toonsterwu
Old-Timey Member-
Posts
4,716 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Never
Content Type
Profiles
Joomla Posts 1
Chicago Cubs Videos
Chicago Cubs Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
2026 Chicago Cubs Top Prospects Ranking
News
2023 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
Guides & Resources
2024 Chicago Cubs Draft Picks
The Chicago Cubs Players Project
2025 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
2026 Chicago Cubs Draft Pick Tracker
Blogs
Events
Forums
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by toonsterwu
-
Wish UVA was getting that lucky, but UVA's lost Montgomery, will likely lose Panzini, and there's some late talk that if a team gets to Woolfolk's price, he'll pass up playing two sports at UVA (he's a 3-star QB prospect). _____ on a totally different note, I wouldn't mind the Cubs drafting someone like Abbott (a good senior) and trying to save some money to make a run at someone in the 3rd. _____ Edit: Didn't realize that the Cubs had scouted Panzini. Just read that Ted Lilly went to scout him. Interesting, but he wants 7 figures supposedly. I guess we could pop him in the 2nd if he gets there. I'm thinking the Orioles interest and their savings may lead them to pop him in the 2nd.
-
I'm not so sure Abbott's breaking ball isn't better than that - it was more benefit of the doubt. The problem was, at times, his command of it slipped. The action on the slider - if he commands and locates it, it's a wipeout pitch. I think one underrated thing about Abbott is that, late in the year, when I caught him, that changeup was nasty. It hasn't been that way all year, but the changeup got better and better as the season progressed. In the combined no-hitter this year, all his stuff looked plus in that game. Admittedly, Abbott got out to a relatively slow start this year. I do get the concern on Gavin Williams - is he just a big velocity hoss who doesn't have a plus secondary, but I really like the upside there. Looking on Abbott right now, I see MLBpipeline has it as a "60 curve" but in their comments, it "slurves". Looks more like a slider to me, but I could be wrong. I am of the belief that the development of the change gives him a chance as a starter. In the tournament, against, uh, Tennessee, that changeup looked good. There's always the fallback of shifting him to the pen as a power lefty.
-
Abbott's slider is at least a 55 that flashes 60. I actually think, if there's a gap from Wicks to Abbott (I could use another pitcher for this, but since I brought Abbott in, let's just go with that), I think it's upside. There's a bigger frame (there's still some concern about Abbott's frame), and Wicks has better velocity (there were games where Abbott was more 89-93 as a starter, while touching 95 when he needed it). I don't know Abbott's spin rates, so maybe that's a factor, but the combination of a plus, if not better, change and better velocity and frame is deserving of being ahead of Abbott (to be clear, I wasn't arguing for Abbott to be ahead, just not sure there' s a huge gap). I expect Abbott to go in the 2nd, particularly since he's a senior with little leverage (chances of him going back to UVA to use the extra year are slim-to-none.) I do think Abbott's breaking ball is a good step ahead of Wicks, and in some respects, may make Abbott's floor a bit safer.
-
Leaving aside top picks, my favorite pick right now might be Gavin Williams to the Indians. It's the right system, but I believe in Williams, and I think his changeup should get better as he uses it more. He's a big strong kid who's still "growing" into his body in some respects, but has an electric fastball. I think scouting reports put the slider at 55, but he's going to a system that can really mold pitching. All in all, I think it's a fantastic pick and system fit.
-
I don't mind the Wicks pick. I'm not as enthused about Wicks as most as I don't love that he seems to get hit off his fastball too much and his breaking stuff is very average. There's probably a bit more in the tank, hopefully, and the profile is solid. They keep comparing to Detmers, but I still don't get why Detmers was so huge last year, at least relative to where he was picked. To be clear, considering where we picked, I'm not complaining about Wicks. I hope they are right on him, although I just worry that we drafted high floor more than ceiling, which is fine but less exciting. I do like the depth of options in the 2nd/3rd round. I think the Cubs should still find some good options whatever route they go. I thought college arms in that 2nd/3rd range was going to be pretty strong. Picking Wicks likely eats up the slot, so doubtful we take longshot gambles on HS kids unless it's coming in the 2nd/3rd, where you might be able to finagle things around and make it work. I'm obviously biased, but I don't see the huge gap from Wicks to, say, Andrew Abbott, and hence why I sort of preferred skipping on college arms in the first round.
-
Tough way for Arizona to finish the year - getting to Rocker, but losing in extras and then just not executing enough against Stanford. That was a damn good lineup, and I thought they would have enough to make a run. NC State's lack of pitching depth is protected in the CWS now that they have won the first two. They'll be able to rest up, and if they are pushed to a 4th game, Highfill can come back. Going to be some interesting matchups today. Tennessee vs. Texas to stay alive, and then Griff McGarry and UVA versus a tremendous top of the order for Mississippi State and a good lefty in MacLeod (who has admittedly stumbled the last three outings against good offenses ... he was fairly consistent all year, with hiccups against Arkansas and Vanderbilt, and then he struggled the last three times out against VCU, Notre Dame, and Tennessee). If UVA ends up facing NC State, it'll be a funny little rejoinder on all the ACC sucks so Notre Dame is overrated comments during the season. I'm not willing to go that far yet on picking UVA (NC State is obviously in the driver's seat in their side). Have to see which McGarry we get tonight.
-
2021 Draft Thread
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
I wouldn't mind Bednar in the first. Really good season, the slider looks better than I thought, and the fastball plays. I don't think I love the idea of Bednar there for the Cubs (for a college arm, he's still relatively raw) but if he's the best talent on the board, go for it. Quick note on Abbott - that circle change has really come on strong of late. It's at least an average offering, and in the last outing against Tennessee, it looked better than that with it's movement and velocity. I have to admit, I had my doubts on Abbott as a starter, but with solid velocity for a lefty, a plus breaking ball, and an improving changeup, plus fairly loose mechanics that he seems to repeat well, he definitely should get a long run as a starter in a system. Going to be interesting to see how Griff McGarry does tonight against Mississippi State. If he continues performing like the last two starts, I could see a team saying, screw it, let's pop him earlier than expected, save a little money, and see if we can fix him enough to get a usable starter out of it. That's elite level stuff, and it's been on enough in the last two outings. -
Fantastic win for UVA. I would not have expected this mid-season. 5-2 over DBU. DBU went to their closer early, after Eldred was pulled. Gaither has good stuff. UVA got a long ball from Nic Kent, and then loaded it up for Kyle Teel's grand slam. I cannot fathom what they were thinking in that pitch sequence. Three breaking balls that Teel was seeing well (he crouched down to watch one in). An average fastball chest high, and then they tried another breaking ball that Teel hammered. Savino got pulled early after giving up a 2 run shot to Jackson Glenn. I have Lynch vibes there - a guy who is good, but never unlocks his full potential until the pros. Wyatt was dominant. If that Wyatt shows up next year, that might be a first round pick. 93-96 fastball with a good silder. Of course, this Wyatt also failed to get out of the first against Liberty in a weekday start this year. Pitching can surprise in the CWS and UVA has the pitching. It'll be a tough road - I feel like the bottom bracket has more offense, but they just beat two big time offenses in ODU and DBU.
-
Savino only 89-91 on the ESPN gun (which admittedly is fairly erratic, but it shouldn't be off by that much). Slider looks decent, not plus, but he located it against Benefield. Had two ground balls to start that found holes. Savino should be back for another year as a weekend starter and working on getting stronger, a bit more velocity, and sharpening up the slider. He's an intriguing raw talent right now. I don't love the 3/4 arm slot, almost side-arm slinging it, and I wonder if a pro team will ask him to make the transition Daniel Lynch made and go more over the top.
-
UVA opted for Savino to get this critical start. He was arguably the top prep pitcher in the 2020 class, probably even more highly touted than Vasil the year before. Stuff is still power lefty stuff, able to hit mid-90's (although i've seen games where he was more 92/93) with some late action on the fb, decent-solid slider, and changeup. UVA coaches have been careful with him, since COVID impacted his first year, and he went to UVA the spring of his senior season (graduated early). Wasn't in the weekend rotation until midseason. Pitches a lot more to contact now.
-
Heck of an afternoon game for UVA yesterday. I hated the fact that they couldn't string together hits early enough against the DBU arm (live fastball, but a bit straight and slider looks good but not great, but he located well). They eventually tagged him when DBU stunningly, IMO, left Kouba, the starter, into the 8th while past 100 pitches and the score being 0-0. Z. Gelof tagged him for a home run (as they started jumping on him earlier, since he was just trying to throw strike one down the pike), while Alex Tappen hit a 3-run shot after UVA got an obstruction call to keep the inning going (clear obstruction on the pickoff move ... ESPN commentators were poor there ... pickoff throw was off, but the first baseman (who was supposedly doing it all game based on reports there), had his foot blocking the base path before the throw and didn't move it and stepped on the pinch runner's hand). The Griff McGarry that pitched yesterday would be a borderline 1st run pick, probably at least a 2nd rounder. He was the Griff of old - electric stuff, and able to get out of jams. His fastball command came and went, but he had a nasty curveball. If that curve yesterday didn't grade a 70 for scouts there, I'd be stunned. It was filthy and he was locating it, and DBU is an excellent lineup. McGarry throwing 7 shutout (they trotted him out for the 8th, which was stupid IMO, before the umps forced him out because of bleeding) really gives UVA their best possible chance today, as everyone besides McGarry (and Abbott - I don't see them rushing him back for a bat or two) will be available. Going to be interesting - going up against Luke Eldred (Cal Eldred's kid).
-
I don't get what's up with UVA in general. They've had plenty of talent come through over the years and I can't think of one high impact player outside of Ryan Zimmerman (drafted and debuted at 20, pretty cool) who lived up to the hype. They're not the worst at bats, I think Gelof would be interesting for the Cubs outside the first, but there hasn't been a ML starter in a while off the top of my head. The pitching feels like something else, all injuries and lost velocity. Lynch and soon Abbott are hopefully the program maybe turning the corner a little bit. Lynch isn't a worldbeater but the arm strength from a lefty is very impressive and obviously I'm all aboard the Abbott wagon especially if he's drafted by a team into winning. McGarry strikes me as a guy who can easily be a better pro than college player, plenty of tools and his health The field seems loaded this year, but yeah the big names almost always end up getting the furtherst. I'm basic and rooting for Arkansas after deciding Moore is my favorite player (and prospect) currently in college. I was rooting for GT when I heard about the Grissom Jr/Leiter matchup, they have a good team (Waddell is another player I wouldn't mind seeing join the Cubs org), but yeah notsodeepdown...The good thing is that more Vanderbilt means more XP for Enrique Bradfield Jr., seems like an exciting player ALL that said...burn the NCAA to the ground lol You could run through the names and the thing about UVA is a lot of them have struggled for a variety of reasons. I think there was an easy label to slap on O'Connor's guys during his tenure - for pitchers, it was the whole "crouch" issue, which has largely gone away after the pitching coach change, and for hitters, it was the whole "approach" issue, which really was as much about playing to the home park (To fault O'Connor and Co. for playing to the park was something I never understood - I would hope I have a manager that does that, while developing his guys all around games). That said, there really have been a variety of reasons why guys haven't panned out, which really suggests that it's less about O'Connor and his staff, and more about individual circumstances. In recent years, the talent hasn't been there as much, but a lot of guys also didn't pan out, particularly on the arm side (Offensively, this was the best squad UVA's had since the Pavin Smith/Adam Haseley run, and this offense was an utter mess at times). Mike Vasil's stuff backed up from this prep days - I can think of guys like Connor Jones, whose stuff backed up from his sophomore to junior years, and Jake Thompson. I'm not putting Savino in that group yet - his first year was lost to COVID, so I'm more wait and see there. Nate Kirby was injured, as was Danny Hultzen. After reading about what happened with Hultzen, that's really on the player, which he has sort of acknowledged. Branden Kline always was more of a pen arm and then got hurt. As of right now, I don't recall what the issue with Nick Howard on the Reds was (statistically, it was command, looks like he's still pitching at 28 in AA). On the bat side, there have been guys that are too free swinging (Parker, Fisher, Downes), guys whose hit tools weren't that good (Mike Papi comes to mind). I was still high on Pavin Smith last year, and he's showing sparks (the fact that he's playing CF at times also stuns me), and there may be an argument that at the pro level, some of the non-power UVA bats needs to change their launch angles to succeed. Chris Taylor did as well, and he's arguably been the most successful bat in recent years. Again, hard to fault O'Connor for playing to his home park. As for this year's squad, Kyle Teel will be fascinating. I think he has better tools than Matt Thaiss defensively (and Thaiss didn't have a defensive home and didn't have ideal corner power), so he could be interesting as a C prospect, but the bat and athleticism are good and I'll be interested what happens in 3 years. In terms of prosects this year, Zack Gelof has so much raw power but he's very swing or miss. I have no idea if Nic Kent gets drafted high enough that he goes pro this year - his early slump would suggest no, but he had a decent 2nd half. More of a utility guy, IMO, but then again, Andy Weber's gotten to the upper levels (Kent's better defensively). No other bat is really all that interesting - Devin Ortiz can't play MI anymore, and I don't think he has the power to stick at a corner, so if I'm him, I try to be a P. Even if you include underclassmen, Chris Newell is Jarrett Parker in some respects, the other OF bats aren't all that great (Alex Tappen has had a solid 2nd half, and I could see a team give him a look, but hard to think he gets drafted unless it's for cost savings). Jake Gelof is arguably the 4th or 5th best bat. Arm side, there's Abbott/McGarry. I don't know what Vasil does - tailed off so much, stuff is so average. Honestly, he should go to the pen and cut a breaking ball out and go max effort and toss upper 90's in short spurts. I suspect a lot of the upperclassmen pen arms will get pro looks - Blakes Bales, Stephen Schoch, Kyle Whitten, but none are really high level guys. The interesting decision will be some of the junior arms that are currently in the pen - Zach Messinger and Brandon Neeck. Can Neeck ride 1 postseason outing to a surprising draft pick? Probably not, and another year back, perhaps in the rotation, could push him much higher. Messinger could come back to a bigger role as well. If I'm the Cubs, I pass on Gelof until say, the 3rd round give or take. Good raw power, suspect approach, might not stick at 3rd. If Abbott makes it to the 2nd, I could see it. If they think they can work with McGarry, taking him anywhere is a thought, although I have no idea where McGarry's value would be right now. I could see some teams seeing the late inning tinkering and success and surprising with a higher than expected pick, but he had such a poor season, it's hard to figure.
-
2021 Draft Thread
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Williams was damn good today. As exciting as someone like Jack Leiter is, I might prefer someone like Gavin Williams over the long haul. Dunno, he's had a good year. His stuff isn't at the level of Leiter or Rocker, but it's plenty good. Still think he should junk a breaking ball. -
McGarry could very well be a slightly bigger Alessandro Maestri, but it's a worthwhile gamble. Watching him pitch these last few years, I still don't know why UVA didn't try tinkering with his mechanics all that much. I feel like if you straighten him up, some of the command issues will iron out, as it feels like his arm action is causing the inconsistency in command. Even if you lose a tiny bit on the fastball, it could be worth it. It's been a fun post-season in college, in general. Albeit, it's mostly the top seeds making it through, but the regionals were actually fairly interesting. For a moment, I thought the Jackets were going to knock out Vandy.
-
Looks like College Baseball talk never really got going here. Anyhow, onto the Super Regionals. A lot of fun exciting regionals, actually, this year, with Arkansas being pushed hard. LSU/Virginia/Dallas Baptist all made nice runs, although LSU/Dallas Baptist were arguably bigger surprises than Virginia (I believe d1baseball said the Columbia South Regional was basically a toss-up, with a slight edge to ODU for their lineup). Virginia finally starting to show why they were a top 10 squad in the pre-season. Rallying from the loser's bracket is difficult, and their pitching depth really showed after they lost Abbott's start, and Vasil didn't do well in the 2nd game, causing Savino to be used. It was arguably UVA's 8-11 arms (if one ranked UVA's arms in some sort of status ranking, it'd be the weekend rotation and closer, plus Whitten/Bales/Messinger) this year that pulled them through. I think the depth of UVA's arms really showed in the 2 meetings with ODU - ODU trotted out their lower significance arms in that 1st game, and their stuff is fairly pedestrian, and in the final game, I'm not so sure the raw stuff of their arms really matched up with UVA's 8-10 arms. Matt Wyatt is a potential arm for next year's draft, who can get mid-90's velocity with a good breaking ball. I suspect he is in the weekend rotation next year. Griff McGarry was the Friday starter before his command torpedoed his senior season, but if he doesn't get a pro shot, I'll be surprised. It's, as a starter, upper 90's velocity with some movement and a pretty good curveball. I think he could move fast if a team shifted him to the pen, but I also wonder if a team will try to iron out his mechanics (straighten him up a bit, go over the top a bit more) to fix the command). Brandon Neeck was a fairly well thought of recruit 3 years ago but had labrum surgery his freshman year. After being basically a matchup lefty all year, he had 16 K's in 5.2 innings. Fastball really has some cross-action on it and is in the low-mid 90's range, and the slider, while not plus, is at least above average with some movement on it, and he locates both. I assume he comes back, and I don't know if he's rotation next year or maybe closer. It was topped off by Devin Ortiz pitching 4 shutout after only pitching 2 innings all year. If Ortiz has a pro future, I think it's in pitching, because he doesn't have the athleticism to do anything but the corners anymore and I don't think the bat is good enough at the corners. Pitching wise, with little work outside of scrimmages, he showed low-mid 90's with two breaking balls, a sharp curve that I'd be stunned if it didn't get above average to plus grades on it if he had more work, and a decent slider. I think Supers format sets up well for this UVA team, as they can matchup the pitching a lot more and not worry. Dallas Baptist is a solid squad, but realistically, things broke well for UVA in terms of a matchup.
-
Looks like UVA's pitching has finally solidified after several down years post-Kirby/Waddell/Sborz (Lynch took off in the pros). Abbott looks solid as a college starter but I still wonder if his pro future is better in the pen as I don't know if the stuff is quality enough and holds (had anyone drafted him last year, he probably would've been tried in the rotation in the minors at some point). I think McGarry's pro future, if he has one, is in the pen, but he's fine as a college starter. Nate Savino got pushed to a weekday starter role. I'm more worried about the hitting, as I didn't think they had the depth, and a guy that might've played a role, like Evan Sleight, transferred. Newell's off to a slow start.
-
2021 Draft Thread
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
A bit off the radar due to his struggles so far in his first two years, but I'm quietly optimistic that Mike Vasil is putting it together. Curious if the stuff holds up, but if the stuff and command holds up, I wouldn't be stunned if he forced his way back into the first. Those are big if's, though. Looking real good right now. Wouldn't be surprised if he were eventually moved to the Friday slot at some point this year. -
2020-21 Offseason Top Prospects Lists
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Out of curiosity, anyone know where Kiley ranked the Cubs this year? 26th seems a bit low because there seems to be enough raw talent in the system, 17th seems reasonable, but obviously none of that really matters. At the end of the day, we simply need to develop and graduate top guys. I'm not necessarily convinced Brailyn definitely graduates from rookie lists this year. I guess it's possible, but I'm assuming he'll start in AA. -
2020-21 Offseason Top Prospects Lists
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'm not saying the depth isn't interesting, but I'm not going to get all that excited about high upside low level guys until they show something in full season to get excited about. Don't get me wrong, I think the system is deeper, but at the end of the day, there's only really a handful of names that stand out to me on those two lists, guys that seem like they might hold intrigue in all systems (for lack of a better way of phrasing it). Even then, more than half of that subset likely won't become much of anything by the time they get to AA ... if they get there. -
2020-21 Offseason Top Prospects Lists
toonsterwu replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'm actually not all that enthused about the depth of the system. I guess I'm still waiting to see if Strumpf's bat is that elite. There's big curiosity on Preciado now, considering Longenhagen's take really was high. I am rather big on Kohl Franklin and think he might just be a little under ... well, not undervalued (as 6 is high) but maybe under-appreciated. Of course, with 2020 being what it was, it's hard to really know right now. I think Patterson might deserve to be ranked higher. That said, in comparing it to the Cubs depth of recent past ... well, yeah, it's deeper. It's funny, the end of the Hendry/Wilken era focused a lot on the number of guys at the top that struggled, but off the top, it seems like a decent amount of guys ended up having some time in the bigs. They just didn't develop top level talent. I think we might be in a better position than those years, as it feels like the ceiling of some of the depth is higher, but there's so many guys so far away that it's just hard to really get a grasp, particularly after 2020. Anyhow, I was running some stuff and while waiting, I was looking at clips of Brennen Davis' swing from 2019. Boy, I really want to find something to pick apart there, and obviously, highlights are a bit limiting, but the swing looks so good that I just have a hard time not putting him first. Marquez's relative ceiling might be greater, but boy, if that swing holds for Davis and he can deal with the off-speed stuff at higher levels ... put it this way, for the Cubs to open a 2nd window sooner than later, it feels like Davis has to be real enough that he's a star you build around (since so many guys are so far away) or he's a guy who helps net a critical package (preferably the former, but I guess you never rule out anything). The guy from 11-30 that I'm really hoping on/curious with is Chris Clarke. The curve and sinker are fine, but curious if there's been enough development for him to make it as a starter in the upper levels, or if he'll get fast-tracked for the pen. I'm still holding out some hope, however small, that Justin Steele can have a nice run as a major league pen arm. Not sure why I keep holding out hope on that one. Wasn't there another Rodriguez? Not Manuel, but I can't think of it right now. -
Lindor & Carrasco to the Mets for Giménez, Rosario & 2 Prospects
toonsterwu replied to Bertz's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I get it from Cleveland's sake, but I really wonder what other offers were out there. I mean, they get cost certainty for the middle infield for the next couple of years, giving them a bit more flexibility in decision making. That said, Gimenez is ... well, I don't know if he's going to be much more than what we see. Rosario - I just don't know if he ever puts it together. Wolf and Greene are both high upside guys, but both come with some level of risk. Just because it's Cleveland, we'll get the stories about their ability to work with mechanics (I believe I read one already) and young toolsy assets, but it doesn't always click, for lack of a better term. It's an understandable deal from their side, but I think. on paper, this is just solid win for the Mets. They, at the very least, have a year to convince Lindor to stay and shower him with Cohen money. If they can get the assets around him, it opens a window of 3-5 years in a tough division where all teams have some reasonable arguments for positive outlooks for the next 5 years (I mean, the Nationals might have the weakest on-paper long term outlook, and they have Juan Soto to build around). Carrasco bolsters the short term run, and they don't really rip apart anything on their long term outlook in a major way (obviously, Greene and Wolf are significant, but you give up those assets in these types of deals. -
I liked Kochanowicz during the draft but a) I hate to center any deal around a pitcher, needs to be some special context like a stud or a great price b) I most definitely hate to center any deal around a teenaged pitcher who hasn't thrown a pro pitch (though technically he turned 20 a week or so ago) Even if he ends up a frontline kind of arm, it's hard to imagine this cold weather state arm who hasn't logged a pro (MLB, NPB, NCAA, MiLB, KBO) inning yet at 20 ever becomes *that* dude who can lead a staff. That alone is enough for me to prefer the everyday guy with Adams' talents All that said, I'm less into a Contreras trade than pre-Darvish. I think they should stick to their roots, outhit and outdefend everyone, and win a WS despite moving a TOR pitcher. New perspective for me is that I've been underrating Kyle Hendricks for a long, long time because he doesn't ace over the workloads I grew up on but he's a horse in today's game All of that is fair. There's a immensely high level or risk with someone like Kochanowicz. I'm fine taking said gamble now, when the system is still really thin on pitching (much as I like Kohl Franklin ... tbh ... Kochanowicz is probably relatively similar to Kohl now that I think about it, both guys stuff supposedly ticked up and will be curious if it holds) and the major league club is not, on paper, an elite team. Honestly, right now, I'll settle for a strong direction. I don't particularly care what, but a strong direction and no waffling. If you rebuild, rebuild. It doesn't mean you have to gut it to zero, but move pieces that can net decent returns when you can. As I said earlier in the offseason, if they wanted to run the band back, I wouldn't have been against that as long as they made efforts to make running the band back worthwhile without sacrificing the future. The TheoJed run was what it was - a successful rebuild that led to a title, a couple years of trying to extend the window, and as with most organizations, eventually, the window starts to fade a little if you focus too much on the present at the cost of the future. I mean, many of their big moves made sense at the time - I disliked the fundamentals of the Quintana deal (that is, giving up Eloy and Cease), but it made sense and the value was justified considering age and contract ... the Jason Heyward signing was ugly, but coming off the year he had, at his age, with his pedigree, it was fair). They probably fell into the opposite trap of what happened in Boston (Theo talked about his trades there costing the future when he joined the Cubs) - they probably over-valued some of their own guys (obvious who they would be), and then the system simply stalled. Tbh, I wonder if Happ and Hoerner will fall into guys they overvalue (I'd honestly consider shopping Happ this winter ... I just don't know how much better he can get).
-
Feels like this is rebuilding without using the word. I know what Hoyer said (and he is right, the ability to rinse and repeat that previous cycle is probably not the same anymore due to systematic changes across the sport), but moving veterans and trying to get short term stopgaps ... I think the the only things that prevent this from a rinse and repeat of the previous run is that a) they'll probably keep a core piece or two around (like Baez and Rizzo) b) The division will probably be relatively weak for a couple years c) At least in the next year, it's going to be hard for them to bottom out that much. That said, specific to Contreras, they can afford to wait a bit on a good deal. There's no immediate rush. Should probably still move him this year, preferably before the year, but at least by the trade deadline.
-
eh, 3 million. That isn't much, considering how much was left. It does make me wonder if the Padres are nearly tapped out, hence why they needed that 3 million. Maybe Preller isn't leaving any room for mid-season moves, and is banking on everything going well, or reaching into the farm to supplement. I had mildly wondered if they would try another big move, as they have the assets to try and make it happen still, but that 3 million does make me wonder.
-
Nooo, Adams is the reason my imaginary deal works! He's probably the best athlete in the minors, a sure CFer, has plenty of power coming, and demonstrated an advanced approach (10+% BB rate, below league average K rate, better than league average power) in the MWL over a nice, big 400+ PA sample size last year at 19. Think Pace of the Braves but he a higher ceiling and more team friendly (like winning not money) offensive game. Similar to Brennen Davis but with a much, much higher amateur profile, he was not supposed to see full season ball in 2019 let alone be one of the best players in the league. I have him as another one of those super high ceiling guys within the pro baseball sub-ML world* Kochanowicz isn't horrendous or anything, but he's far from Adams and also booooooo pitchers that haven't thrown a pro (MLB, NPB, NCAA, KBO, MiLB) pitch *True only if with Cubs obviously I think, the little I've followed of baseball, that Adams swing seems mildly concerning. It's possible that got fixed at some point this season when I wasn't paying attention. His ceiling is through the roof, I'll admit. Got bored right now and saw a video on Jordyn Adams swing, so maybe it has changed a bit already. At some point, though, the Cubs need to get take some chances on some high ceiling arms. Kochanowicz's stuff ticked up, from what I read, and his secondary pitches had a solid base to work with. I really wonder if he ends up as a frontline type of arm. Yes, the risk is far higher, but at some point, the Cubs have to take a gamble. That said, it's quite possible the Angels, with Adell and Marsh, would be more willing to shop Adams than someone like Kochanowicz.

