TheDude

Extreme philosophies either way is a bad idea. Beane gets a lot more credit than he deserves and I am glad this season has exposed it finally (though it doesn't seem to have any effect on the fervor of the Beaninites :?). High OBP is not the end all be all, and guys like Bellhorn and Wilkerson prove that by not sticking when given a starting job in several cities, and guys like Dellucci, Michaels, and Catalanatto unable to break out of platoon situations. You want guys that can get on base placed in ideal slots of the lineup, but you do also want guys that can hit, as well as speed, and power. The Mets have it right. If you want the Cubs to emulate an offensive philosophy, choose the Mets.

Good work Vance. I'll take it.

Here is the thing - what is to be gained by firing Dusty Baker right now? Anything? I wonder if the entire point of Hendry's comments was simply to let the fans know that the Cubs performance this year wasn't/isn't acceptable and that he will address it, but not with a knee-jerk reaction that has no measurable gains. Maybe this the 6-month approach to 2007. I don't want Baker back, or any of his staff. But I just don't see what an interim staff at this point gains the ballclub. I certainly don't see how a lack of firing now equates to an extension. That kind of talk smells like sour grapes.

With Hendry's comments last week, there was far too much selective reading/hearing taking place, especially on this board. Those that claim Hendry is changing his stance on Baker are wrong. Hendry never said Baker would be fired. He said he would evaluate the coaching staff. People just heard what they wanted. Baker may be safe for now, but others coaches may not be - yet to be determined.

If the White Sox make this deal and it pays off with another World Series appearance, why would Schmidt want to leave? I would think the Sox would have the upperhand in re-signing Schmidt if they look like a top 5 team for the first several years of the contract with WS potential. Sometimes that thinking doesn't pay off, but other times it does, and I think a guy like Kenny Williams would take that gamble.

I don't understand your point here...wouldn't Walker be attractive to other teams for all the same reasons you think he's attractive to keep for the Cubs?

Since when did 150 innings become enough to blow out a pitcher's arm? Watching pitch counts is one thing, but this is a little absurd. You don't think there's any reason to be careful with a pitcher who is on his way to completely destroying his previous career high in innings pitched in a year? It's not a matter of shutting him down, but how about taking some preemptive measures with a pitcher's health instead of just assuming that health is completely up to chance? You'll have to point the area in my post where I stated there is no reason to be careful with a young pitcher...I can't find it either. I'm asking how 150 IP is the new arm blowout total, especially given 200 IP the gold standard for a durable pitcher. Marshall has only eclipsed 100 pitches twice this year, and those games were 102 PC. Seems to me Dusty's staff has been pretty careful with Marshall thus far. The kid needs to build up big league arm strength and putting him in long relief right now or removing him from the rotation only hurts his development.

Since when did 150 innings become enough to blow out a pitcher's arm? Watching pitch counts is one thing, but this is a little absurd.

Not only do the Reds bullpen pitchers stink, but one of them was arrested yesterday as well. The time is right to at least inquire.

Brenly is/has been critical of a team 10-20+ games under .500, when nobody in the front office can genuinely dispute the opportunity to be critical. Stone was critical during times the club perceived itself as fighting for the division or the wildcard spot, when the front office might dispute the need for such criticism. It's likely the different seasonal situations color the receipt of critism and the correpsonding response.

I don't place but a fraction of the blame on Hendry. Like most GMs, Hendry has both good and bad transactions on his resume. The good have had a greater impact to the roster than the bad and several moves that hindsight would declare bad/mediocre/flop were actually considered good at the time (Hawkins, Garciaparra, and Remlinger as examples). But Hendry has brought in/up good talent that simply didn't work out - and that is primarily Baker's staff's fault or plain bad luck. The list of names that failed under the Baker regime but went on to success elsewhere is piling up, and only the lower minor league guys like Nolasco and Sisco are Baker independent. What was Hendry supposed to do when he supplied a talent to Baker and the talent simply didn't get playing time or proper instruction? Was Hendry at that point supposed to continue feeding Baker talent that wouldn't play, or actually get talent Baker would play? You have to figure at some point Hendry's actions became tainted by Baker's execution. You throw a Choi, Patterson, or Dubois at Baker and it doesn't stick. You throw a Jones or Pierre at Baker and it does. Get a management team that excels at youth development and plate discipline and the influence on the GM will correspondingly be felt.

Moving anyone is fine, but Hendry has proven to be totally inept when it comes to receiving valuable prospects in return for ML players. It seems that I'm a rare Hendry fan, but this is an area where he is clearly clueless. How is that a fair evaluation? Has Hendry ever traded for a top prospect? Has he ever had an outgoing player worthy of a top prospect?

I wouldn't trade any of the back 3 bullpen guys. Bullpen pitchers simply will not command upper prospects and the Cubs don't need lesser prospects right now.

He still doesn't get it. Maybe not some of the times, but he's correct here, so what is he not getting this time exactly? Prior had 2 outs with nobody on base and gave away two runs by walking consecutive batters before a couple of ordinary singles. No walks and likely no runs. later in the game, it was the same story.

That's a heck of a standard there, .380. Only a handful of lead-off hitters each year have that OBP, so .380+ is really the elite lead-off hitters around the league, not simply the good ones. Right now only Youkilis, Ichiro, and Roberts have that threshold or better as everyday players, with Freel and Carroll also above the .380 mark in limited, part-time duty.

What I find interesting is that nobody has commented on this line: Numerous folks on this board have commented on this already, and a long discussion exists. But to have Hendry see that is nice and helps disprove the blind faith theory many fans apply to him. Hopefully it goes a step further and a youth development oreinted manager is brought in.

Do I need to? How about I just look at the stats of the core team I listed? What do you know, those look pretty good, outside of a slumping Ramirez and Dempster's recent struggles. The core you listed: Lee, Howry, Eyre, Cedeno, Barrett, Jones, Prior, Marshall Ramirez and Dempster you agreed were struggling. That's 8 out of 25 spots; in other words, 17 out of 25 need to be "tweaked." That's a heck of a tweaking... Well, you forgot Zambrano and the second youth from the farm, and you included the bench, which is just a numbers pad for your point. Every team turns over the majority of its bench each year, so I do not like including the bench in "tweak" numbers. So using actual math (as opposed to fuzzy math), I listed 12/20 roster spots, leaving eight. 5/8 are pitching slots, at least one of which is likely coming from within the current team. So the reality is, aside from the bench, 2 starters, 2 bullpen guys, and 3 position players. I'm comfortable calling that a tweak. Pretty standard roster turnover in the bigs these days from year to year.

Look at the 2003 team and this year's team and tell me how many players are in common... With a nearly complete roster turnover, Hendry has done more than just tweak.

Do I need to? How about I just look at the stats of the core team I listed? What do you know, those look pretty good, outside of a slumping Ramirez and Dempster's recent struggles.

Wow. So, if Pierre continues his retched season, Hendry is gonna offer him arbritration in hopes of getting a draft pick? What happens when he accepts and gets $9M/year? Jim Hendry is a moron. This buffoonery is only going to keep setting us back. This comedy of errors is a trainwreck. Do people actually read before spinning out of control? Hendry didn't say he was offering arbitration to Pierre. A poster here made that leap, and others ran with it. It's not possible Hendry expects Pierre, in a weak FA class for CF, to get signed before arbitration time? I don't understand why there is no middle ground on this board. It's always extreme or bust. Hendry is right - the team doesn't need to be blown up. Half the position players should and will stay. Barret, Lee, Ramirez, Cedeno, and Jones are all Cubs next year. That's a solid core. LF, CF, and 2B are the changes needed. Those are tweaks, not bombs. Most of the pitching the stays. Zambrano, Marshall, (one other kid from the 5 to choose from), Howry, Eyre, Dempster all return. Likely Prior as well, though he could be moved. But that leaves 2 starters and a couple of bullpen slots. Tweaks, not hand grenades. I don't understand why Hendry is getting railed here. He is correct. What this team needs is another very good starter and a stud in the OF.

That's basically what I was trying to say :). It is difficult to say what the Cubs actually gave up, as the club is having a difficult time already trying to litmus the half-dozen young pitchers with big league potential already, and I'm not sure the prize of the trade (Nolasco) would have had opportunities here. If you're half-full kind of person, it's possible to analyze (depending on future value) an addition by subtraction value on the 3 pitchers sent to Florida. By parting with Mitre and Wellemeyer, the other young guys are being showcased and have been given the opportunities that were blocked by lesser talent, which only increases their value. The Cubs will not need Marshall, Hill, Guzman, Ryu, and Marmol. If they have increased value on any of these kids by letting them pitch this year, then that is some extra value (hopefully). I think three of those five are expendable. Losing Nolasco is a shame. But one can only hope that some of these other young arms net a young bat works out.

Contrary to the popular opinion on this board, a lot more people in baseball think like Dusty Baker than they do like any Beananite molds. That means Pierre has value at the trade deadline for any team within striking distance in need of speed and run production at the top of the order (even on reputation alone), and if the Cubs are inclined (let's hope), they will deal him for a solid B level prospect at the least. Hendry will simply have to write off the lost pitchers as a gamble that didn't work. That happens.

Here comes the BOOM! That was sweet.

I wanted Beltran several years ago when he was with KC. I thought the Cubs could have dealt Corey Patterson for him the year before he was traded to Houston. But back then folks questioned the move, stating that CP was going to equal or better Beltran's production [shrug].

Whether a team is $100+ million or not, there is an inherent cycle involved that requires youth. The Mets "reloaded", but it wasn't without the rebuild aspect of the cycle. Mineya timed the acquisition of proven veterans with the break-out of the club's best youth and that is what is required. The Cubs missed the prime timing window in 2004-2006, but they still hold several key youth roster spots for at least another year. I think they have one shot at reloading in 2007 before requiring a down year or two to rebuild. Even big market clubs have to go through the cycle, unless they jump from 100 to 130+ million. With a core of Zambrano, Prior, and Cedeno, and with one definitive veteran long-term (Lee), the Cubs do themselves a service by overhauling management and reloading for 2007. The core to build around is still pretty darn impressive, as it contains two aces strong 3-hole star, and a promising young SS.