2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:30 pm



Anyone know what that top list looks like after Davis?
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Cubswin11 » Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:44 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:https://twitter.com/baseballpro/status/1479528568799571969?s=20

Anyone know what that top list looks like after Davis?

1. Davis
2. Caissie
3. Preciado
4. Triantos
5. Alcantara
6. PCA
7. Wicks
8. Marquez
9. Canario
10. Kilian
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:24 pm

real 'the only on field performance I care about is (exit) velocity' vibes from that Top 10
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tim » Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:27 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:real 'the only on field performance I care about is (exit) velocity' vibes from that Top 10

PCA?

Otherwise...yeah.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:31 pm

Tim wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:real 'the only on field performance I care about is (exit) velocity' vibes from that Top 10

PCA?

Otherwise...yeah.


Triantos and Davis hit well too so it's an exaggeration, but stuff like Canario and Marquez in the top 10 and higher than Kilian is revealing.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:33 pm

Speaking of Cubs prospects and EVs:

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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tim » Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:02 pm

I'm assuming that would be Morel the Elder.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby PackLandVA » Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:40 am

Tim wrote:I'm assuming that would be Morel the Elder.


He’s Mormon?
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tim » Sat Jan 08, 2022 5:02 am

PackLandVA wrote:
Tim wrote:I'm assuming that would be Morel the Elder.


He’s Mormon?

I was going for more of an ancient Rome vibe
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Splendid Splinter » Sat Jan 08, 2022 5:04 am

Tim wrote:
PackLandVA wrote:
Tim wrote:I'm assuming that would be Morel the Elder.


He’s Mormon?

I was going for more of an ancient Rome vibe


Sounds like a D&D character
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:14 pm

It just sank in that Cristian Hernandez did not make BP’s top 10. Props, part because I agree and part because it’s nice to see some variety on this offseason’s lists. It just doesn’t make sense for a DSL prospect who didn’t dominate the league offensively like Julio Rodriguez did
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Named After Maddux » Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:09 pm

Really great rankings by CubsWin. Digging this analysis.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Post Count Padder » Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:39 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:https://twitter.com/baseballpro/status/1479528568799571969?s=20

Anyone know what that top list looks like after Davis?

1. Davis
2. Caissie
3. Preciado
4. Triantos
5. Alcantara
6. PCA
7. Wicks
8. Marquez
9. Canario
10. Kilian

Pretty wild that 8 of those 10 weren't on the team 13 months ago.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CubsWin » Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:35 pm

Named After Maddux wrote:Really great rankings by CubsWin. Digging this analysis.

Thanks for the kind words, Greg.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Regular Show » Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:14 am

CubsWin wrote:
Named After Maddux wrote:Really great rankings by CubsWin. Digging this analysis.

Thanks for the kind words, Greg.


Good list CubsWin. This is pretty close to how I have it (I think) in my mind. I would probably push Burl Carraway lower and some scouts think he never develops even average or slightly-below average command...

Overall, the list is really good and you can argue it a bunch of different ways after Brennen Davis honestly.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CubsWin » Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:12 pm

Regular Show wrote:
CubsWin wrote:
Named After Maddux wrote:Really great rankings by CubsWin. Digging this analysis.

Thanks for the kind words, Greg.


Good list CubsWin. This is pretty close to how I have it (I think) in my mind. I would probably push Burl Carraway lower and some scouts think he never develops even average or slightly-below average command...

Overall, the list is really good and you can argue it a bunch of different ways after Brennen Davis honestly.

Definitely. After Brennen, you can come up with sound reasoning for just about any order for the rest of the top ten. After that it gets even more arbitrary for the order of ranking. That's why I like the tiering system at Prospects1500. So many of the Cubs prospects right now are so young, that by mid-season, the order could be quite different. Kohl Franklin could be much higher. Cristian Hernandez could be much lower. Jordan Nwogu could skyrocket. Nelson Velazquez could fall.

Caissie, Triantos, Kilian and Wicks seem to have to highest floors. PCA has a decent floor, too. Alcantara, Preciado, Hernandez, Herz and Marquez have ridiculous ceilings with varying likelihoods of reaching them. It's a very dynamic system right now.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Jan 19, 2022 8:07 pm

Brennen Davis is BA’s 16th ranked prospect. Getting someone firmly inside that top 20 is a big step forward IMO. Contextually this is a two sport HS player drafted outside the first sitting in the top 20 just 3-4 years into his pro career (one of those years being the shutdown)…huge player development win that should (but won’t) make everyone a little more optimistic about the Cubs’ abilities to coach up very young prospects

Cristian Hernandez was 81. Much is going to be made of this since it’s a positive, nothing wrong with that, but not so deep down I think we all know making the back of the top 100 isn’t like…the time to celebrate
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CubinNY » Tue Feb 01, 2022 2:30 am

Named After Maddux wrote:Really great rankings by CubsWin. Digging this analysis.

I thought it was a great, balanced assessment. Well done. I read the Cardinals write up and it was terribly done. It made me feel better, too.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:31 pm

Davis was 28th and the only Cub on Keith Law’s top 100. This just seems rational given what we’re working with, there’s plenty of talent outside the org too. Getting two included on the oldest member of the order of the top 100 makers’ latest list (BA) is a sweet win anyway, don’t expect to do any better
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:51 pm



Feels like Law's top 10 is pretty in line with a lot of Cubs Prospect Twitter.

Good list, a lot of good info. In typical Keith Law fashion though some weird stuff, like in 2022 impact he forgot Brennen Davis. And it would be very Keith Law for him to double down on that rather than admit that it was an omission. He also said that Kilian is regularly up to 98 and has a plus changeup and plus control but still thinks he's a 4th starter?
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tim » Tue Feb 08, 2022 3:53 pm

Yeah, he even acknowledges Killian's improved curve ball.

To be fair, he says he only saw him on the worst possible day.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:37 pm

I’m liking the speed of the Caleb Kilian hype this offseason, tempered but well acknowledge. A good chunk of that because it’s so rare when a prospect nails the MiLB performance you want to see for the role, and he’s done that

Who else made the top 10? Generally the same as everyone else?
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tim » Tue Feb 08, 2022 6:06 pm

1) Davis
2) Caissie
3) PCA
4) Wicks
5) Christian Hernandez
6) Alcantara
7) Triantos
8) Preciado
9) Kilian
10) Amaya
11) Pinango
12) Made
13) Herz
14) Marquez
15) Kohl Franklin
16) Howard
17) Jensen
18) Christian Franklin
19) Pablo Aliendo
20) Nelson
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue Feb 08, 2022 7:32 pm

Tim wrote:1) Davis
2) Caissie
3) PCA
4) Wicks
5) Christian Hernandez
6) Alcantara
7) Triantos
8) Preciado
9) Kilian
10) Amaya
11) Pinango
12) Made
13) Herz
14) Marquez
15) Kohl Franklin
16) Howard
17) Jensen
18) Christian Franklin
19) Pablo Aliendo
20) Nelson


IIRC, Law was one of the highest on Wicks predraft, so it makes sense that he would be higher on him in the Cubs system than anyone else.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:14 am

Thank you for posting the list

Wicks was the first one I noticed too, have him similarly ranked. Feels good to have some company on any rankings this year after Davis bc I’m just nowhere near the general/rough consensus

Caissie at 2 also caught my eye because: a) I've kicked it around in my head too thanks to the power/frame combo plus sneaking onto the Padres' 60 last year and b) can imagine being very much on board or more excited with this pre-pandemic. With all these games lost the past couple years I feel a little more leery of a bat first prospect who is very close to bat only (really struggled with defense at MB) with so little game experience and not a ton of exposure as an amateur. Caissie was on my pre-draft radar, for the frame and swing, but even then it was just based on a tweet of him taking BP at an indoor showcase. I'd prefer more reps, found myself thinking just give Nelson Velazquez 15 minutes

BN posted the Christian Franklin writeup, another player I snuck into the teens/top 20 (Aliendo's doing alright too). I'm liking the emphasis on the tools, defense, athleticism, and aptitude on this former "3" year CF starter in the SEC:

Franklin is a plus defender in center, maybe a 70 out there, with plus power, but punched out 78 times in the SEC last spring because he struggled with breaking ball recognition and some mechanical issues that had him swinging uphill. He has electric bat speed, and at least has some ball/strike recognition; add in his athleticism and the Cubs at least have a lot to work with here as they try to get him to stay level and get his weight over his front side sooner. I think he’s a boom-or-bust guy — either he becomes an above-average regular in center, hitting 20-25 homers with great defense, or he stalls out in Double or Triple A.


Franklin had a .402 OBP in 584 NCAA PAs and 141 games fwiw, probably not including any CWS tournament stuff
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