2022-2023 Offseason Top Prospects List

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The reasonable criticism of last year's draft IMO is that they passed on Brooks Lee to add a bunch of future relievers. But even if that’s true, it keeps the floor pretty high. Like Horton's (presuming health) at minimum a setup caliber arm with his + fastball and ++ slider. Mule's got elite velo, Birdseye and Frisch each have a pair of carrying pitches, etc.

The Cubs were trying to buy out Lee’s Cal Poly SLO commitment in the second round of 2019 so there are clearly fans of his in the org. There were pretty well established rumors he was falling/completely off certain boards because of his medicals, so I just can’t question that without more info.

Once the Guardians (with their draft models’ bias to younger players) passed on Collier, I knew the industry was lower than draft media.

I preferred both of those to Parada. I wonder if Neto is the guy we look back on with regret.

[Bertz]

The reasonable criticism of last year's draft IMO is that they passed on Brooks Lee to add a bunch of future relievers. But even if that’s true, it keeps the floor pretty high. Like Horton's (presuming health) at minimum a setup caliber arm with his + fastball and ++ slider. Mule's got elite velo, Birdseye and Frisch each have a pair of carrying pitches, etc.

The Cubs were trying to buy out Lee’s Cal Poly SLO commitment in the second round of 2019 so there are clearly fans of his in the org. There were pretty well established rumors he was falling/completely off certain boards because of his medicals, so I just can’t question that without more info.

Once the Guardians (with their draft models‘ bias to younger players) passed on Collier, I knew the industry was lower than draft media.

I preferred both of those to Parada. I wonder if Neto is the guy we look back on with regret.

Yeah I mostly became content with the decision once we saw the data on Horton's pitches. Just absolutely monster stuff, though there is some real reliever risk.

I would have taken Lee, but as you said the knee stuff should give you some very real pause. Collier its hard to question too much. He fell another 10 spots so it's not like the Cubs were on an island in not thinking the juice is worth the squeeze. Neto I'm not too worried about either. The org right now has so much quantity I'm okay potentially foregoing some value by way of his high floor and taking a bigger swing at a guy more likely to be a frontline talent.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

For me the risk with Lee is that he becomes a tweener that dramatically lowers his ceiling. If he's not an MLB SS(we'll have to wait and see, but at a minimum 5 errors in 25 games is a bad start), then as a 3B/2B guy he really needs to hit for some pop, and that's an open question. Even though he was panned as a late riser, I agree Neto might be the one that is the real regret if he's a bona fide MLB SS defensively. Possibly Collier too, but HS prospects are a bit more blank canvas.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Matt Mervis was amongst the top 15 who just missed BA’s Top 100 list:

Matt Mervis, 1B, Cubs: After a standout 2022 and a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League, Mervis earned serious consideration for the Top 100 but ultimately fell just short. A nondrafted free agent in 2020, Mervis rebounded from a poor full-season debut in 2021 to hit the third-most home runs in the minor leagues in 2022. Across three levels Mervis hit 36 home runs while slashing .309/.379/.605 over 137 games. He pairs above-average bat-to-ball skills (76% contact rate) with plus power (105 mph 90th percentile) and has the profile of an everyday power-hitting first baseman.

These Cubs prospects each made at least one of BA’s top 150 prospects:

Cubs: Ben Brown, RHP, Cristian Hernandez, SS, Cade Horton, RHP, Matt Mervis, 1B, Hayden Wesneski, RHP.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BP top 101: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... e-top-101/

28. PCA
80. Caissie
88. Mervis

No Davis or Alcántara.

[TomtheBombadil]

Last year's draft is going to be among the worst in Cubs history. It's really inexplicable.

Horton was a surprise but it's not hard to explain at all. He's a power pitcher already sitting mid-high 90s with a breaking ball that can touch 90 while missing bats in the zone, has feel for other pitches, and throws strikes. He was young for the class, a standout athlete (signed at Oklahoma to play both baseball and football), has size and physicality. It's a SP profile, has the tools to play any role on a staff....The most ballyhooed SP prospects in the org are way more bark than bite, he (and Ferris) bring more power, pedigree, and command. I'd go as far as saying he is one of the most likely and closest MLers in the class. Might even start him in AA ala Hoerner in 2019

I don' think they made any egregious passes either:

Collier - Reports on 3B defense seem to have improved but there's a shot he would have been a hit over power 1B prospect
Parada - Catchers aren't WAR whales so Value, personally I've got weird faith the catcher of The Future is already in house. Should make a great rival, only reason I hate him landing with the Mets is it's another win for Cohen
Rocker - A pretty major TJ risk in 2022, probably not so different in 2023, hopefully reaches FA nice and healthy
Lee - Not a standout athlete even without including the knee injury, ended up hitting lots of GBs during the debut
Neto - Maybe during the 2010s he's the guy, I tomato/tomahto he and Horton in Value, go back to ballyhooed SP prospects in the org being more bark than bite

Edit: Phone posting is no bueno

[CubinNY]

Horton - TJS
Frisch - TJS
Ferris - was compared to Tim Lincicum in his delivery. Clearly, they can work on his mechanics, but still.
Birdsell - Rotator cuff, TJS in high school
Mule - Great heater, but wants to be Ohtani

They definitely laid all their chips on the pitching development team and that is the strength of the organization, so maybe it will work out. The chances are not good.

[Bertz]

Horton - TJS
Frisch - TJS
Ferris - was compared to Tim Lincicum in his delivery. Clearly, they can work on his mechanics, but still.
Birdsell - Rotator cuff, TJS in high school
Mule - Great heater, but wants to be Ohtani

They definitely laid all their chips on the pitching development team and that is the strength of the organization, so maybe it will work out. The chances are not good.

It's 2023, damn near every pitcher of any consequence has had or will eventually have TJ. It's a natural consequence of the explosion in velocity the last 10 years. Like pitchers are still inherently dangerous so you're not wrong about your broader point of the team putting all their resources into a more dangerous demo, but e.g. Horton's risk is tied far more to the short amount of time he's been flashing ace-level stuff rather than him having had a TJ already.

[Cubswin11]

“Cubs don’t draft and develop pitchers”

*Cubs start proving they can develop pitchers with a new regime and drafting them and some of them get hurt, which is an inherent risk.*

“Well not like that.”

[CubinNY]

Horton's risk is tied far more to the short amount of time he's been flashing ace-level stuff rather than him having had a TJ already.

Yes, I thought about adding it to the post, but the discussion needs to die, for now. I hope the board is around in 3-5 years (and I'm around too, lol).

Farris appears to have more upside as a starting pitcher to me than Horton who is likely a closer or set-up guy.

[Tryptamine]

BP top 101: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/pros ... e-top-101/

28. PCA
80. Caissie
88. Mervis

No Davis or Alcántara.

Were the rating systems always this bad?

[TomtheBombadil]

Crow-Armstrong is MLB.com’s #7 OF prospect, just in front of Sal Frelick (2021 draftee, .331/.403/.480 btw A+-AAA) with the Brewers:

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 55 | Field: 80 | Overall: 55

Crow-Armstrong entered the summer of 2019 as the top-rated high school prospect, and while his stock dipped slightly, he still went 19th overall in the 2020 Draft and signed with the Mets for $3,359,000. The California high school product's pro debut ended after six games when he tore the labrum in his non-throwing shoulder during a baserunning mishap in May 2021, and New York traded him to the Cubs for Javier Baez and Trevor Williams two months later. In his first year in the new organization, he demonstrated newfound power at the plate, established himself as the game's best defensive prospect, played in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game and helped South Bend win the High-A Midwest League championship.

As an amateur, Crow-Armstrong used his quick left-handed stroke and a disciplined mindset to lace line drives to all fields. Chicago helped him incorporate some swing changes designed to allow him to pull and lift balls more easily, and he responded last year by making increased hard contact and showing at least 20-homer potential. He did become noticeably more aggressive, striking out nearly five times as much as he walked following a promotion to High-A, and will need to tone down his approach to succeed against more advanced pitching.

As exciting as Crow-Armstrong's enhanced offensive upside is, it pales in comparison to his defense. Scouts give top-of-the-scale grades to his center-field skills, as he exhibits tremendous range from gap to gap with his combination of plus speed and precision reads and routes, and he completes the package with solid arm strength. He's aggressive in the outfield and on the bases, stealing 32 bags in 43 tries last season.

[TomtheBombadil]

Crow-Armstrong is the 7th ranked OF prospect on MLB.com, just in front of Sal Frelick (2021 draftee, .331/.403/.480 btw A+-AAA) with the Brewers:

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 55 | Field: 80 | Overall: 55

Crow-Armstrong entered the summer of 2019 as the top-rated high school prospect, and while his stock dipped slightly, he still went 19th overall in the 2020 Draft and signed with the Mets for $3,359,000. The California high school product's pro debut ended after six games when he tore the labrum in his non-throwing shoulder during a baserunning mishap in May 2021, and New York traded him to the Cubs for Javier Baez and Trevor Williams two months later. In his first year in the new organization, he demonstrated newfound power at the plate, established himself as the game's best defensive prospect, played in the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game and helped South Bend win the High-A Midwest League championship.

As an amateur, Crow-Armstrong used his quick left-handed stroke and a disciplined mindset to lace line drives to all fields. Chicago helped him incorporate some swing changes designed to allow him to pull and lift balls more easily, and he responded last year by making increased hard contact and showing at least 20-homer potential. He did become noticeably more aggressive, striking out nearly five times as much as he walked following a promotion to High-A, and will need to tone down his approach to succeed against more advanced pitching.

As exciting as Crow-Armstrong's enhanced offensive upside is, it pales in comparison to his defense. Scouts give top-of-the-scale grades to his center-field skills, as he exhibits tremendous range from gap to gap with his combination of plus speed and precision reads and routes, and he completes the package with solid arm strength. He's aggressive in the outfield and on the bases, stealing 32 bags in 43 tries last season.

#10, Colton Cowser, is another LHH CF prospect, 2021 first round pick…hit .278/.406/.469 btw A+-AAA

Jackson Chourio, also with the Brewers, @ #3…Jordan Walker #2

[TomtheBombadil]

BN posted a couple bits from BA’s Cubs chat…Craig, looks like you’ve got someone in your corner on Wicks as a 5th SP. I’m trying to imagine this world in which 3-5 merely average pitches and an above average one, on a healthy strike throwing lefty with command, is a “decent” 5th starter, but you’re not on an island!

“Evaluators believe in it in the sense Wicks could be a decent No. 5 starter. It’s mostly all average stuff except for the changeup (which has been more 55-60 in pro ball than the 70 it was in college) and he shows a good feel for pitching. At the same time, there’s also a real concern he’s going to start getting hit harder once he starts facing better competition, which we saw happen in his brief Double-A stint. He’s a lefty with a deep pitch mix and a good feel for pitching, all of which are good traits. It’s just more in line with a No. 5 starter, which is something every team needs and shouldn’t be discounted or dismissed.”

The Triantos comment isn’t fun. (As an aside I’m personally getting real bored of reading the word “profile” in prospecting. We’re in this era obsessed with data and information, pay to get access to general profiles and opinion…Like wthey man):

“Triantos wasn’t really in the Top 10 conversation, in the minds of either Cubs officials or opposing evaluators. The defense is bad and there are real profile issues …. Triantos is more likely to end up at first base. He does not move well in the infield at all. The 100% outcome is Ty France – a short 1B who can really hit. But there is also a real chance he ends up like Michael Chavis, another short, bat-first infielder who had to move to first and never hit enough. There’s some promising things with Triantos’ bat, but he’s got a long way to go and the profile will be tough.”

[craig]

Tom, I didn't say Wicks was or wasn't a 5th starter, myself. Beats me. I hope he's more.

I had just tried to summarize why scouts would see him that way, and would not rank him highly. 5th starter is where scouts place guys with average stuff. And I think almost every big-league pitchers, 5th starters included, have at least one above-average pitch. So having one 55-pitch and otherwise average doesn't make a guy get scouted as better than #5, if that's how they see him, that's why they ranked him where they did. But nothing stays the same. They might scout him differently a year from now, in which case they'll rank him differently. If they said his change was a 55 but used to be 70, maybe he'll get the 70-caliber change back? Maybe a breaking ball they scouted as average this year, on nights the scouts saw him, maybe they'll see him on sharper nights and grade more favorably? Who knows?

Tom, I think they already factor in the lefty stuff when they grade the pitches? For example, if a RHP threw a fastball with Wicks velocity and spin rates, that a righty would have it graded as below-average? I think they scouted it as high as average because relative to lefties its not bad, but if a RHP prospect threw it no harder, that it would scout as below average?

[TomtheBombadil]

Tom, I think they already factor in the lefty stuff when they grade the pitches? For example, if a RHP threw a fastball with Wicks velocity and spin rates, that a righty would have it graded as below-average?

Yeah that sounds right. A RH with Wicks’ velo might be very lucky to even be viewed as a SP prospect

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB Pipeline Top 100:

28. PCA
87. Kevin Alcántara
92. Brennen Davis

[Bertz]

I don't think it's unreasonable to not include Hayden Wesneski, but I will say I can't even really devil's advocate my way into thinking Ryan Pepiot is better, and he somehow came in at #70.

[TomtheBombadil]

Hot takes on those Cubs writeups:

- 50 hit tool on Davis was excellent to see as I lean that way too. This obviously depends on health, but yeah 2022 isn’t enough to throw out this guy took nearly 400 excellent PAs across the board in the upper minors at 21 during 2021 (including .252 BA with periphs in a AA league that hit .239)

- Maybe I’m a little PCA’d out but it seemed a little rude to include him in both players’ writeups and CF evaluations. Davis is explicitly kicked out of CF in his writeup by PCA. You don’t see that often. Without the PCA plugs, they read as if both players are viewed as CFs around the league. Davis got a 50, Alcantara a 55

———

Non-Cubs top 100 takes:

- Prospects outside the org I’ve come to appreciate and find underrated somewhat: Volpe (top 5 here, see him as a SS and I take him 1), Painter (6 here, closer to 1 himself), Chourio (8 here, see the other two)…Kyle Harrison’s a top 10 guy, 18 here…Gimme Bobby Miller over Eury Perez and Espino these days. Gavin Williams too if his back is good…Cartaya (14) is excellent, would have Kevin Parada (honestly impressed they have him at 36 already, nice) right with him…Harry Ford too, great player more pissed he didn’t fall to the Cubs in 2021…Drew Romo, Endy Rodriguez, O’Hoppe, and Naylor are catchers outside the top 50 that could be in…Gavin Cross..Waldichuk…Maybe I saw him a ton coincidentally but thought Carson Williams was the most dynamic player in the CARL (A ball)…Evan Carter and Colton Cowser

- Overrated: Mick Abel (48) just doesn’t do it for me as a SP prospect, limited pitch mix and reliever command

- I look at Cade Cavalli and think “Kilian’s not much older and there isn’t a massive gap in performance”

- So begins Porter over Lesko, which yes

- No Rocker but, given how his prospectdom has gone since HS (other than freshman NCAA when nothing was at stake) not so surprising. I’m more surprised at no Spencer Jones. There’s plenty of 2022 draftees on there and I can’t think of a strong debut other than Holliday off the top

- Other absent prospects I’d take over many: Blake Walston LHSP, Joe Mack C, Eric Brown Jr SS, Jordan Wicks LHSP

[Bertz]

Law looks to be the high guy on Alcantara

[CubinNY]

https://twitter.com/jon_greenberg/status/1620049301681631238?t=9lchHsJvgMyt0pQGJdjaog&s=19

Law looks to be the high guy on Alcantara

I think he's the Cubs' best prospect by a wide margin. I don't pretend to be an expert, though.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/jon_greenberg/status/1620049301681631238?t=9lchHsJvgMyt0pQGJdjaog&s=19

Law looks to be the high guy on Alcantara

26. PCA
29. Alcántara
50. Davis

[Bertz]

I don't know exactly how he mathed this but a composite ranking of the BA, MLB, BP, and Keith Law prospect lists. FG and ESPN still to come, though I don't think they'll move things that much. Probably move Alcantara and Caissie up a bit and Davis down?

I'm surprised at the total lack of support we've seen for the pitchers. I don't think any of them are slam dunk top 100 types, but Wesneski ought to be close and each of Wicks, Brown, and Horton are of the caliber where you wouldn't be surprised by some assorted love. Instead I believe Callis said Horton would make his personal list and that's it. Maybe that's another change we end up seeing from the last two lists, since they both tend to lean on the newer age data pretty hard.

[Cubswin11]

I think he’s still our best prospect in terms of overall value and upside (Hernandez maybe as the upside call if he can stick at SS).

[CubinNY]

I think he’s still our best prospect in terms of overall value and upside (Hernandez maybe as the upside call if he can stick at SS).

He could be a difference-maker this year. Best case he destroys AAA for two months. Bellinger holds his own at the plate and brings back a good MLB-ready pitching prospect in July.