2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:22 pm



Six other players have moved into the 50 FV, four of whom were anticipated coming into the season and two of whom weren’t. Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and Braves center fielder Michael Harris II have both made swing changes. PCA made his change in the offseason and has had time to generate a meaningful sample showing that it has indeed unlocked meaningful pull-power to go with his incredible center field defense. He now ranks among the other excellent up-the-middle defenders poised to make at least one-note offensive impact, in the 40-50 overall range of the list.


I was too aggressive ranking Cubs infielder Reginald Preciado and Yankees shortstop Alexander Vargas during their early Complex League days. Preciado’s breaking ball recognition issues are a big reason he’s punching out 40% of the time (a source of mine who warned me of this and reads the site is going to send me an “I told you so” text very shortly).


Cubs prospects ranked by FG now:

34. Brennen Davis
46. PCA
93. Kevin Alcántara
109. Owen Caissie
111. James Triantos
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:51 am

Pipeline updated their top 100.

30. Brennen Davis
69. Cristian Hernández
80. Pete Crow-Armstrong
99. Kevin Alcántara
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:25 pm



34. PCA
47. Davis
78. Hernández
82. Kilian
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:28 pm

Also here is our own Greg Zumach’s midseason top 30: https://northsidebound.com/2022/07/08/g ... t-ranking/

And the whole Northside Bound’s composite top 25: https://northsidebound.com/2022/07/11/n ... -rankings/
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Mon Jul 11, 2022 5:07 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:Also here is our own Greg Zumach’s midseason top 30: https://northsidebound.com/2022/07/08/g ... t-ranking/

And the whole Northside Bound’s composite top 25: https://northsidebound.com/2022/07/11/n ... -rankings/


I like Greg's rankings a lot. I'd probably swap Caissie and Herz, and bump each of Canario and Preciado up about 10 spots, but otherwise I don't see anything significant that I'd disagree on.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tryptamine » Tue Jul 12, 2022 3:42 pm

Fangraphs predraft farming rankings are out and they have the Cub farm 6th.

Other notables

PIT: 2
STL: 14
CIN: 17
MIL: 26
CHW: 29

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jul 12, 2022 4:09 pm

Tryptamine wrote:Fangraphs predraft farming rankings are out and they have the Cub farm 6th.

Other notables

PIT: 2
STL: 14
CIN: 17
MIL: 26
CHW: 29

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

So after the draft and presumably adding something(s) at the deadline we should have a top 3-5 system.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tryptamine » Tue Jul 12, 2022 4:17 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:Fangraphs predraft farming rankings are out and they have the Cub farm 6th.

Other notables

PIT: 2
STL: 14
CIN: 17
MIL: 26
CHW: 29

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

So after the draft and presumably adding something(s) at the deadline we should have a top 3-5 system.


After the return from Contreras+Robertson+7th pick, which has a good chance at being 2 top 100 type prospects, I'd say they're definitely top 5, but they still lack the star power of a farm like the Orioles.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jul 12, 2022 4:47 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:Fangraphs predraft farming rankings are out and they have the Cub farm 6th.

Other notables

PIT: 2
STL: 14
CIN: 17
MIL: 26
CHW: 29

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2022-in-season-prospect-list/farm-ranking?sort=-1,1&type=100&filter=&pos=&team=

So after the draft and presumably adding something(s) at the deadline we should have a top 3-5 system.


After the return from Contreras+Robertson+7th pick, which has a good chance at being 2 top 100 type prospects, I'd say they're definitely top 5, but they still lack the star power of a farm like the Orioles.

They have star power in Davis, PCA, Hernandez potentially with pick 7 and what they trade for and also have allegedly the best IFA signed for the next period. Plus enough stuff lurking around that could pop.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tryptamine » Tue Jul 12, 2022 4:59 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:So after the draft and presumably adding something(s) at the deadline we should have a top 3-5 system.


After the return from Contreras+Robertson+7th pick, which has a good chance at being 2 top 100 type prospects, I'd say they're definitely top 5, but they still lack the star power of a farm like the Orioles.

They have star power in Davis, PCA, Hernandez potentially with pick 7 and what they trade for and also have allegedly the best IFA signed for the next period. Plus enough stuff lurking around that could pop.


I meant on the Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez level. 60+ FV guys. They have a very large number of 45-55 guys, but none of the truly top tier prospects. On a side note, people are getting way to aggressive with how much they're bumping Brennan Davis back due to an injury, especially when we found out that the performance issues were caused by the injury.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:04 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
After the return from Contreras+Robertson+7th pick, which has a good chance at being 2 top 100 type prospects, I'd say they're definitely top 5, but they still lack the star power of a farm like the Orioles.

They have star power in Davis, PCA, Hernandez potentially with pick 7 and what they trade for and also have allegedly the best IFA signed for the next period. Plus enough stuff lurking around that could pop.


I meant on the Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez level. 60+ FV guys. They have a very large number of 45-55 guys, but none of the truly top tier prospects. On a side note, people are getting way to aggressive with how much they're bumping Brennan Davis back due to an injury, especially when we found out that the performance issues were caused by the injury.

The injury certainly can’t be ignored but it wasn’t as bad as they thought and it was a best possible outcome that should result in him being fine. It wasn’t a structural thing, it was a nerve hitting a bone iirc. The injury causing the poor performance is almost a good thing then, no? Also there’s reports he may be back this year already after they thought he’d miss it entirely.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tryptamine » Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:12 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:They have star power in Davis, PCA, Hernandez potentially with pick 7 and what they trade for and also have allegedly the best IFA signed for the next period. Plus enough stuff lurking around that could pop.


I meant on the Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez level. 60+ FV guys. They have a very large number of 45-55 guys, but none of the truly top tier prospects. On a side note, people are getting way to aggressive with how much they're bumping Brennan Davis back due to an injury, especially when we found out that the performance issues were caused by the injury.

The injury certainly can’t be ignored but it wasn’t as bad as they thought and it was a best possible outcome that should result in him being fine. It wasn’t a structural thing, it was a nerve hitting a bone iirc. The injury causing the poor performance is almost a good thing then, no? Also there’s reports he may be back this year already after they thought he’d miss it entirely.


That is what I meant. Davis is probably a 60 FV when healthy, I think he's being punished too heavily for the injury.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:20 pm

The usedul thing about FG's methodology is that while there's subjectivity to individual player grades, the farm ranks are objective and you can math them out pretty easily.

In the draft the Cubs are likely to get a 50 (first rounder), a 45 (second rounder), and a bunch of 40s. Everyone else will get an infusion of talent too, though because of the way the talent in this draft aligns you should expect only the top ~10 picks to be 50s and the top ~50 to be 45s. I'm not gonna do the math of assigning everyone's picks and valuing them out, but from the draft you'd expect the Cubs to leapfrog Boston just from quality of draft, though the Dbacks likely leapfrog the Cubs if they end up with Druw Jones, a guy a tier higher than anyone else in the draft. Net-net, the draft keeps the Cubs at 6th, but does increase the gap between them and most of the teams behind them and close some of the gap with Cleveland/Tampa.

You can do a similar exercise with the deadline. Re-iterating what I posted in the transactions forum a few weeks ago, you'd expect roughly the following in return for the Cubs' guys:

Happ (if dealt) - a 50, a 45, and two 40s (the Joey Gallo deal), or maybe just one 55
Contreras - a 50 and a 45
Robertson - a 45 and a 40
Martin - two 40s
The Rest - Likely just lottery tickets/filler, maybe Givens brings back another 40?

That's ~$40M in value if Jed doesn't deal Happ, another ~$40M if he does? With a Happ trade that'd give the Cubs the best farm in baseball pending how aggressive of a selloff the Pirates go through.

I do imagine the other outlets would keep the Cubs a tier lower in the 5-10 range. E.g. the Diamondbacks having a monster like Corbin Carroll and less depth is probably going to go further with BA and especially Keith Law.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Tue Jul 12, 2022 5:47 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
After the return from Contreras+Robertson+7th pick, which has a good chance at being 2 top 100 type prospects, I'd say they're definitely top 5, but they still lack the star power of a farm like the Orioles.

They have star power in Davis, PCA, Hernandez potentially with pick 7 and what they trade for and also have allegedly the best IFA signed for the next period. Plus enough stuff lurking around that could pop.


I meant on the Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez level. 60+ FV guys. They have a very large number of 45-55 guys, but none of the truly top tier prospects. On a side note, people are getting way to aggressive with how much they're bumping Brennan Davis back due to an injury, especially when we found out that the performance issues were caused by the injury.


FYI, Rutschman graduated.

I noticed a few guys on the FG rankings who have graduated or will graduate in the next few weeks that might change these rankings (including Morel and also Riley Greene, Oneil Cruz, Gabriel Moreno, Shane Baz, CJ Abrams and Alek Thomas).
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jul 13, 2022 4:08 pm

BA did a midseason update of the Cubs top 30:

1. PCA
2. Brennen Davis
3. Cristian Hernández
4. Caleb Kilian
5. Kevin Alcántara
6. Owen Caissie
7. Jordan Wicks
8. Kevin Made
9. DJ Herz
10. Nelson Velázquez
11. Miguel Amaya
12. James Triantos
13. Yohendrick Piñango
14. Ryan Jensen
15. Brailyn Márquez
16. Alexander Canario
17. Moises Ballesteros
18. Matt Mervis
19. Brandon Hughes
20. Cam Sanders
21. Darius Hill
22. Chase Strumpf
23. Kohl Franklin
24. Daniel Palencia
25. Yeison Santana
26. Bryce Ball
27. Ben Leeper
28. Jordan Nwogu
29. Manuel Rodríguez —> he’s actually lost his prospect eligibility but BA ignores service time
30. Ed Howard
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby JeffH » Wed Jul 13, 2022 4:12 pm

And BA continues its slow slide into irrelevance.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:19 pm

JeffH wrote:And BA continues its slow slide into irrelevance.


Their brain drain has been rough to see.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Wed Jul 13, 2022 6:28 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
JeffH wrote:And BA continues its slow slide into irrelevance.


Their brain drain has been rough to see.


It's weird because I still like and follow a lot of the individual writers, it feels honestly like they just have too small a team yet at the same time in order to drive traffic have started to CONSTANTLY churn out rankings. Quality has greatly suffered as a result.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Legendarystatus94 » Wed Jul 13, 2022 9:23 pm

JeffH wrote:And BA continues its slow slide into irrelevance.

What is your biggest issue with their updated rankings?
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby JeffH » Wed Jul 13, 2022 11:07 pm

Legendarystatus94 wrote:
JeffH wrote:And BA continues its slow slide into irrelevance.

What is your biggest issue with their updated rankings?


If we have eleven prospects better than James Triantos and twenty-nine better than Ed Howard, we should start making space in the trophy case.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jul 15, 2022 5:13 pm

Bryan Smith’s midseason rankings:

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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Jul 22, 2022 10:49 pm



Horton 7, Ferris 13, Birdsell 31, Mulé 33 and Paciolla 34 in the Cubs system.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby pitchcs » Sat Jul 23, 2022 12:06 am

JeffH wrote:
Legendarystatus94 wrote:
JeffH wrote:And BA continues its slow slide into irrelevance.

What is your biggest issue with their updated rankings?


If we have eleven prospects better than James Triantos and twenty-nine better than Ed Howard, we should start making space in the trophy case.


I don’t think it’s that egregious. Maybe Howard up some?
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:07 pm



Three Cubs!
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Aug 01, 2022 2:09 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1554100757825200130?t=Gg02dkgXsxVMLuF4D2JcWA&s=19

Three Cubs!


Unless it’s some weird mobile version, it was weird to see no numbers with any of the players ranked there.

ETA: Guess it’s a mobile thing. Looks okay on the laptop.
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