2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Aug 10, 2022 11:42 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
JeffH wrote:Any outfit that ranks Chase Strumpf over Ed Howard as a prospect should be immediately disbanded.


What, you don't like the 24 year old striking out 35% of the time in AA?


Isn’t 24 pretty much normal for AA if not a bit younger than average?
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tryptamine » Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:36 am

TruffleShuffle wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
JeffH wrote:Any outfit that ranks Chase Strumpf over Ed Howard as a prospect should be immediately disbanded.


What, you don't like the 24 year old striking out 35% of the time in AA?


Isn’t 24 pretty much normal for AA if not a bit younger than average?


Perhaps as a league average, but it's not for real prospects
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:25 am

TruffleShuffle wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
JeffH wrote:Any outfit that ranks Chase Strumpf over Ed Howard as a prospect should be immediately disbanded.


What, you don't like the 24 year old striking out 35% of the time in AA?


Isn’t 24 pretty much normal for AA if not a bit younger than average?


24 is average for AA hitters and, surprisingly, the average age is in line with pre-pandemic, despite the lost 2020 minor league season: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories ... n/?amphtml
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:31 pm

Prospects Live midseason top 100: https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects ... -prospects

32. Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs
The Good: PCA had some people running for the hills due to his shoulder injury in 2021 and then the subsequent trade to the Cubs. Then came the rumors of a re-worked swing and there was some cause for concern. Well those people are quiet now. We already knew he was a standout on the defensive side of the ball and a pest on the bases but the power gains in 2021 (pre-injury) have also proven to be real. A true five tool player.
The Bad: He’s very aggressive in the box, and will often swing at the first fastball in the zone that he sees. It led to some struggles early in his High-A career but he’s since righted the ship and is back to being himself.

48. Brennen Davis, OF, Chicago Cubs
The Good: Davis is one of the few legitimate five-tool prospects in the upper minors. He has big bat speed and plus raw power with remaining projection. He’s a present plus runner who could potentially be an above-average defender in any outfield position, but his plus arm strength profiles in right field. He has All-Star upside.
The Bad: Davis has missed most of 2022 with an injured back, something that potentially explains his early season struggles. It’s also an injury that could continue to plague him. Davis has struggled with strikeouts over the last two seasons, something that is attributable to his long levers and periodic bouts with the timing of his swing. Although his raw tools aren’t in doubt, he may simply never maximize his hit tool, and that brings the entire package down.

55. Kevin Alcantara, OF, Chicago Cubs
The Good: Alcantara possesses one of the best and most projectable bodies in the entire minor leagues, and with that comes serious offensive potential. He has significant power potential that is beginning to show up during games. He’s an above-average runner in the grass and has a shot to stick in center field, although his above-average arm would also profile in right.
The Bad: Alcantara is long-levered and has difficulty covering the inside of the plate. Pitch recognition is still a work-in-progress, and all of those issues have led to a high strikeout rate as he’s moved up the ladder. His hit tool may not project better than below-average at peak maturity.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:38 pm

Bertz wrote:It sounds like he basically just updated his top 100 and added in '22 draftees to his spreadsheet, not especially surprising that there's little movement.

I'd guess when we get to the offseason and these get a little more care, you'll see the Cubs consistently in the 5-10 range. 3rd is pretty clearly too rich for an org that doesn't have a top 10 prospect, but like they're clearly on much better footing than the Rockies and A's.


Hrubes20 wrote:That's obviously too low, just like #3 is too high. Average them out to the 10th best system and you are probably getting in the ballpark.


FCT had a good thread about how close the two rankings really are:





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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:45 pm

Pedro continues to get a lot of love this week:



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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby JeffH » Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:34 pm

I regret the Cubs couldn't acquire Frasso at the deadline.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Aug 13, 2022 12:34 am

I'm not not on the Pedro Ramirez wagon. I was a little conservative despite the very productive age 17 in the DSL as a switch hitter playing both MIF positions, Pedro Martinez flashbacks, but the updates on his defense already seem to push him past 2B only and overall less athletic Martinez. From there he's one of the org's more productive position players in age and experience appropriate settings the past couple years

The most interesting thing maybe was AZPhil was talking about giving up switch hitting. I'd prefer not, but also going LHH isn't the worst idea if he's more of a 2B/SS/IF than 2B/IF/SS on defense
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby UMFan83 » Tue Aug 16, 2022 4:24 pm

Kiley McDaniel's midseason top 50 has PCA at number 31 as the only Cub:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/ ... -prospects

31. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Cubs
Age: 20 | Level: High-A
PCA was known to scouts early in his high school career as a plus hitter and fielder in center who slowly added strength and power as he aged. Though he was out for the year with shoulder surgery, PCA was the return for last year's ill-fated Mets rental of Javier Baez. He returned to the field this year, made a swing tweak and now looks to be at least a solid everyday player, if not more.


He does mention that Brennen Davis is the next best Cubs prospect, and that Alcantara falls into that 75-125 range, so you can assume Davis is 50-75 in his rankings (he was 28th in his pre-season rankings)
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tryptamine » Tue Aug 16, 2022 4:42 pm

UMFan83 wrote:Kiley McDaniel's midseason top 50 has PCA at number 31 as the only Cub:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/ ... -prospects

31. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Cubs
Age: 20 | Level: High-A
PCA was known to scouts early in his high school career as a plus hitter and fielder in center who slowly added strength and power as he aged. Though he was out for the year with shoulder surgery, PCA was the return for last year's ill-fated Mets rental of Javier Baez. He returned to the field this year, made a swing tweak and now looks to be at least a solid everyday player, if not more.


He does mention that Brennen Davis is the next best Cubs prospect, and that Alcantara falls into that 75-125 range, so you can assume Davis is 50-75 in his rankings (he was 28th in his pre-season rankings)


People are just absurdly overreacting to injury related underperformance.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Tue Aug 16, 2022 4:48 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
UMFan83 wrote:Kiley McDaniel's midseason top 50 has PCA at number 31 as the only Cub:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/ ... -prospects

31. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Cubs
Age: 20 | Level: High-A
PCA was known to scouts early in his high school career as a plus hitter and fielder in center who slowly added strength and power as he aged. Though he was out for the year with shoulder surgery, PCA was the return for last year's ill-fated Mets rental of Javier Baez. He returned to the field this year, made a swing tweak and now looks to be at least a solid everyday player, if not more.


He does mention that Brennen Davis is the next best Cubs prospect, and that Alcantara falls into that 75-125 range, so you can assume Davis is 50-75 in his rankings (he was 28th in his pre-season rankings)


People are just absurdly overreacting to injury related underperformance.


Seems weird to me to concurrently hold the line on Grayson Rodriguez. We've seen with Adbert that lat injuries are no joke and no guarantee to be a one-off
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Aug 16, 2022 4:56 pm

Tbf there’s, to put it lightly, some gap in talent and MiLB performance btw an Alzolay tier prospect and Rodriguez one. That said, a little funny to ding Davis for an injury and replace him with a guy who missed all of 2021 to a worse injury

Needless to say, I don’t buy that Crow-Armstrong is a better prospect than Davis either
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Aug 17, 2022 4:05 am

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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Aug 17, 2022 11:01 am

i find it a bit baffling that perlaza is being ranked behind third round draft picks like paciolla and gray who basically haven't played professionally and didn't get huge bonuses. it's not like this year has come out of nowhere, he was very good last season too.

i also think that triantos is pretty overrated.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Wed Aug 17, 2022 11:09 am

I feel like that's too low on Caissie and Kilian, but I get it. Good list overall, interested to sit down and read the blurbs.

Strumpf though, that's the biggest headscratcher. There's a reason he's coming up on 700 PAs at AA and it's not that a good one. I haven't put pen to paper on a list but I feel like I'd probably not get to him until 40 something?
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby cincycub31 » Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:17 pm

Looking over Strumpf's minor league career...was he rushed to AA too quickly? His overall 0.851 OPS this year isn't bad, maybe an adjustment to his approach would help cut down on the Ks. Not ready to give up on him yet, but yeah, I would probably have him in the 30-40 range. On another note - I would rather see what Strumpf, Slaughter and Weber can do at AAA and let Quiroz, Giambrone and Sepulveda go.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:23 pm

I agree with Davis being #2, more 1B, but not for Crow-Armstrong. In general the thing I agree with most, by far, is having Ferris firmly in the top 10. I have Ferris over Horton, alot to like but not my style with the TJ and 8 HRs allowed in 5change IP

Ben Brown’s not egregious I guess but feels like SNTS over Kilian

Too big a drop for Kilian? He’s still got outstanding K, GB, and HR numbers, plus the velocity’s up. That’s potential closer material and starting’s not off the table
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Aug 17, 2022 1:40 pm

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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tryptamine » Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:20 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/miller_milb/status/1559870202183139330?s=21&t=Vl_dAG9aXCsUdTMs5koqZA


I think this is pretty accurate. Somewhere in the 7-10 range. FG has them too high, but Logenhagen has them way way too low.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Hrubes20 » Wed Aug 17, 2022 2:40 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/miller_milb/status/1559870202183139330?s=21&t=Vl_dAG9aXCsUdTMs5koqZA


I think this is pretty accurate. Somewhere in the 7-10 range. FG has them too high, but Logenhagen has them way way too low.


Longenhagen is at FG and ranks them too high. You're thinking of Kiley McDaniel at ESPN who has them ranked too low.

I agree that 9 feels about right, IMO.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tryptamine » Wed Aug 17, 2022 5:02 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:https://twitter.com/miller_milb/status/1559870202183139330?s=21&t=Vl_dAG9aXCsUdTMs5koqZA


I think this is pretty accurate. Somewhere in the 7-10 range. FG has them too high, but Logenhagen has them way way too low.


Longenhagen is at FG and ranks them too high. You're thinking of Kiley McDaniel at ESPN who has them ranked too low.

I agree that 9 feels about right, IMO.


Yup, my mistake.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby SpongeWorthy » Wed Aug 17, 2022 10:17 pm

the dodgers win 150 horsefeathers games a year, the deepest pockets, and have 4 top 50 prospects per mcdaniel

good lord
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Aug 17, 2022 10:42 pm

SpongeWorthy wrote:the dodgers win 150 horsefeathers games a year, the deepest pockets, and have 4 top 50 prospects per mcdaniel

good lord


yeah i knew it was going to be bad news when friedman left tampa to go to the dodgers. everything was okay with the dodgers' massive resources when they were being run by a moron (ned coletti), but friedman might be the best executive in the game, and it was only a matter of time before the dodgers became a powerhouse at all levels of the organisation.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby SpongeWorthy » Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:22 am

TruffleShuffle wrote:
SpongeWorthy wrote:the dodgers win 150 horsefeathers games a year, the deepest pockets, and have 4 top 50 prospects per mcdaniel

good lord


yeah i knew it was going to be bad news when friedman left tampa to go to the dodgers. everything was okay with the dodgers' massive resources when they were being run by a moron (ned coletti), but friedman might be the best executive in the game, and it was only a matter of time before the dodgers became a powerhouse at all levels of the organisation.

but theo said waves upon waves and 95 wins a year in perpetuity
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TruffleShuffle » Thu Aug 18, 2022 6:13 am

SpongeWorthy wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:
SpongeWorthy wrote:the dodgers win 150 horsefeathers games a year, the deepest pockets, and have 4 top 50 prospects per mcdaniel

good lord


yeah i knew it was going to be bad news when friedman left tampa to go to the dodgers. everything was okay with the dodgers' massive resources when they were being run by a moron (ned coletti), but friedman might be the best executive in the game, and it was only a matter of time before the dodgers became a powerhouse at all levels of the organisation.

but theo said waves upon waves and 95 wins a year in perpetuity


the two things which kind of blew that up are (1) the cubs' ownership sucks ass whereas the dodgers' ownership gives them incredible financial resources to succeed, and (2) mlb instituting a cap on draft and international free agent spending almost immediately after theo moved to the cubs, which was the main way that theo was able to keep the red sox' farm system very good despite them drafting late almost every year.
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