellinger "and"--and Chapman? And Jordan Montgomery? So much is still, technically, possible--moves the needle in a division that is not strong. The farm can be used to supplement at the deadline. There is still so much hope. But as Ted Lasso has taught me: "It is the hope that kills you."