2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

[TomtheBombadil]

Start it off with some good stuff...Davis is BA’s 18th ranked prospect right now:

 

 

I guess this is more a postseason re-rank? They'll have a new top 100 out during the offseason, but still it seems fair to say he'll be a top 20 prospect in baseball. This is almost a decade old, maybe still has some use:

 

[TomtheBombadil]

https://www.milb.com/fans/milbys/top-starting-pitcher

 

Caleb Kilian's in the running for MiLB SP of the Year and honestly it's not crazy to say he should win? This isn't an award for best SP prospect, even only nominal or non-prospects have won IIRC in the past, just is about who had the best performance . Even after coming down a little with the Cubs, Kilian allowed just 5 HRs allowed over 100 IP to go with a K rate just below 30%, a K-BB% 25%+, and moved into the upper minors. He threw more innings than Baz, walked fewer and gave up fewer HRs than both Bradley and Rodriguez...

 

Voting's open until 11/3

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Start it off with some good stuff...Davis is BA’s 18th ranked prospect right now:

 

 

I guess this is more a postseason re-rank? They'll have a new top 100 out during the offseason, but still it seems fair to say he'll be a top 20 prospect in baseball. This is almost a decade old, maybe still has some use:

 

 

The BA list was last updated on 9/20.

[WrigleyField 22]

Is there room on the internet for two NSB websites?

 

https://northsidebound.com/2021/11/01/its-opening-day-for-north-side-bound/

[TomtheBombadil]

I <3 NAM's stuff but can't wrap my head around Kevin Made being so high on performance when that's a .662 OPS (.sub-.300 OBP), 1.59 GO/AO, and 6/57 BB:K in 243 PAs. To be that high with that kind of offensive performance this catch shouldn't be in the player's profile:

If you buy into him sticking at SS

 

That player has to be either a much better hitter or much more certain SS ( ideally both and at the same time), for sure the bar can't be that he was better here or there than a struggling first year player and a guy a level below with maybe a more promising debut. Made's got some tools for SS but his arm isn't as strong as say Howard's or Luis Vazquez's, and to tap into his power it's not hard to see him filling out and ending up as a 2B/3B or even utility guy. He's also the only sub-6fter in the SS group outside of like Pedro Ramirez, who at least early seems most likely to end up more a 2B/IF bat

 

Site looks fun, will peruse!

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Is there room on the internet for two NSB websites?

 

https://northsidebound.com/2021/11/01/its-opening-day-for-north-side-bound/

 

With Greg writing on both.

[Named After Maddux]

I <3 NAM's stuff but can't wrap my head around Kevin Made being so high on performance when that's a .662 OPS (.sub-.300 OBP), 1.59 GO/AO, and 6/57 BB:K in 243 PAs. To be that high with that kind of offensive performance this catch shouldn't be in the player's profile:

If you buy into him sticking at SS

 

That player has to be either a much better hitter or much more certain SS ( ideally both and at the same time), for sure the bar can't be that he was better here or there than a struggling first year player and a guy a level below with maybe a more promising debut. Made's got some tools for SS but his arm isn't as strong as say Howard's or Luis Vazquez's, and to tap into his power it's not hard to see him filling out and ending up as a 2B/3B or even utility guy. He's also the only sub-6fter in the SS group outside of like Pedro Ramirez, who at least early seems most likely to end up more a 2B/IF bat

 

Site looks fun, will peruse!

 

Always appreciate the support! Honestly I’m on an island with Made and it’s aggressive, like very aggressive. Part of that is trying to reconcile how I balance something more tangible in statistics and metrics vs the intangible in the eye test. I don’t have a full scouting background so the latter is going to have a much higher variance. I may nail a couple players, but will likely miss on more as I try to refine it. I really buy what I’m seeing which is an 18 year old who showed off strong bat to ball skills against 22-24 year olds in tough parks. The athleticism was better than I thought too. I dunno. Honestly I just feel convicted. That’s the fun of it. It might be a total flop!

That defense line about SS was sloppy and that’s my bad. I totally think he has the athleticism to stick at SS. His ranking would be around 12th if he was a 2B/3B projection.

 

I reached out to some Cubs hitting contacts just to see if I was out of my mind and the feedback I received (obviously unsourced) is that they feel Made belongs in the (no particular order) Triantos, Caissie, Alcantara, PCA, and Hernandez group. But I also was quickly told that Preciado should be in there too. So I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m too high on Made and too low on Preciado. But I’m letting it ride!

 

Glad you like the site! It’s been a blast building it.

[WrigleyField 22]

Is there room on the internet for two NSB websites?

 

https://northsidebound.com/2021/11/01/its-opening-day-for-north-side-bound/

 

With Greg writing on both.

Who's that?

[weis21]

Is there room on the internet for two NSB websites?

 

https://northsidebound.com/2021/11/01/its-opening-day-for-north-side-bound/

 

With Greg writing on both.

Who's that?

Named after maddux

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

With Greg writing on both.

Who's that?

Named after maddux

 

And to clarify since there are two Gregs on the new NSB, our Greg is Greg Z.

[UMFan83]

I thought it was another Tim venture at first

 

 

 

"Northside" with a logo featuring a baseball and a compass. Did you get that classic NSBB logo trademarked Tim?

[Tim]

I thought it was another Tim venture at first

 

 

 

"Northside" with a logo featuring a baseball and a compass. Did you get that classic NSBB logo trademarked Tim?

lol - no

[craig]

Greg or others, I haven't had a chance to carefully read all of the reports you've got. But in skimming a couple of the pitchers, I noticed a couple of references to the Cubs prospects and [highlight=yellow]"long arm path"[/highlight].

 

Can you or others with pitching expertise comment briefly on the impact that has? The pros-and-cons of longer delivery versus a shorter one? If the Cubs are fine with it, but some other smart teams are not, I'd be curious to understand the pros-and-cons logic from either/both sides of the issue.

 

Not sure what's all at play. Injury risk? Deception or lack thereof? Holding runners and getting stolen against? Repeatability, the ability to keep sync and rhythm, resulting control, and command? Tunneling? Velocity? Spin rates? The ability to throw different pitches with the same arm slot and arm speed?

 

[highlight=yellow]So yeah, if you or others might be able to summarize why some teams value/prefer/recommend shorter/quicker arm paths would be helpful. And then if possible to summarize the Cubs logic that longer arm path is fine and is not a liability, that would be helpful too.[/highlight]

 

Thanks in advance!

[Bertz]

I reached out to some Cubs hitting contacts just to see if I was out of my mind and the feedback I received (obviously unsourced) is that they feel Made belongs in the (no particular order) Triantos, Caissie, Alcantara, PCA, and Hernandez group. But I also was quickly told that Preciado should be in there too. So I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m too high on Made and too low on Preciado. But I’m letting it ride!

 

Tons of great stuff Greg, but this really stands out to me. I'm not totally surprised, but I'm intrigued that those six are all lumped together by the org. It makes sense, aside from Brennen if we're going to get a star out of the farm it's most likely to be from that grouping, but good to see the org's thinking is in line with what seems apparent from the public side. With how much information asymmetry there is nowadays that alignment is not always something to take for granted.

[Tim]

I reached out to some Cubs hitting contacts just to see if I was out of my mind and the feedback I received (obviously unsourced) is that they feel Made belongs in the (no particular order) Triantos, Caissie, Alcantara, PCA, and Hernandez group. But I also was quickly told that Preciado should be in there too. So I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m too high on Made and too low on Preciado. But I’m letting it ride!

 

Tons of great stuff Greg, but this really stands out to me. I'm not totally surprised, but I'm intrigued that those six are all lumped together by the org. It makes sense, aside from Brennen if we're going to get a star out of the farm it's most likely to be from that grouping, but good to see the org's thinking is in line with what seems apparent from the public side. With how much information asymmetry there is nowadays that alignment is not always something to take for granted.

I think the most disappointing thing with that is that Howard doesn't rate inclusion.

[Bertz]

Greg or others, I haven't had a chance to carefully read all of the reports you've got. But in skimming a couple of the pitchers, I noticed a couple of references to the Cubs prospects and [highlight=yellow]"long arm path"[/highlight].

 

Can you or others with pitching expertise comment briefly on the impact that has? The pros-and-cons of longer delivery versus a shorter one? If the Cubs are fine with it, but some other smart teams are not, I'd be curious to understand the pros-and-cons logic from either/both sides of the issue.

 

Not sure what's all at play. Injury risk? Deception or lack thereof? Holding runners and getting stolen against? Repeatability, the ability to keep sync and rhythm, resulting control, and command? Tunneling? Velocity? Spin rates? The ability to throw different pitches with the same arm slot and arm speed?

 

[highlight=yellow]So yeah, if you or others might be able to summarize why some teams value/prefer/recommend shorter/quicker arm paths would be helpful. And then if possible to summarize the Cubs logic that longer arm path is fine and is not a liability, that would be helpful too.[/highlight]

 

Thanks in advance!

 

So here's a great article on the pro's

 

 

I haven't seen anything on the cons, so my guess is that it's a "don't risk breaking someone who's going well" sort of deal. I also wonder if it negatively affects deception?

Cleveland is preemptively changing guys, while other smart orgs appear to be doing it on an as needed basis. And the Cubs did change Jason Adam, so while they're not Cleveland it's in their repertoire.

 

This will be a good early thing to look at next year. If a bunch of guys change, then clearly Hawkins is coming to the conversation with some authority that he *knows* it's right. If we don't see it, then it's likely a change that comes with both pros and cons and should be more case-by-case.

[craig]

Thanks, Bertz, that was a really helpful and interesting article. Seems not surprising that the Cubs are rarely near the cutting edge on developments like this.

[TomtheBombadil]

Really good read, thanks for the link Bertz. The article mentions it early but the shorter arm motion reminds me of a quarterback's throwing motion. This also stood out to me. Keeping players and pitchers healthier than other teams is a big one, The Future even:

 

While there are no peer-reviewed studies on whether it's a safer arm path, only one of Cleveland's major-league pitchers (Cody Anderson) has had Tommy John surgery since 2015, tying the Chicago Cubs for the lowest mark in the majors. (Mike Clevinger had Tommy John after being traded by Cleveland to San Diego.)

 

Cleveland SPs are 1st in IP, 3rd in BB%, and 2nd in K rate during that span too

[Bertz]

Thanks, Bertz, that was a really helpful and interesting article. Seems not surprising that the Cubs are rarely near the cutting edge on developments like this.

 

They're definitely not cutting edge, but I do think, at least on the pitching side, they're in that second tier of teams. Like if you were to line up each FO by how much they "get" pitching, the Cubs would probably be in the 5-10 range. For instance, the Yankees are a smart progressive FO with unlimited resources, and the Cubs stood up their pitch lab two full years earlier.

 

The Cubs are clearly at this point one of the team's that can spin straw into competent bullpen arms, and while we haven't gotten any primo pitching from the farm yet the org already has a rep as one that can magically increase dudes' velocity. They also started loading up on seam shifted wake and vertical approach angle guys a year or so before those concepts made their way to the public.

 

This year will likely confirm/deny that though. With the loaded Tenn rotation, Adbert and Steele in MLB, and Kilian at Iowa, there's really no excuse to not have two+ rotation spots comfortably locked up with pre-arb pitchers at this point next year.

 

I'm also really interested to see next year if they can show a similar progress with bats. They hit on older quad-A guys at a pretty good clip last year, was that a fluke or have they figured something out? And does it extend to actual prospects, because Iowa is going to have a pretty loaded lineup next year for the first time since like 2015. Successfully integrating those guys into MLB would prove a lot on this side of the ball as well.

[TomtheBombadil]

Always appreciate the support! Honestly I’m on an island with Made and it’s aggressive, like very aggressive. Part of that is trying to reconcile how I balance something more tangible in statistics and metrics vs the intangible in the eye test. I don’t have a full scouting background so the latter is going to have a much higher variance. I may nail a couple players, but will likely miss on more as I try to refine it. I really buy what I’m seeing which is an 18 year old who showed off strong bat to ball skills against 22-24 year olds in tough parks. The athleticism was better than I thought too. I dunno. Honestly I just feel convicted. That’s the fun of it. It might be a total flop!

That defense line about SS was sloppy and that’s my bad. I totally think he has the athleticism to stick at SS. His ranking would be around 12th if he was a 2B/3B projection.

 

I reached out to some Cubs hitting contacts just to see if I was out of my mind and the feedback I received (obviously unsourced) is that they feel Made belongs in the (no particular order) Triantos, Caissie, Alcantara, PCA, and Hernandez group. But I also was quickly told that Preciado should be in there too. So I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m too high on Made and too low on Preciado. But I’m letting it ride!

 

Glad you like the site! It’s been a blast building it.

 

Yeah, yous guys are getting things done. Good stuff getting players involved, collaborating, etc.

 

You know, I actually overlooked Made posted a league average K rate. He also finished with like a 20% K rate over his last 150 PAs. There's merit to that bat to ball thing, and in combo with his age and position yeah...makes more sense to me having him so high. I think I've comped Made's ceiling or whatever to Orlando Cabrera before so it's not so much that I don't see a bad or low upside player (Cabrera put up ~25 career fWAR) so much as probably not a great hitter (as that goes anyway). That GO/AO closer to two than not really stands out in today's game

 

Also I actually have an "interesting" anecdote about getting feedback from club officials, which is obviously extremely worth getting despite this: I had an exchange with a pretty high up Cubs guy before Eloy broke out and Duane Underwood was the hot hand among really young prospects in full season ball. I asked who the next big thing was, expecting the answer to be Eloy since he was a top ranked amateur (IIRC #1 for the 2013 7/2 class) who had come in and flashed some average and power in the AZL as a giant 17, got the bump out of Rk for his age 18. Underwood as totally the guy to watch yada yada best stuff best, breaking ball, stuff I was already reading all summer. Alright cool, what about this Eloy Jimenez guy? (Jimenez was injured at the time, NWL, 16th for BA’s 2014 top 31, 14th entering 2015 for Pipeline). Tiniest pause and reaction was more or less oh you know about Eloy? He's coming along, we like him. It was an interesting exchange, wish I had the gametape bc I wore my Underwood skepticism on my sleeves probably. The vibe I got was that these guys are aware of the wider prospect meta and had something of a gameplan and talking points. In this case, someone inside an org lumping *7* teenagers as relatively equal and high ceiling MLers is alot

[Tim]

Really good article on Velazquez from Sharma today. I found this blurb very interesting:

It took Velazquez time to really find a rhythm with his adjusted swing. He got early results, but according to Stone, that was because of his special exit velocity. Stone said that there are three hitters in the Cubs’ system who are productive hitters that hit the ball at a different speed than everyone else. One is Brennen Davis, the Cubs’ top prospect who’s widely considered one of the best position-player prospects in baseball. Another is Owen Caissie, who reportedly hits the ball as hard as any player in professional baseball. And then there’s Velazquez.

That might have me bump Caissie a couple of spots, too.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA Cubs top 10: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1004/chicago-cubs/organizational/

 

1 Brennen Davis OF

2 Cristian Hernandez SS

3 Brailyn Marquez LHP

4 Pete Crow-Armstrong OF

5 Jordan Wicks LHP

6 Kevin Alcantara OF

7 Caleb Kilian RHP

8 Owen Caissie oF

9 D.J. Herz LHP

10 Yohendrick Pinango OF

[Tim]

BA Cubs top 10: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/1004/chicago-cubs/organizational/

 

1 Brennen Davis OF

2 Cristian Hernandez SS

3 Brailyn Marquez LHP

4 Pete Crow-Armstrong OF

5 Jordan Wicks LHP

6 Kevin Alcantara OF

7 Caleb Kilian RHP

8 Owen Caissie oF

9 D.J. Herz LHP

10 Yohendrick Pinango OF

Well, that's a ranking.

 

I see most of those as reasonably defensible. Though there's no way I'd have Pinango over Preciado. Also, after missing a whole year, I'm not going to rank Marquez nearly that high. But I can see why others might. I hope Wicks lives up to that ranking, but I really want to see some more results before putting him that high.

 

Other than that, though, we've got a whole bunch of guys behind Davis that could slot in the rankings in varying order.

[JeffH]

Triantos and Jensen before Pinango.

[Rob]

For contrast, here's a reminder of Fangraphs top 10.

 

1. Brennen Davis

2. Kevin Alcantara

3. Reginald Preciado

4. Cristian Hernandez

5. Ed Howard

6. Brailyn Marquez

7. Pete Crow-Armstrong

8. Miguel Amaya

9. Jordan Wicks

10. Owen Caissie

 

I can see dropping Howard down after his rough showing, and the stats and scouts have long been split on Amaya, but Preciado hit a bit this year. Shocked not to see him in BA's top 10.