mlpeel

Close: the second time a player goes on waivers within a waiver period (there are 4 per year), the waiver request can't be withdrawn. So a player can go on waivers 4 times in a year without the club being at risk of losing him. Those are exactly the guys who *don't* get claimed on waivers. If a team claims such a player on waivers and the claim is allowed to stand, it now owns that player's contract -- with all the obligations that entails. If, on the other hand, the player clears waivers and is released (or refuses an assignment and becomes a free agent), the waiving club has to pay his contract. Any other club can sign that player for pro-rated major league minimum (which they actually pay to the club paying his salary).

If a club requests waivers on a player and then withdraws the request, it is prohibited by rule from requesting waivers on that player for 30 days from the date the previous request was withdrawn. If it puts him on waivers again 30 days after a claim/withdrawal and a new waiver period hasn't started, the waivers request cannot be withdrawn. These rules sharply limit the usefulness of your suggestion of how things work.

As noted in another post, Corey's major league service time is irrelevant: calendar time determines the need for waivers before optional assignments. Hendry was free to trade Patterson without waivers. After the July 31 trading deadline, that won't be true -- but on July 31, the waivers currently secured on Patterson's contract will expire (they will also expire automatically if the Cubs promote Patterson to the big league club again before July 31). If the Cubs want to trade Corey after July 31, they'll have to pass him through waivers again. Not until he reaches 5 years of service, which won't happen until sometime next June at the earliest -- and the longer he remains in the minors this year, the longer that will take. Big league service time does not accumulate for guys optioned to the minors, only for guys on the major league 25 man active roster or a major league disabled list.

Of the players who were originally signed by the Cubs (I don't know the detailed transaction history of guys like Barrett or Ramirez to say for certain), Ohman, Wood, and Zambrano are the only ones with options who would have to clear waivers for an optional assignment. Well, check that: Maddux still has 2 option years left...

Somebody call? Your statement is not completely true, SC, though it is usually correct. The qualifier that determines the need for waivers is *not* major league service time, as some in this thread have stated, but a.) how long it has been since the date the player first reported to the active list of the major league team, and b.) how many option years he had remaining at that time. In the current instance, Patterson made his major league debut on September 18, 2000 (I believe Patterson reported the same day he made his debut; the date isn't more than a day or two off at most, so I'll use it as though it was the reporting date); he had all 3 options remaining at that time (actually, he was technically eligible for a fourth option year under MLR 11©; but since his callup occurred after the end of the 2002 minor league seasons, there was no time window to exercise that fourth option and it evaporated with the end of the 2002 season). Since he had 3 option years, he did not have to clear waivers to use an option until 3 *calendar* years had passed; that is, as of September 18, 2003, Patterson had to clear waivers before he could be optioned to the minors. Prior to that date, he could be optioned freely -- and he was in the 2001 season. Please note that Patterson did *not* have 3 years of major league service until midway through the 2004 season; under the Basic Agreement, 3 years of service time affects outright assignments to the minors but not optional assignments (see below). Just to recap, the clock for waivers starts ticking on the day the player first reports to the big league club (so it's July 8, 2005, for both Matt Murton and Adam Greenberg, even though Murton made his major league debut and Greenberg didn't) and the clock expires after the number of calendar years elapsed equals the number of option years the player had remaining at the time he reported. After the clock expires, it doesn't matter how many options the player still has remaining: he must clear waivers first before a remaining option (if any) can be used. The purpose of this rule is to prevent clubs from optioning established players to the minors as punishment. Obviously, a productive player will not clear waivers (not usually, anyway): another major league club will put in a claim, preventing the optional assignment, on the theory that if the waiving club is dumb enough not to want this guy, we'll take him (which is the point of the waiver rule in the first place: if a player is good enough for the league, the other clubs will decide that by claiming him rather than letting him leave the league). And yes, when a player has no more options, he must clear waivers before his contract can be assigned to the minors. This is called an outright assignment: the player is transferred from the major league club's 40 man reserve list to the minor league club's reserve list (35-38 players, depending on the level), though the major league club is still on the hook for any guaranteed clauses in the major league contract. When waivers (including special waivers) are requested for the purposes of outrighting a player to the minors, they can't be withdrawn: if another team claims him, the player will stay in the majors with the claiming team (or the team with the highest waiver priority when more than one team puts in a claim). The Basic Agreement grants players rights against being outrighted to the minors. A player who has at least 3 years of major league service (Patterson) or who has been outrighted to the minors before (Dubois) can refuse the assignment and become a free agent; in both cases, if the player accepts and goes to the minors, he gets another chance at free agency after the season unless the team adds him back to the major league reserve list. Note this applies only to outright assignments: Corey had no ability to refuse an optional assignment. Also under the Basic Agreement, a player who has 5 years of major league service cannot be assigned to the minors at all (either outright or optionally) without his prior written consent. If Patterson returns to the big leagues soon, then in about a year the Cubs (or the team he's traded to) won't have the option of optioning Corey to the minors even though he'll still have an option left: he completed his fourth year of major league service before the end of June, so he's less than a year in the bigs from having the right to refuse any kind of minor league demotion.

He was careful not to betray any opinion. I got no impression that he was impressed or exasperated or bored or anything -- though a couple of questions made him laugh. I daresay it seemed much like "Down on the Farm" or interviews by other fan sites.

I do have an interview scheduled with Hughes, but that's for my research: I won't have room for anyone else's questions, and I'm not clear how much of the topic matter will be of interest to NSBB readers. But if I haven't exasperated him after that interview, I can sound him out about answering NSBB questions at some future time.

If this question is directed to me, I'm afraid you'll have to rephrase it: I don't know what you're trying to ask.

Consarn it, vance, you spoiled my surprise. There's a 100% chance of it: I arranged it before I arranged this interview with Mr. Fleita. Though perhaps I shouldn't say 100%: Mr. Stockstill's about 50 times harder to catch up to than Mr. Fleita...

It's not too hard to read a little more between the lines. Contrast his comments on Guzman ("his future is in the rotation") with those on Ryu ("As to starter or reliever, that depends on our needs") and Hill ("In my mind he's a starter in AA this year, but he has to earn it."). Guzman's got nothing to prove to him except health; the other guys might get elbowed aside if they don't show enough.

No, that was John Connolly the Cubs got from the Tigers -- but Mr. Fleita named Connolly alongside Marshall as a possible fast-mover this year. I wasn't at all surprised he named Marshall, but Connolly caught me off-guard there...

I got a sense there'll be more, but that Blasko and Wylie were the guys he was certain couldn't make it to the starting line. For at least 3 outings I know of, Ryu was sitting at 93-94 at Lansing. Tae Li, his former interpreter, told me J. K. topped at 98 that year. I have Ohman topping at 94 last year, hitting 93 fairly often, and working 90-92. A major league average fastball for a lefty is 88-89. Considering that I did rate Marshall in my top 5, I didn't mind hearing that myself. Those questions came towards the very end; he didn't sound tired, but his answers got a bit more clipped. I daresay it's a bit trying to sit for an hour answering questions over the phone...

I was quite surprised when he said that: I wrote that part in all caps. He wasn't specific, but gave the impression of working in the middle 90s. As long as you keep in mind that the operating reference was John Cangelosi, a career bench guy who topped 200 ABs only 3 times in a 13 season career...

He responded on the fly. If you listened to the recording of Down on the Farm someone posted, that's a pretty fair sample of how he talks. For the interview, I sometimes discussed his answers with him a bit to draw out a little more info (much more so at the beginning of the intervew than the end), but usually it wasn't necessary. And you do have to expect the farm director to be positive about the guys whose careers he controls. He knows these players are likely to find out about any remark he makes about them.

Let's hope not: cheeseburgers played some part in Carlos's move from 220 to 250... Fortunately, his wife made him cut that stuff out.

Did he just say he rated Murton above Dubois, Pie, Harvey? WOW. I wonder if he knows this site has people in the media writing it, thus resulting in them talking up Murton and building his trade value. Fleita also referred to Pie and Harvey as high ceiling guys and praised BA's Cubs prospect list -- in which Murton didn't make the Top 10. I interpreted his remarks to mean Murton was above everyone in strike zone judgement and maturity, not that he was the top outfield prospect. I probably should have asked him to clarify a little, but we were more than half an hour along and less than halfway through the list of questions.

I was running out of time by then, so I stopped posing followup questions to elicit more detail. Still didn't get through all the questions... Would you have been happier if he'd said Brownlie had shoulder damage?

Yes, he comes across all too clearly on the radio sometimes...

My word! :o You don't like Ronnie Woo-Woo? Our unofficial mascot? I had my fill of Ronnie out in the bleachers back in the Kingman days; my overstock of his act hasn't run out yet.

Hope so; thanks for posting your experiences!

That ended the Down on the Farm session -- so now, my real Convention could begin. John Stockstill on Grant Johnson: fastball topped at 97 last season, but his slider needs work. He fell to the Cubs' spot in the draft because teams felt he was over-pricing himself, *not* because of his arm injury the previous year. He'll probably start at Peoria, but may make Daytona. Oneri Fleita: The Cubs still maintain their Venezuelan academy in Puerto Cabello, but have no plans to send the players there to the Venezuelan Summer League. When they're ready to face competition, they'll continue going to the Cubs' Dominican academy, which can accomodate 64 players. The Cubs are thinking of fielding 2 DSL teams as some other organizations do. The Cubs tried to re-sign Scott Chiasson, but he felt he'd have better chances elsewhere and left. Renyel Pinto's big improvement this year was due to increased maturity rather than an improved pitch or better location. SS Nate Frese did not lose any running speed to the double fracture of his leg last spring. Had that not happened, Fleita felt he had a chance to make the big league team. As it is, Frese is ready for camp right now. The room was just about clear by this time; I spotted Gary Hughes sitting in the middle of the room (he was just about the only person there). Like most scouts, he was a most affable soul; he and I started chatting, soon joined by his wife and Rich (who had just happened to be chatting also; Rich's conversation with Mrs. Hughes was why Mr. Hughes was still sitting around there). Some of his comments: Gary Hughes: I really enjoyed the session Alan Schwarz set up for the scouting/stats debate. Bobby Brownlie has the same kind of command and head for pitching as Greg Maddux; Brownlie just needs the experience. (I challenged this statement, and Hughes stuck to it: *Maddux* is the comp. Think about that.) Zambrano is better than Prior or Wood. And like all scouts, Hughes had a fund of stories. During the session, Dave Otto had pointed out that John Stockstill's first draft pick was Mark Prior. Hughes mentioned that and said, "Ask me where my first draft pick is." The answer: San Quentin, doing 13 years. He recounted how he became Montreal's scouting director when Jim Fanning was fired for drafting Pete Incaviglia; Incaviglia didn't want to play for the Expos and forced a trade to the Rangers (causing an amendment to baseball's rulebook, now referred to as the Incaviglia Rule, to prevent Inky's strong-arm tactics from working again). Fanning's second round pick that day: Randy Johnson. When the Expos traded Johnson to Seattle for Mark Langston, the guy Montreal *really* regretted losing in the deal was RHR Gene Harris. And he mentioned how he was on a Baseball America list of top scouts a few years back, "And now I'm the only guy on that list who's still alive." Hughes's departure cleared out the Cubs personnel, but we still had one more stop: Rich wanted to meet up with some SABR members hawking their books downstairs. We found the stall where Dave Zeman (who used to take my newsletter) and Stuart Shea were located along with a woman from their publishing company. I bought Stuart's book -- "Wrigley Field: The Unauthorized Biography" -- and invited him to visit NSBB. I told him, "It's not really a SABR crowd, but there are a lot of Baseball Prospectus readers." Stuart answered, "You know, Chris is on Prospectus." Yes, the "woman from the publishing company" was Chris Kahrl, who writes the Transactions analysis for Prospectus. We talked a lot of baseball; perhaps the most interesting discussion involved something Rich teased out from the Convention. Rich had asked MacPhail if Washington was going to become a major market team; we were quite surprised when MacPhail said no, that the franchise was likely to struggle despite selling 30,000 season tickets (a figure which surprised the Cubs). It turned out this wasn't just MacPhail's opinion: ticketing director Frank Maloney told Rich that "he wouldn't have any problem buying tickets for the Cubs at Washington on the day of the game." Evidently, the idea that the Nationals won't do very well in Washington runs deep in the Cubs organization. None of us could buy that; Chris rattled off some demographic data supporting the idea that Washington should do well. MacPhail also said the move into D. C. was likely to be just the first of several franchise shifts -- implying that perhaps the Nationals weren't going to stay there long. We were left wondering if there was more to the Washington deal than meets the eye. The only jarring note of the day: I saw Ronnie Woo while we were searching for the bookstand. If I'd just left after meeting Hughes, I would have had a Ronnie Woo-free Convention. But on a day like Sunday, nothing could get too bad: I only *saw* Ronnie, I didn't *hear* him. So even that cloud had its silver lining. All in all, the 2005 Convention turned out to be the most fun of any I've attended.

Down on the Farm is the session that brought me to the Cubs Convention in the first place; this year's best session (in fact, the best session I've ever seen at a Convention) was Baseball Renaissance, but Down On the Farm is my perennial favorite. There was a somewhat better quality of questions this year than most years -- a pleasant surprise. There was a ringer in the crowd: one of Fleita's sons got up to the mike and asked a question (prompting his father to say, "You can ask a better question than that!") Dave Otto was back again this year to help the young players (this year, Jon Leicester and Jason Dubois) handle the questions; evidently the Cubs view this as an opportunity for the players to learn to handle speaking to crowds in public. Dave kept saying Fleita and Stockstill have been with the Cubs for 5 years; I guess that's kind of accurate, since both will have their 5th anniversaries in their current positions next August. But Fleita joined the Cubs as the manager at Williamsport (same level as Boise now) back in 1995, just in time to be Woodie's second manager. Stockstill joined the Cubs as a scout back in 1987 -- and he was a player in the system for 4 years back when Andy MacPhail was the assistant director of scouting and the farm system (evidently Gordon Goldsberry cut Stockstill as a player when Dallas Green took over, but later hired him back as a scout). Apparently Cubman15 was the guy who beat me to the mike (that's okay with me; I don't really like to go first). He's already described his question and the answer he received elsewhere in this thread. I came with a question for each person on the panel. I asked Jon Leicester about the positions he played as an amateur. He said he had always pitched a little, but he'd mostly played third base -- "But I couldn't hit." Jason Dubois's mother used to subscribe to my newsletter; at that time, she'd said her other son Kyle (who has twice been drafted by the Cubs) was throwing in the low 90s after recovering from Tommy John surgery. I asked Jason for an update on Kyle's condition: he said Kyle's ready to roll, projected to be Old Dominion's #1 starter this year. Mr. Fleita said former Red Sox manager Grady Little would be back with the Cubs this season, replacing Scott Servais (now a scout for Colorado) as the catching coordinator. He'll instruct the catchers, but also give the Cubs the benefit of his long experience (over 1000 wins as a minor league manager) for talent evaluation and the functioning of the system. Mr. Stockstill gave an overview of the process of scouting a player. These days, players usually come to the Cubs attention through showcases and summer leagues for college players -- though, as is true for international scouting, contacts may recommend players too. The Cubs keep tabs By the time the school seasons start, the Cubs will generally have around 110 players they consider candidates for the first 3 rounds. The area scouts start following these players in particular; the 3 crosscheckers and Stockstill himself then travel around to follow up on the reports of the area scouts, trying to compare the players the area scouts say are top round picks to set the Cubs draft board. Other answers of interest: The Cubs brass seem unanimous that Ryan Harvey is the organization's third best prospect (no argument from me). But Stockstill remarked that Harvey was 3 to 5 years away -- *not* the kind of fast track development schedule typical of impact players. When asked about the decision to expose Sisco and Hagerty to the Rule 5 draft, Fleita stated that Hagerty's Tommy John surgery in spring of 2003 did *not* go smoothly. This explains why the Cubs could be so impressed at the way Hagerty was recovering (I heard a lot of sunshine about Luke's progress following the operation), yet he was only able to pitch a limited amount of time at a very low level: Hagerty started his rehab with his arm in poorer condition than most TJ recoverees. Nic Jackson is healthy again, hoping to play his way back into the organization's plans -- but Fleita didn't sound all that optimistic about that possibility. The Cubs haven't given up on Luis Montanez, pointing out his good winter in Puerto Rico and his age: if he'd gone to college, he'd be no further along in the system than he is now. When the Cubs got struck with a rash of injuries to their high level prospects a year or two back, they conducted a study of minor league injuries. The result: the Cubs had suffered a fairly ordinary number of injuries; it was their concentration among the good prospects that was unusual. Even so, the Cubs have added a rehab coordinator at Mesa, and will hire interns to assist the trainers for every minor league team. Richard Lewis would probably have been a September callup but for his ankle fracture. The screw was removed from his ankle in December, and his rehab is proceeding smoothly, but he won't be ready to play until after spring training. Asked about possible replacements at third if Aramis Ramirez gets hurt, Fleita first mentioned some minor league free agents who will be in camp, then brought up Ronnie Cedeno (who has the strongest infield arm in the system) and Cody Ransom. The most interesting name was the one he *didn't* say: Matt Craig. Sounds like there may be a move to first base in Craig's future... Someone asked Jon Leicester if the team moves a player's stuff when he gets called up. Leicester replied that players are on their own, the team will just reimburse them for some expenses -- but when you're called up to the big leagues, you don't care. When you get sent back down, *then* you care... My friend Rich asked the players if they have set any specific goals for the off-season, like learning a new pitch. Leicester replied his only goal is to get better. Rich also asked Fleita what his proudest accomplishment is in terms of player development. Because of the way Rich posed his 2 questions, he received no answer at that time -- but a SABR member is never easily deflected from his baseball questions: Fleita told Rich afterward that setting up the Latin American operation is his best accomplishment. Asked about developing pitchers to be relievers in the minors, Fleita mentioned how its hard for a youngster to get in enough work as a reliever; also, it's easier to switch a pitcher from starting to relief than vice versa. He said Leicester's program, when he was moved to the bullpen, was to throw 35 pitches every 3rd day: it didn't matter how many innings (or batters) it took to throw 35 pitches, that was Jon's workload. Fleita still likes Guzman the best of the pitchers in the system, but admits that he's got to get healthy. Sean Marshall's twin brother was selected before him in the draft; hence Marshall is "motivated". Billy Petrick has a lower body comparable to Roger Clemens. I can attest his upper body isn't weak either... Someone asked about Elvin Puello, a third baseman from the Dominican Republic who played in a U. S. short season league last year. Fleita described him as having enough athleticism to play shortstop, but "he'll swing at the rosin bag". Puello should start the season at Peoria. Cuban defector Raul Valdez, a lefthander, should have been in Double-A last year (if you saw his stats in the DSL, you already know he sure as heck didn't belong there!), but the Cubs were late acquiring visas and didn't have all of their requests filled -- hence the large number of NDFAs the Cubs signed after the last draft: the Latin youngsters who were supposed to fill those spots couldn't come to the U. S. Including Valdez: he was forced to stay in the Dominican Republic, where he toyed with hapless teenage hitters (for those of you who don't know, Valdez is 27). Eric Patterson is a 60 runner with no much power; his brother was (and is) an 80 runner with lots of power. For reference's sake, Stockstill mentioned that if the 20-80 scouting scale ran higher, Dwaine Bacon would be "120" (similarly, Shawon Dunston's arm strength would have graded at 150). Corey's little bro should start at Peoria. Fleita expects Koronka and Pinto to make Iowa's rotation, but said J. K. Ryu is on the AAA/AA bubble -- and that he may shift to the bullpen. Glenallen Hill, one of the coaches in the Arizona Fall League, raved about Brian Dopirak's makeup. Micah Owings, an unsigned Cubs pick in the last draft, had a higher ceiling as an outfielder (figuring as no more than a middle reliever on the mound), but also more risk of failure. Felix Pie's caught-stealing woes are partly inability to read pitcher moves, partly a need for better technique. Vince Coleman (whose motto is "You can't be right if you're afraid to be wrong") will continue working with him. The Cubs farm system is for developing players, but Fleita stresses winning: "As long as you're going to play, play to win." Still, development needs often overrule managerial moves to win the game. Former Cubs prospect Joey Nation is trying to latch on in pro ball as a pitching coach or a scout. Catchers are the hardest position to develop; as a result, the position gets overdrafted. John Koronka (great change, knows how to pitch) has a chance to be a starter in the big leagues; he's not just a potential LOOGY.

Thanks for the solid writeup, Jon. Not much left for me to say (but you *know* that won't stop me); I can only supplement your account in a few spots. But you will see them: my friend Rich confirmed with Carl Rice, the Cubs' Director of IS, that these pictures will be posted on the Cubs web site. But not until after the city has seen and approved them: the people at this session really did see these first, even before the City of Chicago... Which is why the bleachers will now be connected with the rest of the ballpark: bleacherites will have access to the triangle building also. The additions will push out 8 feet toward the street. There will be wheelchair access and seating in the bleachers. This was in response to a lady who asked why she couldn't pay to upgrade her tickets for open seats. Maloney added, "They don't call us up saying they can't come." And McGuire cracked, "Believe me, we've racked our brains how to sell these no-shows." Mark Kanges posed the question that prompted this answer. The seats will cost about $250 a pop for Prime games. Ernie59 posed this question, the last of the session: "Are you going to do something about the *embarrassing* 7th inning guests? A substantial proportion of the crowd cracked up. Thank *you*, Jon; it's only your due after all your great work at NSBB. Glad you had fun!

From what I can see, Marshall has the potential to become a solid #3 even on a strong pitching staff, the kind of guy who'd be a #2 on most teams. Pinto's at least a #4/#3, maybe he has a straight #3 in him. That's why I think it's so interesting that MacPhail rates Pinto higher: he sees something there I don't. I would love to know what it is.

Personally, I doubt it. Now that his pitching shoulder has already been weakened by injuries, it's just waiting to give again. I have a suspicion that the root problem is the big overhand curve Guzman throws: every season he's had it in his arsenal, he's gotten hurt, but the season he didn't, he stayed healthy. I do rate Marshall higher than Pinto -- not dramatically higher, but higher. It's possible I could find out things that might change that assessment, but that's where I stand right now. Marshall didn't hurt his pitching arm, and in my experience pitchers usually recover well from hand injuries, so I don't give that much weight; if it becomes an annual event, that would be different. Pitchers with good control in the minors generally have a better chance of reaching their ceilings than pitchers who struggle to gain control -- but generally speaking, control pitchers have lower ceilings. But I think Marshall has a higher ceiling than Pinto, so I have to put him ahead. Barring a spring training injury to someone else pencilled onto the staff, I don't think it's too likely Mitre will start next season in the rotation (he could fool me with a blowout spring, but the guys with bigger contracts will get preference). But could he finish the year in the rotation? Not farfetched at all.