2022 In Season Thread

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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby squally1313 » Thu Jun 02, 2022 1:54 pm

Gilby wrote:So, with an extension seemingly not happening, what are we looking at for a potential Contreras trade return? Even if teams don't need a new everyday catcher, dude's putting up great numbers even for a DH


Houston's catchers are currently putting up a 124/214/211 slash line.
Padres are 238/291/322.
Doubt the Sox would be an option with Grandal and also just being the Sox, but currently getting 176/261/229 from that spot.
Tampa is at 188/211/339.
Mets are 222/257/304
Even someone like the Yankees, 10th in fWAR from that position, are slashing 217/267/316

This is all compared to Willy's 277/395/514 so far. Yes, his defense is suspect, to put it lightly, but he's basically doubling the production of all those teams with playoff aspirations right now. Factor in his clubhouse attributes, postseason experience, etc....someone is going to want him to be their starter down the stretch. With Higgins not falling on his face and Gomes still around somewhere (I think?) definitely think they should keep limiting his innings behind the plate (15th in baseball so far in innings caught) to avoid a major slump.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby CubinNY » Thu Jun 02, 2022 3:14 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Gilby wrote:So, with an extension seemingly not happening, what are we looking at for a potential Contreras trade return? Even if teams don't need a new everyday catcher, dude's putting up great numbers even for a DH


Houston's catchers are currently putting up a 124/214/211 slash line.
Padres are 238/291/322.
Doubt the Sox would be an option with Grandal and also just being the Sox, but currently getting 176/261/229 from that spot.
Tampa is at 188/211/339.
Mets are 222/257/304
Even someone like the Yankees, 10th in fWAR from that position, are slashing 217/267/316

This is all compared to Willy's 277/395/514 so far. Yes, his defense is suspect, to put it lightly, but he's basically doubling the production of all those teams with playoff aspirations right now. Factor in his clubhouse attributes, postseason experience, etc....someone is going to want him to be their starter down the stretch. With Higgins not falling on his face and Gomes still around somewhere (I think?) definitely think they should keep limiting his innings behind the plate (15th in baseball so far in innings caught) to avoid a major slump.

I don't know how anyone can watch Willson and say his defense is suspect.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Jun 02, 2022 4:01 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Gilby wrote:So, with an extension seemingly not happening, what are we looking at for a potential Contreras trade return? Even if teams don't need a new everyday catcher, dude's putting up great numbers even for a DH


Houston's catchers are currently putting up a 124/214/211 slash line.
Padres are 238/291/322.
Doubt the Sox would be an option with Grandal and also just being the Sox, but currently getting 176/261/229 from that spot.
Tampa is at 188/211/339.
Mets are 222/257/304
Even someone like the Yankees, 10th in fWAR from that position, are slashing 217/267/316

This is all compared to Willy's 277/395/514 so far. Yes, his defense is suspect, to put it lightly, but he's basically doubling the production of all those teams with playoff aspirations right now. Factor in his clubhouse attributes, postseason experience, etc....someone is going to want him to be their starter down the stretch. With Higgins not falling on his face and Gomes still around somewhere (I think?) definitely think they should keep limiting his innings behind the plate (15th in baseball so far in innings caught) to avoid a major slump.


Yeah catching is bleak this year. I'd add the Angels and a reunion with Joe Maddon to the list too.

Teams don't love trading for catchers mid-season, but I think given the above they'll get over it. If Willson continues what he's been doing, I'd think he'll bring back a little more than what the core guys brought back last year. Maybe even a lot more, since most of the good players in their walk years are already on contenders. I might be missing a name or two, but for obvious rental bats it looks like you've got Contreras, Mitch Haniger, Josh Bell, and a bunch of horsefeathers.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Jun 02, 2022 4:23 pm

I really don't want this to be a thing that we figure out with Contreras, but I'm curious what the expanded postseason does to the in-season trade market. There's like maybe 5 teams who need more than an above average 2 weeks to stay within touching distance of the playoffs, which might limit suitors. I don't know if it'll increase buyers because the payoff isn't as great, but it might inch up prices for the best trade targets because those top teams still want the upgrade and there's likely to be fewer of them available.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby CubinNY » Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:03 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I really don't want this to be a thing that we figure out with Contreras, but I'm curious what the expanded postseason does to the in-season trade market. There's like maybe 5 teams who need more than an above average 2 weeks to stay within touching distance of the playoffs, which might limit suitors. I don't know if it'll increase buyers because the payoff isn't as great, but it might inch up prices for the best trade targets because those top teams still want the upgrade and there's likely to be fewer of them available.


I really wonder what the Cubs are looking for and that will be the deciding factor. But when they do trade him, they will have a huge hole at the position. The Mets, Blue Jays, and Padres have pretty good catchers in the minors. Maybe the Cubs will be looking to replace Wilson.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Jun 02, 2022 11:32 pm

What’s Amaya’s expected return date from TJS? I think I saw he’s at least hitting now. That injury really horsefeathers up the long term catching outlook and Willy trade calculus.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby squally1313 » Fri Jun 03, 2022 3:00 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:What’s Amaya’s expected return date from TJS? I think I saw he’s at least hitting now. That injury really horsefeathers up the long term catching outlook and Willy trade calculus.

Eh, Gomes and Higgins gets you through this (lost) year...Gomes is a pretty safe bet to put up mediocre production next year if nothing else falls into your lap, so that gives you almost two years to sort it out. It's been a relative luxury having him, but a lot of contenders just plug in veterans at that spot.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby CubinNY » Fri Jun 03, 2022 3:53 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:What’s Amaya’s expected return date from TJS? I think I saw he’s at least hitting now. That injury really horsefeathers up the long term catching outlook and Willy trade calculus.

Eh, Gomes and Higgins gets you through this (lost) year...Gomes is a pretty safe bet to put up mediocre production next year if nothing else falls into your lap, so that gives you almost two years to sort it out. It's been a relative luxury having him, but a lot of contenders just plug in veterans at that spot.

lol
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby Bertz » Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:21 pm

Juggling him and Frazier as guys you really don't want in the field would be tough, but I'd much rather have Calhoun than Heyward or Rivas on the current roster.

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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:36 pm

Bertz wrote:Juggling him and Frazier as guys you really don't want in the field would be tough, but I'd much rather have Calhoun than Heyward or Rivas on the current roster.



I just don't really see a ton of upside with Calhoun, his problem has always been more approach than mechanical and he hasn't had the performance or scouting highs that Frazier has had to dream on.

Also, you've got Suzuki, Villar, Bote, and Hermosillo who are gonna be coming for a roster spot within a couple weeks, so you don't need an external option to satisfy a desire to punt Heyward and Rivas
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby Bertz » Sun Jun 05, 2022 9:02 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Bertz wrote:Juggling him and Frazier as guys you really don't want in the field would be tough, but I'd much rather have Calhoun than Heyward or Rivas on the current roster.



I just don't really see a ton of upside with Calhoun, his problem has always been more approach than mechanical and he hasn't had the performance or scouting highs that Frazier has had to dream on.

Also, you've got Suzuki, Villar, Bote, and Hermosillo who are gonna be coming for a roster spot within a couple weeks, so you don't need an external option to satisfy a desire to punt Heyward and Rivas


SSS, but his peripherals are really good this year. More BBs than Ks and an xwOBA of .350. Like Frazier he probably ends up at replacement level through a combo of slightly above average offense and abysmal defense, but I'd rather roll the dice with that than many of the guys we have in house, particularly given the dearth of LHH bats we have in the majors and high minors. I easily take him over those latter three names you listed. Plus it looks like he has an MiLB option, so if you'd like you could stash him at Iowa until Willson's gone and those DH at bats open up.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby CubinNY » Fri Jun 10, 2022 4:57 pm

The Yankees released Shelby Miller.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:23 am

https://www.si.com/mlb/yankees/news/cou ... lb-insider

I'm not against taking on Hicks's deal, 3/$30 after this year, for prospects (Trey Sweeney?) and/or renting Gallo this deadline. Also think Gallo's a FA they should go after next offseason
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby d_money » Sun Jun 12, 2022 3:34 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:https://www.si.com/mlb/yankees/news/could-new-york-yankees-trade-aaron-hicks-joey-gallo-trade-deadline-mlb-insider

I'm not against taking on Hicks's deal, 3/$30 after this year, for prospects (Trey Sweeney?) and/or renting Gallo this deadline. Also think Gallo's a FA they should go after next offseason

Picking up Hicks for his 33-35 age seasons is not all that exciting for that contract
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby CubinNY » Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:41 pm

Cubs DFA Newcomb and call up Stout (?)
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby Bertz » Mon Jun 13, 2022 10:40 pm

CubinNY wrote:Cubs DFA Newcomb and call up Stout (?)


Like Menez a month back presumably a guy they can get 2-3 innings out of if a starter goes short again in the next few days and then DFA without worry.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:26 am

Genuinely don't understand what is going on with this 40 man management. I get that Newcomb hasn't shown anything, and that you're on day 4 of 18 straight, but DFA'ing him so quickly after you sent Chavez for him is confusing. Plus Norris and Hughes are on the roster, there's no pressing need for a third lefty, and Leiter is right there if you want length and are worried about Newcomb being down for a few days.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby Bertz » Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:01 pm

I mentioned this a while back in the minor league forum, but I think 40 Man roster considerations are going to have a significant impact on the next six months of transactions.  There are so many prospects eligible for the upcoming Rule 5 draft that even with all of the dead weight on the roster there's a pretty significant crunch coming up.

Right now, the 40 man roster is obviously at 40 names.  With 6 guys on the sixty day IL, and 9 impending FAs, that means the roster will be at 37 at the start of the offseason barring any trades or cuts.

From there, 4 prospects absolutely have to be added to the roster: Brennen Davis, Bryce Ball, Kevin Alcantara, and Yohendrick Pinango.  Another 6 probably should be added: Chris Clarke, Cam Sanders, Ryan Jensen, Riley Thompson, Bryan Hudson, Kohl Franklin.  On top of that I count another 8 names that you probably wouldn't add today, but have a pretty reasonable path to getting there over the next three months: Darius Hill, Cayne Ueckert, Chase Strumpf, Cole Roederer, Eury Ramos, Brendon Little, Yonathan Perlaza, and Danis Correa.

That's 55 (!!) names you could reasonably argue onto the 40 man roster.  That's before any trade deadline acquisitions, and precludes any free agent signings.  Several of those names, particularly from the last group, are going to wash out over the next three months. But even still we're likely to need to free up 8-10 roster spots.

The good news, well not really it's why the team sucks, is that there's a lot of dead weight on the roster.  I can see 12 potential/likely cuts: Leiter, Swarmer, Rivas, Hermosillo, Heyward, Schwindel, Rucker, Stout, Higgins, Wieck, Mills, and Bote. I'd probably dump all 12 today, though odds are a few play themselves back into being worthwhile components to a roster.

Given all of the above and knowing that the trade deadline is fast approaching, there's two things I'd like to see the Jed do:

1. Eschew quantity and focus on highest possible impact pieces attainable.  The most obvious way of going about this is packaging guys together.  Like if the Mets would trade their #3 and #7 prospects for Contreras and Robertson respectively, could you get #1 or #2 for both together? Alternatively, Jed should throw in prospects relevant to the 40 man crunch (e.g. Anderson Espinoza) along with the rentals to increase the return
2. Make an actual buy move this deadline.  My thought is a pre-FA SP, but it doesn't particularly matter the what.  While obviously the hope is it improves the competitive outlook, the immediate-term goal is to in essence trade four quarters for a dollar bill to abate the roster crunch. The org has a lot of outfielders and a lot of quality pitchers (though they certainly over-index in multi-inning relief), let's use some of that surplus

Jed did #1 to a tee with Javy last year, so while I'd prefer some nearer term impact it does seem to be something the FO is comfortable with. I'm hoping they make an attempt at #2, rather than just doing a couple of small deck-clearing moves in late November like the Rays and Guardians tend to do in this situation.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:22 pm

Bertz wrote:2. Make an actual buy move this deadline.  My thought is a pre-FA SP, but it doesn't particularly matter the what.  While obviously the hope is it improves the competitive outlook, the immediate-term goal is to in essence trade four quarters for a dollar bill to abate the roster crunch. The org has a lot of outfielders and a lot of quality pitchers (though they certainly over-index in multi-inning relief), let's use some of that surplus


I think the Madrigal trade, regardless of what you think of him as a player, is a useful template in this vein. Find the worthwhile target that's hurt on a competitor and you can use both MLB pieces and some of the Rule 5 crunch guys to achieve that end.


Also, while I like the wholly inclusive look at the candidates involved, I think there's a fair number of potential guys that can be left exposed without a ton of risk. Clarke, Thompson, basically everyone in that last MLB list save for maybe Hill or Little, it's all players who have swingman/middle relief or platoon upside if things break right. So while it's worth the thought to maximize your assets, in deadline deals it's a tiebreak consideration compared to getting the return you most believe in.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby NewUserName » Wed Jun 15, 2022 10:30 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Bertz wrote:2. Make an actual buy move this deadline.  My thought is a pre-FA SP, but it doesn't particularly matter the what.  While obviously the hope is it improves the competitive outlook, the immediate-term goal is to in essence trade four quarters for a dollar bill to abate the roster crunch. The org has a lot of outfielders and a lot of quality pitchers (though they certainly over-index in multi-inning relief), let's use some of that surplus


I think the Madrigal trade, regardless of what you think of him as a player, is a useful template in this vein. Find the worthwhile target that's hurt on a competitor and you can use both MLB pieces and some of the Rule 5 crunch guys to achieve that end.


Also, while I like the wholly inclusive look at the candidates involved, I think there's a fair number of potential guys that can be left exposed without a ton of risk. Clarke, Thompson, basically everyone in that last MLB list save for maybe Hill or Little, it's all players who have swingman/middle relief or platoon upside if things break right. So while it's worth the thought to maximize your assets, in deadline deals it's a tiebreak consideration compared to getting the return you most believe in.


I have always wondered why some teams aren't buyers even if they are not competing that season. It seems like a waste of an opportunity to improve your team if the right players are available. I am pretty sure the Cardinals picked up Scott Rolen at the deadline in a season that they were not competitve
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Jun 16, 2022 12:26 am

NewUserName wrote:I have always wondered why some teams aren't buyers even if they are not competing that season. It seems like a waste of an opportunity to improve your team if the right players are available. I am pretty sure the Cardinals picked up Scott Rolen at the deadline in a season that they were not competitve


Agreed. Like I get the math of paying for an extra half-season costs resources you don't need to burn, but why aren't there more deals for guys with 2+ years of control where that half season isn't super meaningful.

I'm kind of eying the Royals SPs. They as an org appear to not be one of the ones who "get" pitching in 2022. But they've got a bunch of guys who have pretty strong pedigrees and fairly mediocre to bad early results. Now their Statcast numbers aren't amazing either, so it's not as much of a slam dunk as like when the Kevin Gausman got traded, but feels like there's some low-hanging fruit for a Tommy Hottovy to work with. Get a guy in, spend a half season getting him acclimated, and hopefully he hits the ground running next April.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Jun 16, 2022 12:32 am

^^ I too am eyeing Royals SPs..namely Brady Singer...He fits the org's overall philosophy for command guys who manage contact, has good velocity, couldn't get ramped up this year...Bubic too

Also to touch on the 40 thing: Definitely think they buy at the deadline and move a famed prospect just to consolidate a little but also think the vast majority of those MiLBers aren't 40 guys anyway. Davis, maybe Sanders, Jensen, Alcantara if not traded between now and the 40 date...Ball and Pinango have some work to do before they're even close to musts, Clarke's not even close outside of being in AA, Franklin's probably safe from being drafted already, etc
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby CubinNY » Sat Jun 18, 2022 11:36 pm

Wilson is playing this [expletive] perfectly. The Ricketts don’t deserve him.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby Bertz » Sun Jun 19, 2022 2:14 pm

Even though I look at their catcher situation and don't see a ton of need, the Padres keep getting mentioned with Willson Contreras. If they are in on him, I'm curious how gettable Luis Campusano is. Any team but the Padres I would assume not very, but Preller's always willing to push his chips in. Willson probably doesn't bring him back on his own, but I would think additionally sending Robertson and/or taking back Myers' contract would be in the right neighborhood?

Because of the positional versatility from Hoerner, Morel, and Wisdom, having catcher already settled going into the winter would make the offseason very straightforward. Just bring in players you like. One SP would still be an absolute necessity, but otherwise there'd not really any imperative for addressing any specific positions. That's usually a recipe for making the best decisions.
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Re: 2022 In Season Thread

Postby CubinNY » Mon Jun 20, 2022 9:33 pm

Nelson Velasquez called up.
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