toonsterwu

Wondering if anyone has heard anything more on Beeler's breaking stuff this year (curve)? Last thing I had (from this year's games) was that the curve was looking better, but he still was struggling to find consistency with it from time to time and hung some (but they weren't taken advantage of), but that was from one game, so curious if there's been other news about it. Still sounds like an average pitch at best. * I'm no pitching guru, but I keep wondering if he should try a slider, but that's my own personal ... curiosity.

I have to stop forgetting about Stanek because damn he is impressive (tall, loose, athletic, wipeout stuff, has the kind of fastball you look for and I think it translates to starting as a pro)...Covey I liked coming out of HS, but not sure he's a top tier pick right now. Regarding the bats, I like Austin Wilson and think he's improved his pitch recognition but I think Kris Bryant has to be considered the top college bat at this moment for '13. Regardless, you don't make draft decisions this year based on what next year's draft looks like. Agreed. My simple hope for this upcoming draft is that the first round pick is based on ceiling. Don't care college or prep, don't care positional or pitcher. It seems like a lot of Cubs fans are pushing for a fast-moving arm, and while that'd be nice, ceiling is more significant to me, as we have some mid-rotation ceiling arms in the upper levels. With the new rules, I can understand it if they want to go signability with the comp picks or some of the early round picks, although I'm not sure how I'd feel until we see who the guys in play are (tbh, I see someone posted something on Sickels about what they think teams will do in the upcoming draft, and my general hunch is that ... all the teams will be sort of feeling it out this year, as they get a gauge on what they can do. Could lead to some craziness where teams load up early and punt the draft, or could lead to some ultra-conservativeness as well, where teams perhaps go signability early. Hard to know). And with that, I'll go check on what's being said in the amateur forum.

Any idea on how his breaking ball is looking? Granted, with relievers, you probably need half a season or so to get a feel on consistency of stuff.

The 2013 draft does have Karsten Whitson at the top, and at this early stage, he looks like a possible top 3 pick. Tis early, though, and a lot will change. I'd have to double check ages, but I think the general feeling right now seems to be that Arias has the most potential (part of that is that he's physically bigger than the other two). That said, a long way to go. Between Peralta/Paulino, it's probably close.

It better be at 23. Anyone remember who the bigger signing was between Cruz and Liria? Who's got the changeup between the two? Which one doesn't have a crappy breaking ball? WHY have I been convinced Liria is LH for a year now? I pretty much have no faith in either as long term starters either...Neither is big, neither gets ARL points (which are worth alot), neither throws a ton of strikes...OTOH, they might be the next wave of interesting relief arms...Even then, looks like Burke is the most interesting there considering his velocity and IIRC he has a good slider. I ended last year pretty optimistic on the position players in the system, and I'm still there. OTOH, there just aren't alot of guys I like who project to SP, and if they do its as a very low upside one. Really hoping Simpson picks up as the year goes on, because the next most interesting arm after McNutt is Wells 2-3 levels below him. I don't think either Cruz or Liria were top foreign signings. Cruz is more fastball/breaking ball. Change-up is still in development. Liria has a change-up that he uses on occasion. I have no idea why you thought Liria was left handed. If Liria ever gained command, he would be an interesting starting pitcher prospect, as he has a fastball that, last summer, topped out in the mid-90's, had a breaking ball that showed potential, and had a usable change. The command, though, is simply not there. I don't know if they think he's purely a pen arm now or if they are simply trying to work with him on things. This was supposed to be the first wave of pitching hitting full season ball, with another "wave" next season, but like the "wave" that hit Peoria this year, it's a lot of raw arms. There's Jose Arias, who I did not realize was so big, Starling Peralta, Amaury Paulino. All three were relatively more well-regarded than Liria, so there's a chance one or two of them breaks through, but at least with Peralta and Paulino, I believe AzPhil has indicated that they occasionally have issues with command as well (not 100% sure, though). Carlos Martinez was over-hyped by Phil Rogers I think (Rogers said he was hitting 94 and throwing a good change, AzPhil seems to disagree with that assessment). I really don't recall what Brian Smith throws right now, but I recall thinking that, if everything was perfect for him, maybe a mid-rotation ceiling. Then, there's Scott, Maples, Maltos-Garcia, Elias, Urban, and a couple more, some really raw kids. I expect the next draft some focus on pitching and pitching ceiling. At least, I'm hoping. There's a fair amount of mid-rotation ceiling guys in full-season ball.

Exciting day. Szczur and Easterling with a hit! Next thing you know, Vitters will start hitting homers, and Marco Hernandez will start getting on base. One step at a time!

I'm assuming you are talking about the MiLB picture? He looks awfully old in that picture.

Problem is, who do you call up? Baez has been in a slump, and there seems to be indications that this year is a very long-view oriented focus, so I'm not all that sold anymore that we'll definitely see him in Peoria before Boise starts. Amaya? You have to call someone up to take his spot, and I'm not sure who that option is. To be fair, I did say earlier that I thought early May was probably the point at which a decision should be made if he is still struggling, but who do you go to to give the AB's? I guess you could give them to a guy like Soccorro, but nothing personal against Kenny, he doesn't have much prospect value, and in that situation, I'd rather just give Marco a bit more time and see how he does as the weather warms up. Long run, I still feel Rosario is better off in the pen with his fastball/slider, but I'm happy they are giving him a look as a starter. He was ... decent the first start, ran into a bad 4th in the 2nd start, and then simply wore down last time out. ______ What I'd like to see, but I doubt it'll happen this early, is Burke shifted into Cruz's spot, have Cruz piggyback off of Wells. I'd like to see what Kyler can do with an extended workload, because considering his age and minor league FA status after this year, we have to find out soon. If he can't hack it with longer workloads, then you can ponder fast-tracking him as a pen arm.

I haven't been paying close attention to the game, but it sounded like Francescon's slider was really fooling the Lugnut batters early.

Rotation? Only in an emergency would be my guess. Wood is ahead of him lefty wise, and in an emergency, Coleman probably gets the nod (40 man status). But you never know. In the pen? Wouldn't rule it out. Doubt it, but wouldn't rule it out. My guess is that he's a slightly better JR Mathes - a guy who is in our AAA rotation for a couple years. He really needs a lot of things to happen to get a shot, IMO, as some of those AA arms might get called up ahead of him if they needed a starter, and Beliveau/Maine, and maybe Antigua, are ahead of him as lefties to throw in the pen.

Well, Loosen's been on the shelf since that first start. There wasn't any report of an injury (to my knowledge). Could be they wanted to give him another go, or could be he had a minor injury and was finally healthy. He's a mildly intriguing arm in his own right, although with no real plus pitch, more of a "4/5" deep arsenal type of guy profile. *Raisin notes he was on the DL. I haven't really been paying attention, so perhaps he just go off injury and this was the best slot for him. And I see Casey Harman got the bump to AA as a result. As for Francescon, he's a "rotation" guy who isn't getting a full-workload (whereas Jensen is averaging 6). That is, he doesn't have a set piggyback partner (Wells/Burke). I mean, betting money on most of these arms is "reliever", so yeah, he might be a reliever, but if the change develops into a plus pitch, that's a mid-rotation ceiling (fastball/curve being average projections), along with his solid command. The other note is that, despite my intrigue with the arms in Peoria to start the year, some of them haven't gotten off to good starts/developed. Liria occasionally comes in early (he came in for Francescon in the 4th in Francescon's first start), but he still doesn't show command, by most accounts. Cruz is still mostly in the high 80's. The one non-starter/piggyback guy throwing fairly well is Yao-lin Wang.

I believe Francescon started at another school, quit baseball for a year, and then landed at Treveca (unless I'm thinking of another prospect that ended up going the small school route). For the most part, he's viewed as a guy with a good change that is in the low 90's with an average breaking ball (this doesn't really go against UK's report, he said PJ's curve projects as ML average, but that his change had good arm action so the report doesn't really run counter to the other reports out there, just could've been an off day on the change). Ceiling isn't high, but I've heard that MWL scouts were impressed with his polish last year. Granted, he made most of his MWL outings last year out of the pen. His ultimate ceiling is probably a mid-rotation starter if the change becomes plus. Have heard that his fastball was a bit faster last year out of the pen, so he could be a fast/change guy out of the pen perhaps, but even then, hard to see it as anything more than a middle reliever.

I really hope Penalver gets more time at short. The early scouting reports released on him suggested a potentially good defender there. Granted, there were offensive questions (so we may be looking more Eliot Soto than a starter). As a side note, Arismendy Alcantara is having an interesting season. Walks and K's are roughly near last year's mark, but power is way up in the SSS so far, and BABIP suggests some bad luck on batted ball. I'm not exactly a "fan" or gung-ho about him, but Marwin Gonzalez took some time to develop into something that people were intrigued with, and Alcantara probably has better shortstop ability than Marwin. Something worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses (of course, Marwin never K'd as much and walked more, but maybe Alcantara adjusts as he matures).

Lalli is pitching. Never thought I'd see that again.

ah, your right. Just kept thinking Super Two and not about the implications as it relates to FA. That said, still don't think Brett Jackson is coming up anytime before the summer months, and still wouldn't be surprised if they kept him in the minors until late summer.

My hunch is that it's going to take a little longer (didn't Castro come up in early May and still make Super-Two?) Either way, I really don't anticipate Brett Jackson until the summer months at best, and it wouldn't really stun me if we didn't see him until the fall.

Jin-Yeong Kim was a high bonus South Korean kid (in Raisin's sticky, it lists 850K, for some reason, I thought it was higher). The talk, when we signed him, was that he was a polished arm with 4 pitches and good control. The flip side was that, I don't recall any report suggesting he had plus stuff, and there wasn't much expectation that he would get significantly bigger. I've never been that big on Kim, and I believe AzPhil has said that Kim has never impressed him in XST work, and that he felt Yao-lin Wang, who doesn't have a huge ceiling, was a better pitcher, or something like that.

I guess it'll really come down to if that change-up develops. Hard to see him making it up the ladder with 4seam/2seam/curve/slider as his arsenal. Considering he's working a full workload (avg 6 ip per outing), if he keeps this up, hard to not see him hit Daytona at some point this summer. As a side note, I'm pretty certain the fastball numbers are basically what he's hitting this year (he might be topping out a tick higher on the 4-seam, but it could be a gun location issue as well). I just don't know about the quality of his breaking balls and the development of his change-up. ______ As a total side note, I was as big on Marco Hernandez as anyone, and my intrigue hasn't died down, but BABIP can only go so far to explain his early struggles. He's striking out at twice the rate that he did in rookie ball. A jump was expected, and 50-60 AB's (too lazy to check the exact number) is a very SSS, but it is a troubling note to keep track of.

I haven't been following all that closely, but there hasn't been anything to suggest that the reports of a 4-seamer that tops out around 93/94, a 2-seamer that comes in a tick or so below speed wise, and a good curve is off, so that's what I'm assuming right now. He was working on a slider and change-up, but haven't heard much of them yet. One could make the case that in full-season ball right now, Jensen has one of the higher ceilings for Cubs starters, which is partly the benefit of the unknown/being further away. But he probably has to figure out a change-up to really stick as a starter.

Tough luck for Jensen. Superb start (so far, 7ip, 2 h, 1 bb, 6 K's, 2 unearned, 12:4 GO/FO, I think he's done now), but he was matched by Jarret Martin (hits around 94/95 on the fastball and 2 solid, but not plus, secondary options, off the top curve and a change). Considering how the Peoria lineup has struggled at times, not surprised that a guy armed with that sort of stuff could put up a strong 11 K outing when his control was on. Here's hoping the P-Chiefs rally.

Just noticed that both Felix Pie (wow, he's 27 already huh) and Marquez Smith are on the Camden Riversharks roster.

AzPhil had this to say about Taylor Scott over at TCR: http://www.thecubreporter.com/2012/04/20/cubs-rally-avoid-double-dip-sweep-fitch-park#new

I can see it go either way. Sounds like he has the tools to be solid at 2nd, but the dearth of 3rd base talent in the system, assuming he can't stick at short, makes me want to send him that way. But sure, 2nd makes some sense. A lot may depend a bit on what happens with Castro. I imagine Castro's sticking at short for the next couple of years, though.

Haven't heard anything on an injury, so I wonder if it's a mental break of some sort. That said, who knows, maybe we'll find out there was an injury a few days later. Sure hope the 6/7 hitters for Peoria can start breaking out a bit. Looks like Daytona's lineup got tired of being walked over. Rohan with a slam! Torreyes with a walk and a triple. Some good news!

I actually wasn't as enthused about Torreyes as most, but I'd be surprised if he didn't hit some. When you only have one plus tool, you can get exposed at times, and a mini-slump can look awfully bad.