CubsWin

Alcantara projects to be a total package of tools and performance, with the ceiling of an all-star-caliber center fielder. His swing is balanced and works well despite his long limbs, and he should add more power to what already grades as plus when he fills out his frame. With instincts and confidence in the field Alcantara could become a plus defender with a plus arm, giving him a good chance to stay in the middle of the outfield.

Wow. IF that happens, he's a steal for a couple months of Rizzo.

I mean, since we're still talking about that whole non-convo: Was calling Triantos positionless really like...effective parody? The joke doesn't work within the context it exists!

We're not still talking about it. Some people simply didn't want to read the whole, big, long pointless thing. I don't blame them.

 

 

Having him, Leeper, Roberts, and to a lesser extent Hudson all hanging out at Iowa to open next year is an underrated boon to our short term competitive hopes.

I'd include Brandon Hughes and Cayne Ueckert on that list.

Ed Howard who over his last 108 PAs hit .303/.346/.434 against full season pitchers

idk only mustering a .780 OPS in your absolute best possible subset on the strength of a .412 babip is not the strong endorsement it seems

Agreed. That statement was to make a point that you can pick apart or build up any of these teenage prospects at this point, but that we simply don't know enough about any of them to make a definitive argument about how good they are. The whole Triantos breakdown was tongue-in-cheek.

To say Triantos is a positionless less prospect is laughable.

I agree, even though I didn't exactly say that (it was positionless infielder). It was tongue-in-cheek. Another poster had called a teenage prospect a positionless outfielder, so I called Triantos a positionless infielder to make a point. They're both absurd criticisms. How can someone be a positionless outfielder or infielder? Simply because he hasn't locked down a specific spot as a teenager? Triantos played 3B, SS and 2B. Does that make him positionless? Of course not. The other guy played RF and some LF. That doesn't make him positionless either.

That Caissie quote is from an article published over a year ago (Sept 3, 2020) before he was traded to the Cubs and had any professional training. If you're trying to support an argument that his defense is terrible, you may want to find better evidence than that. He may very well wind up playing LF, 1B or DHing, but this has little to do with whether or not one can say with any certainty that Triantos is a top 5 or top 6 prospect in the Cubs org (or whatever you're saying he is now).

 

We don't know how much a 19-year-old OFer will improve his defense over the next 2-3 years. And that's my point. There's so much that is unproven about most of these teenagers at the lower levels that a variety of opinions can be supported, including yours.

 

If you'd like to believe that your opinions are the right opinions, that's okay with me.

 

A few nitpicks:

 

- Just ftr: Caissie was already receiving professional training at the time having both signed with an org and being put on their 60 last summer.

- Since he's already playing LF, split time between there and DH for Myrtle Beach, I would say it's *likely* he ends up at one of those bat heavy positions. Obviously this puts more pressure on the offense to translate, and he

- I think it's fair to say there's a good amount of certainty already that Triantos is a better prospect than Caissie. I don't know how that fits into the rankings so much, but yeah I'd say the younger player higher up the defensive spectrum with a more polished offensive approach should be seen as a better prospect

 

Of course we don't *know* how much Caissie's defense will improve, but realistically how many players move up the defensive spectrum? That's a huge part of the game in piling up these SS prospects in the first place. It's not so that they all can end up ML SS prospects, but because the range of positive outcomes includes stars from every position on the field

You can't nitpick something I'm not saying. But if you feel the need for some reason, go right ahead.

Totally fair, but that's also my point.

 

I could easily pick apart some of the criticisms you made of those other guys. Errors in the DSL? Made not having a projectable body? Positionless OFer? We can all do the same thing with anybody on the list except Davis.

 

TBF it's less about the league the errors came in than the errors themselves. There's definitely star SSs who are error prone these days, but it's guys like Tatis and Bichette Jr. who are constant candidates to move

 

Caissie's OF defense is really bad, he looked at least a little whelmed in MB at the speed of the game and got played a few times out there. Here's what he said after the 2020 draft:

 

While Caissie has his work-from-home routine under control, the one aspect of his game that will be the most difficult to improve until he can see some game action again is also the tool he feels needs the most work -- his defense.

 

“Fielding, I just need to power shag, because I’m indoors most of the year and I never see pro fly balls,” Caissie said. “The only time I’ve ever seen a pro fly ball was with Team Canada, and that was only on one trip, so it wasn’t that much exposure. But when I go down to the AZL or wherever I go down to, I’ll be able to power shag and work on it every single day. That’s when I feel like I’ll improve the most is because these American kids are outside every day and I’m inside for eight months a year.”

 

Made's got room to fill out up top, has definitely added some (good) weight since signing especially in the lower body, but he'd be the shortest starting SS in the MLs if that were the case right now at his listed 5'10." Obviously that's not the end of the world, I've made a comp to Orlando Cabrera before and still don't hate it, mostly don't see a high ceiling hitter unless he sells out defensively to be more like Triantos offensively (which is easier said than done)

That Caissie quote is from an article published over a year ago (Sept 3, 2020) before he was traded to the Cubs and had any professional training. If you're trying to support an argument that his defense is terrible, you may want to find better evidence than that. He may very well wind up playing LF, 1B or DHing, but this has little to do with whether or not one can say with any certainty that Triantos is a top 5 or top 6 prospect in the Cubs org (or whatever you're saying he is now).

We don't know how much a 19-year-old OFer will improve his defense over the next 2-3 years. And that's my point. There's so much that is unproven about most of these teenagers at the lower levels that a variety of opinions can be supported, including yours.

If you'd like to believe that your opinions are the right opinions, that's okay with me.

Triantos - positionless infielder without top notch defensive skills, put up great numbers in 109 PAs, but they came against rookie ball level pitching. He is almost exactly one year younger than Ed Howard who over his last 108 PAs hit .303/.346/.434 against full season pitchers that, like Triantos, were almost all older than him, but Howard plays stellar defense at a premium position.

 

To pick this apart:

 

- Being positionless as a teenaged SS is a whole different world from being positionless as a teenaged COF. Like "positionless" for Triantos is to slide over to 2B or 3B depending on his mobility and arm strength (and he could hit the mid-90s on the mound so probably it's a strength for his defense) with COF/1B being the furthest down fallback options

- He faced rookie ball pitching as an 18 YO newly drafted HSer, this is normal at worst and definitely not a knock particularly with such a strong showing

- Not being on par with Ed Howard in this system isn't really a knock or at least shouldn't be seen as one

 

Agreed that some excitement should be tempered over just 109 PAs, but it's enough to get a good read on his already reportedly strong plate approach and in between also showed some usable game power as one of the younger players in the org at an age and experience appropriate level. Also this rookie showing came off a dominant showcase circuit the Cubs clearly had eyes on, translated right away from what we were told he'd be able to do which. The basic profile both offensively and defensively isn't crazy different from guys like Nick Yorke or Anthony Volpe, nominal HS SS prospects with outstanding hit tools and enough power to be interesting who came into the pros swinging, and both went in the first first round. Also notable is they paid 2nd round pick Triantos more than they paid 2019 24th overall pick Ryan Jensen. He's a lock to open next year, barring injury, at the lowest full season level and will probably swing between 2B, SS, and 3B on that roster, something most of the same aged guys of similarly high amateur status can't definitively say today

 

It'll be close and I'll proooobably have him just outside the top 5, but I think he's one of the prospects in the system there's more confidence around than others

Totally fair, but that's also my point.

I could easily pick apart some of the criticisms you made of those other guys. Errors in the DSL? Made not having a projectable body? Positionless OFer? We can all do the same thing with anybody on the list except Davis.

The Cubs rankings are pretty fun that 2-11 on everyone’s lists are probably all different. I’ll throw out there that I have Triantos 8th on my personal list as of today. I still need to ask around about a few prospects, but that’s probably pretty close to where he’ll sit with my final ranking this winter. If you have him in your top 5, there’s nothing outrageous about it.

I’ll be, almost assuredly the “high guy” on Kevin Made.

 

I’ve used the Yorke comp before and others are now as well. It’s not unreasonable to see Triantos finish next year at Hi-A and in the latter part of a Top 100 this time next year. That’s the high end of projections, but the skills are there.

Yeah, it's definitely an interesting system right now. In my 30+ years of following Cubs prospects, I don't think I've ever seen it deeper and less defined.

Triantos - positionless infielder without top notch defensive skills, put up great numbers in 109 PAs, but they came against rookie ball level pitching. He is almost exactly one year younger than Ed Howard who over his last 108 PAs hit .303/.346/.434 against full season pitchers that, like Triantos, were almost all older than him, but Howard plays stellar defense at a premium position.

I'm not saying you're wrong to put Triantos in your top 5. I'm not saying that at all. I'm saying you can diminish Triantos' profile like you did the other guys (relatively small sample size, worse competition, not outstanding defensive ability, not a premium position) and still make a valid argument for ranking him however you like. And I compared him to a guy many are down on because of meaningless full season numbers.

The fact of the matter is, outside of Davis, we don't know enough about any of these prospects to definitively place them in the Cubs top 5 and be "right" about it. And thus, you can make a valid argument for about 13 guys being in the top 5 right now. It all depends on what characteristics you place more value on in your assessment process.

And the really good news is that the system is much deeper than that. We could debate who makes the Cubs top 20 much less what order they'd be in.

I just listed 13 names all with a viable argument to be listed in the top 5. Add in the previous top 10 guys who didn't get a chance to play much/at all this year (Marquez, K. Franklin, Amaya, R. Thompson), other guys who took large steps forward this season (Velazquez, Nwogu, Aliendo), other solid in-season additions (Kilian, Vizcaino, Espinoza, Canario) or maybe you're high on some more pure scouting plays (Gray, C. Franklin, Mena) or some previous top 10 (call them "post-hype" if you like) guys (C. Morel, Strumpf, Roederer) and you've got 30 guys for 20 spots.

If you want to talk top 30, maybe you think some relievers should be added to the discussion (Leeper, Carraway, Ueckert, Kobos, Roberts) or some recent IFA signings (Ballesteros, P. Ramirez, R. Quintero) or some older, stuff pitchers who need refinement (Sanders, Bain). Now you've got 40 names for 30 spots.

The point is the Cubs system is deep and debatable. The order we choose to put these guys in is fairly arbitrary. So many possibilities with so many questions left to be answered that how they're ranked is up to what characteristics you value and who you believe in.

Yay or nay to Triantos being a top 5 prospect in the system? I vote yay

 

Plenty have fallen sans Davis to put Triantos in the top 5.

Enough guys have also risen/been added to put Triantos outside the top 5. I think you can make a solid argument for several prospects to be in the Cubs top 5 after Brennen Davis. Triantos certainly is one of them, but not to the clear exclusion of others like Cristian Hernandez, Reggie Preciado, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, DJ Herz, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ryan Jensen, Kevin Made, Yohendrick Pinango and even Jordan Wicks and Ed Howard.

It all depends on how much value you put on performance at higher levels, defense at premium positions and how a player fared in his last 100 PAs. I can make a strong argument for putting Triantos in the top 5 right now. But I can also make strong arguments for any of the other players mentioned.

I'm in the minority here but Caleb Kilian is probably the one I'm most excited about.

 

As a pro - 100.2IP 67H 11BB 113K

 

Back end starter is the dream? Nah.

We may still be a minority here, but I'm in it with you...

Burl Carraway with only one walk in his last four outings, covering 5 innings. 8 strikeouts over those outings.

 

It is not particularly impressive, but with his stuff we all knew that when his command got up to "adequate" he was gonna start moving fast. This might be a sign that's happening.

Man, that would be a nice development.

 

At the major league level, Steele and Thompson have shown growth (along with Nance, Wisdom and Ortega). We've seen Jensen and Herz take steps forward in the minors along with a nice list of relievers. It'd be really nice to have 1 or 2 more upside arms do the same in the 2nd half.

 

I'll settle for Carraway and Cam Sanders settling in and starting to shut guys down. Also, let's have Kohl Franklin show up, stay healthy and dominate, and Caleb Kilian keep doing what he's been doing in AA for the Smokies.

 

Is that too much to ask...?

Ortega is 30 years old.

Yes, and Wisdom and Nance are right around there too. Your point?

Burl Carraway with only one walk in his last four outings, covering 5 innings. 8 strikeouts over those outings.

 

It is not particularly impressive, but with his stuff we all knew that when his command got up to "adequate" he was gonna start moving fast. This might be a sign that's happening.

Man, that would be a nice development.

At the major league level, Steele and Thompson have shown growth (along with Nance, Wisdom and Ortega). We've seen Jensen and Herz take steps forward in the minors along with a nice list of relievers. It'd be really nice to have 1 or 2 more upside arms do the same in the 2nd half.

I'll settle for Carraway and Cam Sanders settling in and starting to shut guys down. Also, let's have Kohl Franklin show up, stay healthy and dominate, and Caleb Kilian keep doing what he's been doing in AA for the Smokies.

Is that too much to ask...?

Keegan went 3IP, 0H, 4K, 1BB, 0R

 

Not a bad start to getting stretched.

Piggy-back that with Steele's last AAA start and you get:

8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K.

That'll work. We haven't seen much piggy-backing in the majors, but I don't see a clear downside to the idea. Am I missing a good reason not to one guy start and pitch 4-5 innings and follow him up with another that finishes the game off?

The Cubs have signed two $1 million IFA catchers (Ballesteros - $1.2 million, Altuve - $1 million) over the past two seasons. Due to Covid, Altuve didn't get to play in games last year, so this is the first we've seen of both of them. In their first two weeks of game action they have combined to go:

19 G, 71 PA (55 AB), 17 H, 4 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 14 BB (19.7%), 16 K (22.5%), .309/.521/.490.

Not bad, but they're just the early returns. Interesting to note, Altuve has yet to play C in his 9 games. He's primarily played 3B. The Cubs signed two other catchers in this last IFA class (Freddy Montenegro and Carlos Ramos) who are both primarily playing C. The slash line for the 4 of them reads:

.325/.452/.506

Collectively, they've thrown out 31% of would be base-stealers.

 

I *think* this is good news? He'd probably be 60 Day'd if he wasn't slated to come back soon ish?

All we can concretely say that it means is that the Cubs reserve the right to bring him back some time after 7 days and (maybe) before 60. It also means they don't need to open a spot on the 180 man limit immediately. But at least there's some movement with his status, so that's... interesting.

Ethan Hearn and Jordan Nwogu are continuing their (possible) 2nd half breakouts.

Nwogu hit his 6th HR in a 5-run 2nd inning. That's his 4th HR in his last 14 games. After OPSing below .500 in the first 2 months of the season (28 games), he's OPSing over .850 in July (19 games).

Hearn has 2 HRs so far tonight bringing his season total to 4, 3 of which have come in the last 4 games. Like Nwogu, Hearn OPSd below .500 in May and June (28 games) and has broken out in July (12 games) slashing .265/.350/.471 heading into tonight in which he's thus far 2-for-2 with 2 dongs.

Here's hoping their play in July thus far isn't an aberration and they're actually beginning to fulfill their potential...

..Ethan Roberts kept killing it last night too, another perfect inning with a couple Ks

 

Morel’s turning out to be a decent prospect himself, something I’m not sure happens in most orgs

 

Roberts numbers are pretty amazing, even if the reliever sample size is small. Seems he looks not only possible but probable to get some big-league opportunity. And given that he's not a wildman, it seems variably probable that he'll be good. Possible that he'll be excellent?

 

Morel, with his 2-HR day his OPS is up to .730, and he's still hanging in north of the Mendoza line, .205. It will be interesting whether he'll ever get much better in terms of contact and batting average? If he improves some, has a chance to maybe be analogous to Marisnick? Good athlete/good-defense low-average athlete with power? Or maybe like Ian Happ, good power, good walks, low batting average guy, some positional flexibility, although Morel would be RH versus Happ as the switch hitter.

 

Roberts is a kinda nice example of an underslot signability draft pick who still was a prospect, and is working out well even if the bonus wasn't that big? Roberts was in the Rohderer draft class, 4th round signed for $130K, >$300K below slot. So only $5K more than a 3rd-day slot pick.

-Reminder to myself. I sometimes forget that 2nd-day underslot picks can still be more than just underslot signability guys; they may be pool-savers, but they may still perhaps be prospects too?

 

Watkins (9th) and Chavers (7th) both signed for 3rd day slot ($125K); Spence only $10K above that ($135K); and Opitz in round 8 didn't even get what the 3rd-day college picks get ($90K). Interesting that he wasn't confident he'd be able to get a $125K deal on Day 3..

I've never thought of it this way but the MLB draft is clearly about finding players with a poor sense of (literal) self-worth.

Morel is only half the prospect. He only hit one hr today.

Christopher saw your post and said hold my beer...