CubsWin

I love the discussion on BABIP. Something I definitely need to learn more about. To me, I just can't get past that some pitchers are going to be more hittable than others and wouldn't that affect BABIP? Okay, so as interesting as all of that is, what does it say about whether the Cubs should keep him and hope for the best or get whatever they can for him, and if so, what should they be shooting for in return? Essentially, what's his worth? Can he be an 18 game winner with a mid 3 ERA? Should we expect at 9-8 season with an ERA in the 4s? Or somewhere in between? (Sorry, I know those aren't the most telling stats, but I grew up before sabermetrics hit the world and its still how I think...)

McNutt! He picked a helluva time to successfully adjust to AA.

I didn't even look it up. Good point. Was his luck that bad early on? Does that explain everything? Is the improved strikeout to walk rate just the poor offenses he has faced the last four games? Truly wondering...

The Smokies emphatically tie up the series with an 11-1 drubbing or should it be thumping...I'm going with thumping of West Tenn. Matt Spencer added a 3-run HR in the 8th to cap it off. It's now a best of three.

His last for starts have gone: 7.1 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K. 5.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 7 K. 7.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K. 8.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 9 K. He's 4-0 with a 0.95 ERA with 32 strikeouts against 10 walks. Now the teams he did that against weren't very good offensively (WAS, PIT, NYM & MIL) so those numbers need to be taken with a large grain of salt. But, that's what the old Z should be doing against such teams. Since returning July 31st after taking 5 weeks off presumably to deal with his emotional issues, his line is... 48.2 IP, 37 H, 10 ER, 29 BB, 43 K (5-0, 1.85). I don't know if he got diagnosed for a chemical imbalance and is on medication or what. I couldn't get any news what he did on his 5-week hiatus. Does anyone know? I still think he will be very hard to trade due to his contract, but his performance has got to be making it a little easier. GMs are sure to notice his last four starts. The question is, if he keeps up this level of performance the rest of the season, what is your confidence level in him? What would need in return to give him up? Or do you think the team should keep him?

I got no problem with any of that. I just think Smit is worthy of protection. Cut somebody and give him a spot. Now that's just based on his numbers, age and level. If I get a scouting report that says he can't cut it at the major league level, then that all goes out the window.

Yeah, he's got the harder fastball, but his control issues have hurt him. They improved a bit last season, so perhaps there's something to the fact that he was a starter and is now going full on bullpen that is working for him, but I feel safer going with youth, health and performance over what Mateo currently is bringing to the table. I honestly can't say I know much about Kyle's stuff and how it compares to Marcos's. All I have are their stats, so that's what I'm going on. As far as previous seasons, Mateo was a 21 and 22 year old in Rookie ball in the Reds organization who finally made A- by the age of 23 and pitched pretty well. Smit was an 18 year old drafted in the 5th round out of high school, did well in Rookie ball as a 19 year old (2.82 ERA, more Ks than IP, 3-to-1 K/BB ratio, good WHIP) and was promoted to A- later that year. He struggled to succeed being young for the MWL, but appears to have put it all together last year as a 22 year old in A+/AA. It just seems like the Cubs are likely to get more productive years out Smit than Mateo at this point. And Mateo's never had a season like Smit did this year. As a 25 year old last year at AA he put up a 4.07 ERA, a WHIP of 1.44, striking out just 70 while walking 43 in 97.1 innings. Smit easily beat that at the same level while being 2 1/2 years younger. The Cubs may have something in Kyle Smit. It would sting more if he got taken. Mateo may be closer to contributing at the major league level and have more overpowering stuff, but Dominican live arms with control issues who are way too old for their level aren't as rare as 5th round high schoolers who make good and put up a year like Smit did this year (10-4, 2.25, 1.64 GO/AO, 63 K/14 BB in 72 IP).

I was transfixed by the horribleness. I sat looking at the screen like DeNiro in Meet The Parents after Ben Stiller has done something really dumb.

My God, was THAT painful. I sat dumbfounded, not quite sure what I was looking at and listening to for the first 45 seconds or so, then once my brain was able to comprehend, I sat in amazement for a while shaking my head. Then I thought, well it is eastern Tennessee, so... That train of thought rambled on for a while until a snapped to when I couldn't take their singing (if you really want to call it that) one second longer. As I hastily moved my cursor to pause the video, I thought, I much longer can this possibly go on. I had had as much as my nervous system could handle and there was still 30 seconds left to go. Those 30 seconds will have to go unwatched.

If only Archer, Guyer, Chirinos and Cabrera are protected, I think Kyle Smit is the one most likely to be taken. We see pitchers, relievers especially, easily stashed away for a season. As a 22 year old, Smit went 10-4 with a 2.25 ERA between A+ and AA, striking out 63 while walking only 14 in 72 innings. He had a 1.64 GO/AO and allowed 4 HRs, all of which came in the bandboxes of the California League. Marquez Smith's lack of versatility makes him an unappealing bench player. And no one's taking him in the Rule 5 to be their starting 3B. If one more of the arms like Marcos Mateo was removed from the list, keeping Smit might not be a bad idea.

Archer left the game after striking out in the top of the 3rd. Anyone know why? Or how to find out?

I agree. I would love to hear some scouting reports on him. However, I'd call his 3-1, 2.04 second half something a little bit more hyperbolic than solid. :-)

Ramirez will likely be in Peoria. Morelli, Giansanti and Szczur are younger and better prospects so I listed them. I didn't bother with benches. And there's so much piggy-backing in Peoria and even some at Daytona from time to time that who makes the listed rotation is certainly not within my scope of knowledge. But I appreciate (and need) all of your (and anyone else's) input. :-)

True that to both Toonster and CR. And thanks for the heads up on Runey Davis. I was grasping at straws there. When you get down to Boise and the guesses at the rotations, it's hard for me to come by the necessary info to make an informed choice. Clevenger splitting time with whomever is in AAA between Chirinos and Castillo makes perfect sense. And Brenly totally deserves to be in AA. Don't know what I was thinking there. Whew, those lists are a lot...

Of course, a lot of this will depend on how guys perform in minor league spring training, instructs, winter ball and the AFL. Ages are what they would be at the start of the '11 season. Iowa C - W. Castillo (23) (Let Chirinos be the back-up in Chicago, please.) 1B - Canzler (24) 2B - Thomas (24) SS - Camp (26), Samson (23) 3B - M. Smith (26) LF - Wright (26), Adduci (25) CF - B. Jackson (22) RF - Spencer (25) (Only if Guyer breaks with the Cubs) Iowa's rotation is completely dependent on who goes north, so here goes... SP - Archer (22) SP - J. Jackson (23) SP - Carpenter (25) SP - Samardzija (26) SP - Coleman (23) Others include Atkins, Cales, Smit, Carrillo, Chen, Russell, Schlitter. Tennessee C - Clevenger (25), Reed (25) 1B - Ridling (24) 2B - LeMahieu (22) SS - Lake (21), M. Gonzalez (22) 3B - Vitters (21), Flaherty (24) LF - Borges (27) CF - Campana (24) RF - Could be Spencer if Guyer doesn't make the Cubs SP - McNutt (21) SP - Dolis (23) SP - Rusin (24) SP - Cabrera (22) SP - Raley (22) Others include Beliveau, T. Harris, Leverton, Buchter, Shafer, Lambert. Daytona C - Brenly (24) 1B - Bour (22) 2B - Watkins (21) SS - Lee (20) 3B - Cerda (20) LF - Fitzgerald (22) CF - Ha (20), Crawford (22) RF - Burke (23), Perez (23) SP - Whitenack (22) SP - Struck (21) SP - Searle (21) SP - Jung (21) SP - Antigua (20) Others include Rhee, Batista, Wallach, Y. Gonzalez, Lorick, Morla, Keefe, Latham. Peoria C - Gibbs (22) 1B - R. Jones (23), Cuneo (22) 2B - LePage (22) SS - Alcantara (19), Soto (21) 3B - Harrington (22), B. May (23) LF - Morelli (20) CF - Giansanti (22) RF - Szczur (21) SP - Simpson (21) SP - Kirk (20) SP - Greathouse (20) SP - Ebinger (22) SP - R. Lopez (20) Others include Kurcz (20), Beeler (21), Loosen (22), Suarez (21), Serrano (23). Boise C - Burruel (19) 1B - McAloose (23) 2B - P.C. Chen (19) SS - Darvill (19) 3B - Geiger (19) LF - R. Davis (22) CF - Na (19) RF - Batista (19) SP - B. Wells (18) SP - A. Reed (19) SP - W.L. Wang (20) SP - T.A. Wang (20) SP - Hartman (18) SP - M. Perez (21) And many more...

Samardzija's babip is unsustainably low, but I think tonight's performance has a lot to do with the stadium he was pitching in, too.

It is time to thank Outshined_One and California Raisin for their tireless efforts all season long bringing us free of charge the box scores and pitching matchups among lots of well informed opinions on Cubs prospects. Thank you, guys. You make it easy to follow the Cubs system. One stop shopping.

Except younger and better.

Chirinos is sick. 4-for-5 with a HR and 3 RBI so far. Both Reed and Greathouse have started off well.

JayJax with a good night so far. 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 3 K/2 BB. 65 Pitches, 40 of them strikes. 4 GO/6 FO. Good pitching night all around. Dolis's peripherals weren't all that great, but he allowed 2 runs in 6 innings. That's a quality start. Cabrera's night has already been mentioned. His best effort yet. Roberto Lopez went 3.2 allowing 1 run (earned), 3 hits, 1 walk and 1 strikeout. Here's hoping Austin Reed and Cam Greathouse can keep this going.

Wow, is that an awesome report. AZ Phil isn't prone to being overly positive, is he? From what I know he is a greatly respected source.

by virtue of his closer proximity to the majors, lake wins by default Also, Lake is doing it in the biggest pitcher's league in the minors. I jokingly meant the event, the HR or the walk, which one was more exciting. Home runs are the most exciting thing in baseball just about and walks are the most boring, but when Junior Lake walks, it's something to get excited about. And, yes, Lake is by far the more exciting prospect. I'd be even more excited if Ha walked. He's allergic to them. I sneezed when I read that. Robinson Chirinos has done it again. 3-run HR in the 2nd in Omaha. Just call this guy up already.

by virtue of his closer proximity to the majors, lake wins by default Also, Lake is doing it in the biggest pitcher's league in the minors. I jokingly meant the event, the HR or the walk, which one was more exciting. Home runs are the most exciting thing in baseball just about and walks are the most boring, but when Junior Lake walks, it's something to get excited about. And, yes, Lake is by far the more exciting prospect.

Jae-Hoon Ha hit his 7th HR of the season as a 19 year old in Low A and Junior Lake has gotten his 32nd walk in 356 ABs as a 20 year old in High A (Last year he walked 18 times in 463 at bats). I don't know which one I'm more excited about...

http://firstinning.com/players/Christopher-Archer-a/ Thanks, man. You can always count on TT.