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First things first: Nico Hoerner is a good baseball player. Semantics aside, he probably borders on being a very good baseball player. Over the last two seasons, Hoerner has been the fourth-best second baseman in baseball according to fWAR, checking in with 8.6 wins above replacement. He ranks above perennial All-Star Jose Altuve, as well as other quality players like Ha-Seong Kim, Xander Bogaerts (who is two years removed from a massive 11-year, $280m contract), Ozzie Albies (though this is aided by injury), and Luis Arraez. Hoerner primarily accomplishes this through his defensive acumen, as he's both fourth in DRS and OAA. His bat remains around 4% above league average, slashing .278/.341/.378. There doesn't seem to be any reason to suggest that he will suddenly become a bad player.
Usually, it'd be strange to discuss why a team like the Cubs, who are looking to change their playoff fortunes, would be entertaining in trading a player of this caliber. Yet, we've seen a few reports, dating back to last summer, that the Cubs are internally open to the idea of doing just that. Most recently, in an article for ESPN+ readers, Jeff Passan broached the topic again, writing:
Quote"Nico Hoerner, second baseman: The Cubs don't have to trade the 27-year-old this winter, but with Matt Shaw big-league-ready, they could use Hoerner to land a starting pitcher. Hoerner's ability to play shortstop appeals to teams interested in middle-infield help."
The reality of the Cubs' situation, especially with the Cody Bellinger opt-in, is that they remain a bit tied up in terms of how they could change their offensive output. Much has been made about the wind at Wrigley last year, and hoping that the offensive climate at home is more favorable is a viable option. But if the Cubs want to be proactive and make changes on their own, a bit of creativity will be needed.
Enter Cub top prospect Matt Shaw. Currently ranked within almost every major publication's top 30 or so prospects, the former Maryland infielder is behind new acquisition Isaac Paredes at third and the aforementioned Nico Hoerner at second. While Shaw's bat has been excellent, his most likely home at the next level is at second base. Shaw showed a far more patient and selective approach 2024, posting better than a 140 wRC+ at Double-A and Triple-A. He's cruising through the Premier 12, setting records for RBI in a game while doing so. If Matt Shaw isn't ready now, he's almost assuredly going to be ready very soon.
Therein lies a creative solution: what if the Cubs, who have a built-in replacement for Hoerner, could dangle their starting second baseman for immediate upgrades elsewhere? It would most likely come in the form of a starting pitcher, whom the Cubs need. The problem here is twofold: how good would Matt Shaw need to be to make this kind of trade worth it, and who would be in the market to swap a second baseman for starting pitching help?
The first question isn't too hard to answer. While we shouldn't expect Shaw to be a four-win player immediately, it's probably not too difficult to imagine a world where Shaw is a pretty decent starting-level player pretty soon; let's say, for example, you project Matt Shaw to be about 5% better than league average offensively upon his call-up. He's an athletic and seemingly positive base runner who's likely bat-over-glove, though not a DH-level defender. Jonathan India, in 2024, posted a 108 wRC+, was a neutral runner, and was a -10 DRS/+1 OAA player, netting him 2.8 fWAR. Even if Shaw is a little worse defensively and a little better on the bases, getting to 3 wins if your analytic department likes him seems doable. That's about a net loss of a win, but you can make that up on the back end.
Things get very narrow on the return as you'd need a team with poor production at second base (which isn't that hard), but it is also attempting to win now and has starting pitching depth to burn. Some teams fall into one category or the other, but Seattle might be the only one that falls into both. So, could you do a trade around Nico Hoerner for, say, Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo? How much more to get to George Kirby? Mathew Trueblood, here at NSBB, explored the Seattle Mariner's pieces here at NSBB previously, and each offers something different.
But what if Seattle isn't an option? If the Cubs can get very creative, perhaps the Cubs could channel a three-team trade with a team with prospects/young players of their own who need a second baseman. The Boston Red Sox, helmed by former Cub Assistant GM Craig Breslow, could offer a potential solution. Not only would there be a built-in connection between the teams, the Red Sox need a second baseman, and there is belief in the industry that they would be open to move Wilyer Abreu to open up right field for top-prospect Roman Anthony. If you could find a team that, instead, was deep in pitching and needed an outfielder, perhaps a very complicated three-team swap could be facilitated.
In the end, finding a great trade fit for Nico Hoerner will likely prove difficult, but I don't think it's impossible. There are a lot of factors here; how good do the Cubs think Matt Shaw is right now? Can the Cubs find a partner for Hoerner that makes sense? But I think there's a narrow strip where the math works. Ultimately, it's hard to predict a trade will occur; a player will always be more likely to stay with their current team than move. But there's been enough smoke behind a potential Hoerner trade that I don't think it can be entirely ruled out if the Cubs are truly looking for a creative solution, either.
What do you think about a potential trade involving Nico Hoerner? Can the Cubs find a partner where it would make sense? Let us know in the comment section below!
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