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The above variables can be plugged into a number of prospects across the minor leagues (including Hispanic heritage). However, Lake's status as a ML prospect pales to Soriano at the same stage. I think one of the most important differences between the two is family background and upbringing. From what I have read, Lake comes from a very poor upbringing and is stubborn to instruction. I have read that Soriano has relatively strong family support and (I would imagine) followed instruction at an early age. The above comparison is apt at pointing out how small differences can make a world of difference in the success of a player. Both Lake and Soriano are comparable in baseball tools, size and athletic ability - the scouts' matrix. However, maturity and wiliness to take instruction in a structured environment can separate young, unformed players quickly. Castro vs. Lake, no comparison now, but 4 years ago they were indistinguishable. Although Junior Lake has taken a strong step in his development this year, the holes in his game leave serious doubt on his future success. If he ended up being a poor man's ML Soriano, he would far surpass expectations. He could end up being a lessor version of Shawn Dunston. With better defense, I think his ceiling is Jose Hernandez with better speed and a career as a utility player/bottom-half team starter.

Anyone notice that Junior Lake ended his season with a golden sombrero? Now that the season is over, we should expect to see Clevenger and Dolis in Chicago. I hope Quade allows Clevenger to catch one game before the season ends.

Hmm . . . Cubs minor league player of the year. That's a toughie. I will take a wild guess and say Brian LaHair.

Hoilman achieves the golden sombrero with Boise last night. His stats reminds me of Rob Deer.

Bruce Miles had a Fleita and Farm report update on 8/23. Here are the tidbits:

I am happy to read Tim Wilkens' comments about the talent the Cubs have signed. I cannot recall a Cubs draft with this many high school prospects and its easy to get excited. However, they are 18 and 19 year olds. A lot changes in 4 or 5 years. The rule of thumb for a team's draft is that 5% to 10% of the 50 drafted will make it to MLB. That means this Cubs' draft will yield 2-5 players on average with a possible 7 or 8 for an exceptional year. That is a lot of failure for such bright futures. Yet, survival of the best is what competition is all about. I am making these comments because it is easy to want all of them to succeed and patience is very hard when looking at box scores day-after-day. I find the most important thing about this year's draft is the financial commitment made by the Ricketts to hire more scouts and sign higher ceiling/bigger bust amateur talent - not only in this draft, but also Dominican/Asian/ European amateurs. I cannot remember a time when Cubs' ownership has done so much with amateur talent in one year and I hope it continues for years to come. Now, we wait and see if the Cubs can develop this talent and find some difference makers.

After attending a Peoria series last year, I made some notes on some of the players of interest. Here is what I thought of Larry Suarez: "Big man, big rump. Pitches off a stiff front leg, like planting a pole vault. His knee locks into place and almost looks bent slightly backward. This will lead to more arm trouble in the future. He had trouble repeating his delivery as he fell off to the side every other pitch. He threw a 93/94 mph FB from the wind-up, but 89/91 FB from the stretch. For all his size, he is athletic, making a very quick pick-off move to 2nd to nail the runner." After watching his success in the box scores this year, I have wondered if the Cubs fixed his front leg plant. I thought that was his biggest problem with his mechanics. If anyone has a chance to see Suarez pitch this year, I would be curious to know his follow through.

Now that Jackson is getting close to the majors, I will bring up a comparison that long time Cub fans may understand. Jackson may turn out to be another Rick Monday. Left handed center fielder with power, speed, high strike out and walk totals in the lead-off spot. Even the batting average is close to projections. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Rick-Monday Jackson's minor stats mirror Monday's major stats. Eerily similar in many ways as a player. I liked Monday for a while, than tired of his limitations as an all or nothing hitter. Nice guy, good fielder, but now all but forgotten as a Cubs lead-off man. So the question is - are Cub fans ready for another Rick Monday in centerfield?

Jose Arias at DSL2 has come out of nowhere to become an intriguing prospect. He's 20 years old, 6'5" 220 lbs. starting RHP. I haven't read anything on him, but his stats are impressive and he seems to be the best pitcher on a the DSL2 team loaded with hitting prospects. http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=593507

Has Casey Harman moved past Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin and Austin Kirk as the Cubs best soft-tossing lefty prospect? He was a very successful college pitcher. He has pitched very well from day one in the minors. His stats have all the right numbers: low ERA, WHIP, opp. BA., very good BB/K ratio, etc. I can only recall one bad day on the mound. I don't think he will ever get any love from BA or any other online ranking service, but his success needs to be watched. He may turn out to be better than the three I mentioned above. Soft-tossing success stories usually don't come from the top rounds of the draft. Harman may turn out to be a 29th round ML pitcher.

Cubans don't speak Spanish? Do Chicagoans speak Illinois? I guess we will have to wait until August 8th. I hope the announcement will be in American.

Szczur was gone for over a week for his graduation - the team was 5-4. Remember the speculation on this board that he must have had a really good time. Anyway, I expected a quick reaction to this small query. Looking at stats and other numbers is only a small portion of what makes a player a prospect or non-prospect. Thinking about what is not said or done can lead to other insights that further our knowledge of a player's capability. I noticed something I thought was unusual and posted for others to speculate. I am not attacking the perceived good character of a prominent Cub prospect, but any good examination of a prospect starts with a good base of critical analysis. We shouldn't tie our emotions of wanting a player to succeed and overlook flaws that may hinder a prospect in the long run. Good analysis means having the ability to throw away insights when disproved and I expect the anomaly of Peoria's winning without Szczur to be disproved. However, its still important to speculate. And Raisin . . . I respect you too much to take your quick, misunderstood analogy of what I said to heart. The theory of Szczur rubbing his teammates the wrong is not tied to their perception of his public persona. But, his public persona can mask our understanding of how well Szczur gets along with his teammates (good or bad). I hope Szczur can bring Daytona out of its recent funk. The roster has been stripped of many of the players that brought such great, early success.

Here is something that I have noticed about Szczur that may be an anomaly or something more: When Szczur was not with Peoria during his college graduation and his recent absence for the futures game - the team went on a winning streak. I am not saying it has something to do with Szczur, but Peoria's record this year is not good and they have been blown out on numerous occasions. Just a thought to put in the back of the mind when evaluating Szczur as he climbs the organizational ladder. Maybe (a big maybe), for all the press he has received for doing good deeds and being a good guy, maybe he rubs teammates the wrong way. Again, just a thought going forward and I hope I am wrong.

I found this story on Wes Darvill at the Boise Hawks website: http://www.idahopress.com/sports/bigger-better-darvill/article_53ed7c9c-a866-11e0-aeaf-001cc4c002e0.html

LaHair's problem has always been that he gets himself out on inside pitching. Also, his swing is a bit long to catch up with consistently good ML FBs. There is a reason he is still in AAA at such an advanced age and I don't think he will go farther than a AAAA player. Although, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in Japan. I hate to put a damper on the positive posts for Nick Struck, but here it goes . . . I don't think he will amount to more than a middle reliever. There is a reason why scouts shy away from RH pitchers under 6' - stamina and durability. Struck has good stuff. He also gets hit the second or third time around the order. Results in his short career suggest hitters fair poorly if they only see him for one AB. With these small nuggets of information, I suspect Struck's top end will be a go-to middle reliever with the possibility of being a set up man.

Denial - Denial - Denial. Jackson's performance has dropped like a stone in a wishing well after the first 6 weeks of the season. I don't know if the reason is lingering effects from his hand injury or he is pressing to fulfill his personal time table to reach the majors. His drop in production and rise in strikeouts parallels with Marlon Byrd's injury (along with his injury). Remember, he dropped in the draft because he pressed the last year in college to hit more HRs to impress the scouts. And I will throw out a left field thought: Matt Szczur. Szczur is the new darling of the online scouting media (example: BA). Jackson might be pressing to keep his talent status within the Cub organization while Szczur is being talked about as the new stud CFer (and we can't forget HA's rising status). Players are keenly aware of the competition, from across the dugout to teammates. I still think Jackson will be an everyday MLB player, however, he needs to mature past his history to impress on his terms.

This from BA

Brian Dopirak was released by the Astros today. His AAA ops was .716

Per BA

Craig, I was not comparing Lake to Soriano as a prospect. Soriano was a $3 million bonus baby with enormous expectations. My comparison was a top of the order, sit on the FB, free-swinging hitter that is less productive anywhere else in the lineup. With the Yankees, Soriano hit 9th or lead-off - minimizing his high strikeouts, low OBP, but still taking advantage of his base stealing abilities (I know, low OBP at the top is an anomaly). Lake is showing a surprising aptitude for SBs, along with hitting for a higher average. This is what made me think of Soriano - success by playing up strengths (hit the FB and speed), while limiting weaknesses (pitch recognition, situational hitting). Also, the defiant part of my assessment was related to his coachability. I have been reading for a couple of years about his stubbornness taking instruction. The highlighting contrast between Lake and Castro has been Castro's willingness to absorb instruction, take notes and self-improve. The word on Lake has been the opposite or close to it. My belief that Lake has aggressive behavior (push to make things happen) stems from his success this year and historically high K totals. Overly aggressive hitters K a great deal. Lake is showing the talent to hit and he is still striking out a lot. Also, base stealing is aggressive by nature. I doubt that Lake is faster than Crawford, yet he has more SBs than Crawford. Maybe the Cub talent evaluators have tapped into Lake's "success" style of play. The bigger question to all this speculation is whether Lake can be a ML regular on a winning team or a sometime highlight player on a losing team. Cubs need winning players - Barney being a good example. Star players are a big part of the success of a team, but winning players do the little things - throw to the right base, catch the ball, advance the runner, take the extra base, knowing how to maintain a lead while pitching, etc. I don't see Lake as a star player, so he has to do the little things that win games. What will he be? I am curious to find out. Of course, this could all be redundant in 6 weeks.

I have never been a big supporter of Junior Lake, but I will make a couple of arguments in his favor. First, this could be his breakout year. He just turned 21 years old, he is now age appropriate for his league (if not a little young) and his history of being a poor Dominican with authority issues that doesn't take instruction well, could have clouded his talent. All players that have a ML future have a breakout year. Some start later than others (I am hoping Ryan Flaherty is finally having his year). So far, Lake is showing stats that indicate his potential, .300 avg./4HR in the FSL/17SB through late May. If Lake can sustain this breakout through the end of the season, it will be a good sign. A breakout year after early struggles suggests a player is learning his craft instead of using his raw talents to get by. Second, Lake is physically gifted, tall, athletic with a very strong arm. His prospect history was parallel to Starlin Castro when they came out of the DSL. This means that the Cubs are still high on his ability. He will continue to get preference over other players on position play, daily workload and finding a place in the order where he can succeed. An example of this: he is blocking the development of Logan Watkins as SS. I have read from several sources that Watkins best position is SS. He may not have the physical talents of Lake, but plays a better SS. Often, a player will struggle when he doesn't play his natural position and I think that is retarding Watkins' development at this time. Lake seems to have found success at the top of the order. This reminds me of Soriano. He can concentrate on hitting fastballs and not worry about situational hitting. I suspect he has aggressive behavior that complements a lead-off hitter that gets on base to steal second. The Cubs might be pushing that aggression to find his talent. There is an old axiom that states the best way to develop a player is to put him into the best position to succeed. I don't know what will ultimately become of Junior Lake. His background is a strike against his development. Defiant players eventually wear out their welcomes. I still want him to succeed and hope this year is a turning point. However, if he teases for too long, he will block others from fulfilling their talent. And that is something that can hinder an organization - misjudging talent.

I once saw Dr. Nick for a burning sensation during urination. His prescribed treatment was a colonoscopy. It Worked, I stopped thinking about the burning sensation.

Perez bats left, but throws right.

Darin Downs was a 5th round pick by the Cubs in 2003. He was a soft tossing lefty who was projected to add velocity when he filled out his frame. Apparently, his growth plates had yet to close and his scouting report played up that doctor's report of that medical affect, bigger + stronger = 90s FB and success. Unfortunately, Downs never added to his FB or showed much of his advertised pin-point control. He was rocked year after year and eventually released in High A. All his promise based on growth plates.

Okay, I am going to stretch a comparison, but I think it has some value. Brandon Webb was an 8th round pick in 2000. His scouting report - high 80s FB with heavy sink, throws strikes, 4th or 5th rotation starter - was very similar to Whitenack, also an 8th round pick. I am not saying that Whitenack's ceiling is Webb, but he is the same kind of pitcher that can be successful in the MLs. Whitenack reminds me of the pitchers from decades past when movement and the 2-seamer was stressed over the 4-seamer and velo. I saw Whitenack pitch last year at Peoria and was unimpressed with his stuff. Yet, he mowed the opposition down. With a pitcher like Whitenack, the best way to measure his prospect status is marking his results over time and level of competition rather than relying on reports of his raw stuff. I am starting to believe that he will be a factor in Chicago at some point in his future. I remember BA's Top 10 Cub's prospect ranking of Greg Maddux his last year in the minors - 5th. He had enormous success at every level he pitched (along with Jamie Moyer), but BA couldn't get past his slight build and slightly above average FB to rank him any higher. I can't remember the first four prospects on the list, but I believe Drew Hall was the apple of BA's eye. My point in bringing up Maddux is that sometimes results play up better than projections. Whitenack may never appear in BA's top 10 list for Cub prospects before he pitches in Wrigley - which might be this year. I don't know how to project Whitenack's future, but to use an Ornery Fleita euphemism, "He will tell us when he's ready" or more precise, he will show us what his ceiling is.