Some Guy
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Everything posted by Some Guy
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Going with Rivero here. I wonder too if he currently has the most trade value of who's left.
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possible trade with texas?
Some Guy replied to Quakers's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
That was a very loose interest, and they have since acquired Carlos Corporan to split time with Chirinos. -
Lookin forward to the reasons people give next round on why Johnson or Underwood.
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My understanding of the "universal agreement" is that Russell has better hands and instincts than Castro, but Castro has better range and arm. As his yearly error totals show, Castro is getting steadily better at the mental stuff while Russell's athleticism is only going to diminish as he fills out his frame. I don't think it's a situation that screams out for displacing the incumbent.
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Almora needs to be notified of this outrageous snub. I'm not switching my vote to either of these pretenders.
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Why troubling? It's only true. The only reason I post about it so much is cuz people keep denying that obvious truth. That blindness is what's troubling. I wish framing didn't matter so much and that he could be good for us. Or that his badness wasn't so widely known by FOs and we could trade him for something interesting. But these tea leaves have been obvious to me since December, and market evidence has mounted in favor of my unpopular view every day since then.
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Castro SS4Lyfe. Ok maybe not forever, but there should be no eagerness to trade a proven veteran who's cheap for a long time and still getting better on both sides of the ball.
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How do you mean hits don't matter? His H, HR and K numbers say that his stuff is somehow very hard to square up. Higher level hitters will of course be better at it, but there's no reason to think his advantage relative to other pitchers will disappear. I like your love of Rivero but I don't think Edwards should be brought down to the level of a 27 year old for-sure reliever whose numbers in fewer US innings are worse.
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.377 BABIP in 210 FSL PAs. He had 50% more PAs on Oakland's high-A team and didn't do nearly as well. Of course Almora needs to become more selective to succeed, but if he does he will probably show more power than McKinney too - while being a for-sure plus CF with excellent contact ability.
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...who is 4 years older and gives up way more HRs and hits.
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Not sure yet what to think of Torres (esp how good his defense is), but I still prefer Almora to McKinney. Almora career .751 OPS, reaching a higher level, with 12% K rate and premium defense. The way the FO talks about him is just talk, sure, but it still sounds sincere and encouraging. McKinney career .784 OPS with 17% K rate and tweener OF profile. 4 months younger, but hasn't played AA yet and has less pedigree.
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Edwards' unhittability is ridiculously good. 5.3 H/9, and only 2 HRs in his whole pro career. That as a starter would be a bona fide ace. That as a reliever is still awesome.
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I don't envision anyone giving up a top-20 org prospect for the right to sink $5.7M into Wood. Mayyyybe if we eat salary. So assuming minimal trade value, I'd rather just keep him as overpaid rotation depth and relief. Glad the zeitgeist is starting to catch up with the near-worthlessness of Castillo though.
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Hamels right now for a mere $96/4 guarantee is so incredibly far preferable to waiting til next year to guarantee Sherzer $$ to one of the FAs into his late 30s. If those were our only 2 options, I would trade as much as Russell for Hamels (but not Bryant, Soler or Castro). However there is the possibility of trades for other guys - or maybe our own young pitchers emerge in a huge way - so I wouldn't necessarily pull the trigger on that trade today. I'm okay with a wait and see til July. However if it could be done right now for Baez+, I wouldn't hesitate for a second.
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http://grantland.com/features/brad-asumus-pitch-framing-dennis-eckersley/ As early as 2009, the Yankees analytics dept determined that "Jorge Posada could hit like Albert Pujols and Jose Molina could hit like Jose Molina, and Molina would still be better." They didn't get full top-down buy-in, however, trading Molina after that season. But this article is just more evidence to the pile showing that by now all teams are aware that framing is a very huge deal. Thus, the "surprising" lack of market value of Castillo, and why it was such a priority to get Ross along with Montero.
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Yet more credit given to catcher framing, and thus more evidence why Castillo's value is so negligible - as was foretold. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25564
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Villanueva getting a minor league contract to be a swingman has relevance to the trade market for $5.7M swingman Travis Wood. (In case anyone thought there was one).
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Everyone in the "competing for a spot" group has options except Parker, I think. Surprised Germen has been passed around so much if he has an option left. No one in the "one of these guys has to start" group does.
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javi baez deep concern and probably giving hope up thread
Some Guy replied to treebird's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Even if Baez can be fixed to barely acceptable levels of contact: We still need less Ks in the lineup. We still have plenty of power without him. We still have numerous other attractive IF options, such that we won't even use him at his most valuable position. So *if* he can rebuild his trade value, it seems obvious we should cash him in for something else. But first of course he has to go to AAA and not suck so bad. -
javi baez deep concern and probably giving hope up thread
Some Guy replied to treebird's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
The slash line is weak, but you can plausibly excuse that as him "working on things." But I'd hate to see what his K rate would be if he *wasn't* specifically working on not striking out. -
Out of Jackson, Wood, Wada, Doubront and Turner, there figure to be 3 spots if everyone else we're counting on stays healthy: 5th starter and bottom 2 relievers. But I think it's prudent to figure on 1 or 2 ST setbacks among our 9 core pitchers. I also don't think any of them (incl $5.7M Wood) has any trade value, but in Wood or Wada's case they seem like they'd be good relievers - which we just happen to need from the left side. Someone mentioned a return similar to what we got for Ruggiano. That's what I've been figuring we'll be able to scrounge up for Castillo, eventually, hopefully. For the pitchers I figure less than that. More likely just a waive and an eating of salary, if everyone else is healthy.
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Ha, I was just about to post that cubsinsider piece. Glad we all don't find fault with it.
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I think we have a good LHRP in either Wood or Wada (or both if Jaxon or Turner grabs a rotation spot). Overpaid for the role, sure, but they're here. Then there's Doubront, which is just whatever.
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Him working out at 3B would be the ideal, but my biggest concern is long term health. Seems like a tall guy diving around at 3B would invite back problems.
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I like Castro farther down, in more of a RBI role. Montero 2nd is a nifty idea I hadn't considered.