2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

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2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

Postby Derwood » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:18 pm

Let's get this a-rollin'

Last edited by Derwood on Wed Nov 23, 2022 9:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Banedon » Sun Oct 02, 2022 5:45 pm

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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby CubinNY » Thu Oct 06, 2022 1:03 pm

Mr. Christian, Mike Matheny was fired by the Royals. Another potential landing spot for the ex-Cubs named Joe.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 06, 2022 4:02 pm

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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Tue Oct 11, 2022 2:19 am

horsefeathering Braves lock up yet another young phenom, this time Strider signs a 7 year deal worth up to $92M. At some point they'll lose a year or two of that to injury, but he's worth the risk. That bat-missing skill is obviously elite.

Big fan of the way they operate in that FO.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Oct 11, 2022 2:41 am

CubinNY wrote:Mr. Christian, Mike Matheny was fired by the Royals. Another potential landing spot for the ex-Cubs named Joe.


Right staff, wrong coach…Venable
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Oct 11, 2022 3:15 am

*Gem* coming, good idea to skip…I’ll even be wise and spoiler…May we never speak of this:

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Just to get a little mail room Charlie…saw a tweet that Dansby Swanson’s dating Mallory Pugh, a player for the Chicago Red Stars in the NWSL (the highest level of US pro soccer)…There was talk of Laura Ricketts investing in Chicago’s WNBA team this summer, the Ricketts have soccer interests, and the Red Stars may soon a similar if not better opportunity…The tweet suggested something about the Ricketts seeking t
to reach a center-left audience…A big chunk of that sounds terrible but…yeah I’m a fan of signing Swanson and sometimes sees how politics are entertainment, entertainment is politics (Marvel Phase 4 and the often undemocratic public funding of pretty much all the modern and private stadiums)…This is even deeper: note how both have the facade of being for Everyone but not so many are walking away with the big, world shaping bucks
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:06 am

Since they did their end of season update, let's do a round of trades that pass the Baseball Trade Values simulator. This isn't a particular plan, and is meant to be taken more seriously than literally, but I think it's interesting nonetheless.

1. Velazquez for Marquez
2. Kilian + Sampson for Jansen
3. Assad for Kirilloff
4. Morel for Devers
5. Madrigal for Kaprielian
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Tim » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:17 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Since they did their end of season update, let's do a round of trades that pass the Baseball Trade Values simulator. This isn't a particular plan, and is meant to be taken more seriously than literally, but I think it's interesting nonetheless.

1. Velazquez for Marquez
2. Kilian + Sampson for Jansen
3. Assad for Kirilloff
4. Morel for Devers
5. Madrigal for Kaprielian

1. Yes, absolutely
2. Yes.
3. Nah, I don't have the interest in Kiriloff
4. Yes!
5. Nah, I'm not especially interested in Kaprielian

Crazy how much value prospects have relative to proven veterans.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:23 am

Tim wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Since they did their end of season update, let's do a round of trades that pass the Baseball Trade Values simulator. This isn't a particular plan, and is meant to be taken more seriously than literally, but I think it's interesting nonetheless.

1. Velazquez for Marquez
2. Kilian + Sampson for Jansen
3. Assad for Kirilloff
4. Morel for Devers
5. Madrigal for Kaprielian

1. Yes, absolutely
2. Yes.
3. Nah, I don't have the interest in Kiriloff
4. Yes!
5. Nah, I'm not especially interested in Kaprielian

Crazy how much value prospects have relative to proven veterans.


I was just about to say in what world is Morel an equivalent trade for Devers. I get that Devers only has 2 years of control left but he's been like a 4-5 win player and has been a fringe MVP candidate 2 of the last 3 seasons while Morel is a nice surprise and we're talking about him as a utility role player next year.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:26 am

UMFan83 wrote:
Tim wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Since they did their end of season update, let's do a round of trades that pass the Baseball Trade Values simulator. This isn't a particular plan, and is meant to be taken more seriously than literally, but I think it's interesting nonetheless.

1. Velazquez for Marquez
2. Kilian + Sampson for Jansen
3. Assad for Kirilloff
4. Morel for Devers
5. Madrigal for Kaprielian

1. Yes, absolutely
2. Yes.
3. Nah, I don't have the interest in Kiriloff
4. Yes!
5. Nah, I'm not especially interested in Kaprielian

Crazy how much value prospects have relative to proven veterans.


I was just about to say in what world is Morel an equivalent trade for Devers. I get that Devers only has 2 years of control left but he's been like a 4-5 win player and has been a fringe MVP candidate 2 of the last 3 seasons while Morel is a nice surprise and we're talking about him as a utility role player next year.


1 year of control for Devers.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:30 am

A guy I've started eying is Seth Brown with the A's. He's a pure platoon bat, and despite some solid athleticism a bit of a clod everywhere he plays defensively. But there's some very real power there and the cost should be minimal, probably a few of the 40 man fringe types.

Also I was very anti-Jansen at the deadline but I'm coming around on him. Something like Correa, Jansen, Brown, and Kevin Kiermaier would lead to a pretty killer lineup, and leave $30Mish to throw at the pitching staff.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Oct 12, 2022 3:53 am

The other thing that crossed my mind in watching some of these playoff games is seeing former top prospects come good with a second organization and/or after waiting them out through their struggles. Crawford and Rosario were the two that came to mind today. Made me wonder if there's some former Top 50 prospects who have lost enough shine to be available or even buy low.

Mitch Keller - probably was a little too good this year, but he was still only average and is an arb eligible Pirate with an excellent foundation for pitch labbery, maybe among the closest analogs to pre-Cubs Arrieta

Michael Kopech - doubt the Cubs could take advantage here for multiple reasons, but in terms of performance, pedigree, and service time this is about the ideal

Victor Robles - would hopefully carry minimal cost given his extended struggles and arb eligibility, but he's toolsy enough to be a Top 5 prospect, mostly fits a current need to improve CF defense, and as a result doesn't have to be an offensive stud to be a solid contributor

Royce Lewis - I don't think the Twins are quite fed up with him and his fit on the current roster is not super snug, but the Twins have position player excess and maybe they're souring on his ability to stay healthy

Mickey Moniak - got dealt at the deadline which hurts the odds he might shake loose again, but then again he was bad in his new destination and its the Angels. Less optimism about the bat being at all playable though

Nate Pearson - the rotation ship has probably sailed here, but there's still closer upside if the Jays are done waiting for his health and results to reflect it
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 4:07 am

Mitch Keller would be really interesting. There’s some things to be unlocked there potentially, I agree. And yeah Morel+ whatever not big prospects or even a Thompson type I’d be all in for Devers.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Oct 12, 2022 4:50 am

Carlos Estevez as a FA would be a fun/interesting bullpen add, get him out of Coors and see if there’s some lab stuff.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:45 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Since they did their end of season update, let's do a round of trades that pass the Baseball Trade Values simulator. This isn't a particular plan, and is meant to be taken more seriously than literally, but I think it's interesting nonetheless.

1. Velazquez for Marquez
2. Kilian + Sampson for Jansen
3. Assad for Kirilloff
4. Morel for Devers
5. Madrigal for Kaprielian


1 and 4 are absolute pipe dreams, pass on Jansen for that trade (why trade AAA SP depth when there’s like 4000 teen sensations and SIRP masquerading as SP floating around), same thinking as 2 for 3…5 eats into the position player depth for another SP/P. Madrigal is not ideal but doesn’t exactly seem like they upgrade anywhere w/ that one, but I do like the idea of Madrigal for pitching (the dream being w/ prospects for Ohtani). I’m terrified of that trade Value thing. Rebuild 3.0 in a handful
of years will be downright disastrous if a Future Devers or Marquez (developed by Cubs) is only Valued at Morel or Velazquez

——

Prbly there’s no real shot at Mitch Keller but yeah, he’d be a quality pickup. I’ll throw Leodys Taveras, Gerardo Perdomo, Will Benson/Nolan Jones, Staumont, Taylor Trammell, Vidal Brujan, Ian Anderson, and possibly others onto that list of post-hype prospects….BTW one thing for sure is no teen sensations w/ Cubs will end up like these schlubs
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:08 pm

Thinking through a full offseason, trying to keep Jed's comments from earlier in the week in mind, maybe something like this?

- Do TT's deals for Marquez ($15M) and Jansen ($3.7M)
- Trade with the A's for Seth Brown
- Sign Correa to something a bit higher AAV to avoid going 10 years ( 8/$280)
- Sign Brett Phillips (1/$2M)
- Re-sign Drew Smyly (2/14M)
- Sign Taylor Rogers (1/$10M)
- Sign Carlos Estevez (1/$5M)

Payroll is in the $215M-$220M range, so there should be room to extend Hoerner and leave room for deadline moves.

Lineup

RF - Suzuki
LF - Happ
DH - Brown
SS - Correa
3B - Wisdom
SS - Hoerner
1B - Mervis
C - Jansen
CF - Phillips

BN - Morel, Gomes, Madrigal, Mckinstry

This team is good defensively everywhere except maybe 3B and good offensively everywhere except definitely CF. People are going to hate Phillips, but he is a monster defender and actually a decent hitter against righties, so platoon him very strictly until Davis/Canario are up and push him to his rightful bench spot.

Pitching Staff

SP - Stro, Marquez, Steele, Smyly, Hendricks
CL - Rogers
SU - Estevez, Hughes
MR - Heuer, Wick, Leiter, Estrada (or other Iowa reliever du jour)
LR - Thompson, Alzolay

It lacks the true Ace or monster closer you like to have anchoring your staff, but this group of pitchers has a chance to be pretty sick. Hottovy needs to work his magic with the new guys, but Estevez was the 15th hardest throwing reliever in baseball this year (min 50 IP) and Marquez the 21st SP (min 100 IP), so it's no longer like we're asking him to spin straw into gold. Taylor Rogers had an ugly ERA but everything under the hood looks fine, to the point that I'm not sure even this fairly hefty 1 year salary will get him in the door. There's also quite a few quality arms at Iowa, so when some of these guys wash out we can "next man up" pretty well.

It wouldn't make the Dodgers nervous, but I think this squad compares favorably with any that played on Wildcard weekend. It does so without skimming too much talent out of the farm, and only adding one long term deal. So Jed's still in prime position to add more talent at the deadline and next winter.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Oct 13, 2022 2:42 pm

I dig it, I agree that fits pretty cleanly payroll wise, I've been thinking 15 million below the tax line after all the extras is a reasonable target, give or take a couple million. This is about 21 under by my count. Gives you room to do something mid-year or extend someone, and with Hendricks and Heyward falling off after 2023(plus any 1 year deals signed this offseason), you aren't painting yourself into a corner.

Main weakness I see is that the bullpen probably needs another external arm, you can consider Wesneski part of that group which helps, but with Wick's crap 2022, Heuer's post-surgery unknown, Rodriguez's velocity loss, etc, I'd feel better with another Givens/Martin. Thankfully those are cheap enough that you don't have to change anything else. Otherwise, trading for all of Marquez, Jansen, and Brown is probably a little on the high side for my tastes in terms of total talent outgoings, and while I like Phillips' profile he's riskier than others who you could technically afford(Kiermaier, maybe even Bellinger) without shaking up the rest of the moves.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 13, 2022 3:52 pm

Color me meh on that offseason. The Cubs finished 19th in OBP last year and the 1B/COF brought in had a .305 OBP (.306 against RHP), also acting as the major LHH add. Phillips has a .295 career OBP v RHP. Marquez is good but I don’t see the motivation for the Rockies nor the Cubs to pay a premium off a down year…Just seems like an offseason where they’ll really champion how much they spent on Correa but ran out of steam/horsefeathers after. W/ Brown you might as well save the prospects and let the Mets NT Smith (.308 career OBP but w/ two .350+ seasons), likely a better 1B defender anyway…Heck that the one long term deal is minimum 8/280 seems worth more of a conversation

Hell, I’m not particularly optimistic about Correa *choosing* to be a Cub when the other major moves beyond Marquez are dumping Contreras, trading for Seth Brown, and signing Brett Phillips to essentially be the starting CF going in…A Wisdom/Correa left side of the IF may not play out so well on defense


I do like the bullpen stuff…Estevez seems to be one guy we all agree on lol

———

Not putting this in the minors thread because it may lighthen the hearts of those less captivated by the prospect hype headed into the offseason:

https://theathletic.com/3685797/2022/10/13/cubs-prospects-offseason/

“The prospects are nice,” Ross said. “But they’re also prospects, right? Hopefully, all of them come up and are able to contribute and help us win a championship. But some of those guys get traded. Some of those guys don’t ever make it. That’s the reality of our sport.”
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Tim » Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:12 am

Mervis and Brown would hit 55 HR between them.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Tim » Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:12 am

That's assuming Brown is injured most of the year, of course.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Tim » Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:42 am

Bertz wrote:Thinking through a full offseason, trying to keep Jed's comments from earlier in the week in mind, maybe something like this?

- Do TT's deals for Marquez ($15M) and Jansen ($3.7M)
- Trade with the A's for Seth Brown
- Sign Correa to something a bit higher AAV to avoid going 10 years ( 8/$280)
- Sign Brett Phillips (1/$2M)
- Re-sign Drew Smyly (2/14M)
- Sign Taylor Rogers (1/$10M)
- Sign Carlos Estevez (1/$5M)

Payroll is in the $215M-$220M range, so there should be room to extend Hoerner and leave room for deadline moves.

If my #1 SP acquisition is Marquez, then I want someone better than Smyly as the #2. I'd love to find a way to afford Senga as another add in that situation.

I'm not wild about Seth Brown, but he's a guy that might be helped by the lack of shifting next year. I'd like to find a comparable FA option that I can get on a short-term contract.

For some reason, going big on Correa makes me nervous. I'm not sure why, though. I guess I feel like he's more a very good player than a real star. I think I might prefer to spread that money around a bit more rather than going long on any of the SS, but I waffle on that stance pretty much every day. Like the Correa + Smyly money could be Nimmo + Senga, but without the long-term commitment.

I'm not a fan of Phillips, but this is essentially a throw away move until a rookie can displace him. If Bellinger becomes available, he's he guy I want out there.

Reliever choices are fine, but could be others and I wouldn't mind. I trust the team here to make good choices.

So, maybe something like this:

- Do TT's deals for Marquez ($15M) and Jansen ($3.7M)
- Sign Jose Abreu to short term deal (2/$36M)
- Sign Nimmo (4/$100M)
- Sign Kodai Senga (4/$85M)
- Sign Carlos Estevez (1/$5M)
- Sign budget reliever (1/$2M)

That puts me about $10M over your salary, so I may be overshooting here. If there's an option in FA cheaper than Abreu, that would probably work. But I really like the lineup depth with those guys.

CF - Nimmo
RF - Suzuki
LF - Happ
DH - Abreu
1B - Mervis
3B - Wisdom
SS - Hoerner
C - Jansen
2B - Madrigal/Morel

There would be great depth in the SP, too:

SP - Stroman, Marquez, Steele, Kodai, Hendricks (Wesneski, Thompson, Sampson, Assad, etc.)
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Bertz » Fri Oct 14, 2022 3:04 pm

Tim wrote:For some reason, going big on Correa makes me nervous. I'm not sure why, though. I guess I feel like he's more a very good player than a real star. I think I might prefer to spread that money around a bit more rather than going long on any of the SS, but I waffle on that stance pretty much every day. Like the Correa + Smyly money could be Nimmo + Senga, but without the long-term commitment.


I think this is the big inflection point on gaming out potential offseasons. We're assuming there's 80-something million to spend and the team doesn't want to go hog wild on dumping prospects. So there's enough resources to do anything you want, but not everything you want.

Correa or one of the other shortstops use up enough resources right off the bat that you are essentially forced to skimp elsewhere. I chose to skimp in CF and SP. CF is an easy choice IMO, as the over/under on Davis or Canario being ready is something like May 15th. SP was a bit tougher, my preferred "other" SP is actually Andrew Heaney, but I wasn't able to fit him into this scenario.

If you pass on the shortstops though, as you showed you can go pretty much hog wild filling the rest of the holes on the roster. I still think grabbing a star SS to anchor the lineup is the right call, but it's easy to see the benefits of skipping there. It kind of sucks Dansby Swanson had such an amazing year. He'd probably be looking at 5/$90 or something coming off a normal year, but now the SS market is Jose Iglesias and four guys who will each get at least $150M. No mid range options at all.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby Tim » Fri Oct 14, 2022 3:17 pm

Bertz wrote:
Tim wrote:For some reason, going big on Correa makes me nervous. I'm not sure why, though. I guess I feel like he's more a very good player than a real star. I think I might prefer to spread that money around a bit more rather than going long on any of the SS, but I waffle on that stance pretty much every day. Like the Correa + Smyly money could be Nimmo + Senga, but without the long-term commitment.


I think this is the big inflection point on gaming out potential offseasons. We're assuming there's 80-something million to spend and the team doesn't want to go hog wild on dumping prospects. So there's enough resources to do anything you want, but not everything you want.

Correa or one of the other shortstops use up enough resources right off the bat that you are essentially forced to skimp elsewhere. I chose to skimp in CF and SP. CF is an easy choice IMO, as the over/under on Davis or Canario being ready is something like May 15th. SP was a bit tougher, my preferred "other" SP is actually Andrew Heaney, but I wasn't able to fit him into this scenario.

If you pass on the shortstops though, as you showed you can go pretty much hog wild filling the rest of the holes on the roster. I still think grabbing a star SS to anchor the lineup is the right call, but it's easy to see the benefits of skipping there. It kind of sucks Dansby Swanson had such an amazing year. He'd probably be looking at 5/$90 or something coming off a normal year, but now the SS market is Jose Iglesias and four guys who will each get at least $150M. No mid range options at all.

On the OF, I've decided that I'm not too worried about prospect readiness. There will be injuries. Happ's only here for one more year. We can rotate guys to keep them fresh. There's the DH spot that can be used with off days for Abreu or Mervis. We can trade guys, too, if the backlog becomes too severe.

I'd love it if one of those guys developed a sudden ability to play 2B or 3B, though.
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Re: 2022-23 Offseason Thread

Postby UMFan83 » Fri Oct 14, 2022 3:18 pm

This is almost certainly a whole bunch of nothing but



The Dodgers and Cubs both prefer shorter term high AAV contacts and I have a feeling that's not what Judge wants.
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