toonsterwu

Another solid start, on paper, for Justin Bristow. I'd be curious if Nate had anything to add in regards to how Bristow has looked. 5 ip, 4 h, 2 r, 6 k's, 1 HR, 5 ground balls, 4 flyouts. Last year's draft class feels like one of those classes that Tim Wilken might be able to hang his out on, like the 03 (?) Rays draft.

With the way our big league pen is, if we are in the race come late August/early September (as we should be), I really wouldn't rule anything out of the playbook. I don't think it should happen, but it wouldn't surprise me if they call up Cashner/Carpenter/Jackson, whomever, to give a twirl if the pen can't find a rhythm.

I don't think everybody thinks that Rhee and LeMahieu should be in there. There is also no chance Tyler Colvin makes my top 10. EDIT: Also, some people may not think Brett Jackson should be that high. If the reference is towards BA, though, I think BA will almost certainly have him in the top 10 due to their tools-oriented, organizational sources focus. But sure, I can understand some people not buying into Jackson. As I've said before, I don't think you can really make any concrete judgment on Jackson until Daytona or Tennessee ... as he should dominate Peoria/Boise/AZL.

Hmm ... that's interesting ... the last time I checked up on Maestri beyond boxscores was early, so maybe he's heated up as summer has progressed. Actually, if he's really zipping in the mid-90's fairly consistently, I'd have to rethink Maestri was Parker. Parker's FB moves better, but Maestri's slider is better than Parker's. Is Parker's control/attack method enough to compensate? Gut feeling is yes right now, but it'd very close.

If we're talking BA, my guess would be something like (again, specifically a BA oriented guess) 1. Josh Vitters 2. Andrew Cashner 3. Jay Jackson (We'll have to see how the rest of Jackson's season goes, but at midseason, either Callis or Manuel they indicated they thought he was a top 100 guy, ahead of Cashner/Castro. That said, reason I think Cashner goes ahead is because from what I understand, a lot of BA folks aren't as high on Jackson, so I can see the group debates going to Cashner. Again, a lot depends on how Jackson's season finishes). 4. Starlin Castro 5. Hak-ju Lee 6. Brett Jackson 7. Chris Carpenter (they were fairly high on his talent, outside of injury, but I think they go with the toolsy Jackson ahead of Carpenter). It's tough to figure out 8-10, as I think most people would classify those 7 as the Cubs top 7 right now in some order. My best BA guess on 8-10 8. Dae-Eun Rhee (think of it as a BA draft pick nod ... a little background to go off of, a lot of upside and potential) 9. DJ LeMahieu (just a guess, but if LeMahieu finishes strong, I think he might get a top 10 nod) 10. Steve Clevenger (he was 11th last year, IIRC, and he certainly hasn't gone down) Again, that's my best BA guess as of now. My top 10 isn't that different, but I wouldn't rank 8-10 that way.

Really? He's been that high this year? Last I checked, I thought he was in his usual low 90's area. I still prefer keeping Parker over Maestri.

I'm not really sure Chris can net that much in return. That said, hey, a low A kid with some upside might be better, with Castillo/Clevenger likely slated for AAA duty if both guys are around. I just hate losing Robinson for nothing. He'd be a great Rule 5 pick since he's probably already ready to be a backup C in the big leagues but you already have Clevenger whose bat I trust more. I'm definitely not as high on Papelbon as you guys are. I dont know much about Robinsons defense, but if its good, Id say give him a shot at the backup role next year. His numbers would probably be around your average backup catcher with an avg. in the low .200s and maybe a home run or 2 mixed in. btw, Robinson's defense is supposed to be solid. Not as good as say, the reports on Castillo this year, but probably a tinge better than Clevenger (not sure why I keep saying tinge these days).

I'm not really sure Chris can net that much in return. That said, hey, a low A kid with some upside might be better, with Castillo/Clevenger likely slated for AAA duty if both guys are around. I just hate losing Robinson for nothing. He'd be a great Rule 5 pick since he's probably already ready to be a backup C in the big leagues but you already have Clevenger whose bat I trust more. I'm definitely not as high on Papelbon as you guys are. I dont know much about Robinsons defense, but if its good, Id say give him a shot at the backup role next year. His numbers would probably be around your average backup catcher with an avg. in the low .200s and maybe a home run or 2 mixed in. But it's not really a good idea to have 4 catchers on the 40 man roster (Soto, Clevenger, Castillo and Robinson; Clevenger and Castillo should be saved over Robinson and by next season, you'd assume Clevenger could provide exactly what Robinson). ugh, 4 catchers on the 40 reminds me of a couple years ago when we had 4 (actually, didn't we carry 5 on the 40 for a brief period)? Heck, I don't even remember who it was that was added to take it that high. Just avoid at all costs that many catchers on a 40. Just bad.

I sort of hope Mateo gets kept around. I think his stuff plays better for the pen, as the development on the 3rd pitch just hasn't happened by some accounts.

to be fair to Welington, he was, statistically, hitting into some bad luck early in the year, according to MLS.

Bristow Archer/Cabrera Shafer Bibens-Dirkx Beliveau goes to the bullpen with the addition of Antigua. He is our LH long guy now with Hatley as the RH long guy. Hey, in your gut instinct, do you believe Beliveau can be a starter in the bigs? I think he's a good LOOGY in the making, but that's me, and it's also really early.

And once again, Tyler with a late season surge to give some hope ... -Is it me, or is Tyler Colvin the Alfonso Soriano of our farm system? It seems that since we drafted him, he'll go through these massive hot streaks, and then out of nowhere, he'll completely shut down. -So when does Marquez Smith get the bump to Iowa? I think weve firgured out exactly what he is in AA, and its time to give him the push, especially considering his age and that the I Cubs dont seem to have an actual 3B. -John Gaub belongs in the big leagues. that is all. I'll be surprised if Marquez Smith gets a bump early, to be honest. Maybe with a couple weeks left.

And the stashing away of David Patton continues ... not that I am complaining.

Here's hoping Leverton and Bristow can continue their semi-roll. On a side note, those fluff pieces are funny. The bromance thing on Lee/Watkins was funny. To be honest, on Bristow, I wasn't expecting much this year and was viewing 2010 as the big year for him. Just figured this would be a "work his way back" year.

And once again, Tyler with a late season surge to give some hope ...

Part of me wonders, on Hernandez, if this is a case where he was suspended, and the Cubs just don't want to prioritize him/ As for Russell, the most disappointing thing for me is that late last year, the reports on the development of his breaking pitch were solid. Furthermore, he was also showing some improvement in AA last year before the demotion to Daytona. I really thought he could be solid as a starter this year based on those reports, but it hasn't been.

Wiki Current Stats: 3-1, 3.15 ERA, 39 G, 65.2 IP, 54 H, 24 R, 23 ER, 5 HR, 36 BB, 57 SO, 7 HBP, 12 WP 1.371 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 4.9 BB/9, 7.8 SO/9, 1.58 SO/BB - 24 years old at AA - Less than a strikeout per inning pitched - High WHIP - Stuff is fringe average - Wild: 36 BB, 7 HBP, 12 WP in 65.2 IP - Right-handed - Bad pedigree (not a high draft pick or a high signing bonus) - Had shoulder tendinitis that kept him out the last 2 months of 2008 (could recur) I don't think I would protect him on my 40-man, but if there were a bunch of slots available, maybe. For me, it's upper level arm with some potential usefulness so if we can, we should keep him around. But Parker, by most accounts, has a more complete arsenal and better juice on his fastball, so he'd go ahead for me. Maestri is basically Wuertz-lite, a good guy to have, and a guy you try to protect if you can, but put it this way, for me, Castillo/Gaub/Parker are the three I'd focus on (Castillo because of his overall value - improved glove work and his bat ran into some bad luck (statistically) early, and has heated up of late, Gaub/Parker because of their potential usefulness to our squad in the near future).

I'm not really sure Chris can net that much in return. That said, hey, a low A kid with some upside might be better, with Castillo/Clevenger likely slated for AAA duty if both guys are around. I just hate losing Robinson for nothing. He'd be a great Rule 5 pick since he's probably already ready to be a backup C in the big leagues but you already have Clevenger whose bat I trust more. I'm definitely not as high on Papelbon as you guys are. Just to be clear, I'm not high on Papelbon in regards to what he might be, but rather, that he's an upper level guy that could fill a key role. I see Grabow being gone next year, and there's a chance Marshall gets a rotation look again. If that happens, we'll need a lefty, and Papelbon is up there, along with Gaub and Lambert, who I think a lot of people have fallen asleep on (granted, no relevancy to this thread).

Well, the fun part about discussing the farm are different opinions. I'm not sure what else Jackson and Cashner can do to "show" that their pitch is plus. Both had solid K rates. Actually, their K rates were more impressive to me than Carpenter's in Peoria because, well, at that level, a plus breaking pitch should dominate (see Chris Archer). Now, Jackson fell in a little slump the last month, but during his hot streak, he was very impressive. We'll have to see what the flaw was for this past month, as there's been very little reporting, but most of it probably revolves around consistency. As for Jackson's fastball, he's sitting in the low-mid 90's with good movement. No, the pitch isn't on part with his slider, but I haven't heard anyone call his fastball "average" to be honest. Is it an elite pitch? Nah, but it's definitely a solid pitch, and however one defines plus is the variable. The reality is, there are few pitchers in the minor leagues that profile as aces, true 1's. I'm assuming that is what you are referencing, as an average pitcher could be the "1" of a staff. All three of our guys are potential top of the rotation guys and are quality pitching prospects. Are they elite, top 50 prospects? No, but they are all fairly young considering when they joined our system. It's possible that Jackson and Cashner will both be considered top 100 type arms, and Carpenter be on the outskirts. I think you are far higher on Carpenter than a lot of folks. I can see the intrigue and I like him a lot, but I'm waiting to see how his changeup and command does at the upper levels. Of the three, I'm least confident about him, due to past health issues, command and consistency, and his changeup. On a side note, most reports suggest Jackson's 3rd offering is more than show me capable now, and that it's a measure of command/consistency. At his peak this year, Jackson was averaging near a K an inning, which is solid (iirc, at one point, it was 59 K's in 61 innings before he dipped off). It's not elite, but it was solid. I fully recognize his slump, not trying to avoid it, but I think he showed enough in the hot streak to be pleased with how fast his fastball has progressed (better velo this year) and how his secondary pitches have progressed. I'll also acknowledge another thing, that I am higher on Jackson than many others probably, but I think considering the 2 quality pitchers and 4 solid offerings, and considering the performance for part of this year, that when you factor in he's relatively new to full time pitching, that it's been an impressive start for him. Cashner's intriguing if the changeup development is true, as there have been some very positive reports. Let me cycle back to this - there aren't that many true "1" projections in the minors. 2003, our system was ranked as one of, if not, the best system in regards to pitching, iirc. I'll be honest - I think I prefer this current batch of arms more than that one, as that one was heavily tilted towards low level arms, and this one, we've got a solid batch in the upper levels. Btw, real quick, are you the same UK that shows up in the BA prospect chats? Random curiousity.

I've never been all that excited about Robert Hernandez and never rated him as high as most on NSBB, but this season has been a solid one considering he was off for a long time. He has had a low WHIP and a strikeout per inning. He's been solid versus RHH, but needs to improved vs. LHH (maybe develop a new pitch or refine one he isn't currently using?). It'll be interesting to see if he goes to instructionals this fall and how he does next season in Peoria or Daytona (I hope Peoria, again). I'm not sure he's on my Top 30 list this year, but he's got to be in my "Honorable Mention" category! :) It is a nice fastball/changeup complement, but he should dominate Boise after the success he had at Peoria. I have no idea what to really think of him ... although I think he's probably a righty James Russell in some respects.

Is he injured? Ill? I think someone said he had an injury, but it's slipping my mind what it is right now.

There was a stretch this year where Jay was ridiculously dominant. Okay, ridiculously might be going overboard, but after his first 3 starts, when he struggled, he went on a really hot streak. His overall numbers have come down a bit as he's had a bad month. But the package is enticing - a fastball that sits in that 92-94 mph range for the most part, a wipeout slider, and improving change and curve. There's no big mechanical issues, although his recent problems seem control oriented. We'll see how he bounces back - some suspect that it was workload getting to him that caused the drop in performance. The flyball rate is a bit bothersome, but it's not that bad of an issue. That's a very enticing package.

I'm not really sure Chris can net that much in return. That said, hey, a low A kid with some upside might be better, with Castillo/Clevenger likely slated for AAA duty if both guys are around.

For me, the guys I'd try to protect are Welington Castillo, C Steve Clevenger, C-1B John Gaub, LHP Alessandro Maestri, RHP Jeremy Papelbon, LHP Blake Parker, RHP That's already too much. From the remaining list, I think we'll lose a couple guys this offseason, but protecting 6 more is probably unlikely. Order of preference for those 6 would probably be 1. Welington Castillo - Still a nice property to have. 2. John Gaub - Potentially more than a LOOGY. 3. Blake Parker - Gut instinct says to put him ahead of Gaub, but my head says lefty value first. 4. Alessandro Maestri - Mike Wuertz-lite could get snatched if he's not protected. 5. Jeremy Papelbon - I want to find a way to keep him around. I think he could fill a Sean Marshall-ish, jack of all trades lefty role. 6. Steve Clevenger - Make him the backup backstop. I wouldn't mind. That said, I think Koyie will get that job again next year, and I'm fine with that.

Um ... I'm a bit confused by the last comment. Carpenter/Cashner/Jackson all have plus breaking balls. Those three are quality arms that would rate highly (possibly all within a top 120 list of the entire minors, prospect wise). There's other guys with good fastball/breaking ball combinations. Raisin has pointed out Searle this year. McDaniel has a good breaking ball. Plus is a debatable word, but it's good. It's the consistency that's lacking. Whitenack, by all accounts, has a plus breaking ball. Now ... the problem with Carpenter/Cashner/Jackson, in terms of arsenal, all have more to do with their 3rd pitch, for them to stay as starters. That said, there's been positive reports on all three this year.