TheGrinch

Like so.

I have an idea. Whenever Deuce puts up a Greene non-park adjusted stat, we just type "PETCO" in response and quote it over and over again, GEOVANY SOTO style. That should get us to 300 fairly quick. Same applies if he posts a OBP or BA stat and we just reply "OPS"

I think this is an excellent question to ask and what could be the first step to quantifying situational hitting. Instead of weighting all ABs the same, you could weight a BB with no one on base the same as a 1B for that particular AB. Maybe a HR will have a proportionally greater coefficient applied than a 2B or 3B when there are two outs as opposed to no outs. Baseball players DO change their approach at the plate depending on the score of the game, the inning, the number of outs, whos hitting behind them, what the count is, and so on. I'd imagine how effectively someone changes their approach could also be accounted for in a catch-all WINS created stat (as opposed to runs created stat) with enough data...and an insane amount of number crunching and research.

First: You can tinker with them, and other things have been developed, linear weights. Then again, EqR can be broken down into linear weights if you want to. Linear weights basically represent that each event has a specific run value. Off the top of my head it's something like this: R = .5*1B + .8*2B + 3B + 1.4*HR +.33*BB -.25 OUT. Multiplying these three by 4 results in: 4RC = 1.3 BB + 2 1B + 3.2 2B + 4 3B + 5.6 HR - Out....which is very very close to Raw without the outs. Second: Basically something like OBP + SLG. If you ignore the denominator and add just the top half of the fractions of OPS you get BB + HBP + 2*1B + 3*2B + 4*3B + 5*HR. OPS is actually fit better by 1.6*OBP+SLG, but they just put all of the 1.6ish term into BB and HBP. They then added more bases to the top. So it's not all that different than the weights for OPS. Clay Davenport came up with them by himself, I believe. Thanks. Getting back to the linear weights you mentioned, I can understand the logic of choosing the weights applied to each event, but I don't understand why these weights have not been further statistically analyzed to see how accurate they really correlate to runs scored. What I mean is, is it God's honest truth that a HR is 1.4 times as valuable as a 3B? Could a study prove its closer to 1.47? They seem like a pretty logical point to start out at, but judging by the values it seems they haven't been studied in depth to find the optimum weights.

The point was...the "5" isn't always a 5. If you were in the cNL, it was 5.2 and if in japan it was 4.9. So yeah, there is a more accurate variable to use than 5, and it is used. I guess we could give that variable a name instead of referring to it as a constant..even if it is constant for all players in the same league. Calling it "5" is confusing, and maybe that's how BP intended it to be.

I've got that vid saved on my computer. I'll email it to ya.

Any engineer/mathematician would laugh at the statement that unit less numbers aren't allowed or are somehow bad. Excellent post. I never looked closely at how most of the stats are generated and assumed that the stat guys had a handle on this...but some of the coefficients do sometimes seem arbitrary, and maybe rightly so for the reasons stated in one of your previous replies. It seems there might still be some room for some improvement. There's LOTS of room for improvement in the quantitative analysis of baseball, but it sure does beat the living tar out of subjective evaluations. Agreed completely. I guess I just imagined it was closer to "truth" than it actually is. That's one of the problems IMO, many are not looking for the truth. Many are trying to create models that approximate the truth then when the model disagrees with the true value they criticize reality and blame luck instead of looking for why or where the model went wrong. When dealing with outcomes that deal with chance or apparently partly random outcomes as well as trends and probabilities, it can be hard to tell if sampling error or model error caused the discrepancy. But it isn't impossible to distinguish between the two.

Any engineer/mathematician would laugh at the statement that unit less numbers aren't allowed or are somehow bad. Excellent post. I never looked closely at how most of the stats are generated and assumed that the stat guys had a handle on this...but some of the coefficients do sometimes seem arbitrary, and maybe rightly so for the reasons stated in one of your previous replies. It seems there might still be some room for some improvement. There's LOTS of room for improvement in the quantitative analysis of baseball, but it sure does beat the living tar out of subjective evaluations. Agreed completely. I guess I just imagined it was closer to "truth" than it actually is.

Any engineer/mathematician would laugh at the statement that unit less numbers aren't allowed or are somehow bad. Excellent post. I never looked closely at how most of the stats are generated and assumed that the stat guys had a handle on this...but some of the coefficients do sometimes seem arbitrary, and maybe rightly so for the reasons stated in one of your previous replies. It seems there might still be some room for some improvement. Two questions, here's the first: Has BP or anyone else done a historical statistical study to see if tinkering with coefficients used to calculate EqA can create a better correlation to runs scored? Second: How did the coefficients that were chosen for the stat come to be chosen? Was there a vote at BP or did one individual decide on the weight of each outcome and everyone agreed it was pretty close?

Nothing funny at all about the idea of Dempster pitching 200 innings for us this year. :banghead:

his stats are translated from the Nagoya Dome in the Central League to Wrigley Field in the 2007 National League. Awesome. That takes a whole lot of calculatin'. Not to be a downer or anything and I'm sure it has been said before, but the projected stats from Fuku don't seem that much better from what I would expect in a full season of Murton at the plate. oh I don't know. what's 50 points of slugging and 40 points of obp worth these days? 11.3 million a year? (Not that the gap in OPS will really be that great this season if Murton gets regular playing time somewhere)

What if it is my opinion that you did indeed consider him in your SS rankings?

his stats are translated from the Nagoya Dome in the Central League to Wrigley Field in the 2007 National League. Awesome. That takes a whole lot of calculatin'. Not to be a downer or anything and I'm sure it has been said before, but the projected stats from Fuku don't seem that much better from what I would expect in a full season of Murton at the plate.

Are those Fukudome projections based solely on the switch from Japan to the US on average for any player or did it adjust for park factors as well? Because judging by some of the footage of Fukudome at his home park, he was playing in a blue version of Petco.

Yes.

Is that a challenge? I used to play a LOT online before neteller went donkdown...if I claim to have seen a billion poker hands and not know how to calculate EV or know what it means, will I get run out of the room?

Your hitting is quite optimistic. Those aren't career years from any of those players scratch maybe ARam and I HAVE to predict a good year from Soto. I just have to. I do think the hitting will be much better this year, and that the pitching over preformed last year save Zambrano. Optimistic sure...but not overly so. EDIT: maybe I have Pie, ARam and Lee's OBP too high. Lee would have a career year in BA and OBP, and far better than anything other than his 2005 season. Ramirez and Soriano would have career highs in SLG. Pie would hit for more power than Lee (ISOP). That's right. Mark it down. I guess I could have put three year splits for every player, but that wouldn't be any fun, would it? As far as ISOP...Lee and Pie's ISOP the last three years have been eerily similar. Sure, Lee's slg% was low, but like I said, I wanted to spice up my predictions. I think his wrist is going to hamper his power for the rest of his career and I ran with it. Also...thanks for reminding me that Lee's 2005 season was in fact a year that is included in his career.

hes going to get 15-20 HRs minimum and 40-50 doubles. give him a .300 BA (pretty likely) and 70-80 walks (pretty likely) that makes him comparable to JD Drew in 2006..which was a .300 EqA. and Fred Lynn (career .297 EqA). He has not hit once in MLB and you just say all this will happen.. Amazing... Im not saying he's going to hit that. I'm saying it's the most likely line of production from him. There's a difference. A lot of the arguments here remind me of the arguments that go on at online poker tables, but with less cursing.

This IS Meph's alter-ego, right? It is more likely than the alternative.

Your hitting is quite optimistic. Those aren't career years from any of those players scratch maybe ARam and I HAVE to predict a good year from Soto. I just have to. I do think the hitting will be much better this year, and that the pitching over preformed last year save Zambrano. Optimistic sure...but not overly so. EDIT: maybe I have Pie, ARam and Lee's OBP too high.

I predict these predictions are unpredictably predictable. Lee: .341/.435/.511 DeRosa .271/.364/.430 Theriot .275/.315/.312 Ramirez: .300/.370/.580 Soriano .281/.330/.570 Pie .270/.330/.457 Fukodome .290/.390/.450 Soto .295/.340/.469 Zambrano 1.20/3.40 Lilly 1.42/4.33 Hill 1.24/3.60 Marquis 1.60/5.91 Dempster 1.55/5.67 Lieber 1.40/4.55 Marmol 1.05/ 1.96 (hits the DL early) Howry 1.20/3.50 Wood 1.35/3.50

Anybody we know, or were you strictly a lurker? I was a regular at that joint in '01. Pretty much the only people I remember are you, NCCubFan...and that's about it as most seem to have changed their names. I never posted much, but when I did I was DiceMan. Played in a few yahoo fantasy leagues with people. Trying to make my comeback now. I don't remember you being in any of the fantasy leagues I was in, but I do remember you being in a Sporting News league I was in before I started participating in Yahoo. Some of the people from that league were Tehmpus (he organized it), Cubman15, BigbadB, and teencubfan. I believe Hosak was in that one, too. THAT was the one. I totally forgot about that. It ran on a point system instead of roto. I really liked that set-up. If I remember it was free that year, and afterwards had a fee. Maybe I did take second afterall.

Oh, well then maybe it was CubCuse. I'll just accuse everyone of having played fantasy baseball with me until someone sticks or at least isn't sure. All I'm sure about is NC was in it and I took second. EDIT: Just went back and checked on Yahoo archives...I actually took third. Oh well.

Anybody we know, or were you strictly a lurker? I was a regular at that joint in '01. Pretty much the only people I remember are you, NCCubFan...and that's about it as most seem to have changed their names. I never posted much, but when I did I was DiceMan. Played in a few yahoo fantasy leagues with people. Trying to make my comeback now. There's still quite a few more posting here from those days, but yeah, even I have a tough time keeping up with the name changes. I'm sure you are aware that Tim was SanClementeFan. Actually I didn't know that. I think he was also in the fantasy league with NC. Those were the days. I believe I was banned from Cubs.com for bumping "If Zambrano starts..." but that's only a guess as it seems people were banned for mere punctuation errors. Actually, I want to go back and see if that thread still lives. Good ol' Hogcard.

Anybody we know, or were you strictly a lurker? I was a regular at that joint in '01. Pretty much the only people I remember are you, NCCubFan...and that's about it as most seem to have changed their names. I never posted much, but when I did I was DiceMan. Played in a few yahoo fantasy leagues with people. Trying to make my comeback now.