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Wolverineman

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Everything posted by Wolverineman

  1. Wolverineman
    I don't know, but him and Bronson Arroyo are destroying my HACKING MASS team. Its bad enough I'm ranked 1256. Bleh. I'll do better next year! Or maybe the Reds will crater and my team will get back to respectability.
  2. Wolverineman
    I would basically agree with you there. RISP #s aren't that good for clutch, though I think they're decent enough to at least use in the post I did. Ideally I would have used the WPA data at Fan Graphs, but they don't go back to previous years so it would not have been much use. I think that WPA probably is the best clutch statistic out there today, though it certainly has its flaws too. [/url]
  3. Wolverineman
    Thanks for the welcomes. Anyway, after looking at Wang's #s a little closely, I think he might be able to keep what he's doing up. His peripherals seem to support his current ERA(which from my initial glance I just assumed wasn't true. Oops.), or at least very close to it. I'd probably change my opinion from "He can't keep it up" to "He more than likely cannot do any better than this without changing something about his game". Plus the additional disclaimer as pointed out here, that with putting so many balls in play, he'll probably end up with wild swings in performance. But he's certainly a bit more valuable than I originally gave him credit for.
  4. Wolverineman
    No doubt. If he traded Ortiz, it'd make the media reaction to the Penny/LoDuca trade look minor. As for Ortiz, if he had consistantly been much better in "clutch" situations throughout his entire career, I might be inclined to believe he's some magical clutch hitter. But he hasn't. Heck, this year, his RISP numbers are below his total #s. Back in '03 he was significantly worse with RISP than he was without. Same thing happened in '02. I think whats happened is simple. He's become one of the best pure hitters in the game today, and thanks to a couple big postseason hits and a somewhat fluky year last year, he's thought of as the greatest clutch hitter ever. He's probably not, he's just a fantastic hitter who gets his hits any time, no matter the situation.
  5. Wolverineman
    The most amazing thing about his success is he's doing it in front of the Yankees defense. Which is terrible just about everywhere. I would say its very likely that he cannot keep this up without at least reducing his walk rate some. And unless he's one of the very rare starting pitchers that can exert a lot of control on the balls put in play(i.e. continously keep a low BABIP in front of bad defenses) he'll need to be on a team with a very good infield defense. I wouldn't bet a penny on him keeping his current success up on that team without something changing(k rate, bb rate, improved defense).
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