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Colin Wyers

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Everything posted by Colin Wyers

  1. Colin Wyers
    From the Sun-Times Twitter.com account: CF Reed J SS Riot 1B Lee 3B Rami RF Fuku LF DeRo C Soto 2B Ced P Hill
  2. Colin Wyers
    It is not, in fact, just as likely for a 28-year-old player to have a breakout season as it is for a 25-year-old. Now you're absolutely right about the sample sizes involved here being pretty meaningless, but the fact of the matter is that Cedeno has a higher ceiling; it's simply not a NEW fact.
  3. Colin Wyers
    Why can't it be both? WARP is close to useless - it assumes the existance of magical players that are somehow replacement level on both offense and defense; those players do not exist. Replacement-level hitters tend to be average fielders for their position. Then factor in the fact that FRAR is a mediocre defensive metric at best, and stir. That said, Neifi was an outstanding defensive player, and while that fails to make him a good ballplayer, you can make the arguement that he (in his prime) was a better than Ryan Theriot is right now, in his prime. Which, I just want to add - Ryan Theriot is older than Cesar Izturis. True story! I will continue repeating this until people stop refering to him as young or alluding to his prospect status at any point later than about 2004.
  4. Colin Wyers
    "How can you look at those numbers and say he's not more or likely to suck in clutch stats than a guy like Franceour?" Um... because I know about probability distribution? If you dig around long enough, you will find players with split stats that would seem to indicate that there's some sort of effect going on - clutch, unclutch, or any set of things you can look at with splits. But given the size of the population you're looking at, you would expect there to be some unlikely/unexplainable outcomes in the data set. One player's splits don't prove anything, not even about that player. It's not enough to know whether or not your sample is significant, but whether or not your measurement is significant. When you look at major league players as a population, "clutch" tendencies don't seem to persist from season to season, the way that, say, platoon tendencies do.
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