you cant assume the same things would've happened... right, but when the leadoff runner gets on base, the average number of runs scored in an inning goes from .461 to .813 (76% higher). Plus coming up are the best hitters in the lineup. When there are one or two outs, maybe it's more imperative to get a runner on second so he can score on a single. But Pie getting out there made it significantly less likely that the Cubs would put runs on the board that inning. The potential reward doesn't outweigh the risk. oh i completely understand, and i'm not advocating stealing in front of the big boppers, i'm just saying it's hard to say the same sequence of events would've occurred.