The difference in the Cubs start this year and the Brewers early run in 2007 is that the Cubs were under-performing their pythagorean win/loss record by several games. My contention last season, was that the Cubs were going to start making up ground because of their slow start (i.e. they lost an inordinate number of one-run games in the first month of the season which, coupled with the Brewers hot start, caused them to fall behind in the standings). However, their extended winning streak in June and July, and eventual division championship, did not completely reconcile their slow start; the Cubs ended the season, at 85-77, two games below projection. For the record, the Brewers final record of 83-79 was spot on. The 15-7 2008 Cubs have not been completely outperforming as a team and there should not be an expectation that they will stop winning all of a sudden. They are one game above their projected pythagorean of 14-8. Let's keep in mind that PECOTA projects the Cubs to win an NL high 95 games which is five games better than the next closest divisional rival. Of course, that doesn't mean that they can't underachieve... BTW, the Brewers are also exceeding their pythag of 12-10 by one game. Not surprisingly, the Cardinals 14-9 record is as predicted considering their schedule thus far. The Pirates are the only other NLC team exceeding Pythag by one game (the other two are one game worse than projections). No matter how you look at it, the Cubs are where they should be at this point of the season; leading the division with the second best record in the League.