2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Discussion about the June amateur draft, college baseball, high school baseball, etc.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jul 19, 2022 10:47 pm





18-19 would be great considering they picked a few prep guys today.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:23 pm

13th rounder:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 45 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40

Rujano’s size and arm strength certainly made him stand out on last summer’s showcase circuit, and he made the rounds, pitching at events like Perfect Game’s National Showcase and the East Coast Professional Showcase. While he hasn’t made any huge steps forward in terms of pitchability, the raw tools on the mound still stand out.

The big right-hander checks off all the boxes in terms of his physicality, using his 6-foot-4 frame well and making it easy to dream on more to come once he gets pro instruction. He’s been up to 96 mph with his fastball, typically sitting in the low 90s now. He has a tight slider but struggles to spin his breaking ball consistently, and while there’s some feel for a changeup, it’s also inconsistent.

Rujano uses a methodical delivery with a big kick out of the windup and is still much more thrower than pitcher, with a need to work on his command. The South Florida recruit will be 19 at Draft time, and any team interested in selecting him will likely have to be patient on the development side for him to tap into his raw tools consistently on the mound.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:26 pm

19th rounder:

PL:

472
Brock Blatter
RHP Billings Central Catholic Billings, MT
Blatter has the makings of a prototype RHP with a low-90s fastball, up to 95 with the accoutrements of a curveball, slider and changeup. The two breaking ball are far ahead of the offspeed offering. An Alabama commit, Blatter has gotten plenty of big league interest this summer.


BA:

407
Brock Blatter
Billings (Mon.) Central Catholic HS
RHP
Notes:
HT: 6-6 | Wt: 215 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Alabama
Age At Draft: 19
Blatter has had an unusual path as a high school prospect, thanks mostly to being a Montana product. The state doesn’t have high school baseball and because of that, Blatter has been harder to scout than most. He pitched in Arizona and for the Area Code Select Brewers this spring, where he mostly pitched in the upper 80s, but also made his way to MLB’s Draft League during the summer, where he initially struggled with control, but started throwing a fastball in the 91-95 mph range. Blatter is a 6-foot-6, 215-pound righthander with a great frame and solid arm talent now. He has thrown two breaking balls, though the slider is the better of the two and during the Draft League it was a mid-80s pitch with spin in the 2,600-2,700-rpm range. There are a few teams intrigued with Blatter’s size and improving stuff and he would seemingly have plenty of projection remaining as a cold weather arm who hasn’t pitched too frequently. If teams are scared off the profile due to his relative lack of history, Blatter could head to campus at Alabama. He has a chance to be the first high school player drafted out of Montana since righthander Gage Hinsz in 2014.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:29 pm

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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Tim » Tue Jul 19, 2022 11:32 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/mdgonzales/status/1549516789608054785?s=21&t=FGlRncyvG9Q36qb4_ernsw



18-19 would be great considering they picked a few prep guys today.

If they sign 18-19 of these guys I'm going to be ecstatic
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby cincycub31 » Wed Jul 20, 2022 12:52 pm

I don't really follow amateur baseball and don't know much about the draft picks, so I'll ask those that do know:
1. What is your favorite pick?
2. Which guy not in the top 5 rounds are you most excited about?
3. Where do any of these draft picks slot in the Cubs Top 30 prospects? I'm assuming Horton and Ferris...any others?
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CubinNY » Wed Jul 20, 2022 1:12 pm

cincycub31 wrote:I don't really follow amateur baseball and don't know much about the draft picks, so I'll ask those that do know:
1. What is your favorite pick?
2. Which guy not in the top 5 rounds are you most excited about?
3. Where do any of these draft picks slot in the Cubs Top 30 prospects? I'm assuming Horton and Ferris...any others?

Great questions, I can't wait to see what everyone thinks. The thing that is most interesting to me is that by the looks of the draft they obviously are using some type of empirical basis for their decision-making with regard to pitching metrics and their confidence in developing pitching. Let's hope they one, have found the secret sauce and two, are able to bring it to market.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Jul 20, 2022 1:20 pm

My favorite thing they did, which also manifests itself in my favorite pick outside the top 5 rounds, was gamble on the unknowns with players that had recent TJS. If Horton had TJS a few months earlier, it's possible that he's considered the next Jon Gray come draft day, which might mean he doesn't make it to 7 and certainly means he doesn't come under slot. This also extends to Frisch, who was good and ready to step into a big role at a premier program while having strong SP building blocks before needing TJS. To get him in the 6th I think is shrewd business.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Jul 20, 2022 1:42 pm

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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Jul 20, 2022 1:45 pm

cincycub31 wrote:I don't really follow amateur baseball and don't know much about the draft picks, so I'll ask those that do know:
1. What is your favorite pick?
2. Which guy not in the top 5 rounds are you most excited about?
3. Where do any of these draft picks slot in the Cubs Top 30 prospects? I'm assuming Horton and Ferris...any others?



1. Gotta be Nazier Mule, right? He probably doesn't spend too long doing the two-way thing, but it's exciting especially when he throws triple digits as a pitcher
2. Shane Marshall (14th round) probably? He's a catcher, threw a few innings in a blowout where his fastball metrics absolutely popped and the team took him as a pitcher. I think that's fun, and I believe it's similar circumstances to how the org ended up shifting Brandon Hughes to the mound
3. Keep in mind the Cubs have a pretty deep system, but I'd say Horton slots into the back of the top 10, Ferris around 15ish, while Mule, Birdsell, Paciolla, and maybe Frisch in the 20-30 range (or at least have a good argument to)
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Tim » Wed Jul 20, 2022 1:52 pm

Also, this is always a great resource to have bookmarked: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/ ... /htmlview#
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Tim » Wed Jul 20, 2022 2:01 pm

Bertz wrote:
cincycub31 wrote:I don't really follow amateur baseball and don't know much about the draft picks, so I'll ask those that do know:
1. What is your favorite pick?
2. Which guy not in the top 5 rounds are you most excited about?
3. Where do any of these draft picks slot in the Cubs Top 30 prospects? I'm assuming Horton and Ferris...any others?



1. Gotta be Nazier Mule, right? He probably doesn't spend too long doing the two-way thing, but it's exciting especially when he throws triple digits as a pitcher
2. Shane Marshall (14th round) probably? He's a catcher, threw a few innings in a blowout where his fastball metrics absolutely popped and the team took him as a pitcher. I think that's fun, and I believe it's similar circumstances to how the org ended up shifting Brandon Hughes to the mound
3. Keep in mind the Cubs have a pretty deep system, but I'd say Horton slots into the back of the top 10, Ferris around 15ish, while Mule, Birdsell, Paciolla, and maybe Frisch in the 20-30 range (or at least have a good argument to)

1. Definitely agree on Mule
2. Marshall is a great choice on this one, but I'm pretty excited about the potential for a lot of the 11-20 picks
3. I'd have Horton around the same place for now, but he's got a chance to rocket up the list if he shows in pro ball like he did during the CWS
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Tim » Wed Jul 20, 2022 2:03 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:https://twitter.com/savermetrics/status/1549747522830184450?s=21&t=J2K7KQBg3Ad5ZhatYcsrOw

Fantastic - I thought he'd be one of the tougher signs of the day 3 guys based on his MLB Pipeline ranking.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jul 20, 2022 2:08 pm

Bertz wrote:
cincycub31 wrote:I don't really follow amateur baseball and don't know much about the draft picks, so I'll ask those that do know:
1. What is your favorite pick?
2. Which guy not in the top 5 rounds are you most excited about?
3. Where do any of these draft picks slot in the Cubs Top 30 prospects? I'm assuming Horton and Ferris...any others?



1. Gotta be Nazier Mule, right? He probably doesn't spend too long doing the two-way thing, but it's exciting especially when he throws triple digits as a pitcher
2. Shane Marshall (14th round) probably? He's a catcher, threw a few innings in a blowout where his fastball metrics absolutely popped and the team took him as a pitcher. I think that's fun, and I believe it's similar circumstances to how the org ended up shifting Brandon Hughes to the mound
3. Keep in mind the Cubs have a pretty deep system, but I'd say Horton slots into the back of the top 10, Ferris around 15ish, while Mule, Birdsell, Paciolla, and maybe Frisch in the 20-30 range (or at least have a good argument to)


For me:

1. Without a doubt, Mulè. Probably the most exciting talent in the system since….Javy? He’s our own Masyn Winn, a guy I desperate wanted the Cubs to pick in 2020.
2. Frisch but the Day 3 prep arms (Rujano, Wheat, Blatter), especially if they can sign 2/3 of them. I liked the day 3 prep arm strategy last year too, though they failed to sign the two best last year (Ziehl and Avitia). Hopefully this year, they only let 1 get away.
3. Horton is in the back end of the top 10 (but the org’s 4th pitcher behind Wicks, Herz and Kilian). I believe there’s a set group of 12 at the top of this system’s rankings including Horton so Ferris can slot in somewhere around 13-15. Mulé in the 20s. The system is deep so it’s tough to have anyone else in my top 30 until we get an idea of how they play in the pros but I understand why you would have Birdsell and Paciolla in the top 30.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jul 20, 2022 2:21 pm

Tim wrote:3. I'd have Horton around the same place for now, but he's got a chance to rocket up the list if he shows in pro ball like he did during the CWS


A great point. I would like to see early confirmation in the pros for helium guys.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:51 pm

I'm a little conflicted on Mule. He seems like a really high-ceiling possibility, given the high velocity that he was clocked with once. So super exciting. So I love the possibilities, and I love the chance for Breslow and the pitch-lab guys to have a big-armed young guy that they can try to develop from the start. So I love all of that, and the hope that comes with it.

But as with any young prospect, and any pitcher really, I have several hesitancies:
1. Will velocity be amazing? Triple-digits is an attention-getter, but reports said he wasn't that fast this spring. Trevor Clifton and Duane Underwood come to mind as guys who'd hit 99 as juniors, who were perceived as exciting signs, who had solid velocity as pros but never anything amazing.
2. Injury risk: Reports said he had a sore arm this spring. Of course injury risk comes with every pitcher. But lots of sore-armed HS pitchers end up with arm problems.
3. Wildman: Reports suggested more thrower more than pitcher. We've seen a lot of guys recently who throw hard but are too wild to be very useful.
4. Pitchlab: My read is that the pitch lab has been more effective in improving velocity and pitch shape than in remediating control issues. Helping wildmen like Maples, Burl, or Jensen to locate consistently hasn't really been consistently transformative?

Obviously there is no drafting young pitches without risk, and I'm sure without the risks he'd not have still been available in round 4. Cubs are maybe overdue to click on some high-risk-high-reward guys.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jul 20, 2022 5:56 pm

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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby craig » Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:04 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:....
2. Frisch but the Day 3 prep arms (Rujano, Wheat, Blatter), especially if they can sign 2/3 of them. I liked the day 3 prep arm strategy last year too, though they failed to sign the two best last year (Ziehl and Avitia). Hopefully this year, they only let 1 get away....


Rujano has apparently already committed to the Cubs.

Kantro said he expected 18 or 19 to sign. I'm guessing Blatter is the guy who won't sign, and will go to Alabama and the SEC instead. Why take a guy you don't expect to sign? Not sure. Back in the old days, they'd always draft a couple of guys who they couldn't afford. At least, they couldn't afford unless either the player changed his mind and agreed for less than expected; or unless an expensive guy failed his physical, freeing up dollars. I imagine the other possibility is that maybe a guy won't sign now because he wants to try JuCo next spring.

The latter might make sense for a kid like Blatter; is he so good that he'll actually get innings at Alabama? He might be better off to play a year in Juco, and reassess. Maybe take $125 or $200 from the Cubs and go pro? Maybe don't, but if you've been so great maybe go into the draft and go higher? Or maybe go to Alabama, but with the understanding that you'll get a lot of innings once in the SEC, rather than maybe going now as a freshman and getting only 9 innings all season?
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Outshined_One » Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:25 pm

Having had some time to ruminate on the draft, my feeling on the draft is, I am disappointed that the Cubs took the approach they chose to take in passing over multiple seeming no-brainer guys in Lee/Parada/Collier and in going pitcher-heavy in a draft where there was apparent significant depth for position players. That was not the approach I wanted them to take.

However, what I will say in the Cubs' favor is they did just about as well as they could have in the approach they chose towards this draft. I have to rack my brain to come up with a list of more than a handful of quality power pitching prospects the Cubs have developed over the last 15 years who got to the majors and saw meaningful success over the course of multiple seasons (Samardzija, Marmol...and I guess arguments can be made for Archer and Cease?). This draft almost feels like a sea change in that regard. They definitely hit the proverbial nail on the head in that focus. From the sounds of things, most of these guys are power pitchers with profiles that can benefit from time in pitch lab.

I'm leery about these picks because I'm still a firm believer in TINSTAAPP, but I'm admittedly curious to see how everything plays out.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:35 pm

craig wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:....
2. Frisch but the Day 3 prep arms (Rujano, Wheat, Blatter), especially if they can sign 2/3 of them. I liked the day 3 prep arm strategy last year too, though they failed to sign the two best last year (Ziehl and Avitia). Hopefully this year, they only let 1 get away....


Rujano has apparently already committed to the Cubs.

Kantro said he expected 18 or 19 to sign. I'm guessing Blatter is the guy who won't sign, and will go to Alabama and the SEC instead. Why take a guy you don't expect to sign? Not sure. Back in the old days, they'd always draft a couple of guys who they couldn't afford. At least, they couldn't afford unless either the player changed his mind and agreed for less than expected; or unless an expensive guy failed his physical, freeing up dollars. I imagine the other possibility is that maybe a guy won't sign now because he wants to try JuCo next spring.

The latter might make sense for a kid like Blatter; is he so good that he'll actually get innings at Alabama? He might be better off to play a year in Juco, and reassess. Maybe take $125 or $200 from the Cubs and go pro? Maybe don't, but if you've been so great maybe go into the draft and go higher? Or maybe go to Alabama, but with the understanding that you'll get a lot of innings once in the SEC, rather than maybe going now as a freshman and getting only 9 innings all season?


Here’s the strategy behind taking top 5 round level prepsters on Day 3 (this is from last year’s draft so the pool space might be a bit different):
https://ivyfutures.com/2021/07/18/kept- ... antrovitz/

According to Kantrovitz, the Cubs planned to be creative in bringing in a player who they viewed as a top two-three round talent (effectively the caliber of player they would take if they had a competitive balance pick) by being in a position to offer one player slightly more than the $125k routinely offered on day three. “We aimed to finish day two, with roughly, $80[k]-$100k in surplus in our pool that would enable us to then fire off a bullet of roughly $200k for one player on day three,” Kantrovitz said. “We estimated that we could get a player that was a top, two-three round caliber player with that bullet.” If fans are concerned that statement suggests the Cubs will only sign one of the seven prep players on day three, Kantrovitz stated that there the Scouting Department had some good “intel” that there may be quality high school players available who would consider signing for the $125k. It appears that is coming to fruition.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Tryptamine » Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:36 pm

Outshined_One wrote:Having had some time to ruminate on the draft, my feeling on the draft is, I am disappointed that the Cubs took the approach they chose to take in passing over multiple seeming no-brainer guys in Lee/Parada/Collier and in going pitcher-heavy in a draft where there was apparent significant depth for position players. That was not the approach I wanted them to take.

However, what I will say in the Cubs' favor is they did just about as well as they could have in the approach they chose towards this draft. I have to rack my brain to come up with a list of more than a handful of quality power pitching prospects the Cubs have developed over the last 15 years who got to the majors and saw meaningful success over the course of multiple seasons (Samardzija, Marmol...and I guess arguments can be made for Archer and Cease?). This draft almost feels like a sea change in that regard. They definitely hit the proverbial nail on the head in that focus. From the sounds of things, most of these guys are power pitchers with profiles that can benefit from time in pitch lab.

I'm leery about these picks because I'm still a firm believer in TINSTAAPP, but I'm admittedly curious to see how everything plays out.


I'd agree with the first paragraph. It was not at all my preferred draft strategy. With that said, I do think they did quite well overall and added a lot of really intriguing guys. They chased after upside, which I'm always a fan of in the later rounds of the draft.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby sneakypower » Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:40 pm

Outshined_One wrote:Having had some time to ruminate on the draft, my feeling on the draft is, I am disappointed that the Cubs took the approach they chose to take in passing over multiple seeming no-brainer guys in Lee/Parada/Collier and in going pitcher-heavy in a draft where there was apparent significant depth for position players. That was not the approach I wanted them to take.

However, what I will say in the Cubs' favor is they did just about as well as they could have in the approach they chose towards this draft. I have to rack my brain to come up with a list of more than a handful of quality power pitching prospects the Cubs have developed over the last 15 years who got to the majors and saw meaningful success over the course of multiple seasons (Samardzija, Marmol...and I guess arguments can be made for Archer and Cease?). This draft almost feels like a sea change in that regard. They definitely hit the proverbial nail on the head in that focus. From the sounds of things, most of these guys are power pitchers with profiles that can benefit from time in pitch lab.

I'm leery about these picks because I'm still a firm believer in TINSTAAPP, but I'm admittedly curious to see how everything plays out.

yeah this is mostly where i'm at, taking 16?/20 pitchers makes it even more annoying for me that they targeted Horton so hard at the expense of safe, impact position players left available at 7

i guess the way that this all pays off is if we go completely nuts in spending on a top FA hitter or two with the budgetary gains of having an entirely home grown bullpen and similarly cheap in-house rotation, or develop so many of them well enough that we can get several trade bounties, but that all seems pretty far fetched given the org's spotty history in player dev
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Tryptamine » Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:43 pm

sneakypower wrote:
Outshined_One wrote:Having had some time to ruminate on the draft, my feeling on the draft is, I am disappointed that the Cubs took the approach they chose to take in passing over multiple seeming no-brainer guys in Lee/Parada/Collier and in going pitcher-heavy in a draft where there was apparent significant depth for position players. That was not the approach I wanted them to take.

However, what I will say in the Cubs' favor is they did just about as well as they could have in the approach they chose towards this draft. I have to rack my brain to come up with a list of more than a handful of quality power pitching prospects the Cubs have developed over the last 15 years who got to the majors and saw meaningful success over the course of multiple seasons (Samardzija, Marmol...and I guess arguments can be made for Archer and Cease?). This draft almost feels like a sea change in that regard. They definitely hit the proverbial nail on the head in that focus. From the sounds of things, most of these guys are power pitchers with profiles that can benefit from time in pitch lab.

I'm leery about these picks because I'm still a firm believer in TINSTAAPP, but I'm admittedly curious to see how everything plays out.

yeah this is mostly where i'm at, taking 16?/20 pitchers makes it even more annoying for me that they targeted Horton so hard at the expense of safe, impact position players left available at 7

i guess the way that this all pays off is if we go completely nuts in spending on a top FA hitter with the budgetary gains of having an entirely home grown bullpen and similarly cheap in-house rotation, or develop so many of them well enough that we can get trade bounties, but that all seems pretty far fetched given the org's spotty history in player dev


If they hadn't added Carter Hawkins as GM I'd hate adding all the pitching too, but given his history I'm kind of excited to see what he can do.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby Tim » Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:48 pm

Has anyone heard about UDFA signings? I'd guess that anything over $125k will have to wait until the drafted players sign, but there's no reason to wait on those if they're signing at $125k or under.
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Re: 2022 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

Postby sneakypower » Wed Jul 20, 2022 6:52 pm

Tryptamine wrote:If they hadn't added Carter Hawkins as GM I'd hate adding all the pitching too, but given his history I'm kind of excited to see what he can do.

even if you're ready to give him outsized credit in their overall P dev, mostly all their guys, Bieber/Plesac/Clevinger/Civale/Karinchak etc. were mid-late round finds- that should further remove the desperate need to expend such a heavy investment in the position, where you're still making a big reach with a top-10 pick against the universal consensus

this is likely to remain a bad offensive ballclub for a long while (like CLE), which i fundamentally hate, and that really puts all our eggs in the Craig Breslow basket to be strongly competitive
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