twothousandfive

Isn't Gathright's role to be defensive replacement for Soriano, as well as to platoon with Hoffpauir whenever Soriano and/or Bradley get hurt? If it was just as injury protection, he could stay in AAA. But in a one run game, if Soriano isn't coming up soon, I don't want him in the field. I gotta' figure, by now, Piniella doesn't either.

If so, it surely complicates things, because you then almost have to either take Cedeno out of the deal (if SD wants him) or find someone else to back-up in middle infield. I'd guess that to a contender -- the only team willing to maybe give up a vet for a prospect -- Theriot may have more value because he can play short and second. If Toronto believe they are a contender, Scutaro, McDonald, Hill, Inglet aren't enough. Maybe a guy like Brad Mills is possible, but I doubt it. Cleveland might also be able to use a middle infielder -- and I suppose Theriot can move to third. Maybe Zach Putnam, but probably not David Huff, could be pried away for Theriot. I don't see how he makes the difference for Peavy. It seems Towers may be looking for something along the lines of the Harden deal. Marshall isn't quite as appealing as Gallagher, Murton & Patterson probably don't match Vitters & Pie (but Beane may have been high on Murton) and they could probably add Castillo to match Donaldson. But it is also sensible for SD to want another potential major league pitcher, so that probably is the mis-match. Towers might be willing to take Marshall, Pie, Vitters and Ceda, but that last name is a bit tough to add in right now. That's a pretty big opportunity cost for Gregg. But maybe Towers can't find anyone interested, and he'll take Ascanio.

Assuming the Cubs are willing to take on the contract, even with the option guaranteed, it's $81 million over the next five years. Z had another four years at $18 million/year. They are almost exactly the same age, same experience. Maybe Z has a slightly lower value due to injuries, but he's come through them quickly and seemingly fine. If the Cubs had to move Zambrano, would they demand at least one guy who was all-but guaranteed to be a starter the next season, and another guy who could maybe someday be an All-Star? Marshall can be a replacement in the rotation, but not certain to stick and pitch an entire season. Vitters comes closest to the potential All-Star label. I'd think they'd need two in each category. They have nothing at 2B, so maybe that gets Theriot in the mix. Theriot, Marshall, Vitters and. . . Castillo? Seems to me that's the minimum. To match the Santana deal from a year ago (and they probably have to beat it since Peavy is under contract) maybe Vitters or Pie matches Gomez (but I don't quite think so) then Marshall, Veal and Wuertz match the three pitchers the Mets gave up? I think that's what makes it a tough match (in addition to 40-man roster challenges.) Maybe the Cubs can put Pie and Marshall in a deal for, say, Elbert from the Dodgers (Kemp goes in another deal?), and then move him plus Vitters and someone else (Castillo? Theriot?) Would the Dodgers be interested in a SS to help make the deal happen?

If these talks are serious, doesn't Chicago also have to move more quickly on the RF solution? If Florida demands Pie as part of a package for Hermida, for instance, doesn't Hendry have to find out now, and then see if he can keep Pie out of a SD deal, maybe replaced with Vitters? If this were to go down as written already, the Cubs would still have enough left to get Hermida, and maybe still have a sixth (non-Marquis) starter or two available. Though, I can't believe SD is willing to do this. If I'm them, I'm asking for nothing but pitching -- Marmol, Veal, Ceda, Marshall.

Boggs, Brett, Robinson, Schmidt, Kell are on the Veteran's Committee. I always think of Molitor at 3B, I can't imagine anyone considers Ripken a 3B. Johnny Bench never played B (It never happened! Is that clear??!!) Out of 63 guys on the Vets committee, 10% are 3B. I think there are as many or more 3B than shortstops or catchers.

I think those win shares also kind of show that Brooks Robinson was pretty good. So, that sort of diminishes the negative argument using Robinson. If his contemporaries (HoF contemporaries) are so convinced he belongs in the HoF, one might think the Veterans Committee would put him in (or would have done so already). Could it be the pitchers who don't think he belongs? Bunning, Carlton, Eckersley, Ford, Feller, Fingers, Gibson, Gossage, Jenkins, Koufax, Marachial, Niekro, Perry, Roberts, Ryan, Seaver, Sutter, Sutton? If you include Fisk and Ryan and Gossage as contemporaries, I think 75% of the voters are contemporaries (or preceded Santo). Mike Schmidt only gets one vote. Why are another 20 or so not convinced? Could these be the no votes: Berra, Boggs, Brett, Carter, Doerr, Feller, Ford, Gwynn, Kell, Molitor, Murray, Ripken, Schmidt, Ozzie Smith, Sutter, Winfield, Yount? Maybe Sparky Anderson, Earl Weaver, Dick Williams, Red Schoendienst, Lee MacPhail, are keeping him out? And, is it me, or are there a lot of 3B on the veterans committee?

I question the idea that it is a no-brainer that Santo belongs in the HoF for several reasons: Someone has to be the best player not in the HoF. Was he clearly better than, say, Torre? Hodges, Allen? Brooks Robinson is such a clear aberration in talent, rep and HoF status, that he's a useless point of comparison. 3B is under-represented. If that is part of the argument in favor, it has to be applied to probably 5-10 other 3B. Who are they, and I suspect some of them would help explain why 3B is under-represented. I do agree that writers can be needlessly fickle, thus hurting their credibility to make a decision. And Santo's stats are surprisingly comparable to some I thought he would no compare to (i.e., Clemente, Williams). But when it is necessary to pick out a handful of HoFers who aren't as good, highlight the lower offensive production of the 60s, point out the home field advantages of other HoFers, I think it indicates the argument isn't open and shut. And those in the best position to really know are Santo's contemporaries. They may not be much better than the writer's on holding grudges.

Furcal is a wild card, but if they don't walk him, I'm not sure he's going to hit much. Martin got on base in Sep at an unreal rate, and Ramirez and Ethier thumped the ball for the month of September. Get past those four, and nothing looks all that worrisome. But if the Cubs starters aren't sharp, the odds of Furcal and/or Martin being on base for the thunder is scary. Marshall and Cotts can play key roles late in containing Ethier, so I think it is the starters ability to get by the first four that will be big. Tonight against Lowe, if they haven't hardened the infield and cut the grass, it will be very tough going. Soriano, Soto and Ramirez have been pretty effective against groundball pitchers. I don't have high hopes for Theriot or Lee tonight.

If Kershaw ends up in middle relief -- between he and Beimel, there is a very good chance that the Dodgers will force the Cubs to use both sides of the CF platoon, giving the Saito the advantage of facing Reed Johnson in a key situation. That seems to be worth considering for the Cubs roster -- Pie to play CF should that be required, and probably Ward to be the PH. It would also argue for either Fontenot (with DeRosa moving to RF) or Hoffpauir should a RH PH get the call if Fukudome is hitting against Beimel/Kershaw. But I don't think they'll have a RH PH.

There is a small distinction between starting, playing the field, and PH. I don't exactly know how to judge Hoffpauir's .517 OPS as a PH. Small sample size makes it impossible to use stats to analyze a PH, but it is possible the Hoffpauir isn't a fit for that spot. Ward as PH, Hoffpauir as potential replacement in RF, maybe for Lee at 1B, and as DH against righties in the WS. That assumes their is room for both on the roster.

I'm sure the Toronto Blue Jays, with the best ERA in the major leagues, will be pleased to hear that. Fukudome has a knack for contributing. His OBP is the same as Derek Lee's, better than Soriano, Cedeno, etc. and not that much lower than Hoffpauir or Fotenot. Those guys have much more power this year, and fewer Ks recently. But Fukudome has rarely gone more than two starts in a row without contributing something in the box score -- walk, hit, sacrifice, etc. Add in his strong defense, and I think he belongs, and will probably start at least the first game. Among Fotenot, Hoffpauir and Pie is where the decision will be made, I think. With Ward as the LH PH, I think Hoffpauir is left off.

I'd say no one deserves a spot unless their role can be defined and justified. Marquis can't start in the post-season -- with the days off, there is no reason for it. But he can be a help in an extra inning game, or if a starter struggles and has to be pulled before the end to the fourth. I think he's on because he has a role. Aside from the platoon players, who is the RH PH against a lefty? I still don't think they have a good option against Jon Lester at Fenway in the WS. Is Ronnie Cedeno or Hanry Blanco your DH for that game?

Joe Torre is on the Vets ballot, as well. Clearly his most recent go-round as manager is about as good as it gets, even if it shouldn't count toward HoF votes. I'm not sure Torre vs. Santo is such a clear victory for Santo -- largely because of 1966 and 1972.

I'm not yet ready to say Lee is coming around. As I glance at games log, and compare them to Ramirez (their career SLGs are very close) it seems what has been missing from Lee is multi-Xtra base hit games. I think that sort of jives with the idea that he's not hitting the ball in the air enough (tough to get to second on a grounder) which the GDIPs also support. If two days is a trend, he's going in the right direction, but I'd like to see more success. Then, if it looks as though he is coming around, he should get a couple more days off. Maybe the hurricane break was a real help. Strangely, I like the recent Ks. Maybe he's actively trying to do something different.

Hmmm. . . six innings on March 11, that would typically be followed by six on March 17 ( I think they offer the extra day early in ST) seeking spots to crank up his fastball, then six on March 22 doing much the same, see if he can go six + on March 27 perhaps holding back just a bit, Opening Day starter on April 1 (not this year, but often.) maybe going seven innings. I think Harden is right on track for the playoffs. More likely, given the challenges the hurricane will present, they can pitch him on five days against Mil on Tues, and get a sense of how he's recovering -- even predetermine that it's five innings. If he feels pretty good, then they know his first start back after an extended layoff might be subpar (but still pretty good, and he can keep going). That would offer the opportunity to give him seven days between starts and send him out against the Mets, then he can be ready on Day 5 after that for the playoffs. Or give him nine and he should be set for game three. Yesterdays start may not have been dominating, but as a lead-up to the playoffs, it fit the bill.

It is icing on the cake if all goes well, but the Cubs benefit in the playoffs if everyone else is fighting to get in -- thus can't rest players or set up their starting rotation. A Phillies sweep suggests the Brewers will have to fight both the Cards and NL East loser for the wild card, and it means the Phillies at least stay close enough to the Mets that they both have to keep fighting for the division and/or wild card. It is surprising that the Dodgers now look as though they may be in the next best position to provide some extra rest for starters at the end of the month. Sometimes that backfires and the teams that have been fighting have a level of intensity that someone who coasts into the playoffs doesn't. But after the last week, a lack of intensity shouldn't be a problem for the Cubs. With Zambrano and Harden (hopefully) comming back from extended rest, an extra day off for Dempster the next two times through the rotation, and maybe for Lilly and Marquis (?!) as well, and then should be as ready for the playoffs as they can hope. Clearly, though, it is much more important that the Cubs play well than anything else.

In "The Hustler", when Eddie Felson was clobbering Minnesota Fats, Fats went to the rest room, got clean and cool, and rolled down his sleeves, basically starting fresh. He made it clear he was starting fresh even when he was in the hole. Maybe the Cubs should try that, instead. Replay the opening Day line-up -- Pie gets the start tonight, Theriot bats lead-off and Fukudome hits fifth. That way, even if they lose, they are going to win six of their next eight.

Didn't one version of the trade (maybe when there was talk Bedard could be included) include Rich Hill as the centerpiece? Had it been Hill, Cedeno, Pie for Roberts, that would have been a terrific deal -- and I think Harden would still be on the team, but there would be a different back-up shortstop and they wouldn't have been able to wait to get Edmonds. If DeRosa plays poorly in the post-season, will those in favor of Roberts over DeRosa start a thread of there own?

Until I saw the date of the first post, i thought maybe this was a week old thread coming back. Then, things looked bad enough with Fukudome that almost anything was worth proposing. But, clearly, in the last week there is some hope -- to derail that and take away Reed Johnson's role against lefties would be silly. If a lefty reliever is brought, this alignment says Edmonds hits. Now, the Cubs still could use a RH bat to PH, play DH against lefties in late October if all goes well, and if that guy can also play corner of, well then Piniella has one more option. Fukudome against lefties has looked horrible at times. On July 31, when rosters are about the expand, they can play DH games, etc. I'd love to add a platoon option to Fukudome. I think it should be Jay Payton -- though the idea of Jay Payton as DH against Liriano is scary.

Typically that would be the right approach. I forgot about the Sunday complication, and that start probably does go to Marshall. So, how 'bout this -- send Samardzija down after pitching two innings on 8/13. Have him start in Iowa on 8/18 to keep him "stretched out" whatever that means exactly. Bring him to Chicago to start on 8/24 (or 8/25, which ever it has to be) in place of . . . Jason Marquis?

With Marquis and Harden set to go, the Cubs likely need six innings, maybe more, out of the bullpen. Both starters have averaged six innings/start this year, and each guy has gone 7+ only five times (Harden went 8 in one of those, Marquis has never gone more than 7). They'll need at least four. Lilly on Thursday is another 6 inning guy but seems to be trending higher. After two off days everyone in the pen is rested, but some guys are approaching "mucy use" to keep them sharp. Those are perhaps the worst two guys for a double header, because they must be cautious with Harden and they can't trust Marquis. Unless there is a blow-out, it'll be tricky. I'm sure Piniella and Rothschild have a plan, but I've got to think Marmol and Wood are already slotted for one game or the other. I'd think Samardzija is a definite to appear in Game 1 if it is close, with Gaudin, Howry and Marmol pitch in either game, on an as needed basis. Those three are more likely in game one, since they are also more likely to get a call tomorrow, and it'll provide an extra few hours of recovery time. If they are leading or tied, I'm thinking Marquis is followed by Samardzija then Gaudin/Howry as a bridge, if needed, to Marmol to close. If that gets a W, then a lot of pressure is off for the night cap. Both Gaudin and Howry could go tonight and tomorrow, with Marmol also available. Game two shapes up as Harden followed by Marshall, then anyone who wasn't used as a bridge, if needed, to Wood. If they use a lot of guys, could they make a roster move to get a fresh arm in Atlanta by tomorrow night? Say, option Marshall/Samardzija, and bring up . . . Ascanio? Hart?

The guys who have great numbers against lefties, and are likely to clear waivers are from Baltimore -- Payton and Millar. And possibly Garciaparra from the Dodgers. Trade the guy they got from Philly for Eyre for either of them on August 30, and I like the deal.

I assume this makes the shuttle, el, etc. unwise. Pay $45, get easy out anywhere near the stadium. You do not want a story for the rest of your life about how because you wanted to save a few bucks your wife had to take a taxi to the hospital.

Banghart, I agree that if I had to choose between Marshall and Marquis for a key start, tomorrow, I'd pick Marshall. But it is also worth asking -- who is more valuable in the pen right now? It is difficult to argue a middle reliever has as much impact as a starter, but if you are big on the L/R thing, Marshall has value in the pen that Marquis wouldn't have. And I'm not sure how much better Marshall is. To say Sean Marshall was better last year is a bit of stretch, and requires arguments no one really wants to make (Marshall's unearned runs in August should be added to his 6.18 ERA in August, Marquis' four earned runs on the final day didn't hurt the Cubs and helped convince Piniella to leave him off the post-season roster -- way to go Jason Marquis!). Marquis was mostly awful post ASB, but he was downright good in April and May. Marshall had a similar pattern, blowing up after a good May/Jun/Jul. The argument has bogged down, but much of that is because the "defense" of Marquis basically says paying his millions and the added dollars to replace him (with Kevin Hart? Ascanio? Rich Hill?) means it costs more and the staff is very likely worse. (And that replacement is needed to replace Howry). If he is the sixth best option (and I agree he is) he should stay on the staff. Lots of teams have similar or worse situations (Gil Meche, Jeff Suppan, Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva, Randy Wolf). Marquis takes the ball every fifth day, pitches somewhere around six innings, and usually let's up 3-4 runs. 15% of the time he gets shelled. The best arguments are always on the margins. I am confident we will not see Jason Marquis in the post-season, and we will see Sean Marshall. And that's the way it should be.

Which means the Cubs need a RH hitter to play DH against lefties. They can add that guy on Aug 31, but they need it. It will probably the post-season roster of a pitcher who doesn't make it (either Howry or Marquis). They rested Fukudome against a lefty on Saturday, which meant Cedeno at 2B. Cedeno can't be DH, neither can Blanco.