Nor is it happening as a result in any way of the over performance early on, which is the real point. That's the gambler's fallacy part. It is all data points. A nine-game poop show from a starter definitely has some effect on his projection going forward. Not enough to overcome all the noise, but dismissing entirely is bad too. Recency bias and status quo bias are both wrong. Who is showing status quo bias? I assume you mean me. In which case, I challenge you to show where I've made a statement that can't be backed up. It takes more than two bad starts from a pitcher for the recent results to overcome 18+ months worth of results. That is, of course, assuming there is no sign of injury, changes in stuff, etc. Which is the case here - there's no loss of velocity, movement of all the pitches for these guys are similar, etc. They've been missing their spots more frequently the past couple trips through the rotation. It is certainly something to keep an eye on. But assuming this to be anything that is a long term concern at this point is jumping the gun. Except for Hammel. He sucks.