First, some assumptions. 1) the crowdsourced contract estimates at Fangraphs are correct (they're typically low for the big contracts) 2) there is $40M free cash currently available 3) reasonable backloading is allowed on FA contracts 4) The Marlins are being honest when they say Fernandez is NOT available ----------------------------------- Needs: 1) SP 2) CF 3) SP Depth 4) Bullpen Depth 5) Farm Depth ------------------------------------ The Plan: Even though SP need is #1, I'm going to fill CF first and then plan around it. Heyward at 8/$184M is my first move. I'm going to backload the deal a bit and also give him an opt-out after four years so he can hit the market again when he's 30. His 2016 salary hit will be $18M and it will ramp up like this: 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 25, 25, 25. Next I have to address SP. With $22M left in the budget, Price, Greinke, Zimmerman and Cueto are effectively out of reach if I want to address 3-5 on my list. Looking at the next tier of pitchers gives: Shark, Lackey, Gallardo, Kazmir, Iwakuma, Leake & Chen. Lackey is a prick and I don't trust Gallardo. That leaves Shark, Kazmir, Iwakuma, Leake and Chen. At this point in their careers, the last four of those guys are similar in statistical profile. Average to below strikeout rates, below average walk rates and somewhat elevated HR rates for several. The arm in this group with clear upside above the rest is Shark. He's crowdsourced at 4/$16M per. I'll backload that a bit to 14/16/16/18. Next is SP Depth. We have a full rotation at this point with Arrieta/Lester/Shark/Hendricks/Hammel. I'm actually okay with leaving Hammel in the rotation, but I really want to add depth in case of injury. The best way to do that is by adding a player with options. Yaisel Sierra is my main target here. The main comp used for his contract is Raisel Iglesias. He got a seven year contract for $23M that paid a $5M bonus up front and then cheap salaries. I'll assume something similar here and say that he'll cost us $5M in 2016. Bullpen Depth is up. I really want Darren O'Day. But I only have $3M left in the budget. So I'm going to make a couple moves at this point. I'll trade Wood and Coghlan for the best return I can get for each guy. I don't expect to get much for Wood (I'll non-tender if I can't get anything), but I'm hoping for an upside arm for Cogs. That should free up an additional $10M. I'll use $6M (in 2016) to sign O'Day, giving him 6/7/8 on his deal. To fill in for Wood in the pen, I'll sign Blevins to a $1.5M deal. That gives me Rondon/O'Day/Strop/Grimm at the back end of the pen with Blevins there as my loogy and a litany of contenders to fill the rest. Farm: Hopefully I added depth here with the Cogs & Wood trades. I have $5.5 left in the budget and I'm going to use all that on Cubans. I'll also explore what value I can get in return for Castro. If I can add a potential impact arm near the majors, I'm going to make the trade. I'll also invest his $7M salary for 2016 in IFA and consider that as part of the return on the trade. Given the situation, I'll see if creative accounting can be used to borrow his 2017 $9M salary to use on IFA this year, as well. That would give me quite a few potential impact guys in return for Castro. --------------------- So...there's the plan as of this morning. I'm sure it'll be different again tomorrow.