Aaron Kennelly

"Y'all thought this show was over, motherfuckers!?"

Alright, we were just messing around. But now it's on!

I was pretty much distraught during that game and resigned to a fate of losing. But I don't want to go out like that. We laid a turd going out last year. Let's not do it again. I don't want that taste in my mouth, coming from my favorite team ever -- a team that is better than any team I've ever followed, the best team in baseball. So we have to win three in a row. Big deal. I still think we've got favorable matchups. For one, we don't have to see Lackey's stupid face again. Lester's got this tomorrow. Just win that one first. Focus on one at a time. It's not some monumental task. They are throwing two shitty pitchers, both on short rest. And then they are throwing a beast on short rest. But he'll be on short rest for the second consecutive outing. And he already looked diminished last night. Sure, he might be going from being invincible to nearly invincible. But it gives me some hope. We have our three studs lined up. And they could do something magical.

Speaking of the odds, I saw on twitter yesterday someone said something like, "Even if the Cubs lose this game, we've still got something like an 18% chance of winning the World Series. And that's still better than pretty much every day that we've been alive."

horsefeathering stupid sport. I woke up in the middle of the night and I'm all pissed off and can't get back to sleep.

I would really reconsider the impact sports has on your well-being. That isn't healthy. This is my favorite post in the history of ever.

Shoot him into the sun.

Because we're down a run in a 2-1 world series? GTFO. If it keeps him away, I'm for it.

Get Monty in.

J-HEY!

Go cut your hair.

Try not to suck, Lackey.

Let's score a bunch of runs early, please.

I'm not going to freak out or anything, because why start now? We were in this position against the Dodgers and made out all right. And throwing nothing but starters on short rest is a really, really dumb idea. I think it backfires magnificently. The circumstances are a lot different than the Dodgers series. But, it's basically the same thing: Win tomorrow and we're set up really well to take the series. I really thought we were going to run over them last night, though. Ah well, it's not going to be easy.

What the hell happened?

Heyward Bingo. He sucks at everything.

Speaking of standard deviation on balls in play. Would anyone care to take a guess at which Cub has the highest standard deviation of launch angles on his balls in play?

Yes, it's wrong. They're already all trying to dong as it is. Basically the whole lineup is looking to elevate the ball in every single at bat. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=1%7C2%7C3%7C&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=&launch_angle_lt=&distance_gt=&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=&batted_ball_angle_lt=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=launch_angle&player_event_sort=start_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=&ss_gt=&ss_lt=&is_barrel=#results They don't have to change their approach to do so. That already is their approach. The only guys who aren't trying to dong every time already are Dex, Zobrist, and Willy. I don't see those guys trying to hit the ball 500 feet. Maybe Willson. I should expand on this. I've got an article on Willson that I started working on that's sitting in the hopper. (I'll try to get it done tomorrow, fwiw.) And it's about his approach. But, I've also looked into all the other Cubs, too. Basically, the article is going to show why Willson is going to be a BABIP freak. A lot of it has to do with his approach. He's a line drive hitter, with a good approach. Zobrist and Fowler fall into that category, too. But they're not quite as impressive at it as Willson. Anyway, all the other Cubs in the lineup tonight are swinging for the fences. They have high launch angles on their balls in the air. They are trying to hit home runs. Where they are good, though, is that the standard deviations on the balls they hit are relatively low, especially for guys that are hitting balls at those launch angles. So a guy like Randal Grichuk has a similar average launch angle, but his standard deviation is much higher. He's hitting a lot of pop-ups and making a lot of other weak contact. He's selling out for power. And he's not as consistent with how he hits the ball. We have a bunch of home run hitters swinging for the fences, but they don't get fooled as much. They are consistent with their approach. Their balls in play are closer, on average, to where they want them to be. What that means for tonight, I think, would be that they don't need to change their approaches. They already are trying to elevate the ball. And they do so without selling out. So if that is already their mindset, how would this change things? They would just be trying to do what they do every other game.

Yes, it's wrong. They're already all trying to dong as it is. Basically the whole lineup is looking to elevate the ball in every single at bat. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfZ=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfAB=&stadium=&hfBBT=1%7C2%7C3%7C&hfBBL=&hfC=&season=2016&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&start_speed_gt=&start_speed_lt=&perceived_speed_gt=&perceived_speed_lt=&spin_rate_gt=&spin_rate_lt=&exit_velocity_gt=&exit_velocity_lt=&launch_angle_gt=&launch_angle_lt=&distance_gt=&distance_lt=&batted_ball_angle_gt=&batted_ball_angle_lt=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&team=&position=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=launch_angle&player_event_sort=start_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0&xba_gt=&xba_lt=&px1=&px2=&pz1=&pz2=&ss_gt=&ss_lt=&is_barrel=#results They don't have to change their approach to do so. That already is their approach. The only guys who aren't trying to dong every time already are Dex, Zobrist, and Willy. I don't see those guys trying to hit the ball 500 feet. Maybe Willson.

The 2016 Fielding Bible Award winners are: First Base – Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs Second Base – Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox Third Base – Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies Shortstop – Andrelton Simmons, Atlanta Braves Left Field – Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates Center Field - Kevin Pillar, Toronto Blue Jays Right Field – Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox Catcher – Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants Pitcher – Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros Multi-Position – Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs

108,000?

David Wright, with his degenerative back, is going to finally be healthy, though. I can feel it.

First the Baez Love haters and now it's people sick of Schwarber Love. What do you want them to do!? Not talk about the badass dudes that are dominating the playoffs? "Oh my god, Joe Buck is talking about this guy that is doing something that's literally never been done before! Boo hoo!"

http://www.csnchicago.com/chicago-cubs/willson-contreras-apologizes-cubs-fans-twitter-and-again-makes-his-presence-felt-world I was listening to the radio after one of our celebrations. (They all blend together at this point.) And Montero was being interviewed and said the same thing about there not being a divide between the American and Latin players.

does any of this matter in 40 mph wins? i mean, its not 10, or 20. its 40. I hope so, but but holy horsefeathers Ground balls aren't affected by the wind. You have one of the better ground ball pitchers in the league going who also happens to be the best at inducing weak contact. He might give up a gopher ball or even 2 but I would guess that for the most part Hendricks is the ideal pitcher to have pitching in these conditions. Is my theory on Hendricks correct? I would say, unequivocally, so. We can break this down even more as to why it favors Hendricks. For one, Hendricks is a really good pitcher and gets a lot of ground balls, like you say. But we've also seen a bunch of articles -- and witnessed it ourselves -- talking about how diverse his arsenal is. He keeps guys off-balance. He's got a ton of useful pitches that he can use at any moment. I've shown he's good at getting weak contact in the air and on the ground. But, there was one article that showed that he becomes much better when men are on, and that it is because he changes how he pitches. He looks for weak contact when nobody's on and then he brings out the changeup to get whiffs when there is trouble. And we've seen times where he gets a lot of weak fly outs and pop-ups in a game, and then the next outing he gets a ton of ground balls. I think a lot of that has to do with game plans, based off of opponents and conditions. Basically, Hendricks can do whatever he wants to get guys out. And he decides what to do based on circumstances. In this circumstance, he'll know fly balls are bad. So he'll probably look to get more whiffs and keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. That means he'll attack low, with a heavy diet of sinkers. And he'll bring out the change more often when he gets to two strikes, even when guys aren't on. Tomlin, on the other hand, doesn't have much of repertoire. He pretty much survives solely because he doesn't walk guys. After that, he just prays that he gets more 325-foot fly outs than 400-foot homers. He has no hope in this endeavor. He can't miss bats like Hendricks. He can't get ground balls like Hendricks. All he can do is pray. And that's not going to work.