2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Post Count Padder]

I had been thinking up some kind of

Madrigal, Rivas, ManRod, Rucker, Riley Thompson/insert favorite tradeable prospect to the As for Seth Brown and Aj Puk but idk how much it makes sense or if the A's would even be interested. Seems like it would give them depth and their recent trades have seen them targeting quantity over quality.

[TomtheBombadil]

Agreed w/ muntjack that some kind of significant trade seems likely with so much offseason left

----

The Borucki signing has some meat to it. He averaged 95 on his sinker last year with solid whiffs on his changeup and slider...Was a half decent SP prospect through age 23, only converted to relief in 2018...Might be something of a VAA guy...Basically an upgrade on Uelmen plus doesn't take a roster spot...FanGraphs has him at 61% and 49% GBs the past two years, either much better than league average:



---

Hosmer's got EVs and abv avg hard hit% with lots of contact on offense I'm pretty soft on even potential two way 1B and players with so much competitive experience, but that 57% GB rate on offense is maddening

[Bertz]

If there was a way to wager on the Cubs making a substantial trade soon, I would.

IMO it's hard to see post Smyly and Hosmer. Like TT said there's definitely some cleanup at the tail end of the roster that needs to happen, but that probably looks like Madrigal or Velazquez traded for their weight in relief help. YMMV on whether that would qualify as substantial.

To me, there were two exceptions to this where I could see something happening. First was Rafael Devers, but it looks like that window just closed.

The other is a third SP addition to replace of Hendricks. The team has been fairly cagey about him all winter. The last thing we heard was that they were going to Driveline him, and that program was slated to start in early December. Well it's been a month, and still most discussion around Kyle still sounds very wishy washy and aspirational ("if he's healthy..."). IMO that's kind of weird, as if healthy the dude clearly gets first crack at a rotation slot coming out of spring training, and if he's been back on the mound for a month the team should have a pretty good idea if he's healthy. So if you told me that Kyle got hurt again on the hush hush and Smyly was signed as a fifth starter, I'd absolutely believe you. And SP is probably the one position you could still go hard on the trade market.

[TomtheBombadil]

I've got some kind of shinning for Hoyer moves, see a second strong MiLB signing in a row by bringing in Dom Nunez. Nunez popped on radar this offseason when the Giants picked him up from the Rockies, my dumb brain saw it as an endorsement of sorts from a similar minded org. At the same time, I was pretty big on Austin Hedges as the third catcher (in a much cooler offseason than we got, but at least there's Swanson and Taillon), which this move essentially accomplishes without using a 40 spot. He's a big defensive upgrade over Higgins as a 3rd catching option and hits a ton of flyballs but not hard or barrelled - all things Hedges would do. Fantastic value, both of these signings, and this is regardless of outcome since the bar for MiLB deals is much lower than a lefty with sometimes average stuff in a ML pen and a low end MLB backup catcher

[Bertz]

There is probably more veteran RHH bat incoming to round out the roster. It's possible the team simply goes with Madrigal or Velazquez instead of a vet, but seems more likely they open next year out of the org and at Iowa respectively. Trey Mancini has been talked about extensively all offseason, so he's probably the smart money, but here's a few other potential options that are at least somewhat interesting:

Adam Duvall
Cons - Clearly the worst bat on this list due to major contact issues. And it's not even clear he can serve as a platoon guy. He's generally mashed lefties, but in his career year in '21 (where he got by far his most playing time ever) he had very stark reverse splits, so you can't even totally count on him for platoon duty
Pros - A very good defender, so much so that it's not crazy that he could be an everyday guy and push Bellinger to 1B (or the bench if he's struggling). The weirdness I laid out with his splits is probably a one year anomally

Tommy Pham
Cons - He essentially hasn't produced since COVID, despite plenty of opportunity. Even though there's quite a bit to really like under the hood, he's passed through three different orgs since he was last productive. So how likely is it to actually get him back on track? With the Joc Pederson thing and the stabbing, it's not totally clear if he's a bad dude or simply a redass
Pros - He's still very patient, relatively fast, and hits the piss out of the ball. Statcast thinks he was a top ~50 hitter in baseball in '20 and '21. It feels like whatever adjustment(s) are required to be that guy he was in 2018/2019 are pretty minor, despite them not having been made yet. Even when struggling he's generally been a strong platoon bat (115 wRC+ vs lefties last year)

Andrew McCutchen
Cons - Similar to Pham in that Statcast paints a picture that his productivity simply does not back up. He hasn't had a good full season since leaving Pittsburgh
Pros - Statcast thinks he's still been a very good hitter in Philly and Milwaukee. There's an argument he's part of the shortlist of RHH who potentially stand to gain significantly from the shift ban, which might be the explanation for the Statcast/real world disagreement? Also like Pham, either way he's still mashed lefties the last several years so he's rosterable even in the worst of scenarios. Unlike Pham, he's an all-time likable dude

Gary Sanchez
Cons - After his early career highs, the last several years his offense has generally been good *for a catcher* rather than actually good. He drastically underperforms his Statcast numbers every single year, but it's not totally clear you can blame the shift. He's a poor defensive catcher, but not necessarily so poor that he'd definitely be willing to shift to primary 1b/DH duty. Reverse splits 2 of last 3 years means he's not a definite offensive fit with Mervis/Hosmer/etc.
Pros - He hits the ball hard at an elite level, and he has a good eye as well. We just saw with Willson how much gain you can realize from an offense-first catcher when dialing way back on that wear and tear from behind the plate. Ross has generally really enjoyed the strategic options opened up by having three catchers on the roster

AJ Pollock and Luke Voit might also be theoretically possible, but Pollock seems likely to be too expensive (I'd imagine he's still in line for a multi-year deal?) and Luke Voit has reverse splits which don’t really jive with what the Cubs need.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

AJ Pollock and Luke Voit might also be theoretically possible, but Pollock seems likely to be too expensive (I'd imagine he's still in line for a multi-year deal?) and Luke Voit has reverse splits which don’t really jive with what the Cubs need.

Pollock is intriguing, he was pretty poor for someone with his workload last year, but got better as the season went on, and for this roster spot would be a nice addition given his track record and skill set. Kinda wonder if he has an inflated sense of his value that he's still unsigned though, by turning down his player option he essentially bet that he'd do better than 1/8 in FA, and I'm not sure where that would be coming from at this point.

[Cubswin11]

Agree we need to add some sort of RHH, preferably someone who can plan some 3B. Brian Anderson as a FA maybe?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Agree we need to add some sort of RHH, preferably someone who can plan some 3B. Brian Anderson as a FA maybe?

Are there meaningful at bats at 3B to be had for a bench bat? Morel, Wisdom, and probably one of McKinstry/Mastrobuoni will be on the roster, Mervis & Hosmer are going to get meaningful 1B/DH at bats, and that addition regardless of position will suck up further DH opportunities. You can make a similar point for other positions too, so my point is really I don't think it matters much what the bat can do positionally, though if anything I'd lean towards it needing to be an OF.

[Cubswin11]

Agree we need to add some sort of RHH, preferably someone who can plan some 3B. Brian Anderson as a FA maybe?

Are there meaningful at bats at 3B to be had for a bench bat? Morel, Wisdom, and probably one of McKinstry/Mastrobuoni will be on the roster, Mervis & Hosmer are going to get meaningful 1B/DH at bats, and that addition regardless of position will suck up further DH opportunities. You can make a similar point for other positions too, so my point is really I don't think it matters much what the bat can do positionally, though if anything I'd lean towards it needing to be an OF.

I think 3B could be a severe problem. Wisdom might suck, Morel is an unknown and may suck and also is probably better used as a roving utility guy, the LHH options are fine but also may need to be used elsewhere. Anderson also can play OF, I just want a little more backfill at 3B.

The best option, obviously, is to just suck it up and sign Correa for 3B. Then all of Wisdom, Morel, Madrigal, LHH options, Velazquez come become true utility/bench guys and have options and you have a fairly deep roster.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Another factor here could be if they feel that Wisdom's usefulness has mostly run its course and they don't want to count on him making the roster

[UMFan83]

This is quoted from a tweet from someone who protects their tweets so I can’t link it directly

Jared Banner just said on 670 he’s impressed at Cubs fans on twitter. Said sometimes he sees tweets that go along with the front offices thinking, and even sometimes we present them with new ideas. Good work ladies and gents. We did it

Not sure how I feel about the FO sourcing ideas from Twitter

[TomtheBombadil]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/m ... 008222002/

– The Marlins are letting teams know that starters Pablo Lopez, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera are all available.

Luzardo + Wendle please

[Gilby]

I mentioned this a few weeks ago but I would be legitimately interested in Ha Seong Kim. The Pads supposedly want pitching depth, which we have, and Madrigal (or Mastrobuoni I guess) could slide in as his replacement at 2B. Plus it would give them a little more breathing room under the 3rd luxury tax tier.

Kim obviously isn't a big bat but was still above average last year and always a wizard with the glove. And if you're into low GB% he has that too. If we're doing the run prevention thing, I am concerned about our current 3B situation. Wisdom was good in 21 and Morel has all the tools but man they were both really shaky there last season.

[Bertz]

I mentioned this a few weeks ago but I would be legitimately interested in Ha Seong Kim. The Pads supposedly want pitching depth, which we have, and Madrigal (or Mastrobuoni I guess) could slide in as his replacement at 2B. Plus it would give them a little more breathing room under the 3rd luxury tax tier.

Kim obviously isn't a big bat but was still above average last year and always a wizard with the glove. And if you're into low GB% he has that too. If we're doing the run prevention thing, I am concerned about our current 3B situation. Wisdom was good in 21 and Morel has all the tools but man they were both really shaky there last season.

They probably wouldn't have need for Madrigal. I think part of the impotice for making the trade would be getting Cronenworth back over to 2B. That said it's an interesting idea, Kim would give us an insane infield defense and like you said another heavy flyball guy. Though I don't love his bat in general.

I'd love to know what the team thinks about the internal 3B options defensively. Wisdom was very good there in '21 and really bad in '22. Morel was really bad in very limited play time in '22 but had a very strong reputation coming up through the minors. Mckinstry was fine there last year, but considering his work elsewhere would he be good with more playing time? If you told me any or all of these guys were somewhere between +5 and +10 defensively as a full time 3B I'd believe you. They all have questions offensively too, but they're small enough you'd be comfortable with some insurances they're a plus defender.

Kind if like CF, 3B probably ends up being in a pretty good spot by the end of this season. But it's hard to say who ultimately gets the lions share of the playing time, and how much damage is done to the team's chances while it gets sorted out.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah I absolutely understand the wariness around 3B, but it's also a spot where there's no less than 4 internal options(Morel, Wisdom, McKinstry, Mastrobuoni), all of which are at least okay defenders and 2 each that are RH/LH that can make for a functional platoon. It may take some time to get it just right, but I also think last year they showed a willingness to act quickly enough with poor performers(Heyward, Villar, Simmons) that I think they'll be able to avoid it being a black hole.

I'll also say that I can marshal enough optimism for McKinstry and Mastrobuoni in particular that I'm not all that enthused about adding someone like Wendle to the mix, as I'm not sure there's a material difference. For example, look at what someone like Brendan Donovan did last year and compare his building blocks to Mastrobuoni.

[TomtheBombadil]

^^ Yeah, good call on Wendle...Tbh I forget the LHH options exist already...Tanner Scott then, please

Agree on the Cubs being able to cobble something together at 3B in 2023. Kim's a good player but I'd pass on trading for him + moving him to 3B, don't even really think the Padres should trade him

[Bertz]

With the Twins adding Correa, the Cubs should call them about Alex Kiriloff or Matt Wallner. It would be nice to have someone at Iowa breathing down the necks of Mervis and Hosmer for LHH 1B/DH at bats.

[TomtheBombadil]

^ Larnach…I like Wallner too, but I prefer Larnach’s periphs

[Bertz]

This isn't a bad idea either. .296/.356/.523 against lefties over the last three years. Makes a ton of sense in particular if you're bearish on Wisdom's ability to play 3B.

[CubinNY]

https://twitter.com/IvyFutures/status/1612893265724051456?t=uSczzeYo4OfT5lDNTSaSYg&s=19

This isn't a bad idea either. .296/.356/.523 against lefties over the last three years. Makes a ton of sense in particular if you're bearish on Wisdom's ability to play 3B.

He plays really good defense too, correct?

[Bertz]

https://twitter.com/IvyFutures/status/1612893265724051456?t=uSczzeYo4OfT5lDNTSaSYg&s=19

This isn't a bad idea either. .296/.356/.523 against lefties over the last three years. Makes a ton of sense in particular if you're bearish on Wisdom's ability to play 3B.

He plays really good defense too, correct?

Probabiy? He mostly plays shortstop, and is just okay there. But the little bit of 3B he's played the numbers have been good and generally you'd expect even a below average SS to be good at 3B.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Feels like we're starting to out-think ourselves a bit. The team has had the whole offseason to hedge against Morel not being able to hit LHP last year(which will continue past his first 100 MLB PA despite normal to heavy MiLB platoon splits because reasons?) or Wisdom having an outlier negative RAA at 3B despite marginally different UZR, and they've been connected to basically zero players at the position. Even the bat first guys have been Abreu, Mancini, Hosmer, Smith, not a 3B in the bunch. Farmer is a clear upgrade to the existing 3B on one axis, and that's making contact. Aside from that it's questionable at best he's a better defender(-3 at SS last year, 65 MLB games at 3B, older than Wisdom) or at hitting LHP(career marks similar to Wisdom, and again Morel should hit them hard).

[Post Count Padder]

Brian Anderson is still a free agent. One year deal and plug him in at third and make Wisdom the DH? Not the sexiest move but improves defense and he was a good hitter pretty recently.

[Bertz]

Feels like we're starting to out-think ourselves a bit. The team has had the whole offseason to hedge against Morel not being able to hit LHP last year(which will continue past his first 100 MLB PA despite normal to heavy MiLB platoon splits because reasons?) or Wisdom having an outlier negative RAA at 3B despite marginally different UZR, and they've been connected to basically zero players at the position. Even the bat first guys have been Abreu, Mancini, Hosmer, Smith, not a 3B in the bunch. Farmer is a clear upgrade to the existing 3B on one axis, and that's making contact. Aside from that it's questionable at best he's a better defender(-3 at SS last year, 65 MLB games at 3B, older than Wisdom) or at hitting LHP(career marks similar to Wisdom, and again Morel should hit them hard).

For me I think the clear top priority for that last bench spot is mashing lefties. From there it's basically a choice of whether you want someone who can hold their own against righties too (someone like McCutchen) or someone who provides defensive value (e.g. Farmer or Adam Duvall). I lean toward the latter.

I'm with you in not being especially worried about Morel's splits though. His peripherals were better against lefties than righties, so last year was likely a batted ball fluke. But as much as I'm a huge fan of Morel, he is a source of some elevated risk in the lineup. And even if he does produce, it'd be nice to have the freedom to move him around as needed and backfill him at 3B with a Mckinstry/Farmer platoon.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

For me I think the clear top priority for that last bench spot is mashing lefties. From there it's basically a choice of whether you want someone who can hold their own against righties too (someone like McCutchen) or someone who provides defensive value (e.g. Farmer or Adam Duvall). I lean toward the latter.

Even if it is the latter, I just don't see this clear distinction between Farmer and Wisdom defensively that make it worth the resources to bring in Farmer. And more importantly, there's no indication the FO shares the view that Farmer or someone like him is missing from the position player pool. Case in point, that choice above could even be extended to say, Velazquez instead of Wisdom and be more useful to the shape of the roster than a 2nd or 3rd RHH 3B.