Wrigley Rat

High ranking Dominican League prospects (over the past 10 games)/Overall AVG: RH 3B Joel Altagracia (.310 AVG with 2 HR's)/.200. LH SS Carlos Henry (.258 AVG)/.171. RH C/3B Wilson Contreras (.182 AVG)/.182. Today, six players stole bases against two of our catchers (no one caught stealing).

Su-Min Jung pitched at Mesa today - he was the starter. http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2009_07_21_angrok_cubrok_1

Cal has already updated the first page, but 3rd round pick Austin Kirk has signed with the Cubs. http://www.tulsaworld.com/sports/article.aspx?subjectid=225&articleid=20090721_229_0_Owasso348113&allcom=1

Here is what I would do: (1) Let these guys become Free Agents (sign them after the draft if you want to): (a) Chad Fox, P (b) Kevin Gregg, P © Rich Harden, P (d) Reed Johnson, OF (2) Try to trade as many players as you could to lower the number of Rule V Draft-eligible players. (a) Jose Ascanio (out of options in 2010) (b) Jake Fox (out of options in 2010) (Hoffpauir has 2 options left) © And anyone making more money than they are worth (3) Decide who to remove from the 40-man roster after the season (or earlier): (a) Mitch Atkins (b) Koyie Hill (he is a typical backup catcher & many will be available after the Rule V Draft) © Jeff Baker (he is 28 and he is out of options and must stay in Chicago all year - more valuable players to protect) (d) Andres Blanco (he is out of options and must stay in Chicago all year - is he worth it?) (e) Aaron Miles (we would have to pay him for 2010 or trade him) (f) Bobby Scales (typical AAAA player) (g) Jason Waddell (typical journeyman lefty) ***That leaves up to 14 open spots. (The Cubs only have 38 on the 40-man right now.)*** (4) Decide who to add to the 40-man roster before the Rule V Draft (this is the order I would use - not necessarily protect all of these players): (a) John Gaub (lefty - seems ready for MLB) (b) Blake Parker (seems ready for MLB) © Welington Castillo (most upside catcher) (d) Tyler Colvin (too early to give him away) (e) Steve Clevenger (most ready catcher) (f) Matt Camp (lefty, speedy, plays IF-OF) (g) Jayson Ruhlman (lefty) (h) Jeremy Papelbon (lefty) (I wouldn't protect these guys): Alex Maestri (wild, 1.415 WHIP, may get selected - probably returned, but other players are more ready) J.R. Mathes (27, 3 years in AAA, underwhelming stuff) Jake Muyco (25, little experience as a pitcher, weak statistics) Here is my 40-man roster pre-Rule V Draft (with one spot remaining for a pick): PITCHERS: Jose Ascanio Mitch Atkins Justin Berg Ryan Dempster * John Gaub Angel Guzman Kevin Hart Aaron Heilman * Ted Lilly Carlos Marmol * Sean Marshall Marcos Mateo * Jeremy Papelbon Blake Parker David Patton * Jayson Ruhlman Jeff Samardzija Jeff Stevens Randy Wells Carlos Zambrano CATCHERS: Welington Castillo * Steve Clevenger # Koyie Hill Geovany Soto INFIELDERS: Jeff Baker # Andres Blanco * Matt Camp * Mike Fontenot * Micah Hoffpauir Derrek Lee # Aaron Miles Aramis Ramirez Ryan Theriot OUTFIELDERS: # Milton Bradley * Tyler Colvin Jake Fox * Kosuke Fukudome * Sam Fuld Alfonso Soriano If the Cubs were to sign some free agents, these would be the players I would remove from the 40-man roster (in this order): (1) Jeff Baker (2) Aaron Miles (3) Sam Fuld (4) Mitch Atkins

Here is Arizona Phil's take on it: CUBS PROJECTED 2010 POST-SEASON RESERVE LIST (40-MAN ROSTER): * bats or throws left # bats both PITCHERS (18): Jose Ascanio Mitch Atkins Justin Berg * Neal Cotts (likely 12/12 non-tender) Ryan Dempster Angel Guzman Kevin Hart Aaron Heilman * Ted Lilly Carlos Marmol * Sean Marshall Marcos Mateo David Patton Jeff Samardzija Jeff Stevens * Jason Waddell (likely will get outrighted to minors post-2009) Randy Wells Carlos Zambrano CATCHERS (2): # Koyie Hill Geovany Soto INFIELDERS (9): Jeff Baker (likely 12/12 non-tender) # Andres Blanco * Mike Fontenot * Micah Hoffpauir Derrek Lee # Aaron Miles Aramis Ramirez # Bobby Scales Ryan Theriot OUTFIELDERS (5): # Milton Bradley Jake Fox * Kosuke Fukudome * Sam Fuld Alfonso Soriano POST-2009 MLB ARTICLE XX FREE-AGENTS (4): Chad Fox, P Kevin Gregg, P Rich Harden, P Reed Johnson, OF TOP CANDIDATES FOR 40-MAN ROSTER POST-2009 NOTE: Probably no more than six will be added... Welington Castillo, C * Steve Clevenger, C-1B * Tyler Colvin, OF * John Gaub, P Blake Parker, P * J. R. Mathes, P Gregory Reinhard, P Chris Robinson, C

Here's the current 40-man roster: Pitchers B/T Ht Wt DOB * 58 Jose Ascanio R/R 6-0 170 05/02/85 * 60 Mitch Atkins R/R 6-3 230 10/01/85 * 64 Justin Berg R/R 6-3 230 06/07/84 * 48 Neal Cotts L/L 6-1 200 03/25/80 * 46 Ryan Dempster R/R 6-2 215 05/03/77 15-day Disabled List * 44 Chad Fox R/R 6-3 215 09/03/70 15-day Disabled List 63 Kevin Gregg R/R 6-6 240 06/20/78 37 Angel Guzman R/R 6-3 200 12/14/81 40 Rich Harden L/R 6-1 195 11/30/81 22 Kevin Hart R/R 6-4 220 12/29/82 47 Aaron Heilman R/R 6-5 225 11/12/78 30 Ted Lilly L/L 6-1 190 01/04/76 49 Carlos Marmol R/R 6-2 180 10/14/82 45 Sean Marshall L/L 6-7 220 08/30/82 * 62 Marcos Mateo R/R 6-1 160 04/18/84 * 54 David Patton R/R 6-3 205 05/18/84 15-day Disabled List 29 Jeff Samardzija R/R 6-5 220 01/23/85 52 Jeff Stevens R/R 6-2 205 09/05/83 * 43 Jason Waddell R/L 6-2 200 06/11/81 36 Randy Wells R/R 6-3 230 08/28/82 38 Carlos Zambrano S/R 6-5 255 06/01/81 Catchers B/T Ht Wt DOB 55 Koyie Hill S/R 6-0 190 03/09/79 * 18 Geovany Soto R/R 6-1 225 01/20/83 15-day Disabled List Infielders B/T Ht Wt DOB 28 Jeff Baker R/R 6-2 210 06/21/81 13 Andres Blanco S/R 5-10 190 04/11/84 17 Mike Fontenot L/R 5-8 170 06/09/80 5 Jake Fox R/R 6-0 210 07/20/82 6 Micah Hoffpauir L/L 6-3 215 03/01/80 25 Derrek Lee R/R 6-5 245 09/06/75 * 7 Aaron Miles S/R 5-8 180 12/15/76 15-day Disabled List 16 Aramis Ramirez R/R 6-1 215 06/25/78 * 24 Bobby Scales S/R 6-0 185 10/04/77 2 Ryan Theriot R/R 5-11 175 12/07/79 Outfielders B/T Ht Wt DOB 21 Milton Bradley S/R 6-0 225 04/15/78 1 Kosuke Fukudome L/R 6-0 185 04/26/77 * 27 Sam Fuld L/L 5-10 185 11/20/81 9 Reed Johnson R/R 5-10 180 12/08/76 12 Alfonso Soriano R/R 6-1 180 01/07/76

Cal, Feel free to start a thread if you'd like.

The following players are eligible to be selected in this December's Rule V Draft (along with several others, these just seem to be the most likely candidates to be protected): Matt Camp, IF-OF Welington Castillo, C Steve Clevenger, C-1B Tyler Colvin, OF John Gaub, LHP Blake Lalli, C-1B Alessandro Maestri, RHP + J. R. Mathes, LHP Jake Muyco, RHP Jeremy Papelbon, LHP Blake Parker, RHP Chris Robinson, C Jayson Ruhlman, LHP Based on that list, I would imagine the Cubs would consider bringing up one or two of the locks to be added to the 40-man roster this off-season. We could really use a John Gaub and a Blake Parker right now. I could also see a reason to call up Steve Clevenger. (I wouldn't call up Chris Robinson because I wouldn't put him on the 40-man roster - we would have to designate him for assignment when we need his roster spot (and lose him just like Casey McGehee)).

Good moves - McDaniel was better last year in a closer role and Williamson has been inconsistent, but has good stuff. Maybe he's been working on a new pitch or two? It looks like Mateo is back to the bullpen as well (he pitched in relief today).

Good luck on your exam.

So here's a fun story: Aaron Miles is rehabbing in Iowa. In the six rehab starts prior to today, he managed to bat at a .227 average (1 walk & 5 hits in 22 AB's). During today's game, Aaron managed to get a double and a walk in his 4 plate appearances, BUT after his walk he got picked off first, and after his double he got thrown out at third trying to stretch it into a triple. He also had a fielding error today. I guess it's not so much a fun story as it is a disappointing one. Time to get someone else to take him off of our hands.

Our minor league system needs a catching instructor who can teach our catchers how to throw runners out attempting to steal a base. Just about all across the board, our catchers do a bad job at that. 4 SB's today against Clevenger. Here is the CS/SB records for our minor league catchers (impressive stats are bolded; depressive stats are italicized): Name SB/CS CS% Iowa: Jake Fox 2/1 33% Mark Johnson 17/5 23% Steven Clevenger 18/4 18% Christopher Robinson 46/8 15% Tennessee: Steven Clevenger 6/8 57% Welington Castillo 25/23 48% Blake Lalli 2/1 33% Mark Reed 7/1 13% Daytona: Luis Flores 11/8 42% Robinson Chirinos 49/17 26% Mark Reed 28/5 15% Peoria: Michael Brenly 43/29 40% Mario Mercedes 21/9 30% Luis Flores 20/3 13% Boise: Alvaro Sosa 10/5 33% Richard Jones 2/1 33% Matt Williams 10/3 23% Matthew Cerda 6/0 0% Mesa: Alvaro Sosa 0/1 100% Jose Guevara 3/2 40% Juan Medina 9/2 18% Richard Jones 12/2 14% Matt Williams 5/0 0% Dominican 1: Carlos Romero 15/14 48% Yonan Fuenmayor 17/6 26% Jose Vigay 15/3 17% Dominican 2: Miguel Gonzalez 31/11 26% Ricardo Parra 16/3 16% Hector Suarez 60/7 10% For me, these statistics do a couple things. First of all, Michael Brenly moves up my prospect chart a bit since his defensive numbers are solid. (I have never given him much credit as a prospect since he was drafted so late and it looked to be as a favor to his dad.) "Defensive specialists" like Luis Flores and Chris Robinson lose credibility with their numbers (combine Daytona and Peoria for Flores). Luckily for Robinson, he has hit this year but Flores isn't hitting or defending all that well. Mark Reed seems to be worthless, but is still on the young side and we still need catchers in the upper minors so he has stuck around. If I have to guess which catcher(s) get(s) protected for the Rule V Draft this off-season, I would have to say Welington Castillo is a lock due to his excellent defense and offensive projectibility (and his previous high ratings). I would also say that Steve Clevenger gets put on since he is left-handed, hits well historically, and has solid defensive numbers. I would venture to guess that Chris Robinson does not get protected this off-season due to his past trouble offensively, his poor defensive numbers, and the fact that there aren't enough spaces on the 40-man roster for everyone. Perhaps the Cubs try to include him in a trade before 40-man rosters are finalized. I realize that pitchers need to learn how to hold runners on better as well, but I can't quantify that, so... I left errors and passed balls off these lists in order to focus on catcher CS%, but feel free to check out those numbers for yourself if you are interested: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/

Ty Wright, Doug Deeds, and Welington Castillo all homer in the same inning. Tennessee up 5-1 in the 5th inning.

D.J. LeMahieu signed (Bob Brenly & Len Kasper said it on TV). Will report to Mesa.

You beat me by 2 minutes! :)

6 guys hit in today's Daytona game (which is only in the 5th inning). 5 of those guys are Cubs players (Chirinos has been hit three times by the same pitcher). I'd love to find out how intentional those were!

Transactions: B.J. Ryan officially assigned to Mesa Cubs. Bieneme Vismeldy assigned to DSL Cubs1 from DSL Cubs2. Gregori Gonzalez assigned to DSL Cubs2 from DSL Cubs1. Willengton Cruz assigned to DSL Cubs2 from DSL Cubs1. Jadel Mendez assigned to DSL Cubs2 from DSL Cubs1. ***Not official yet, but John Gaub is supposed to be activated as soon as today.***

Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets/2009/07/braves-11-mets-0-redding-out-l.html#ixzz0LemzaBYx

And his 4th error! And his 5th. Ouch! I assumed the first couple were due to nerves, but the guy needs to field his position! He just doesn't project to be much of a DH! :)

I don't read the "Cubs Discussion" thread, so I don't know if this is posted somewhere already, but: http://chicagocubsonline.com/I was surprised to read that. I have been under the assumption that his option would not be "picked up" but apparently it is going to "vest" already! That's another year of a high-priced bust.

And his 4th error!

http://www.jacksonville.com/sports/2009-07-17/story/jeremy_papelbon_helps_shut_down_the_sunsInteresting comments by Ryne Sandberg.

http://cubs.scout.com/2/879506.html I didn't realize that either, but it makes me a little encouraged that he might be a better pitcher than he appears to be this year. Usually pitchers show improvement about a year after surgeries, so maybe his low K total and higher ERA this year could be slightly attributed to the scar tissue or whatever and after a little cleanup this off-season may be more effective next year???? Who knows?

Well, Esmailin Caridad was not done. Here is how he finished: 6.0 IP, 9 H, 4ER, 4 R, 3 BB, 3 SO, 1 HR, 4.47 ERA That last inning killed his numbers.

Tony Campana (who was 2-for-3) was ejected from the game in the 5th inning requiring four defensive moves: (1) Luis Flores in at catcher. (2) Robinson Chirinos moves from catcher to 1B. (3) Jake Opitz moves from 1B to 2B. (4) Marwin Gonzalez moves from 2B to CF.