The Bears trade down to 9! Roster turnover/Offseason Thread

[We Got The Whole 9]

Saw a piece written in a negative Bears light about soon to be FA's being tagged by their prospective franchises. Payne is most likely one of those players who'll be tagged, no matter what that dumbass wrote, Payne wasn't the end all be all for the Bears. Given the Bears needs it still should not be too difficult to improve their pass rush via free agency. Not all of the young players are going to be tagged and any one of them will be vast improvement over what the Bears had last season. I'd like to see if Poles and company will be able to identify free agents who are about to bust out and become high impact players.

Despite the tons of money the Bears have to spend, I still expect them to look for value in free agency. That's not to say they will bargain shop like last year. I explained this somewhere else, but my example is this.

Da'Ron Payne, he's probably going to get 22Mil AAV on the open market. 2nd highest paid DT makes 21AAV, so I'd guess at 25, he gets a touch more. But as long as Aaron Donald is around, he'll be the 2nd highest paid DT and the best case scenario is his play is that of the 2nd best DT in the league. And based on his salary (and others right below him) we know that level of DT play is worth about 20-22Mil per year. Basically, there's 0 chance he provides surplus value over his cost because you're already paying him tops at his position.

A guy like Dre'Mont Jones from Denver, may cost like 15Mil/year, but he could give you top 10-15 DT level play on the field, which may be worth like 16-18Mil, so essentially you could get a surplus in value because there is a chance (no matter how slight) that he outperforms his salary in any given year.

So, I still think Poles will spend a bunch of money (again he has to). But I do think he will be smart about it. He will look for ascending players, who are still young, potentially improving, and have been successful in smaller roles. And honestly, this is how all teams should look at adding in free agency, if they aren't surely one of the top 5 contenders missing singular pieces here and there.

I understand your point and agree to an extent but not totally. If there's a player that is 30 but they play a pivotal position like 3T, there's still potential there for a transformative addition and a player that will make all the ancillary pieces better. Add them whenever they are available, I say.

Sent from my motorola one 5G UW using Tapatalk

[cwood218]

https://twitter.com/clayharbs82/status/1618363887874887680?s=46&t=z2HesJ_yoDAF5k4EPy4NpQ

Yes please

In this scenario using the #7 pick on a LB should be a firing offense.

[David]

https://twitter.com/clayharbs82/status/1618363887874887680?s=46&t=z2HesJ_yoDAF5k4EPy4NpQ

Yes please

In this scenario using the #7 pick on a LB should be a firing offense.

yeah. no, thank you

[TarzanJoeWallis]

https://twitter.com/clayharbs82/status/1618363887874887680?s=46&t=z2HesJ_yoDAF5k4EPy4NpQ

Yes please

In this scenario using the #7 pick on a LB should be a firing offense.

yeah. no, thank you

I don’t think people were saying yes to that specific pick, they are saying yes to that trade.

[minnesotacubsfan]

https://twitter.com/clayharbs82/status/1618363887874887680?s=46&t=z2HesJ_yoDAF5k4EPy4NpQ

Yes please

In this scenario using the #7 pick on a LB should be a firing offense.

I would agree, but I'm more excited about 3 1st rd picks + + + +

that trade would set the Bears up nicely for years

[Tim]

I'm fine with the trade. Hate the pick.

Take the top OT, DI, DL you have on your board at 7. I'd add WR, but none of them should be rated that high.

[cwood218]

In this scenario using the #7 pick on a LB should be a firing offense.

yeah. no, thank you

I don’t think people were saying yes to that specific pick, they are saying yes to that trade.

Agreed, I was speaking only about the pick. The trade would of course be awesome.

[David]

yeah, same. figured that part was obvious.

[bukie]

https://twitter.com/clayharbs82/status/1618363887874887680?s=46&t=z2HesJ_yoDAF5k4EPy4NpQ

Yes please

More like the Raid-ed, am I right?

Good haul, but a terrible mock pick of a player not even ranked in the top 25 of any reputable draft board right now (hell, CBS has him ranked 43), and at an increasingly less important position. Take the best available line prospect, or if for some reason there's a run on OL/DL in the top 5, take the best available CB in a bind (note, the likeliness of this happening is about none and there's a good chance one of Anderson/Carter/Murphy will be there).

[WrigleyField 22]

I love when the mock draft trade engines allow just outlandish scenarios. Fixed the Bears O

[rawaction]

https://twitter.com/clayharbs82/status/1618363887874887680?s=46&t=z2HesJ_yoDAF5k4EPy4NpQ

Yes please

More like the Raid-ed, am I right?

Good haul, but a terrible mock pick of a player not even ranked in the top 25 of any reputable draft board right now (hell, CBS has him ranked 43), and at an increasingly less important position. Take the best available line prospect, or if for some reason there's a run on OL/DL in the top 5, take the best available CB in a bind (note, the likeliness of this happening is about none and there's a good chance one of Anderson/Carter/Murphy will be there).

So, I really like the player picked. I would probably have him top 15. I think Simpson is a the prototype Eberflus LB. He's long, versatile and fast. I'd love to have him as the long-term at Will LB in this defense. And this is not a comp, but I think he has some ability to rush off the edge too ala Micah Parsons.

That being said, there's no way you can trade Roquan, basically laugh at the previous regime for taking an off ball LB top 10 (as Flus did) and then take a LB top 10. In general, I hate the logic involved in taking the same position as a player you got rid of. Would have been like using the pick from the Mack trade on a DE. You just filled a hole you self created and went from the best player on the team to an unproven prospect. Never made sense to me. That's what happened when they draft Kevin White after getting rid of Brandon Marshall, and we see how that worked out.

If they were able to get a late 1st (after 20) and then took Simpson, I'd be pretty happy with that, provided they drafted an offensive player earlier. He's a good looking prospect.

[jumbo]

Saw a piece written in a negative Bears light about soon to be FA's being tagged by their prospective franchises. Payne is most likely one of those players who'll be tagged, no matter what that dumbass wrote, Payne wasn't the end all be all for the Bears. Given the Bears needs it still should not be too difficult to improve their pass rush via free agency. Not all of the young players are going to be tagged and any one of them will be vast improvement over what the Bears had last season. I'd like to see if Poles and company will be able to identify free agents who are about to bust out and become high impact players.

Despite the tons of money the Bears have to spend, I still expect them to look for value in free agency. That's not to say they will bargain shop like last year. I explained this somewhere else, but my example is this.

Da'Ron Payne, he's probably going to get 22Mil AAV on the open market. 2nd highest paid DT makes 21AAV, so I'd guess at 25, he gets a touch more. But as long as Aaron Donald is around, he'll be the 2nd highest paid DT and the best case scenario is his play is that of the 2nd best DT in the league. And based on his salary (and others right below him) we know that level of DT play is worth about 20-22Mil per year. Basically, there's 0 chance he provides surplus value over his cost because you're already paying him tops at his position.

A guy like Dre'Mont Jones from Denver, may cost like 15Mil/year, but he could give you top 10-15 DT level play on the field, which may be worth like 16-18Mil, so essentially you could get a surplus in value because there is a chance (no matter how slight) that he outperforms his salary in any given year.

So, I still think Poles will spend a bunch of money (again he has to). But I do think he will be smart about it. He will look for ascending players, who are still young, potentially improving, and have been successful in smaller roles. And honestly, this is how all teams should look at adding in free agency, if they aren't surely one of the top 5 contenders missing singular pieces here and there.

Once in a while I’ll go to over the cap and look at free agents by position. I typically sort by age and snaps played to try to identify young starting grade players, typically looking at 27 or so and under. I think poles will do what you said and target up and comers.
The snaps played thing is flawed cuz teams like us play Jones and Mustihoer all season due to lack of competition/depth
Side note on jones being on the pff all rookie team: how many rookie tackles actually play from game 1? Generally a handful, but him doing it as a 5th round pick says more about the bears than him (though I do credit him on his transition to a 17game season)

[BigbadB]

I'd do that Raiders trade all day long, but I don't think the Raiders make that trade. McDaniels is going to push for Brady, and you won't get Brady if you trade away all of your draft picks for Brady's backup.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I'd do that Raiders trade all day long, but I don't think the Raiders make that trade. McDaniels is going to push for Brady, and you won't get Brady if you trade away all of your draft picks for Brady's backup.

That's also a trade the raiders could give up for Rodgers

[UMFan83]

Wtf



Will happily grab him if he’s sitting there in the 2nd round lol

[jersey cubs fan]

Wtf



Will happily grab him if he’s sitting there in the 2nd round lol

He’s 5th in Mel’s big board, going to the Jets at 13 in his mock.

[CubColtPacer]

I'd do that Raiders trade all day long, but I don't think the Raiders make that trade. McDaniels is going to push for Brady, and you won't get Brady if you trade away all of your draft picks for Brady's backup.

Presumably since free agency starts in March the Brady decision one way or the other will have been made way before the draft. I think everyone would agree if the Raiders got Brady that would eliminate them as a trade up possibility.

[WrigleyField 22]

Wtf



Will happily grab him if he’s sitting there in the 2nd round lol

He’s 5th in Mel’s big board, going to the Jets at 13 in his mock.

Well if he really is 5th he probably would be a second rounder under most circumstance so this is him just calling him the Jets idiots then lol

[jersey cubs fan]

Wtf



Will happily grab him if he’s sitting there in the 2nd round lol

He’s 5th in Mel’s big board, going to the Jets at 13 in his mock.

Well if he really is 5th he probably would be a second rounder under most circumstance so this is him just calling him the Jets idiots then lol

Overall, not at the position. But I meant 6th:

6. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

HT: 6-1 | WT: 200 | Previously: 5

Smith-Njigba had a lost season, finishing with just five catches because of a nagging hamstring injury. He announced he will now try to heal up before the combine in March. This injury shouldn't affect his play in 2023, and I still think he could be a star at the next level.

This is the same wideout who led Ohio State in catches (95) and yards (1,606) last season, even on a team with two wide receivers drafted in Round 1 of the 2022 draft. He has stellar burst and explosiveness out of breaks. He's a hands catcher who can run the entire route tree, and he can make defenders miss after the catch. Most of Smith-Njigba's work came from the slot in 2021-- all but eight of his catches came while aligned there. He led the FBS in receiving yards per route run (4.0). There's a great chance he will remain the top receiver off the board in April.

[WrigleyField 22]

Oooh gotcha.

That seems at odds with most current draft boards. But going into the season JSN had that type of hype. And not like he sucked, just was injured.

[WrigleyField 22]

Would like this rumor if it wasnt from horsefeathering Allbright

[UMFan83]

I lost track of where the cap space number was going to be but this is saying we were anticipating $110m - $120m and the actual figure is $92m

[rawaction]

https://twitter.com/BN_Bears/status/1619086935204696064

I lost track of where the cap space number was going to be but this is saying we were anticipating $110m - $120m and the actual figure is $92m

Yeah, I was noticing the changes there. They can get to 110M by cutting Whitehair (June 1), Justin Jones and Muhammad.

[WrigleyField 22]

https://twitter.com/BN_Bears/status/1619086935204696064

I lost track of where the cap space number was going to be but this is saying we were anticipating $110m - $120m and the actual figure is $92m

Yea it's mainly what the "Effective space" metric always was because you always had to fill out the bottom x number of roster spots (which is now almost all done with futures contracts)

I'm going to guess also Reiff's incentives officially hit which was probably several million off the rollover from 2022.

[UK]

https://twitter.com/BN_Bears/status/1619086935204696064

I lost track of where the cap space number was going to be but this is saying we were anticipating $110m - $120m and the actual figure is $92m

Yeah, I was noticing the changes there. They can get to 110M by cutting Whitehair (June 1), Justin Jones and Muhammad.

Fwiw, I would cut Jackson too.