It should be a lot lower of a chance than that. Actually, it's a bit over 1/6, given the possibly bad stats (40% chance of one succeeding) I saw Yes but I'm assuming that 1/6 is for a simple 1 time try. Getting a 2-pt conversion two times in a row multiplys the chances to a much less likely ratio. I don't remember the exact formula but it is not simply the percentage of all the 2-pt tries added up. There is some sort of formula that multiples it for when it has to happen twice in a row. an individual try has a 40% chance of succeeding. .4 squared is .16. .16*6=.96, so it's a little more than 1/6