2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Wed Jul 20, 2022 8:40 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:....
Here’s the strategy behind taking top 5 round level prepsters on Day 3 (this is from last year’s draft so the pool space might be a bit different):
https://ivyfutures.com/2021/07/18/kept- ... antrovitz/

According to Kantrovitz, the Cubs planned to be creative in bringing in a player who they viewed as a top two-three round talent (effectively the caliber of player they would take if they had a competitive balance pick) by being in a position to offer one player slightly more than the $125k routinely offered on day three. “We aimed to finish day two, with roughly, $80[k]-$100k in surplus in our pool that would enable us to then fire off a bullet of roughly $200k for one player on day three,” Kantrovitz said. “We estimated that we could get a player that was a top, two-three round caliber player with that bullet.” If fans are concerned that statement suggests the Cubs will only sign one of the seven prep players on day three, Kantrovitz stated that there the Scouting Department had some good “intel” that there may be quality high school players available who would consider signing for the $125k. It appears that is coming to fruition.


That logic seems great.

Interesting that last summer they took 7 preps on day 3; this year only 3, if in fact Wheat, who'll turn 20 within two weeks, is viewed in that pool.
Last year he said they had "intel" that some high school player might consider signing for $125. Three did (Cunningham, olivo, and Rodriguez).

I wonder if he did the same thing this year, but only took 3? And if so, if they are all the "bullet" guys? Or whether one, two, or all three might consider signing for the $125? Or if maybe Rujano already is that bullet, with none left?
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Named After Maddux » Wed Jul 20, 2022 11:53 pm

sneakypower wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:If they hadn't added Carter Hawkins as GM I'd hate adding all the pitching too, but given his history I'm kind of excited to see what he can do.

even if you're ready to give him outsized credit in their overall P dev, mostly all their guys, Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger/Civale/Karinchak etc. were mid-late round finds- that should further remove the desperate need to expend such a heavy investment in the position, where you're still making a big reach with a top-10 pick against the universal consensus

this is likely to remain a bad offensive ballclub for a long while (like CLE), which i fundamentally hate, and that really puts all our eggs in the Craig Breslow basket to be strongly competitive


Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger… etc fit a similar profile coming out of the draft, but Cleveland pivoted pretty hard in the last couple years targeting power pitching early. Both Espino and Williams were first round power pitchers. Obviously it’s hard to know how much specific involvement Carter had there, but to then see them target power pitchers heavily was intriguing. It’s still a risky strategy, but it’s intriguing.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jul 21, 2022 12:13 am

Named After Maddux wrote:
sneakypower wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:If they hadn't added Carter Hawkins as GM I'd hate adding all the pitching too, but given his history I'm kind of excited to see what he can do.

even if you're ready to give him outsized credit in their overall P dev, mostly all their guys, Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger/Civale/Karinchak etc. were mid-late round finds- that should further remove the desperate need to expend such a heavy investment in the position, where you're still making a big reach with a top-10 pick against the universal consensus

this is likely to remain a bad offensive ballclub for a long while (like CLE), which i fundamentally hate, and that really puts all our eggs in the Craig Breslow basket to be strongly competitive


Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger… etc fit a similar profile coming out of the draft, but Cleveland pivoted pretty hard in the last couple years targeting power pitching early. Both Espino and Williams were first round power pitchers. Obviously it’s hard to know how much specific involvement Carter had there, but to then see them target power pitchers heavily was intriguing. It’s still a risky strategy, but it’s intriguing.


Heck, even the year before the Bieber draft, they took Triston McKenzie in the first. Completely different risk profile.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jul 21, 2022 3:37 am

Responding to cincycub31's questions:

1 - My favorite pick turned out to be Jackson Ferris. You can maybe say right off the bat his combo of size, physicality, stuff, health, pedigree, command, and makeup (another bulldog) make him the most prototypical SP prospect in the org for what that’s worth. He’s young enough they can build up the innings and end up with a high volume power lefty rotation arm. I consider him the Brennen Davis to Horton's Hoerner, a player with a loud combo of size and tools drafted after a likely MLer

Also a big fan of how the Ferris pick compliments the Horton pick. Ferris is something of a throwback in that he has big innings potential and a clean arm (which, I think, is greeted with suspicion in the draft these days? Depends on the $ ask I guess). Horton, I suspect anyway, is more The Future of drafting NCAA starting pitching high? Low mileage (but the work there is very high stress), not really a nuanced game or potential high volume SP prospect at this stage if ever, but premium athlete (HS football player, multi-position player at the NCAA) with the velocity and offspeeds to start

2 - Brody McCullough? Luis Rujano? JP Wheat? The former allowed just 4 HRs in 189 IP in college, closed out his college career with a strong run in the CCBL. Multiple spins, fastball, up tempo delivery with some deception, versatile (started 28 of 68 games at the college level leagues), experienced. Rojano's much more raw than Ferris but also a giant, physical power arm taken out of HS. Wheat's very old for the HS class but also has plenty of tools

3 - Horton should pretty easily make most-all top 10s, personally strongly considering both he and Ferris. Mule probably in the top 30 too, those tools are loud

If they trade Contreras then I don't get why they passed on Parada outside of money, but otherwise enjoyed this draft. Think I said it but it's not a draft that screams seller, the opposite even since pitching moves
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Jul 21, 2022 4:38 pm

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Re: RE: Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Irrelevant Dude » Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:03 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/1550157717448318977?t=gunKZtjGjspjR0vN9U6JmQ&s=19
The spelling of his first name bothers me way more than it should.
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Re: RE: Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:30 pm

Irrelevant Dude wrote:
Bertz wrote:
The spelling of his first name bothers me way more than it should.


Better than spelling his name Hayden Simpson.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Jul 21, 2022 5:43 pm



This is, unsurprisingly, very good
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Thu Jul 21, 2022 8:05 pm

https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/cu ... n-on-arms/

32 minutes, Kantro on from 5 minutes to the end. I love hearing him talk about both the players and the process.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:19 pm

Saw this from Kantrovitz on Ferris and got fired up, way up:

"This wasn't somebody that was just coming in and pitching with two pitches for two innings," Kantrovitz said. "He’s throwing complete games and showing off four pitches and going multiple times through the order and showing ability to make in-game adjustments.”

"It kind of went above and beyond sort of your typical times-two-pitch high school pitcher. This is somebody with a full repertoire, and once he adds a little weight to his frame, we think he's pretty ripe to add power across his whole mix."
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CubinNY » Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:30 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/1550157717448318977?t=gunKZtjGjspjR0vN9U6JmQ&s=19

This is the pick I’m most excited about. Seriously, he could be the steal of the draft if he can stick at his position.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jul 21, 2022 11:47 pm

CubinNY wrote:This is the pick I’m most excited about. Seriously, he could be the steal of the draft if he can stick at his position.


Yeah, I'm rooting for him to get some ML money after such a great college career. Great size (listed 6'5" 235) for the pro game at a variety positions including 1B, it's a win already that he caught most often among the non-3B corner positions as an amateur whether he sticks or not

Here's hoping he's low key a Goldschmidt level athlete or something
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jul 22, 2022 4:06 am

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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Jul 22, 2022 11:38 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:it's a win already that he caught most often among the non-3B corner positions as an amateur whether he sticks or not

What does this mean?
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Bertz » Fri Jul 22, 2022 12:29 pm



(1/7) 22. Cade Horton, RHP, Oklahoma (45 FV)
(2/47) 41. Jackson Ferris, LHP, IMG Academy HS (FL) (45 FV)
(3/86) 115. Christopher Paciolla, SS, Temecula Valley HS (CA) (40 FV)
(4/113) 130. Nazier Mule, RHP, Passaic County Tech HS (NJ) (40 FV)
(5/143) 180. Brandon Birdsell, RHP, Texas Tech (35+ FV)
(6/173) 264. Will Frisch, RHP, Oregon State (35+ FV)
(19/563) 296. Brock Blatter, RHP, Billings Central Catholic HS (MT)
(11/323) HM. Branden Noriega, LHP, No School
(13/383) HM. Luis Rujano, RHP, Sunshine State Elite HS (FL)
(14/413) HM. Shane Marshall, RHP, Georgia

I thought Horton would go just after the Cubs took him, but his last month of the season when he went from second/third round to the top 10 picks is an outlier that will be referenced for the next decade. Among the college pitchers, he and Prielipp come with the least track record of being this kind of guy so their pro debuts have the potential to move them the most. If what Horton is doing keeps working, I think he'll look like peak Chris Archer: second/third starter whose best pitch is a 65-or-70-grade slider (that he learned a couple of months ago!) and a good-enough mid-90s heater.

Ferris was right there with Dylan Lesko and Brandon Barriera for a year-plus at the top of a historically strong prep pitching class, but the latter two separated a bit this spring. Ferris' stuff was more 50-to-55 grade this spring rather than the multiple plus pitches the others were showing, but I think a delivery tweak will give Ferris starter command and three above-average pitches. Paciolla is a hit-first prep infielder, Mule is a rocket-armed righty (up to 100 mph) who will show a plus breaker at times but has some relief risk, Birdsell is an older college power arm with some medical history but is coming off a strong campaign converting to a starting role, while Frisch has a mid-90s heater but missed the season with Tommy John surgery.

On Day 3, the Cubs added Noriega (Draft League standout up to 97 mph with an above breaker), Rujano (sitting mid-90s late in the year with a three-pitch mix), Marshall (longtime catcher recently converted to pitching, works mid-90s) and Blatter (big, but limited reps also into the mid-90s in the Draft League).
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:27 pm

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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jul 22, 2022 5:56 pm



Slot for their 7th round pick is $237,300 and $249,165 with the 5% overage. That works out to a $212,300 savings on slot and $224,165 savings on the overage.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Tim » Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:35 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/jsz_sports/status/1550528056200204289?s=21&t=Ac8i4Ug_SyJPWfQ_DEtbQw

YES
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:40 pm

Bertz wrote:

I thought Horton would go just after the Cubs took him, but his last month of the season when he went from second/third round to the top 10 picks is an outlier that will be referenced for the next decade. Among the college pitchers, he and Prielipp come with the least track record of being this kind of guy so their pro debuts have the potential to move them the most. If what Horton is doing keeps working, I think he'll look like peak Chris Archer: second/third starter whose best pitch is a 65-or-70-grade slider (that he learned a couple of months ago!) and a good-enough mid-90s heater.


And the Athletic dropped a Lance McCullers comp on Horton, which makes sense since he and Archer are probably the two best FB/SL primary 2-pitch starters in recent years.

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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Savermetrics » Fri Jul 22, 2022 6:49 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Slot for their 7th round pick is $237,300 and $249,165 with the 5% overage. That works out to a $212,300 savings on slot and $224,165 savings on the overage.


As a heads up, updated slot figures are here. Slot for pick 203 is now $237,500. Jim Callis found out about the increase either right before or during the draft, then posted 'em all on Wednesday.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jul 22, 2022 7:48 pm

Savermetrics wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Slot for their 7th round pick is $237,300 and $249,165 with the 5% overage. That works out to a $212,300 savings on slot and $224,165 savings on the overage.


As a heads up, updated slot figures are here. Slot for pick 203 is now $237,500. Jim Callis found out about the increase either right before or during the draft, then posted 'em all on Wednesday.


That’s right! Thanks and thanks for all the great work you do!
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jul 22, 2022 9:46 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:it's a win already that he caught most often among the non-3B corner positions as an amateur whether he sticks or not

What does this mean?


I was hoping to get away with this mess. Just that putting up the numbers he did at catcher bodes relatively well for his chances of being a prospect at all vs somewhere further down the defensive spectrum
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Jul 23, 2022 4:02 am

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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sat Jul 23, 2022 4:11 am

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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Bertz » Sat Jul 23, 2022 2:25 pm



A smidge more than a lot at #13
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