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davearm2

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Everything posted by davearm2

  1. davearm2
    Were you adjusting based on your flawed concepts of "normal BABIP" and the ability of a park to affect BABIP? Applying the same BABIP to home and road numbers removes the park effect. The BABIP targets were chosen for various reasons. .300 is roughly the MLB average for non-pitchers. .310 is what Fangraphs tells us is the top of the "normal" range. .320 I chose arbitrarily. .334 I got to by adding .140 to his career LD%, as is the convention for determining a "luck-neutral" BABIP.
  2. davearm2
    I wouldn't exactly call it short sighted. His inability to see that if we build the team the way he wants that we will absolutely suck isn't shortsighted? It's absurdly conservative, needlessly frugal, and no doubt, stubborn. But I don't see how putting all his focus on developing from within while punting the next several years is short sighted. I don't believe the Cubs ought to put all their focus on developing from within while punting the next several years. I just happen to think Pujols and Fielder are going to be huge busts. Extrapolating that to other free agents (or all free agents, as seems to be the case) is wrong. Obviously I also don't think Headley is ever going to be the hitter some folks expect he would be, if he only got traded.
  3. davearm2
    Overly simplistic how?
  4. davearm2
    *Slow clap* Oh, but he'll say you can't read because he DOES want the Cubs to sign truly elite players to affordable deals when the time is just right. Y'know, those guys. I am already expecting him to stop reading my post after the first line, only respond to my sarcasm (barely), and ignore the rest of my post. You've given me nothing to respond to. I've explained my points, and addressed counterpoints that people have made, throughout this thread.
  5. davearm2
    Actual BABIP: .339 What do you think Headley's OPS will be if he's traded to the Cubs? Just give me a number. Explain how you got there if you wish.
  6. davearm2
    No it's not. Those abilities would manifest themselves at PetCo as well, if they existed. Is his BABIP above the average at PetCo? I thought we agreed average BABIP isn't relevant. Based on LD%, Headley is dramatically under-performing his expected BABIP at home, and dramatically over-performing on the road. Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342 Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328 Why isn't Headley using his unique skills that allow him to outperform his expected BABIP on the road when playing at home? That discrepancy can't be all park factor. stop dilly dallying and tell us your secret method for fixing the numbers I added or subtracted hits as needed to hit the expected BABIP target (.310, .320, .334 etc), keeping ABs constant. I adjusted 2bs and 3bs as needed to keep their percentage of total hits constant. I did this separately to the home and road splits. Then I added the adjusted home and road numbers together to compute the expected career line.
  7. davearm2
    Headley is neither slow nor fast, so we should expect him to be in the fat part of the bell curve. Reading is fundamental. Outliers are expected to revert to the mean. There isn't anything specific to Headley's skillset that would cause us to expect him to outperform the LD% + .140 rule going forward. Ichiro, yes. Headley, no.
  8. davearm2
    No it's not. Those abilities would manifest themselves at PetCo as well, if they existed. Is his BABIP above the average at PetCo? I thought we agreed average BABIP isn't relevant. Based on LD%, Headley is dramatically under-performing his expected BABIP at home, and dramatically over-performing on the road. Home LD% 20.2% = expected BABIP .342 Road LD% 18.8% = expected BABIP .328 Why isn't Headley using his unique skills that allow him to outperform his expected BABIP on the road when playing at home? That discrepancy can't be all park factor.
  9. davearm2
    Given the sample size involved, how can you realistically call that an anomaly? Because everything we know about BABIP suggests it is an anomaly. You do realize some guys can maintain a much higher than "average" babip, right? The LD% + .120 or .140 or whatever you use can't be universally applied to everybody. Doesn't work that way. Yes, a large part of players will fall into the bell shaped part of the curve, but you've got slow guys and fast guys and other strange cases who are clear outliers. You still haven't said how you know Headley isn't an outlier. Headley is neither slow nor fast, so we should expect him to be in the fat part of the bell curve.
  10. davearm2
    Given the sample size involved, how can you realistically call that an anomaly? Because everything we know about BABIP suggests it is an anomaly. Some players' abilities are such that they'll lean toward having higher BABIP's than "average," just as others have skillsets that will lead to lower ones. After a certain amount of PAs, it's pretty fair to peg a player as one of those guys. No it's not. Those abilities would manifest themselves at PetCo as well, if they existed.
  11. davearm2
    YOU'RE ACTUALLY SAYING "hmm, that road avg. doesn't look quite right, let's arbitrarily just take away 15% of his hits" Except it's not arbitrary at all. It's specifically aimed at correcting an anomaly in the data. That's the whole point, actually... trying to see what Headley would be if he was neither lucky nor unlucky. It may be aimed at correcting it, but you're way off because you either didn't use a specific methodology or just failed to explain it. Therefore, yes, it's completely arbitrary. How did you come up with the numbers? How do you know Headley isn't a guy who can sustain a .340-.350 babip in a relatively neutral park? I did use a specific methodology, but it is true I didn't explain it fully because it'd be exceedingly boring and tedious. If you'd like me to, I would be happy to. I don't know of any reason to believe Headley will deviate from usual BABIP trends going forward.
  12. davearm2
    Given the sample size involved, how can you realistically call that an anomaly? Because everything we know about BABIP suggests it is an anomaly.
  13. davearm2
    YOU'RE ACTUALLY SAYING "hmm, that road avg. doesn't look quite right, let's arbitrarily just take away 15% of his hits" Except it's not arbitrary at all. It's specifically aimed at correcting an anomaly in the data. That's the whole point, actually... trying to see what Headley would be if he was neither lucky nor unlucky, and if his home ballpark was neither hitter-friendly nor pitcher-friendly.
  14. davearm2
    Fine. Average.
  15. davearm2
    Didn't you just contend that it shouldn't? Kind of makes me question your credibility on this whole thing. It should. I misspoke.
  16. davearm2
    So lame. If you've got a critique or can show me what I've done wrong, then by all means let's hear it. Otherwise you come off looking like a lemming that thinks my analysis must be flawed but has no idea why.
  17. davearm2
    My contention is that his road numbers are artificially inflated by an unsustainable BABIP, perpetuating a myth that he'll continue to be an .800 hitter outside of PetCo. So Headley's performance at every other park over 1000+ PAs is the outlier, and will regress to his performance in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the game, which is the expected norm. Not sure why this is so hard for you to understand. Headley's BABIP on the road is anomalous and isn't sustainable, and thus is due for some regression. Conversely, getting outside of PetCo should boost his home BABIP a bit. If we take Headley's career stats and adjust the home BABIP up from .297 to .320, and the road BABIP from .374 to .320, his career OPS becomes .699. If we adjust both to .310 (the upper range of what's considerered a "normal" BABIP), then his career OPS becomes .684. If we adjust both to .334 (LD% + .140), then his career OPS becomes .722.
  18. davearm2
    My contention is that his road numbers are artificially inflated by an unsustainable BABIP, perpetuating a myth that he'll continue to be an .800 hitter outside of PetCo.
  19. davearm2
    Wouldn't an overall average BABIP in an extreme pitchers park be a very good thing? No. There's nothing intrinsic about PetCo that makes it harder to get a hit on a bap.
  20. davearm2
    Not to sound callous, but the guy died. It's too late.
  21. davearm2
    On a .374 BABIP. Do you expect he'll be able to sustain that going forward? He has a .339 career BABIP in over 2100 plate appearances. Yeah, thanks to a .374 BABIP on the road :banghead: At home it's .297, or just about average for all MLBers.
  22. davearm2
    On a .374 BABIP. Do you expect he'll be able to sustain that going forward?
  23. davearm2
    IMO Headley is being pretty badly overvalued in here. I've tinkered around with different methods to adjust for park factor and BABIP, and the numbers keep coming back showing he's a .680-.700 OPS guy under neutral conditions.
  24. davearm2
    Home @ .297 BABIP Road @ .374 BABIP Makes me think, 1. How'd he manage to sustain a .374 in over 1000 ABs? 2. .655 OPS is probably closer to reality than .805, even considering park effects. SWAG is you're looking at around .700 OPS after adjusting for both park and BABIP.
  25. davearm2
    If a team trades for Flaherty, they are not allowed to place him on the 40-man prior to the Rule 5 draft. Traded or not, he will be available to be selected in the Rule 5.
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