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This from Carrie Muskat's blog: I am curious to see how Schlitter competes in camp. He is supposed to have a plus FB and slider. His stats looked good in high A last year. He is big and not too old for his league. He most likely will compete with Alex Maestri and Blake Parker for closer at AA. I hope the camp invite is an indication that he has worked hard this winter to take the next step.

In the spirit and celebration of Charles Darwin's 200th birthday, I predict the fittest 1B will survive. The player who has the most potential married with production will separate from the pack and progress to the prospect level of trade bait and/or 4A status. If one of these players had the talent to bump Derrick Lee at contract renewal time, I think we would have heard Oneri Fleita pontificate the skill set of said prospect. Micah Hoffpauir is still king of the mid-round draft prospects at 1B. On a side note, I watched Rebel Ridling flail at fastballs and breaking balls in low A last summer. He didn't look like future trade bait. My hopes are with Ryan Keedy.

In the article there is a question of corruption in MLB, Everything that I have read about steroids in baseball suggests performance enhancing drugs (PED) are easier and cheaper to buy in Mexico and Latin America, even Flintstone vitamins. It seems that most of the minor leaguers caught are Hispanic. I think it is a culture of lack of education (what is legal/illegal), availability of PED and desire to escape poverty that drives Hispanic players to try PED more than any perceived notion of corruption by MLB to "get" Hispanic players. Claerly it is greed that drives PED on the major league level. I can hear the drug dealer's marketing pitch, "Make more money with . . .(fill in the blank)" The vainity of athletes often override any ethical code of compettion. The fallout of A-Rod and company at this late stage is directly related to MLB officals not handling PED very well since Jose Canseco and his identical twin brother Ozzie stood side by side in the late 1980s. The Cansecos may have been the most successful "before and after" picture campaign to promote a product. Unfortunetly, many years ago, I started to question all athletic performances that could be tainted by PED, i.e., any Olypmic sport, cycling, baseball, etc. It has dulled my desire to follow sports and sharpened my cynicism for any professional organized athletic competition.

Let's review the 2002 Cubs draft: 1. Bobby Brownlie, rhp - pre-exsisting arm injury, released AA ball 1. Luke Hagerty, lhp, arm injury, released low A ball 1. Chadd Blasko, rhp, arm injury, released AA ball 1. Matt Clanton, rhp, arm injury, released short season ball 2. Brian Dopirak, 1b, released AA ball 2. Justin Jones, lhp, arm injury, traded 3. Billy Petrick, rhp, arm injury, released after short stint in MLB 4. Rich Hill, lhp, less than 2 years as MLB starting pitcher, traded after control problems 13. Micah Hoffpauir, 1b, MLB 38. Randy Wells, c, short stint at MLB as rhp, arm injury Anyone remember the great expectations for this draft? 4 number one picks, 2 second rounders and nothing in return, albiet, Justin Jones as trade bait. The first 6 pitchers had arm injuries. Rich Hill looks to be the success of this draft and he was an afterthought to most draft watchers because of his age and control issues at Michigan. And yet, this is one of the most successful Cubs drafts in terms of quantity of players to reach MLB. Only 2000 and 2001 have a better haul of talent in the last dozen years.

Tony Ritchie is listed on the Iowa roster at the Cubs website. I cannot see Luis Bautista as the #2 catcher at Daytona. I think his primary position is 1B and will "fill-in" as needed at catcher. McGill looks to have a future as a swing catcher between Peoria and Daytona. I will guess that at least one of the Hill/Robinson/Reed/Mercedes/Ritchie group will be released by the end of spring training.

I don't remember where I read it (since the end of the season), but Searle has a building reputation of good stuff/fragile head. Maybe a full season at Peoria will quell those concerns.

I saw Maestri pitch a couple of years ago, his coming out year as a late inning reliever. I was impressed. His delivery was efficient and he showed good control in the strike zone. His FB was 91-93 mph, but what impressed me the most was his slider. It had a filthy late break that fooled all of the hitters. He consistently threw the pitch just off the outside corner and it never bounced in the dirt when I saw him. He looked like a future setup man in Chicago. If his arm is sound and the Cubs return him to a late inning reliever, I can see Maestri projecting to MLB in two years.

T-Tiger, I saw Guyer in early August.

Last season, I got the chance to see Brandon Guyer play. He looks and carries himself like a MLB and he was the most athletic player on the team that day. He played a shallow CF and made every play effortlessly. His arm was strong, he was fast at going back on balls and his stride was confident. He showed the ability to run the bases and posted a SB. At the plate however, he had problems. His swing looks good, but he swung through FBs and breaking pitches. When he did make contact, the ball jumped off his bat. Overall, he has the look of a MLB, but his inability to make consistent contact at the plate has me concerned that he will not develop past AA or High A.

An amendment to my lilst: Supersleeper - Ryan Harvey as a pitcher

2009 Breakout Prospects: Defined as a player who will make significant progress to solidify/identify ML prospect status. Logan Watkins Casey Coleman Ryan Acosta Jeffry Antigua Marwin Gonzalez Dan McDaniel Drew Rundle Ultra sleeper (shouldn’t be a prospect, but will end up one) - Michael Brenly Players who will disappoint: Jovan Rosa Jericho Jones Ryan Searle Nelson Perez Luis Bautista Marcos Mateo Hak-Ju Lee (first year in USA jitters) Let the fires be stoked.

Good comments from everybody. The response to my thread has centered on aggressiveness and walks. My de-emphasis on Vitters' OPS in his first full season is rooted in articles I have read about scouts and player development personel wanting young prospects to be aggressive in their approach early to learn what they can and cannot hit, i.e., power stroke, inside out swing, holes and length of swing. This is usually a 2 year process. Teams want to know what kind of bat a player has and how he handles adversity. Yes, plate discipline is most important, but often players are most receptive to instruction after failure. I agree that Vitters cannot reach his projection unless he develops plate discipline. I think once he knows what he can do over a full season, his OPS will go up as he refines his approach at different levels. Also, there is an underlying current to the responses in this thread that has not been put in writing. Ty Colvin's lack of development per plate disipline has everyone concerned the same will happen to Vitters. Vitters' talent is superior to Colvin and he is younger (fewer bad habits). I understand the concern, but want to see a full season of results. And one last thing. I will throw this out to rile the crowd, the patience of a great hitter is not necessarily measured in OPB. Waiting for the right pitch to drive has just as much disipline as working the count. Vlad Guerrero is a classic example and may work as Vitters' profile down the line.

Yeah, it sucks to think that. In his scouting report last year, his height was considered fringe for a RHP. "Downward plane" has been the buzz phrase the last few years. I think the emphasis of the 4-seam FB over a 2-seam sinker has created a generation of tall RHP. I can remember 20 years ago, most pitchers threw sinking FB and were scouted for it. The classic example is Orel Hershiser. His FB topped out at 90-91mph, yet threw a wicked sinker. He won a Cy Young and signed the biggest contract for a pitcher at that time. Maddux is another great example. In that era, 6'3" was considered tall. Now, that height is average. The emphasis on FB velocity as prerequisite to prospect status is a recent (20 years) thing. Maybe the radar gun has a lot to do with it. Anway, Jackson's scouting report suggests that he must maintain a downward plane on his FB to compensate for his height for future success. Now if he threw a sinker . . .

TruffleShuffle, I think that in Vitters first full season (which is my projection) he will be encouraged to be aggressive. Walks (patience) will be emphasized later in his development. His ability as a run producer will be more pronounced this year with his aggressive approach. Without typing out a long string of nomial variables considering BAvg. in scoring position, 2 outs, etc., I condensed this production into RBIs. It is easier to follow on a daily basis and quick to qauntitate. Vitters won't mature into his MLB projection for a few years. My 2009 projection is meant to help measure his first steps on that ladder. I think we shouldn't overemphasize all the statistical products in his first year. Let's see what he does and then come up with more advanced benchmarks in future years. The kid has our weight of expectations and that of past failed uber prospects.

2009 Projection: Ryan Flaherty MLB projection: Starting 2B Strengths: Switch hitter for average and power, athletic, mature, bloodlines Weaknesses: lack of range, errors, high K rate, older There are many statistics and clues to follow any minor league prospect throughout the season. Each player has a different set of expectations to meet the projection of their MLB prospect status. Here are a set of reasonable variables to follow Ryan Flaherty in 2009 on his projection as a starting 2B. Was Flaherty drafted with Chase Utley in mind? Granted, Utley is at the extreme end of projection. They have a similar college background of success and Flaherty is expected to be a run producing middle infielder that bats primarily from the left side. If he has a good spring training, he will start at Daytona. Peoria is okay if he is assigned to Daytona by mid-season. Flaherty should be a team leader and any report of this would reinforce his status. At some point, he will change positions. If so at Daytona, this may be a bad sign of his fielding ability (uncharacteristic of his glove and arm reports). The high end of his projection is .300 avg./20HR/80+RBI/900OPS. The Cubs recent college age middle infield prospects have not grown as expected. Flaherty is the best so far and if he does not pan out, the onus will be on the Cubs development program. Good variables to maintain status (Starting 2B): Leads team in AB .260+ avg. 12+ HR (FSL skew) 60+ RBI 25+ 2B .350+ OBP OPS .800+ Hitting streak of 12 games or more (2 weeks) Strikeout ratio of 1/4 Plays in league all-star game Fewer than 30 errors (will play SS)

2009 Projection: Jay Jackson MLB projection: #3 Starting Pitcher Strengths: Athletic, confident, slider, fastball Weaknesses: Short for a RHP, pitch location, lacks projection There are many statistics and clues to follow any minor league prospect throughout the season. Each player has a different set of expectations to meet the projection of their MLB prospect status. Here are a set of reasonable variables to follow Jay Jackson in 2009 on his projection as a mid-rotation starting pitcher. Pitchers are not easily projected out of spring training compared to position players. The best scenario is for Jackson to begin at Daytona where he ended in 2008. Starting in Peoria is a step back and may show a lack of preparedness. With a good season he should advance to AA before the end of 09. Jackson’s athletic ability must transfer to durability. An arm injury, even minor, may indicate an inability to repeat his delivery. Typically, future major league pitchers will dominate early in their careers. Jackson should compete for Cubs minor league pitcher of the year. Good variables to maintain status (Mid-rotation starting pitcher): Opening day starter and 1or 2 in rotation throughout year 20-25 starts and 125+ IP (should lead staff in IP) ERA under 3.50 Fewer hits than IP Walks under 4/9IP Ks 7.5/9IP or higher Low number of unearned runs Opponents BA at or under .250 6 or more consecutive starts of 0-2 runs given up over 5+ IP At least 15 starts pitching into 6th inning (show of game management) Maintain FB velocity in low 90s Refine (location) slider as out pitch and develop consistent third pitch

To spice up January and give everyone something to ponder, I have created a few 2009 projections of Cub prospects. Without seeing these players (usually), we rely on other variables to give us an indication of how the prospects are doing. The following is a template of what to expect in 2009 if the prospects maintain their status and in some cases, exceed projections. 2009 Projection: Josh Vitters MLB projection: All-Star 3B Strengths: Bat speed, plat coverage, strong arm, 20-10 vision Weaknesses: Foot speed, defensive foot work, accurate throwing There are many statistics and clues to follow any minor league prospect throughout the season. Each player has a different set of expectations to meet the projection of their MLB prospect status. Here are a set of reasonable variables to follow Josh Vitters in 2009 on his projection as an All-Star 3B. He must begin and play the whole year on a full season team, either Peoria or Daytona. He should stay healthy. Another trip to the DL may give cause for concern that he is injury prone. A promotion during the year is a plus. Ending the season at High A is a good sign he is holding his status. However, starting at Daytona and being demoted to Peoria does not change his status. A promotion to AA (on merit/no politics) in the last month of the season is an excellent indication he is on track to be special. Good variables to maintain status (at least one MLB All-Star appearance): 400 or more AB (measure of health and toughness) .280-.300 Avg. 15-20 HR 65-80 RBI 25 or more 2B .480 or above Slg % Minimum of 190 total bases Multiple hitting streaks over 10 games At least one hot week of outstanding output (named player of the week) Fewer than 30 errors Less than 100 Ks or 1/4 ratio Variable for special status (top 3 position standing (speculative) in MLB): Above .325 Avg., 20+HR, 90+RBI, 35+2B, .520+Slg %, 250+TB, multiple player of the week awards, a monster week(s) of output, consistent top 10 BA hot prospect sheet ranking. I left out OPS because Vitters is an aggressive hitter who may never have an abundance of walks. His plat coverage and hitting ability identify him as a run producer and thus outweigh the importance of a high OBP at this time. Total bases/RBIs over OBP may be a better indication of his value. Vitters status does not change if he misses a variable or two. However, if he misses more than three, his status will most likely change as well as his future as a Cub (trade bait?).

I think Ty is staying at Earl Cunningham's house. Jayson Peterson and Todd Noel know the address.

The hardest part about following minor league ball players of my favorite ML team is accepting the propect ceiling of the those players. I have been following Cub propects since I heard about Karl Pagel in 1979. He was a AAA Cubs outfielder who hit .316/39 HR/109 RBI. I couldn't wait for the Cubs next superstar outfielder to play in Wrigley in 1980. I was wrong. Karl didn't have the tools to stay in the majors. How about Carl Hamilton. He was a hard throwing lefty with a great season at Quad Cities in 1984. I remember reading about the next great Cub pitcher in the Trib. He blew out his arm the next year and the Tribune did a story years later about the once promising phenom while he was busing tables. The list of Cub prospect hopefuls that don't pan out is long, long, long. (This would make a great thread, remembering uber prospects that missed). A few years ago, I started to take a more pragmatic approach to my enthusiasm for my own sanity. With all the available resources available today and my own experience of following minor leaguers, I have developed a callus to understandable hype of unproven players. We all want to see propects pan out, make the Cubs and contribute. The hardest part is accepting when a prospect has become suspect. Most of the signs are there, but acceptance is hard. Occasionally, a Theriot or Soto make monumental strides in one year and break their suspectability. However and unfortunately, they are the exception. I would like to see Nate Spears make it to MLB. When the Cubs aquired him 3 years ago, I was hopeful as he had specs of a prospect, i.e., left hitting middle infielder that advanced to high A at a young age. He hit .294 with 30 doubles and the arrow was pointing up. On paper (or the internet) he looked good. But, signs of his limited prospect status started to show. He repeated high A twice. And he continually has shown the ability to be statisically average for a 2B, yes the ugly sister in the family photo album. 2008 was his best year. However, .299 at AA is not .299 or (for that matter) .250 in the bigs. He played well in the AFL, but he is not on the 40 man roster (bad sign). In the latest BA, there is an article on player development. BA put the Cubs minor league talent in the bottom four of all teams. For their 2009 Cubs top ten prospect list, BA chose to put Starlin Castro, a short-season prospect, at #7, not a good sign of system depth and another bad sign for the talent level of Nate Spears. I know we want to follow talent as it progresses so our hope can be reinforced. Unfortunately, the Cubs minor league talent at this time is diminished and looking for nuggets of hope is strained. Maybe Nate Spears can be a Theriot in his development cycle. Most signs point to a 4A minor leaguer or at best a MLB utility player on a bottom-half club. I would be happy to be proven wrong. I also know there is little to do in January with daily updates of progress months away.

There is nothing exceptional or above average in the minor league career of Nate Spears. He doesn't hit for high average or power. He doesn't steal bases and, from what I have gathered over the years of reading this forum, his glove work is average. He has repeated High A and double A, not a good sign of a future MLB player. And, he plays a position that is considered the ugly sister in the prospect family photo album. She's family, but rarely talked about. Typically, second base is for athletes that cannot make it at another position. Ryan Flaherty will wind up there. Ryan Sandberg was a shortstop in the Phillies system and played third his first year for the Cubs. Spears has been a second baseman since his career began. A highly regarded second base prospect must show some exceptional tool (usually, high batting avg.) early and repeat it on his climb up the ladder. Power is moved to third or the outfield. Fielding is tried at shortstop in the beginning. Speed (SB) is uncommon for a second baseman. Again, the ugly sister must prove herself again and again to be a legitamate prospect. I believe Nate Spears is still in the system because he was part of the Cory Patterson trade. His ability is unexceptional, although consistently average. He has no future in Wrigley and is at best trade bait for another minor league player, probably a relief pitcher with a good fastball or breaking ball, but with little control.

Wrigley Rat, you missed David Patton the rule 5 pick up. Also, I would have included Drew Rundle. I consider any prospect listed after 30 as a wish list. If so, then I would put Chris Huseby on the list if his potential turns into results. His ceiling is higher than most of the pitchers anywhere on the list. To further critique, I have seen Alex Maestri and Casey Coleman pitch and would rate them higher. Overall, I think you have a good ranking of prospects. Unfortunately, looking at all of them in order makes me sad. I see only four players with high-end talent to be special: Vitters, Samardzija, Cashner and Hak-Ju Lee. And, no one has seen Lee play! The rest of the list is filler at best at the MLB level. Let's hope surprises abound in 2009.