2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby abmillis » Wed Feb 23, 2022 5:15 pm

Fangraphs Top 100
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-100-prospects/

B Davis - 25
Kevin Alcantara - 87
Owen Caissie - 104
James Triantos - 106
Reginald Preciado - 114

Davis with 55 FV, other 4 at 50 FV
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby craig » Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:48 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:Marquez was 10/11 for me too. Less because I think the upside is huge at this stage and more because his last game was a ML one, he’ll be in the upper minors


Will he? He has 0.2 pro innings the last 2 years, 26 career innings above low A, and it's unclear if he's 100% healthy right now. I don't think he needs to be a 200 IP star to be Top-10 worthy, but he's functionally missed 2 straight seasons, doesn't have a clean arm, is 23 now, and had big control issues that could force him to the pen even in perfect health once he has to face hitters in the high minors. To me he's closer to where Fangraphs put him at 20 than he is to being above the Canario/Velazquez/Morel triad of toolsy bats, or even Gray's blank canvas or Vizcaino's more certain health. He's more or less LHP Anderson Espinoza, which is a great talent to have stirring around the 20 mark of the system, but also not one you're doing a ton of long term dreaming about either.


I think the Cubs system is just wildly unpredictable. Huge question marks for a million guys. Brailyn kinda fits in and anybody can justifiably throw him in anywhere they like. *IF* he shows up with a healthy arm, who knows how valuable he might be? Seems like we've got a pile of guys who have some combination of possible upside, and large questions.

1. Brailyn, who knows if he'll ever be healthy; or ever have enough control or finesse. But the Cubs have been pretty cautious with health stuff, and he's had plenty of time to recover. So I'm not sure he doesn't have a reasonable shot to be OK physically this year and beyond. Whether he'll ever be able to throw enough strikes to be good in either role, who knows?

2. I'd rank him ahead of Morel, based on ceiling. Morel has had 5 pro seasons to prove that he can't hit RHP very well. His ceiling is to become a useful utility platoon bench versus LHP. I can't see a ceiling where he'd ever be a guy you'd want absorbing 250 AB in a season, there just aren't enough LHP in the league to get that many. Probably Brailyn will be a lefty reliever; but there's a ceiling where he could be a really good one; plus it's still not inconceivable that he might still shake out as a useful starter. The ability to throw 98-100 LH easily is more unique than Morel's potential flexible platoon utilityman potential, in my view.

Seems to me that for teams that elevate, they convert on some improbable possibilities. Brailyn being healthy and finding enough control to be useful is one of those possibilities that probably won't happen, but could make an impact if it did.

3. I'd also rank him ahead of Canario. Hitting big-league pitching is so hard. When a guy struggles to hit .230 or OBP .300 against A-ball pitching, it's long odds that he'll end up being lots better big-leaguers.

Brailyn, Morel, Canario, these are all variably improbable guys, so we're kind of hoping to beat the normal odds on one or several of them. Just as applies with Vizcaino and Alcantara and Preciado and Espinoza, etc., etc., etc..

So I fault nobody for ranking these improbables in any sequence they like. I guess I just kinda feel like you keep throwing the dice, and once in a while you'll get lucky.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CubsWin » Fri Feb 25, 2022 12:38 am

CubinNY wrote:
Named After Maddux wrote:Really great rankings by CubsWin. Digging this analysis.

I thought it was a great, balanced assessment. Well done. I read the Cardinals write up and it was terribly done. It made me feel better, too.

I haven't logged onto the site in a while, but I just wanted to say thank you for the kind words.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Mar 07, 2022 8:03 pm

^^ Yeah I thought that was really well done esp going 50+ deep. I see you’ve embraced MiLB stats now!

——

4 Cubs…I’m a big fan of Prospects Live. Bryan Smith pointed out the other day that several of their guys were hired within a relatively short time, site’s only been up 3-4 years tops

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects ... -prospects

Davis @ 15, Crow-Armstrong @ 60, Hernandez at 79, and Alcantara @ 85
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Mar 18, 2022 2:35 pm

Davis and Hernandez made the Pipeline top 100…Notably they [also] pointed out Hernandez’s nearly 2 GO/AO in regards to a swing that needs some work getting shorter
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:50 am

I like the Howard (14) writeup from MLB Pipeline:

One of the best defenders in the entire Minors, Howard is a legitimate plus-plus shortstop. He has quick-twitch actions, fast hands and a plus arm capable of making quality throws from a variety of angles. He has instincts and intelligence to complement his physical tools, and the only reason he spent time at second base last summer was to give fellow teenager Kevin Made some time at shortstop.

After Howard's offensive upside drew mixed reviews on the high school showcase circuit, he didn't answer any of those questions in his debut. He has some promising building blocks in a sound right-handed swing, the bat speed and projectable strength to have perhaps average power and solid speed. But he also has a long ways to go with his plate discipline and pitch recognition, which leads to too many strikeouts and too much ground-ball contact.


Note the GB comment and that his rates were lower than all but Triantos and Caissie among the sensations, kbvy higher workload and level too!

Anyway also like Franklin in a top 20 and behind Canario, similar prospects I like as a potential 4th OFer turned draft picks...Kilian and Wicks both top 5...
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Post Count Padder » Sun Mar 27, 2022 10:38 pm

I think Pipeline reranked the Cubs system? Unless I'm late to that party. I don't recall Triantos being No. 3 before.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Mon Mar 28, 2022 5:00 pm

Post Count Padder wrote:I think Pipeline reranked the Cubs system? Unless I'm late to that party. I don't recall Triantos being No. 3 before.


Yeah I think late last week it got updated. Lots of good stuff in there, including a lot of confirmation on things we've heard a bit about this spring (like how nasty Kohl Franklin has looked).
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby UMFan83 » Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:52 pm

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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:06 pm

I forget I like that Gorman, Liberatore, Walker, Herrera, and Wynn group in the Cardinals org plus still like deeper cuts like Luken Baker and Tink Hence. There's some similarities to the Cubs in that 2022 might be a huge year for them after getting together a bunch of highly regarded often top ranked youths
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Apr 02, 2022 4:00 pm

Since it's April this is my top 10 entering 2022. Should at least be useful to compare and contrast approaches and see what I overrate/underrated in this "post"-pandemic world...I like to think there's more of a holistic approach to the data here, feel there's too much focus on warped 2021 triple slashes as if it was bidness as usual/conditions were normal and the world didn't change:

1: Brennen Davis CF

It's fun to think that Davis was seen as extremely raw when drafted in 2018, turns out the only things capable of slowing him down were a few HBPs leading to missed time, a global pandemic erasing the 2020 MiLB season, and probably the shady business side of pro sports. While general youth and inexperience would likely lead to some early struggles, god forbid, Davis is probably one of the 26 best players and 5 best OFers in the org right now. A 31% K rate at AA Tennessee last year gives the Cubs an easy out on even talking about winning a ML job, but after 2021 it's hard to say Davis has much to do in the minors beyond making everyone else feel more confident. The 31% K rate belies an otherwise clean and loud offensive performance that included a 10%+ BBs, just a 36% GB rate, .225 IsoSLG, .367 OBP, .374 wOBA, and 135 wRC+ at the level. That run was sandwiched between a flawless 32 PA warm up at High A South Bend and a 68 PA run at AAA Iowa with just a 22% K rate and other good stuff. Returning to the minors will give him an opportunity to momentarily appease the algorithms, probably save the Cubs a ton of money in the process. I like to think there's a George Springer-esque ceiling here, particularly if he mashes in the minors this year, but names like Werth and Haniger also come to mind. Had he gone to the U of Miami, 2022 would be the first full pro season

2: Caleb Kilian RHSP

Being a late bloomer entering his age 25 season initially hurt kills him in rankings, but has moved swiftly through the minors since being drafted in 2019 and should start ML games in 2022. Logged 114.1 IP between High A, AA, and the AFL in 2021, allowing just 6 HRs, 130 Ks, 18(!!) BBs, and strong run prevention and FIP numbers. He utterly dominated the low minors, didn't allow a HR over 37.1 IP between RK and A+ with a 49/3 K:BB and lots of groundballs. While not a high profile NCAA pitcher, had an excellent career in a variety of roles for a CWS contender with back to back conference championships. Highlights include allowing just 12 HRs in 200+ innings, 171 Hs, a 17% K-BB% over 96.1 IP after moving to the rotation in 2019, 23 career wins (sure why not). Combined for 112.1 IP, 116 Ks, 22 BBs, 8 HRs, 93 Hs, and solid other stuff in 2019 between NCAA, Rk, and Low A. This is all to show that Kilian's been a strong performer for a while now, last year was most a bigger breakout than the previous run. He's got all his health, a prototypical SP frame at a physical 6'3"/6'4" 205+, a variety of fastballs with command (cutter, sinker, four seam in that order), a quality and improved curveball in the low 80s, and a developing changeup, and has taken extremely well to pro coaching. He's not the #1 ace of The Future, but there's a first division track on a near ML ready player. Maybe it's the cutter/curve combo but the SP name that comes to mind is Doug Fister :dontknow:

3: Jordan Wicks LHSP

Generally considered the top LHSP available in the 2021 draft, best changeup and present command too, after setting some school records during a 3-year run for Kansas State. Opened with a solid true freshman season, took a huge leap forward between conference and summer league play (NWDS, only 46 IP btw the two) during a pandemic shortened 2020, and closed out with a strong campaign in a high offense Big 12 + a passable pro debut in South Bend. The calling card is command of a high whiff and utility changeup. After that he’s a mix of quality size and present physicality (say 6’2”/6’3” 215+), durability, some projection, solid velocity and multiple fastballs (late offseason update: dropped the 4 seam, going sinker and cutter), some command, some control. The breaking stuff needs work and the fastballs can be firmed up, there were some tweets of offseason work on a higher spin curveball, but even still there’s obvious SP tools here. MLB.com has him 91-97, tightening that up to sitting 93-94 with opportune 95-97s seems ideal. Ideally he finishes the year in the upper minors if not the MLs, compares very well to Brady Singer as a prospect

4: Richard Gallardo RHSP

You don't even see this guy in top 30s for this org, insane. What tends to get him dismissed, even beyond seemingly (and tbf probably) unexciting stats on the surface, is a lack of power most demonstrated by a dearth of whiffs and too much pulled contact. I don't even disagree with the thinking, if he's still running 2021 velocity as a RHSP (91-97) moving forward then the future is more KBO than MLB. That said, there's no reason to think Gallardo has maxed out his velocity. The league as a whole can coach up velocity now, he's set new peaks ever year since signing, finished strong in 2021 (most 93-96, found 97), actually gets into games to build and condition the arm and body, was hitting 93 at 16 (an elite mark), has command which was noted as an amateur, is healthy, has the frame (should come in 6'2"/6'3" 210+), athleticism, and an in house reputation as a gym rat. Velocity would go a long way towards closing the holes in a potentially extremely well rounded game, would improve a breaking ball and changeup that flash at least above average but lack oomph and separation respectively...The top ranked SP prospect for the 2018 7/2 signing period, Gallardo's delivered the org's best age relative to league and level performance in the org in 2021 at Myrtle Beach. This was a back to back as his age 17 in a high offense AZL was also strong, enough to be promoted to close 2019. Was among the youngest pitchers to spend all year on a full season roster (note: Joey Estes, acquired by the A's in the Olson trade, was another). While only his 90 and change innings finished among the Low A East’s top 10, impressive in itself given everyone just missed 2020 and giving him the highest workload ceiling among SP prospects in the org entering 2022, Gallardo flashed a variety of SP skills across the board. In particular the GB% and BB% rates (particularly in combo with the workload, also he did similar stuff in 2019) were much better than league average, the batted ball in general is strong with probably some potential to convert some pop ups into Ks. Matt Dorey spoke about building up a 200+ inning SP from the ground up very young, even if it's horsefeathers the org probably thinks along these lines, and it's just not a coincidence they signed a top ranked amateur and have pushed him harder than the field so far to success. May benefit greatly from the FO shift, has alot of Cleveland-y SP prospect traits as a command and control over power guy with a shot to add power. On the shortlist for highest overall ceiling in the org entering 2022, a potential rotation anchor. Consider that he's half a decade younger than Kilian, not so far behind, flashes similar skills with a slightly different approach (four seam/sinker over cutter/sinker). One of a few youths with a wide open shot at the upper minors this year or next at 20 or 21

5: Ed Howard SS

I totally get looking at 2021 as catastrophic, duh, but yeah still strongly suspect this may not be the case. He's still the highest pedigree prospect in the org with a true carrying skill in the defense, the tools and demonstrated aptitude to soon offer high value, in demand skills on both sides of the ball. Playing a sound SS is a safe if uncommon path to a couple ML WAR/yr while it lasts, nobody in the org and few in the minors have a better chance of doing the job than Howard. It's a foundational skill that made and still makes his path to the bigs easier, faster, and safer than the field. This is to say that Howard is *still* the most likely of the teen position players who might be here instead to even reach the MLs. While the overall offense was ugly in 2021 the 326 PA season line was buried early but improved significantly as reps piled up. There's a potential big silver lining in that he basically walked into full season ball cold (no official/sanctioned games since summer 2019) as a teenager and showed aptitude for getting the ball into the air. There's still too many GBs, but Howard's 50% and 1.12 GO/AO outpaced all the teens that might be here except for Caissie and Triantos, all the more impressive considering he both took the most PAs and at the highest level. Also in play for growth here is outstanding bat speed (he was 98th-99th% in a loaded 2020 HS class) and probably the best overall frame in the system featuring size (probably coming in 6'3"/6'4" 200+), health, present strength with room to add, and plenty of reps built twitch. There are Tulo-esque tools here, tons of aptitude, and still the potential to course correct and arrive much sooner than expected...So more or less I see him as the same player from 2020-2021 only have more confidence there's power and the defense can keep him moving

6: Pete Crow-Armstrong CF

Very similar foundation to Howard in that his combo of defense, frame (6’2”ish on his way to 200+ guy), offensive tools, and long amateur track record against top competition was leading down big paths before pandemic 2020. He was more or less on the cusp of being tiered with like an Andrew McCutchen coming out of HS, a potential 5 tool “true” CF prospect with leadoff and sneaky power potential. The pandemic shifted perceptions to a more conservative high floor and glove first profile with general questions about an offensive game not built around elite power. The delayed pro debut ended after 35 PAs in full season A ball to a non-throwing shoulder injury that required surgery. Shoulder injuries are still scary, but also there’s been a ton of progress with ML results, he’s very young, and frankly it’s also hard to ignore where Crow-Armstrong comes from in regards to healthcare and rehab on a wider scale. Harvard-Westlake’s baseball program has multiple pre-injured first round pick ML stars around the league and offers early access to resources and processes most players don’t see until joining a top NCAA program or MLB org. He could join Howard and Gallardo in SB if the Cubs remain aggressive, 2021 assignments were so aggressive that none would be killed by MB unless they suck, all have a more or less wide-open opportunity to jump to the upper minors at 20 should a breakout or three occur. There’s potential for a full-time defensive CF capable of leading off with high average and OBP, enough all around power, and impactful baserunning. Contact skills give him a shot to be a rare LHH without big splits vs LHP. Too many groundballs during his debut even if speed is a part of the offensive game

7: Owen Cassie LF/DH

Made for an appealing amateur as a Canadian HS player by being one of the youngest hitters in the 2020 draft with a 6’4” ~200 frame featuring present physicality as well as projection. Had experience in int’l competition for the Canadian junior national team, committed to perennial CWS contender Michigan. Got drafted in the 2nd, put onto the Padres’ pandemic 60, and then traded for Darvish. Eventually debuted in the new ACL and showed more polish on offense than any of the Rk level youths. He dominated the ACL over 136 PAs then held his own on offense over a 90 PA callup to full season A ball. Had the most complete batted ball profile among the teens even through the callup, showed all fields power potential and hasn't even really tapped into pulling the ball. There’s some swing and miss, standard L v L issues, and the defense really needs work, but the power potential with a shot to hit seems real enough for where this system is at. He’ll play half of this season at 19 in A ball before turning 20 in July. Yet another youth with an open lane to the upper minors by 20/21, the goal in 2022 is to line up an OD AA assignment for 2023. Could be a lineup anchor, maybe ideally for the Cubs he helps land Soto

8: Cristian Hernandez SS/3B

The only one of these guys with a fairly straight path to being a top 10 overall prospect in the game. The Cubs didn't really put him in a position to hurt this in 2021, granted the pandemic played a huge part all around in merely an age and experience appropriate assignment in the DSL, and he held serve. Despite a near 57% GB rate still finished top 5 among 17 YO DSL hitters in HRs. Easily did the basic basics on offense at the level with an IsoSLG well above league and K rate well below as a big SS in an age and experience appropriate league. 6’3”/6’4” probably 200ish by now at just 18, looks capable of holding 215+# while playing two ways in the infield with all the shots at SS. Made his name more in a workout setting than game so there was and is some general stiffness, maybe most reflected in the 19(!) errors at SS and GB rate, that can more or less mostly can be repped out thanks to youth and resources. Arm is the leading tool on defense. Very raw player even on offense, I don't see any real shot at an OD full season assignment, but enters 2022 as the highest ceiling of the bat first teens with the most two-way potential. The frame reminds me of Josh Donaldson. 2022 may offer some adversity coming stateside. The hype is real enough on offense, he just needs to get stronger and more experience. Early 2022 stuff suggests a focus on strengthening the lower body, a little more filled out, which should help both his offense and agility on defense. The goal here is to keep that top 10 track and ideally either explode up to the MLs as a superstar in the next two years or headline a Soto package.

9: DJ Herz LHP

Played 3 sports in HS including basketball and starting QB on the football team. This helped build a loose, projectable frame with some present physicality that outpaced his relative inexperience as Right now, there’s a wide band (say 91-97) that can tighten up to more 93-95 and maybe add a couple ticks up top. Maxing velocity doesn’t seem to have been the focus for 2021, rather developing the delivery, arm strength, and individual pitches. He most took to a relatively high spin Vulcan grip changeup, also added a two seam and worked on finding a spin or two. The changeup was the biggest leap forward this year in general maybe: can get it to 2300-2400 rpm with a couple “Devin Williams-ish” 2500s according to an interview with David Laurila at FanGraphss, that gets whiffs against LHH and RHHs. He is aggressive up in the zone with the fastballs, got swings and misses there. He more or less rode those three pitches and a tough look to 131 Ks and 42 Hs allowed in 81.1 IP mostly in A and some A+. There are some fastball command issues that give some potential for bigger issues working inside on RHHs in a high-volume starting role moving forward, at least early in the career, particularly without elite velocity and better breaking stuff. The tools for an impact pitcher in a variety of roles are there, liken him to Michael Lorenzen in that regard, showed some good aptitude on the mound as most a former HS athlete turned pro pitcher. The delivery is unconventional but opens more doors than closes these days, especially with a healthy left arm capable of missing bats

10: Drew Gray LHSP

Coming out of one of the more competitive and higher profile HS programs (IMG) in the country as a 3rd round pick, the 6’3” 195-205ish Gray was draftable as a CF/OF with some bat speed and recruited as a two-way player for perennial CWS contender Arkansas. Even that general profile would immediately give him first round potential for 2024 had he made it to campus. The MiLb debut was short, 4 innings, but all-around dominant with 9 Ks in 16 BF with weak, groundball contact in between. The pitch mix and approach are all very hip too: high spin, north/south, multiple breaking balls and fastballs, and approach angle/VAA stuff mixed in. Gray doesn’t turn 19 until the season starts, could/should open up with a starting job at Myrtle Beach, and has a chance to be louder than Gallardo at the level. The overall profile probably makes him the most prototypical pitching prospect in the system, one who can fly up all kinds of prospect rankings in 2022. The ceiling’s a first division power lefty starting pitcher, granted that’s an extremely narrow path. Look for him to add a changeup or splitter (UPDATE: TJ, booo, but a profile that can do really well in the prospect meta that loves pre-injured pitchers plenty...alls I'm asking for is someone that can help trade for Trevor Rogers - the non-Soto I would like to trade for - in a couple years)

Why some players didn't make such a prestigious list (no order), mostly are in the 10-20 range for me:

Alcantara - Repeated the Rk level in 2021, lots of groundball contact, maybe a little bit that Longenhagen's been saying this guy was better than Davis since before the pandemic meanwhile the latter is ML ready and the former will be in A ball, I see more of a Marisnick type player. Will spend 2022 in MB
Triantos - Defense, can get stronger obviously but lacks frame based projection, game power outpaces raw, not a patient hitter, I lean more David Bote than Wright, gets alot of credit for reclassifying but being a 19 YO 6' 3B/2B HS prospect for 2022 would not appeal to most models enough to go in the second. Despite all this, might move fast and is ready for full season ball offensively
Amaya - Not enough power, I really do think he can have a David Ross-esque career
Preciado - Physically is a long ways off, needs to get much stronger and hit fewer GBs, might repeat the ACL, finished injured
Velazquez - Has starter potential but could take a while, hopefully gets a chance to get some ML feedback this year maybe hit a few HRs
Made - Way too many groundballs and a near 10:1 K/BB, sub-6 modern SSs definitely still happen but can't think of many that are top of the league players, defense at SS, some contact, and age give him alot of room to work but the ceiling seems more Orlando Cabrera tier
Franklin - Excellent frame, interesting changeup, obvious room for velocity gains, but yeah it's kind of key for a pitcher to throw innings esp if you want a TOR guy, nothing particularly interesting about his performances so far

Randoms I notice or want to like or see hope for or something:

Christian Franklin CF - The 2017-2021 teams were dying for better defense and a more consistent approach out of the CFs on the roster, never got it. Hit too many groundballs during his debut but had an excellent college career for powerhouse Arkansas in the SEC, showed some patience and power on offense, seemed to be on his way to a big breakout season in 2020. Defense and speed are the carrying tools, think Manuel Margot and his role with the Rays. I can't not mention Alex Canario too, quality approach and seems to have the defensive tools to cover all 3 OF spots

Joe Nahas RHP - Got beat up starting games at High A and AA but youth sneaks up on you, 22 for the 2022 season and posted a 14% K-BB in 2021. A move to relief full time could help the stuff play up, offers a little different look coming straight over the top

Ryan Jensen RHP - Really had good momentum before the pandemic but couldn't make the 60. Best raw arm strength in the system still with a wider pitch mix entering 2022 than 2021, jacked and healthy, might benefit from the FO shift, seems like a reliever but it's hard not to like how he's physically held up with that kind of velocity on both a sinker and four seam

Yohendrick Pinango LF - High contact lefty bats don't seem to be all that common these days, needs to get physically stronger and stop hitting GBs

Alfonso Rivas 1B - Seems like a potentially competent post-Rizzo starter until they find a whale. Another one who hits too many GBs and needs to find some power, but otherwise a very productive hitter between NCAA and MiLB with a .404 OBP in over 2000 PAs across all levels. Excellent defensive 1B if he can hold a job offensively

Parker Chavers CF - DNP in 2021 due to injury but a very good college hitter at Coast Carolina, can play 3 OF spots defensively.

Ronnier Quintero C - One of 3 well regarded teenaged LHH catchers brought in since 2019, hoping for one prospect in the bunch. Doesn't turn 20 until November, time is more or less on his side right now, but yea time to get into some games. Only took 59 PAs last year as an 18 YO catcher in the ACL, didn't do much though only Harry Ford (booo Mariners) matched his pace for HRs among 18 YOs at the position and level. Defense and frame are years off, 2021 wasn't really pretty for either

Pablo Aliendo C - A better athlete than Amaya, saw a handful of innings at 3B and one at SS in 2021, with some aptitude and approach at the plate. Not exactly Austin Barnes-esque versatility but I wouldn't mind if the Cubs tried to stretch it this year. Bryce Windham, a LHH too, has shown even more versatility, is one of the more athletic guys in the system, makes a ton of contact at the plate plus owns a .423 OBP between NCAA and MiLB over 1000+ PAs

Burl Carraway LHRP - Definitely down on him vs. 2020-2021. Honestly the 3 HRs in 31 IP at SB bother me more than the BBs do. He's expanded the pitch mix beyond fastball/curve, added at least a slider. Similar to Jensen there's impressive arm strength (I mean he did throw enough pitches to walk 46 guys in 35 IP without hurting himself) on a well regarded, productive NCAA pitcher who clearly had momentum heading into the pandemic...

Chase Strumpf Hitter - Quietly owns a .277/.388/.463 line in over 1600 PAs between MiLB and NCAA, gets the ball in the air, can occupy multiple positions but may not do such a good job defending them

Koen Moreno RHSP - No idea what happened in 2021 but interesting combo of dims and athleticism, another Cleveland-y type of HS P with lots of athleticism, a very active delivery, and projection but not yet a power guy if ever. Dominic Hambley has some interesting physicality, 19 for 2022, at 6'2"/6'3" 215+
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Tue Apr 12, 2022 4:14 pm



This is really good. I like Brozdowski's approach to things, but even if you don't the proprietary statcast data he's able to get on guys in the org is worth the read.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue Apr 12, 2022 5:43 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/LanceBroz/status/1513882185379500032?t=_yuZ3hZEI2ES8U5ZUnbYdQ&s=19

This is really good. I like Brozdowski's approach to things, but even if you don't the proprietary statcast data he's able to get on guys in the org is worth the read.


Wow. That was some good stuff. I would be lying if I said I was expecting that when I opened up a Marquee article.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Apr 12, 2022 7:09 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/LanceBroz/status/1513882185379500032?t=_yuZ3hZEI2ES8U5ZUnbYdQ&s=19

This is really good. I like Brozdowski's approach to things, but even if you don't the proprietary statcast data he's able to get on guys in the org is worth the read.


Wow. That was some good stuff. I would be lying if I said I was expecting that when I opened up a Marquee article.


Brozdowski is fantastic. I can’t imagine he lasts long at Marquee and will soon be at a major publication.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Thu Apr 14, 2022 2:04 am

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/wednesday-p ... 4-13-2022/

Just a couple quick tweaks on The Board to tell you about here. Cubs center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong moves from the 45 FV tier to the 45+ FV tier just as an indication that he might break out. I think the changes he has made to his swing give him a better chance of getting on top of pitches in the zone’s upper third. Already a warlock in center, PCA had profiled as a glove-first center fielder akin to the Almora/Bradley/Pillar types, but if he can actually hit, he’ll have a bigger impact than that group.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed May 18, 2022 3:05 pm

BA updated their top 100:

14. Brennen Davis (up from 15)
30. Seiya Suzuki (up from 31)
78. Cristian Hernández (up from 79)
95. Pete Crow-Armstrong (up from 96)

If I’m not mistaken, all they did was move everyone up 1 when Julio Rodríguez graduated.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed May 18, 2022 3:46 pm

BA also updated their Cubs top 30:

1. Brennen Davis
2. Seiya Suzuki
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong
4. Cristian Hernández
5. Caleb Kilian
6. Jordan Wicks
7. Kevin Alcántara
8. Brailyn Márquez
9. Owen Caissie
10. DJ Herz
11. Yohendrick Piñango
12. James Triantos
13. Miguel Amaya
14. Kevin Made
15. Nelson Velázquez
16. Alfonso Rivas
17. Christopher Morel
18. Alexander Canario
19. Ryan Jensen
20. Ed Howard
21. Kohl Franklin
22. Chase Strumpf
23. Riley Thompson
24. Reggie Preciado
25. Moises Ballesteros
26. Yeison Santana
27. Jordan Nwogu
28. Manuel Rodríguez
29. Drew Gray
30. Ben Leeper

Rivas and Rodríguez no longer qualify based on service time ROY rules but BA ignores those for their rankings.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tryptamine » Wed May 18, 2022 4:51 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA also updated their Cubs top 30:

1. Brennen Davis
2. Seiya Suzuki
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong
4. Cristian Hernández
5. Caleb Kilian
6. Jordan Wicks
7. Kevin Alcántara
8. Brailyn Márquez
9. Owen Caissie
10. DJ Herz
11. Yohendrick Piñango
12. James Triantos
13. Miguel Amaya
14. Kevin Made
15. Nelson Velázquez
16. Alfonso Rivas
17. Christopher Morel
18. Alexander Canario
19. Ryan Jensen
20. Ed Howard
21. Kohl Franklin
22. Chase Strumpf
23. Riley Thompson
24. Reggie Preciado
25. Moises Ballesteros
26. Yeison Santana
27. Jordan Nwogu
28. Manuel Rodríguez
29. Drew Gray
30. Ben Leeper

Rivas and Rodríguez no longer qualify based on service time ROY rules but BA ignores those for their rankings.


Wow, they really don't like Preciado.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed May 18, 2022 6:01 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA also updated their Cubs top 30:

1. Brennen Davis
2. Seiya Suzuki
3. Pete Crow-Armstrong
4. Cristian Hernández
5. Caleb Kilian
6. Jordan Wicks
7. Kevin Alcántara
8. Brailyn Márquez
9. Owen Caissie
10. DJ Herz
11. Yohendrick Piñango
12. James Triantos
13. Miguel Amaya
14. Kevin Made
15. Nelson Velázquez
16. Alfonso Rivas
17. Christopher Morel
18. Alexander Canario
19. Ryan Jensen
20. Ed Howard
21. Kohl Franklin
22. Chase Strumpf
23. Riley Thompson
24. Reggie Preciado
25. Moises Ballesteros
26. Yeison Santana
27. Jordan Nwogu
28. Manuel Rodríguez
29. Drew Gray
30. Ben Leeper

Rivas and Rodríguez no longer qualify based on service time ROY rules but BA ignores those for their rankings.


Wow, they really don't like Preciado.


He was their biggest faller from the offseason lists. Fell from 14 to 24. Morel (29 to 17) and Rivas (26 to 16) were the biggest risers.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 19, 2022 2:46 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA updated their top 100:

14. Brennen Davis (up from 15)
30. Seiya Suzuki (up from 31)
78. Cristian Hernández (up from 79)
95. Pete Crow-Armstrong (up from 96)

If I’m not mistaken, all they did was move everyone up 1 when Julio Rodríguez graduated.


A real update today.

13. Brennen
29. Seiya
77. PCA
78. Cristian
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 02, 2022 3:08 pm



Two top 50 prospects, 4 in the top 100.

41. Brennen (previously 13)
48. PCA (77)
85. Cristian (78)
100. Kilian (NR)

Seiya graduated.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Jun 02, 2022 5:24 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/status/1532339006771429381?s=21&t=xV9S8gVqEX_cQngOPTuK_A

Two top 50 prospects, 4 in the top 100.

41. Brennen (previously 13)
48. PCA (77)
865. Cristian(78)
100. Kilian (NR)

Seiya graduated.


Yikes, is that normal for rankings to be so volatile? Davis started out terrible but we're talking 91 PA and he hasn't played for a month. Have his prospects gone down that much based on 4 weeks worth of games?

On the flip side, I get PCA's rise. We had almost no data on him coming into the season, so tearing up A ball at age 20 is eye opening
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tim » Thu Jun 02, 2022 5:50 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/status/1532339006771429381?s=21&t=xV9S8gVqEX_cQngOPTuK_A

Two top 50 prospects, 4 in the top 100.

41. Brennen (previously 13)
48. PCA (77)
865. Cristian(78)
100. Kilian (NR)

Seiya graduated.


Yikes, is that normal for rankings to be so volatile? Davis started out terrible but we're talking 91 PA and he hasn't played for a month. Have his prospects gone down that much based on 4 weeks worth of games?

On the flip side, I get PCA's rise. We had almost no data on him coming into the season, so tearing up A ball at age 20 is eye opening

I think Christian's drop down to 865 is even more dramatic.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:06 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/jjcoop36/status/1532339006771429381?s=21&t=xV9S8gVqEX_cQngOPTuK_A

Two top 50 prospects, 4 in the top 100.

41. Brennen (previously 13)
48. PCA (77)
865. Cristian(78)
100. Kilian (NR)

Seiya graduated.


Yikes, is that normal for rankings to be so volatile? Davis started out terrible but we're talking 91 PA and he hasn't played for a month. Have his prospects gone down that much based on 4 weeks worth of games?

On the flip side, I get PCA's rise. We had almost no data on him coming into the season, so tearing up A ball at age 20 is eye opening


I think it’s justifiable Davis fell a bit (he also was probably not the actual 13th best prospect) but if some of his struggles were because he was playing through the back injury, I personally wouldn’t have dropped him that much.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tim » Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:10 pm

Given the number of injuries he's had, there may also be some discounting on the "he can't stay healthy" logic.

Plus, the performance in those 91 at bats really was horrible.
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