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risico

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Everything posted by risico

  1. risico
    If some think that Hendry is a "good trader" based on only the deals he's made, then I think that's an incomplete analysis of Hendry as a trader. Sure, Hendry rarely gives away good talent in a deal. But one of his greatest vices is that he's so reluctant to trade away players that he keeps them long enough for them to lose value. I think it's impossible to judge Hendry as a trader when we don't know what kind of deals he nixed. There were plenty of Cub players that could have been traded at the height of their value but were kept and dealt away for nothing. Case in point: Rich Hill
  2. risico
    Possibly because he swings and misses almost twice as often as the average MLB hitter. It could also be that he strikes out in about 30% of his at-bats. It could also be that his HR/FB rate is the highest in the majors, higher than those of Jim Thome, Joey Votto, and David Ortiz. First, those swing and miss rates don't bode well for him in the future as a guy who can make consistent contact. Second, I'm inclined to think that his HR/FB rate is unsustainable and that it will fall.
  3. risico
    Francoeur never struck out as much as Colvin is striking out though. Francoeur was a guy who would swing at everything and always struck out quite a bit, but Colvin's K rate is much higher by comparison.
  4. risico
    Rusin's K and BB numbers in Daytona are very impressive. Hopefully he's promoted soon as he deserves it.
  5. risico
    The ASG has never been meaningless and never will be as long as sports writers use ASG appearances as a criterion for HOF selection. It's a joke, I know, but selection to the ASG matters and having it in the hands of the fans is unacceptable. Then again the managers don't do any better in picking the teams so I'm not sure who deserves that responsibility.
  6. risico
    I think the idea of trading Silva should be simple: if you can get something of value for him without eating much of his remaining contract, you should deal him. If teams ask you to pay for some of that remaining salary, the Cubs are probably better off just keeping him around and allowing him to eat innings for them. But as I've said, I doubt Hendry trades this guy away because he's one of Hendry's few good acquisitions.
  7. risico
    I know UZR has not stabilized at this point, but if you believe UZR at all, then Tyler Colvin is a top 5 corner OF in the game this season. His UZR/150 is right in line with Justin Upton and Ben Zobrist. His defensive value is mostly due to range but I would say he's better than "a bit above average" defensively. I agree that he doesn't belong in CF. I think it's way too early to talk about a platoon split though, especially since he's hit more line drives against LHP than he has against RHP. His approach at the plate is his biggest problem - there's no way he'll be a valuable hitter if he's swinging and missing as often as he does.
  8. risico
    From what I have heard, he is an amazing defensive player to go along with the speed and patience that you mention. Now he is 6'2" according to Baseball Reference and he's still 19 years-old. I don't think it's impossible that he develops a bit more power as he ages. He shows signs of knowing what he's doing at the plate, which is very important in a prospect - he's shown that he can take a good approach. Plus, I think that .322 BABIP is low given his skillset and the level he's playing at.
  9. risico
    First, the manager can have a sizeable effect on the season. Case in point starting Koyie Hill over Geovanny Soto. If you give a manager talented players but he insists on platooning them with untalented players, then the manager needs to go. But Hendry doesn't deserve another chance, no way. So the Cubs have 2 guys running the show that are pretty much clueless. It explains a lot of what's happened the past 2 seasons.
  10. risico
    This is a joke. Charlie Manuel picked a terrible team. Some of the head-scratching selections in the AL were due to the MLB's rule that each team needs to be represented. That's why you see Carmona in there ahead of Felix Hernandez. Girardi had his hands tied for most of the selections, though he should have taken Youk as his 3B over ARod. But Manuel just picked horrible players. Infante may be the worst All-Star ever. Zimmerman deserves that spot and Marmol deserves Capps' spot. Neither the HOF nor the MLB can continue to assign any significance to this game when this stuff is going on.
  11. risico
    I don't think that's the case at all and I think Cashner may be more suited to starting than to closing. Cashner has great stuff but in the majors he's struggled to miss bats. He's inducing a lot of ground balls and walking very few hitters, both good signs, but he's not posting huge K numbers that you would expect from a guy with his stuff. I think it's a matter of learning how to use his stuff to get hitters to swing at bad pitches. Right now hitters aren't swinging at pitches Cashner throws outside of the strike zone (29.1% O-swing rate is about the league average). I think Cashner would benefit a bit from going back to the minors and pitching regularly in a starter's role. He's still young and has a few things to figure out.
  12. risico
    One thing people often ignore is that Colvin is a good (very good) corner outfielder. He does not belong in CF, but his value defensively as a corner OF is quite good. He will definitely need to improve his approach at the plate if he wants to be a successful major league hitter. He's currently posting a ridiculous 15.3% swinging-strike rate and his K rate approaching 30%. Right now his whiff numbers are worse than anything Jeff Francoeur has ever posted. That's not a good sign.
  13. risico
    I don't think Marmol is a player you keep when he has a season like this. He's setting records this season and, while he has good stuff, I don't know if that K rate is going to be sustainable in the future. Meanwhile, his BB rate is holding steady from previous seasons. Free passes have always been his biggest problem. Plus, closers are always overvalued at the trade deadline. Marmol might be the most valuable guy the Cubs can trade and he's probably the only one that will command a decent return. Guys like Byrd and Silva should be dealt but I doubt Hendry does it. He's needs to keep some of his successful acquisitions around.
  14. risico
    Two guys the Cubs should entertain trading are Carlos Marmol and Geovany Soto. Marmol is having a record-shattering season no doubt, but closers are generally overvalued in trade deadline deals and Marmol is still young and cheap enough to command a good return. Soto is also having a nice season and might be especially valuable to a team like the Red Sox who need a good catcher. He will probably return a few good prospects. He is a valuable player and still young, but I worry that the he won't age well. Also, I keep hearing that the Cubs can just offer Lilly/Lee arbitration and get comp. picks for them, but I'm not sure they refuse arbitration if the Cubs offer it. I also don't see Byrd/Silva going anywhere. Those are Hendry's prized acquisitions.
  15. risico
    Guys, let's be real about Vitters: His raw numbers are brought down by really bad luck on balls in play. A BABIP of .261 is unsustainably low. Adjust for that and all the numbers don't look terrible. But he's not performing great either. He's currently posting an ISO of about .130 which is terrible for such a highly touted power hitter. His ISO in Daytona wasn't great either (though his power numbers in Peoria last season were excellent). Honestly, the Cubs were too aggressive in promoting him and he should be in Daytona right now. He is very young and has adjusted well at every level so far. You have to hope that he makes the adjustment to AA pitching and starts to hit (I think it will come next year or possibly 2 years from now). The jump from A+ to AA ball is pretty difficult.
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