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Everything posted by Fred Hornkohl
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BOTTOM OF THE SECOND INNING Garciaparra singled to right field Burnitz hit by pitch, Garciaparra to second Murton struck out swinging Patterson doubled down the right field line, Garciaparra scored, Burnitz to third Blanco singled to center field, Burnitz and Patterson scored Zambrano singled to right field, Blanco to third Perez flied out to the track in right field, Blanco scored Walker grounded into a FC, 4-6, Zambrano out at second 4 runs, 4 hits, 0 errors, 1 men left on base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E St. Louis 0 1 1 1 0 CUBS 0 4 4 4 0 Home runs: St. Louis: Rodriguez (5)
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TOP OF THE SECOND INNING Rodriguez homered to left field Nunez struck out swinging Molina grounded out to second, 4-3 Luna grounded out to the catcher, 2-3 1 runs, 1 hits, 0 errors, 0 men left on base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E St. Louis 0 1 1 1 0 CUBS 0 0 0 0 Home runs: St. Louis: Rodriguez (5) pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR HB PIT Zambrano 2.0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 21
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TOP OF THE FIRST INNING Eckstein hit by pitch Taguchi flied out to left field Pujols lined out to second base Mabry grounded out to first, unassisted 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 1 men left on base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E St. Louis 0 0 0 0 CUBS . 0 0 0 pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR HB PIT Zambrano 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 11
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Rusch
Fred Hornkohl replied to Backtobanks's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Never let the facts get in the way of a good argument, eh?? pitcher R/G Mitre 5.43 Zambrano 4.80 Wood 4.70 Maddux 4.66 Prior 4.60 Williams 4.07 Leicester 4.00 Koronka 3.67 Rusch 3.59 Dempster 3.00 Hill 3.00 Never let a misuse of statistics get in the way either... Z's made 30 starts. Here are the number of runs that the Cubs have scored in the games that he's started... 16, 4, 5, 3, 9, 1, 2, 3, 3, 2, 2, 4, 7, 6, 4, 2, 4, 9, 8, 1, 4, 2, 1, 4, 4, 2, 14, 9, 5, 4 Let's line those up in order... 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9, 9, 14, 16 Interesting that the Cubs have never been shut out when Zambrano's started. But anyway, talk about 30 runs in 2 games skewing the numbers (and, remember, Z didn't get a win in the 16 run game against Arizona because he was ejected after 4.2 innings!). In 20 of Zambrano's starts the offence has scored 4 runs or fewer. That means to to get a win in any of those starts, Z would have had to combine with a pretty lousy bullpen and allow 0-3 runs, earned or otherwise (and remember we've played some pretty lousy defence too this year), over the entire game to get a win, and that's assuming that the Cubs score all their runs while Zambrano's the pitcher of record. Not the easiest of assignments, but Z has generally been up to the task, making 22 quality starts out of 30. And, since June 23rd, 13 quality starts out of 15, with one of the non-quality starts seeing him start the 8th having allowed just 2 runs (the other one was the ESPN Sunday Night game against the Mets when he left after 3 IP). More than the wins, that Z has only "lost" 5 games is a credit to him. In the games that he took the loss, the Cubs scored 1, 3, 2, 4 and 1. I don't see how you can jump on Aramis Ramirez for what he said just because you've got a misleading statistic to hand. Nothing in Maddux's 32 starts suggests that the run support numbers are skewed, eh? 4,6,4,3,3,5,7,4,1,1,5,11,14,5,5,6,6,1,9,0,6,2,6,0,11,4,7,1,7,2,2,1 Or in ordinal order..... 0,0,1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,3,3,4,4,4,4,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,6,6,7,7,7,9,11,11,14 Note that there are 16 out of 32 starts where the CUBS scored 4 or fewer runs compared to 20 for Zambrano. Maddux's median is 5 compared to Zambrano's 4 pitcher R/G St Dev Mitre 5.43 4.59 Zambrano 4.80 3.58 Wood 4.70 2.93 Maddux 4.66 3.31 Prior 4.60 2.58 Williams 4.07 2.76 Leicester 4.00 ---- Koronka 3.67 3.77 Rusch 3.59 1.94 Dempster 3.00 2.71 Hill 3.00 1.23 overall 4.40 3.12 There is absolutely nothing here to suggest that Zambrano, given Maddux's run support, would have 9 more wins at this point in the season. That was the original assertion, and I jumped on it because it was wrong. Misuse of a statistic ?? What arrogance !! -
Worthless stats of the day..... CUBS are 15-8 on Sundays CUBS are 9-6 vs. St. Louis CUBS are 37-41 in the day time. CUBS are 35-40 at home. CUBS are 25-20 in games that end a series CUBS are 6-4 in games ending a homestand CUBS are 39-34 when they've won the previous game.... 32-42 after a loss CUBS are 18-32 when the temperature is in the 70's CUBS are 18-12 when Zambrano starts Zambrano is 21 of 30 in quality starts Zambrano's ERA pitching to Barrett is 3.12.... pitching to Blanco 3.41 CUBS score 4.40 R/G overall.... 4.80 R/G when Zambrano pitches CUBS hit 1.22 HR/G overall.... 0.97 HR/G when Zambrano pitches CUBS' offensive support of Zambrano..... 04/04 - 09/17 AB R H 2b 3b HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS CUBS w/Zambrano 1066 144 304 69 9 29 478 139 77 172 0.285 0.337 0.448 0.786 CUBS overall 5151 656 1401 300 23 182 2293 630 393 832 0.272 0.327 0.445 0.773 Zambrano's last five starts..... Zambrano IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA 09/13 vs. Cincy 6.0 3 3 3 3 9 2 116 4.50 13.50 3.00 1.00 4.50 09/08 vs. S.F. 7.0 6 3 3 3 6 1 125 3.86 7.71 1.29 1.29 3.86 09/03 vs. Pitts 7.7 5 5 5 4 9 0 117 4.70 10.57 0.00 1.17 5.87 08/28 vs. Flor 8.0 6 3 3 2 6 1 108 2.25 6.75 1.13 1.00 3.38 08/22 vs. Atla 8.0 3 2 2 0 10 1 118 0.00 11.25 1.13 0.38 2.25 5 game totals 36.7 23 16 16 12 40 5 584 2.95 9.82 1.23 0.95 3.93 Zambrano's other previous starts vs. St. Louis..... Zambrano IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA 04/20 vs. St. L 8.7 5 1 1 1 3 1 118 1.04 3.12 1.04 0.69 1.04 07/22 vs. St. L 9.0 3 1 1 0 12 1 118 0.00 12.00 1.00 0.33 1.00 08/12 vs. St. L 6.0 6 0 0 1 5 0 96 1.50 7.50 0.00 1.17 0.00 Zambrano's splits..... Zambrano IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA Home 98.3 67 28 27 37 88 8 1555 3.39 8.05 0.73 1.06 2.47 Road 102.7 80 49 45 44 101 9 1674 3.86 8.85 0.79 1.21 3.94 Day 91.0 66 25 24 40 82 5 1435 3.96 8.11 0.49 1.16 2.37 Nite 110.0 81 52 48 41 107 12 1794 3.35 8.75 0.98 1.11 3.93 season totals 201.0 147 77 72 81 189 17 3229 3.63 8.46 0.76 1.13 3.22 CUBS' season series vs. St. Louis..... Gm# Date Opponent Score Starter 15 Wed 04/20 @ St. Louis N 3- 1 Zambrano 16 Thu 04/21 @ St. Louis 0- 4 Dempster 96 Fri 07/22 @ St. Louis N 1- 2 Zambrano 97 Sat 07/23 @ St. Louis 6- 5 Williams 98 Sun 07/24 @ St. Louis N 8- 4 Prior 115 Thu 08/11 St. Louis 11- 4 Maddux 116 Fri 08/12 St. Louis 4- 1 Zambrano 117 Sat 08/13 St. Louis 2- 5 Williams 118 Sun 08/14 St. Louis N 5- 4 Prior 137 Mon 09/05 @ St. Louis 4- 6 Prior 138 Tue 09/06 @ St. Louis N 5- 2 Rusch 139 Wed 09/07 @ St. Louis N 2- 1 Maddux 147 Thu 09/15 St. Louis N 1- 6 Prior 148 Fri 09/16 St. Louis 5- 3 Rusch 149 Sat 09/17 St. Louis 1- 5 Maddux 150 Sun 09/18 St. Louis - Zambrano CUBS' hitters vs. St. Louis..... CUBS AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Lee 54 14 21 5 0 6 44 12 12 6 0.389 0.500 0.815 1.315 Ramirez 35 7 13 2 0 3 24 9 4 2 0.371 0.450 0.686 1.136 Lawton 14 2 5 0 0 1 8 1 0 0 0.357 0.357 0.571 0.929 Barrett 32 4 10 3 0 1 16 2 4 4 0.313 0.389 0.500 0.889 Burnitz 54 5 17 1 0 2 24 8 5 8 0.315 0.373 0.444 0.817 Perez 51 5 17 3 0 1 23 8 2 2 0.333 0.358 0.451 0.809 Blanco 26 2 8 0 0 1 11 2 2 4 0.308 0.357 0.423 0.780 Patterson 36 6 9 2 0 2 17 4 2 4 0.250 0.289 0.472 0.762 Hollandsworth 23 1 6 3 0 0 9 0 2 2 0.261 0.320 0.391 0.711 Hairston 39 3 11 2 1 0 15 1 1 7 0.282 0.300 0.385 0.685 Garciaparra 37 1 10 2 0 0 12 1 2 2 0.270 0.325 0.324 0.649 Walker 42 3 11 2 0 0 13 0 2 9 0.262 0.295 0.310 0.605 Macias 15 1 4 1 0 0 5 4 0 1 0.267 0.267 0.333 0.600 Murton 17 2 4 0 0 0 4 1 1 4 0.235 0.278 0.235 0.513 Cedeno 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.000 0.143 0.000 0.143 Grieve 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Gerut 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Fontenot 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 McClain 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Theriot 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 vs. St. L. 523 58 151 27 2 17 233 56 40 69 0.289 0.343 0.446 0.788 overall 5151 656 1400 293 23 178 2273 631 391 822 0.272 0.327 0.441 0.768 CUBS' pitchers vs. St. Louis..... CUBS IP H R ER BB K HR PC BB/9 K/9 HR/9 WHIP ERA Hawkins 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Koronka 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Wood 3.0 1 0 0 2 6 0 51 6.00 18.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 Wellemeyer 2.0 3 1 0 1 2 0 38 4.50 9.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 Zambrano 23.7 14 2 2 2 20 2 332 0.76 7.61 0.76 0.68 0.76 Dempster 13.0 13 4 3 5 8 0 208 3.46 5.54 0.00 1.38 2.08 Wuertz 7.0 3 2 2 3 8 1 119 3.86 10.29 1.29 0.86 2.57 Mitre 3.3 3 1 1 2 2 0 61 5.40 5.40 0.00 1.50 2.70 Rusch 16.3 13 5 5 3 8 1 241 1.65 4.41 0.55 0.98 2.76 Ohman 2.7 2 1 1 1 1 1 36 3.38 3.38 3.38 1.13 3.38 Maddux 21.0 29 9 9 3 12 1 308 1.29 5.14 0.43 1.52 3.86 Prior 23.0 23 11 11 10 19 4 428 3.91 7.43 1.57 1.43 4.30 Williams 12.0 11 7 6 7 10 1 218 5.25 7.50 0.75 1.50 4.50 Novoa 4.7 3 3 3 2 1 1 62 3.86 1.93 1.93 1.07 5.79 Hill 2.0 0 2 2 3 0 0 38 13.50 0.00 0.00 1.50 9.00 Fox 0.7 2 2 2 0 1 1 15 0.00 13.50 13.50 3.00 27.00 Williamson 0.3 3 2 2 1 1 0 22 27.00 27.00 0.00 12.00 54.00 Remlinger 0.0 1 1 1 0 0 1 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 vs. St. L. 135.3 124 53 50 45 99 14 2188 2.99 6.58 0.93 1.25 3.33 overall 1325.7 1247 662 626 533 1158 171 21877 3.62 7.86 1.16 1.34 4.25 Go CUBS !!
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Rusch
Fred Hornkohl replied to Backtobanks's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Never let the facts get in the way of a good argument, eh?? pitcher R/G Mitre 5.43 Zambrano 4.80 Wood 4.70 Maddux 4.66 Prior 4.60 Williams 4.07 Leicester 4.00 Koronka 3.67 Rusch 3.59 Dempster 3.00 Hill 3.00 -
Hendry will never be Fred, eh ??
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BOTTOM OF THE NINTH INNING Isringhausen in to pitch for St. Louis Grieve, pinch hitting for Mitre, struck out swinging Blanco grounded out to third, 5-3 Walker grounded out to first, unassisted 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 0 men left on base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E St. Louis 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 11 0 CUBS 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 8 0 W: Mulder (16-7) S: none L: Maddux (12-13) T: 2:57 A: 39,269 Home runs: CUBS: Burnitz (23) pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR HB PIT Maddux 6.3 10 5 5 1 3 0 0 102 Mitre 2.7 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 46
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TOP OF THE NINTH INNING Mabry, pinch hitting for Reyes, flied out to left field Eckstein grounded out to second, 4-3 Edmonds hit by pitch Edmonds takes second on a wild pitch Pujols walked Walker grounded out to short, 6-3 0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors, 2 men left on base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 R H E St. Louis 1 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 11 0 CUBS 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 8 0 Home runs: CUBS: Burnitz (23) pitcher IP H R ER BB K HR HB PIT Maddux 6.3 10 5 5 1 3 0 0 102 Mitre 2.7 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 46

