nick23

Our bullpen sucks. (in case you haven't noticed) But I still think we'll win this game

It's sad to say but this lineup makes me not even want to listen to the game. I just don't understand how he continues to put us at a disadvantage every day.

Today was a perfect example of why I don't want to give up the farm to aquire Dunn. Bases loaded 1 out and he can't even make contact. Before all of you jump on me and talk about sample size, I know. It was just one at bat in one game.

No. He doesn't have the experience. you can't be serious. neifi took a horrible line to that ball. at the very least that should have been knocked down. way to bring in dempster when it was too late, dusty. :x Yeah, Dempster really came in and mowed em down

that's a funny statement after reading your sig

The problem with using RBI is that there are too many factors outside a hitter's control for it to be useful. If one guy only has 30 men to drive in for a period of time and drives in 20, is he just as good as the guy who drove in 20 but had 50 men to drive in? Two players on different teams could do the exact same thing in every at bat and have drastically different RBI totals, because they are dependent on the player's teammates. But the only problem with using stats like Slg% and OPS is yeah those stats look real nice at the end of the year. But did he do it when it meant something. Say a guy has a slg% of .569 and an Ops of .957, we'd all agree those are great numbers. But how many times did he get the runner in from 3rd with less than two outs. How many 2 out rbi did he have that year. Those stats don't tell you those things. But the guy that finishes the year with 150 rbi tells me that when a run was needed to be driven in, more times than not he got it done. That's what I want out of my cleanup hitter. Not a fancy Slg, and Obp at the end of the season.

Why Carlos Lee? He's nothing special outside his RBI totals. I'd prefer every guy on that list to him. Maybe b/c he'll hit for around a .290 avg, hit about 35 HR and drive in around 120+ RBI..... nothing special eh? I'd rather have Lee than any of those guys actually The same Carlos Lee that's hitting .261? HR totals don't matter to me a ton, and RBI mean little to nothing to me. His lower OBP (albeit with a high SLG) diminishes his production. All 4 of those other guys create more runs than Lee. This thinking is getting out of control. How can Rbi's and Hr's mean nothing. Some of you guys like to talk about runs created, and I have no idea how all that stuff works. What I do know is that the best way to create a run is to hit a homerun. I'll also take a guy with a 150 rbi over a guy with a 150 walks. Sure home runs are great, but in evaluating a player I prefer things that take in the full picture. If a guy hits 20 HR, and hits only 5 doubles, he's not that great at "advancing players along the bases" the point BK alluded to earlier. If a guy has 20 HR and 30 doubles, he's obviously much better at this. How do we take that into account? SLG is a good crude measure as BK said before. If you don't know how a particular stat is measured, feel free to ask. In this case, Runs Created can be calculated many different ways. The RC I was using in those comparisons is what they use at The Hardball Times, which includes some situational hitting and includes Park Factors. Here's a basic definition of RC: (H + BB + HBP - CS - GIDP) times (Total Bases + .26(TBB - IBB + HBP) + .52(SH + SF + SB)) divided by (AB + TBB + HBP + SH + SF). Thanks for the definition. But if you're so big on advancing runners along the bases, I would think RBI's or (advancing runners past home plate) should be pretty important to you as well.

Why Carlos Lee? He's nothing special outside his RBI totals. I'd prefer every guy on that list to him. Maybe b/c he'll hit for around a .290 avg, hit about 35 HR and drive in around 120+ RBI..... nothing special eh? I'd rather have Lee than any of those guys actually The same Carlos Lee that's hitting .261? HR totals don't matter to me a ton, and RBI mean little to nothing to me. His lower OBP (albeit with a high SLG) diminishes his production. All 4 of those other guys create more runs than Lee. This thinking is getting out of control. How can Rbi's and Hr's mean nothing. Some of you guys like to talk about runs created, and I have no idea how all that stuff works. What I do know is that the best way to create a run is to hit a homerun. I'll also take a guy with a 150 rbi over a guy with a 150 walks. Preston Wilson drove in 141 runs one year. He's awesome. He was that year. Go back and chek his stats. Plus he's had major knee surgery since then. Great point though.

Why Carlos Lee? He's nothing special outside his RBI totals. I'd prefer every guy on that list to him. Maybe b/c he'll hit for around a .290 avg, hit about 35 HR and drive in around 120+ RBI..... nothing special eh? I'd rather have Lee than any of those guys actually The same Carlos Lee that's hitting .261? HR totals don't matter to me a ton, and RBI mean little to nothing to me. His lower OBP (albeit with a high SLG) diminishes his production. All 4 of those other guys create more runs than Lee. This thinking is getting out of control. How can Rbi's and Hr's mean nothing. Some of you guys like to talk about runs created, and I have no idea how all that stuff works. What I do know is that the best way to create a run is to hit a homerun. I'll also take a guy with a 150 rbi over a guy with a 150 walks.

I'm willing to bet that the same people who support getting Dunn, aren't the same people who were complaining all the runs came via the HR last year. The problem last year wasn't too many HRs. It was lack of walks and it's still a problem. Good pitching and the 3 run homer does work. It's good pitching and the solo homer that doesn't work. Good point. Like I said, I think the guy's a good player and he's definitely an upgrade. I just feel for what we need and how he'll be used, it's not a great fit. I just don't see him really helping out the middle of the order.

I remember last year and even at the begining of this year the big complaint was that all of our runs came via the HR. Well, if last year's team could be condensed into one player it would be Adam Dunn. The only runs this guy knocks in come via the HR. Sure his OBP won't hurt the team. But I want my cleanup hitter driving in runs not just simply getting on base. Whoever said bat him second was right IMO. But we all know Dusty will bat him 4th. And that's best case scenario. He'll probably bat him 6th behind Ramirez.

That might be a slight overstatement. OBP is much more valuable, but a hit is always better than a walk. I'd rather that people just stopped using BA as a key stat. Agreed. If he can get on base, thats all that matters. Yea, a hit is better than a walk sometiimes, but getting on base is better than not getting on base at all. I'd still rather have a guy bat .320 with a .360 obp than a guy bat .230 with a .400 obp. Some of you overvalue the walk a little too much. I'll take a single over a walk with a man on second and two outs every time. I can't think of a senario where a walk is better than a hit. Even with no one on base, a hit has a chance to be mishandled into an extrabase error. As BK pointed out in a previous thread, a player can get thrown out advancing a hit. And the .230/.400 guy will score more runs for your team than the .320/.360 guy. In that same scenario, the .320/.360 guy will drive in more runs. My point is unless we're planning on Dunn leading off, I want my middle of the order guy driving in runs, not taking walks while batting with RISP. That's not true. The guy may not drive in more runs himself, but when you compare [same lineup with .320/.360 guy] v. [same lineup with .230/.400 guy] the lineup with the .400 OBP guy is going to score more runs. Also worth pointing out, many of the people who fall closer to the .300/.360 category have very little power, while you'll find that .230/.400 guys are more TTT players and have significantly more power, which adds to the advantage they have over the .300/.360 guy. That's just completely untrue. Just doing a quick scan on ESPN stat leaders I see that Andrew Jones, Carlos Lee, and Mark Teixeira all have OBP's of less than .360. I would consider them all pretty powerful. They also all have more rbi's than Dunn. There's a reason Dunn has 25 Hr's and 52 rbi's. He doesn't hit with runners in scoring position. Now don't get me wrong I think he's a fine player with a lot of potential, but some of you who think he's the savior that will put this team over the top have him way overvalued. None of the players you mentioned are within 20 points of hitting .300, and Lee isn't even close to the .360 OBP benchmark laid out. RBI's aren't telling the whole story when it comes to Dunn. He walks often w/ RISP likely because he hits 6th in the Reds lineup. Were he in an appropriate place in the order, he would likely get more pitches to hit, and get a few more hits than walks in those situations. Regardless, RBI and even HR are not a very good way to measure run production. As it stands, Dunn is one of the most productive offensive players in the league. There may be debate on how much we should give up for him, but it really should be clear cut that he is about as good an acquisition any team could hope to make. Ok, you want someone almost dead on .300/.360? Aramis Ramirez. He's batting .309/.365. I guess he's not a power hitter either. By the way Todd Hollandsworth is his protection in the lineup right now. So don't give me this stuff about they pitch around Dunn that's why he has low RBI's. I just don't think he's what this team needs. He's definitely an upgrade in left but he's not worth what the Reds are asking.

RBIs are an independent stat. It's not Dunn's fault that his RBI total is low. It probably has more to do with the guys hitting in from of him. I think if you were to stick Dunn between Lee and Aram, he'd see better pitches to hit, and wouldn't be pitched around quite as much. Therefore, his Ks would go down, his average would go up, and his RBI total would go up. His walks would obviously go down, but he'd be hitting for a higher average so his OBP would stay about the same. If RBI's are an independent stat then so are runs scored. I think his low RBI totals are due more to the fact of his poor average than the people hitting in front of him.

That might be a slight overstatement. OBP is much more valuable, but a hit is always better than a walk. I'd rather that people just stopped using BA as a key stat. Agreed. If he can get on base, thats all that matters. Yea, a hit is better than a walk sometiimes, but getting on base is better than not getting on base at all. I'd still rather have a guy bat .320 with a .360 obp than a guy bat .230 with a .400 obp. Some of you overvalue the walk a little too much. I'll take a single over a walk with a man on second and two outs every time. I can't think of a senario where a walk is better than a hit. Even with no one on base, a hit has a chance to be mishandled into an extrabase error. As BK pointed out in a previous thread, a player can get thrown out advancing a hit. And the .230/.400 guy will score more runs for your team than the .320/.360 guy. In that same scenario, the .320/.360 guy will drive in more runs. My point is unless we're planning on Dunn leading off, I want my middle of the order guy driving in runs, not taking walks while batting with RISP. That's not true. The guy may not drive in more runs himself, but when you compare [same lineup with .320/.360 guy] v. [same lineup with .230/.400 guy] the lineup with the .400 OBP guy is going to score more runs. Also worth pointing out, many of the people who fall closer to the .300/.360 category have very little power, while you'll find that .230/.400 guys are more TTT players and have significantly more power, which adds to the advantage they have over the .300/.360 guy. That's just completely untrue. Just doing a quick scan on ESPN stat leaders I see that Andrew Jones, Carlos Lee, and Mark Teixeira all have OBP's of less than .360. I would consider them all pretty powerful. They also all have more rbi's than Dunn. There's a reason Dunn has 25 Hr's and 52 rbi's. He doesn't hit with runners in scoring position. Now don't get me wrong I think he's a fine player with a lot of potential, but some of you who think he's the savior that will put this team over the top have him way overvalued.

That might be a slight overstatement. OBP is much more valuable, but a hit is always better than a walk. I'd rather that people just stopped using BA as a key stat. Agreed. If he can get on base, thats all that matters. Yea, a hit is better than a walk sometiimes, but getting on base is better than not getting on base at all. I'd still rather have a guy bat .320 with a .360 obp than a guy bat .230 with a .400 obp. Some of you overvalue the walk a little too much. I'll take a single over a walk with a man on second and two outs every time. I can't think of a senario where a walk is better than a hit. Even with no one on base, a hit has a chance to be mishandled into an extrabase error. As BK pointed out in a previous thread, a player can get thrown out advancing a hit. And the .230/.400 guy will score more runs for your team than the .320/.360 guy. In that same scenario, the .320/.360 guy will drive in more runs. My point is unless we're planning on Dunn leading off, I want my middle of the order guy driving in runs, not taking walks while batting with RISP.

That might be a slight overstatement. OBP is much more valuable, but a hit is always better than a walk. I'd rather that people just stopped using BA as a key stat. Agreed. If he can get on base, thats all that matters. Yea, a hit is better than a walk sometiimes, but getting on base is better than not getting on base at all. I'd still rather have a guy bat .320 with a .360 obp than a guy bat .230 with a .400 obp. Some of you overvalue the walk a little too much. I'll take a single over a walk with a man on second and two outs every time. I'll take a walk over a ground out or pop out. Who wouldn't?

That might be a slight overstatement. OBP is much more valuable, but a hit is always better than a walk. I'd rather that people just stopped using BA as a key stat. Agreed. If he can get on base, thats all that matters. Yea, a hit is better than a walk sometiimes, but getting on base is better than not getting on base at all. I'd still rather have a guy bat .320 with a .360 obp than a guy bat .230 with a .400 obp. Some of you overvalue the walk a little too much. I'll take a single over a walk with a man on second and two outs every time.

Say what you want about his offense. But, Nefi sure is fun to watch in the field.

LOL you have GOT to be kidding me What's funny about those 2? Actually Buehrle's stretching it. I'm just frustrated right now.

LOL you have GOT to be kidding me What's funny about those 2?

Prior is good, even the best fall down sometimes. Wood was better in 2003, injuries and changes in mechanics have led to him failing to reach his lofty expectations. Fluke? No....but extremely lucky? Yes. Play that season 100 times, we make the playoffs maybe 25 times, we make it to the NLCS 10 times, we play game 7 3 times I wasn't trying to say Prior's not good. I know he's good. I was just saying maybe he's not as good as what we saw in 2003. After the 2003 season there wasn't 1 person in baseball I would have traded Prior straight up for. Now there are many people I would trade him for. Including several pithcers. Really? Care to make a list Maybe I'm stubborn but there still isn't any player except maybe Pujols (ignoring salary) that I would trade Prior for. The fact that you say maybe Pujols shows your stubborn. I'd say: Peavy Oswalt Buehrle Halladay Tejada Arod Cabrera That's just off the top of my head. I like Prior and think he's a great pitcher, but he's not the best player in the game like many of us thought 2 years ago.

Prior is good, even the best fall down sometimes. Wood was better in 2003, injuries and changes in mechanics have led to him failing to reach his lofty expectations. Fluke? No....but extremely lucky? Yes. Play that season 100 times, we make the playoffs maybe 25 times, we make it to the NLCS 10 times, we play game 7 3 times I wasn't trying to say Prior's not good. I know he's good. I was just saying maybe he's not as good as what we saw in 2003. After the 2003 season there wasn't 1 person in baseball I would have traded Prior straight up for. Now there are many people I would trade him for. Including several pithcers.

Anyone starting to think 2003 was just a complete fluke? Prior's not that good, Wood's definitely not that good.

this team is not very good.

So I guess Walker is protecting Burnitz today?