2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby sneakypower » Mon Aug 01, 2022 4:20 pm

28 Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs

Previous ranking: Unranked

Crow-Armstrong has one of the highest floors of anyone in the minors, because he’s going to be at least a 60 defender in center, probably 70, who’ll hit – everyone agrees he’s going to hit. More of a contact/speed hitter in high school, he’s changed his stance and swing since hurting his shoulder last spring, starting more upright and less open, getting into his legs more to get to more power for 13 homers this year between Low and High A. The Mets’ first-round pick from 2020 played in just six games in 2021, then went to the Cubs in the Javier Báez trade. This year marked his Cubs debut, and now he’s their best prospect, a true centerfielder with very strong hit/OBP skills who might end up surprising us all with 20-ish homers at his peak.

35 Brennen Davis, OF, Chicago Cubs


Previous ranking: No. 28

Davis had a rough start to the season and ended up having surgery on his lower back in early June, which was thought to be the end of his 2022, but there’s a chance we’ll see him before the minor-league season wraps up or in the Arizona Fall League. When healthy, he’s shown plus raw power and could end up a 25-30 homer guy who gets on base at an above-average clip and plays strong defense in right field. We may not see that version of Davis again until he gets a full offseason of rehab and rest.

60 Kevin Alcantara, OF, Chicago Cubs

Previous ranking: Unranked

Alcantara was the highest-ceiling prospect the Cubs got back in all of their trades last summer. The now 19-year-old outfielder has as projectable a body as you will ever see and surprising bat control for a still gangly 6-foot-6 kid. Alcantara is hitting .265/.353/.462 in Low A, playing half his games in the notorious pitchers’ park of Myrtle Beach, with a team-leading 12 homers and 16 doubles — tying for the team lead in that category. He’s played mostly center since Crow-Armstrong’s promotion, but Alcantara is going to put on at least another 20 pounds and I think he ends up in right. He has similar OBP/power upside to Emmanuel Rodriguez, although Alcantara’s power is still on the come.


'22 draftees: Collier 29 Termarr 30 Green 39 Lee 40 Holliday 42 Parada 47 Jung 58 Neto HM
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Aug 03, 2022 11:05 pm

The Cubs have the third best farm per FG:

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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:37 pm

So at this point heading into the winter, Davis and PCA seem to be consensus top 50 guys, while Alcantara and Hernandez are fairly consensus top 100s.

Triantos isn't having a bad year, but I do kind of imagine it's been light enough that he drops out of the borderline/honorable mention group he was in last winter.

Caissie was another borderline guy, but his much stronger season makes me think he'll make more lists than not. It's not an unimpeachable season but his stock *should* be up a good bit from last year.

I think the interesting cases will be Wicks and Canario. Wicks just seems like an easy 100 guy at this point, but I don't think I've heard much about him nationally. Canario is probably just a regular pretty good prospect who tranced out for a month, but I'm hoping to hear chatter from scouts that it was more than that.

Add to that the loads of pitching depth, and I think the farm will be top 10 universally, and where it lands within there depends on your stars vs. depth preferences.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby PriorFighter » Thu Aug 04, 2022 2:33 pm

I'm not a huge prospect guy, but looking at the rise of Matt Mervis it seems like he should be getting some top 100 love. OPSing .900+ with 23 homers across 3 levels. That seems like a 50 or 55 guy. His stats certainly stack up favorably with other power 1Bs in the Top 100. Is there something I'm missing here?
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby JeffH » Thu Aug 04, 2022 3:26 pm

PriorFighter wrote:I'm not a huge prospect guy, but looking at the rise of Matt Mervis it seems like he should be getting some top 100 love. OPSing .900+ with 23 homers across 3 levels. That seems like a 50 or 55 guy. His stats certainly stack up favorably with other power 1Bs in the Top 100. Is there something I'm missing here?


Not much pedigree and no defensive value.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:42 pm

PriorFighter wrote:I'm not a huge prospect guy, but looking at the rise of Matt Mervis it seems like he should be getting some top 100 love. OPSing .900+ with 23 homers across 3 levels. That seems like a 50 or 55 guy. His stats certainly stack up favorably with other power 1Bs in the Top 100. Is there something I'm missing here?


Even if everything else was perfect (you can prob ding defense, age a little), you’ll probably never see a 1B prospect with a single digit walk rate be considered a 50+
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby champaignchris » Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:46 pm

JeffH wrote:
PriorFighter wrote:I'm not a huge prospect guy, but looking at the rise of Matt Mervis it seems like he should be getting some top 100 love. OPSing .900+ with 23 homers across 3 levels. That seems like a 50 or 55 guy. His stats certainly stack up favorably with other power 1Bs in the Top 100. Is there something I'm missing here?


Not much pedigree and no defensive value.


Also relatively old for the level where he did the most damage. A 24 year old ripping up High A isn’t that big a deal. If he continues to hit in AAA, opinions of him will rise.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby PriorFighter » Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:51 pm

Okay, interesting. On a broader scale, I know different sites/orgs/evealuators have different scales, but is there a general guideline to how much weight is given to projectability/tools vs. actual performance? Would more weight be given to performance at AAA vs A-ball?
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CubinNY » Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:24 pm

PriorFighter wrote:I'm not a huge prospect guy, but looking at the rise of Matt Mervis it seems like he should be getting some top 100 love. OPSing .900+ with 23 homers across 3 levels. That seems like a 50 or 55 guy. His stats certainly stack up favorably with other power 1Bs in the Top 100. Is there something I'm missing here?

I don't put too much value on the FV stuff. It's not a science and putting numbers to opinions does not make an opinon better or more valid. Those numbers are just place markers, nothing more. Mervis has hit at every level. If he continues to hit...
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Aug 04, 2022 10:08 pm

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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:05 pm

BA has an updated top 100:

PCA - 49
Brennen Davis - 51

Cristian Hernández and Caleb Kilian fell out of the top 100. No Alcántara.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tryptamine » Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:07 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:BA has an updated top 100:

PCA - 49
Brennen Davis - 51

Cristian Hernández and Caleb Kilian fell out of the top 100. No Alcántara.


BA is so far behind the times, their coverage has just completely tanked over the last couple years.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:24 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:The Cubs have the third best farm per FG:



Meanwhile, Longenhagen’s old partner Kiley McDaniel has the Cubs with the 18th best farm: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/inside ... l-30-teams

18. Chicago Cubs - $215 million

Preseason Value - $183 million (19th)

The Cubs pulled a bit of a surprise by taking Oklahoma RHP Cade Horton with the seventh overall pick this year after he wasn't really a top-two-rounder a month before the draft. The rest of the notable players from their draft (LHP Jackson Ferris, SS Chris Paciolla, RHP Nazier Mule) were upside prep picks.

Chicago had a confusing deadline, holding some players widely expected to be traded but adding RHP Hayden Wesneski and LHP Ben Brown in smaller deals. The farm is starting to trickle into the big leagues, with 3B Chris Morel, 1B Alfonso Rivas and RHP Michael Rucker graduating, but the impact talent is still a year or two away, with CF Pete Crow-Armstrong and CF Kevin Alcantara the two big risers among the Top 100 brigade.


Teams from 16-19 are all within $10 million of the Cubs ranking.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:34 pm

It sounds like he basically just updated his top 100 and added in '22 draftees to his spreadsheet, not especially surprising that there's little movement.

I'd guess when we get to the offseason and these get a little more care, you'll see the Cubs consistently in the 5-10 range. 3rd is pretty clearly too rich for an org that doesn't have a top 10 prospect, but like they're clearly on much better footing than the Rockies and A's.
Last edited by Bertz on Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Hrubes20 » Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:37 pm

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:The Cubs have the third best farm per FG:



Meanwhile, Longenhagen’s old partner Kiley McDaniel has the Cubs with the 18th best farm: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/inside ... l-30-teams

18. Chicago Cubs - $215 million

Preseason Value - $183 million (19th)

The Cubs pulled a bit of a surprise by taking Oklahoma RHP Cade Horton with the seventh overall pick this year after he wasn't really a top-two-rounder a month before the draft. The rest of the notable players from their draft (LHP Jackson Ferris, SS Chris Paciolla, RHP Nazier Mule) were upside prep picks.

Chicago had a confusing deadline, holding some players widely expected to be traded but adding RHP Hayden Wesneski and LHP Ben Brown in smaller deals. The farm is starting to trickle into the big leagues, with 3B Chris Morel, 1B Alfonso Rivas and RHP Michael Rucker graduating, but the impact talent is still a year or two away, with CF Pete Crow-Armstrong and CF Kevin Alcantara the two big risers among the Top 100 brigade.


Teams from 16-19 are all within $10 million of the Cubs ranking.


That's obviously too low, just like #3 is too high. Average them out to the 10th best system and you are probably getting in the ballpark.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby SpongeWorthy » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:40 pm

Hrubes20 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:The Cubs have the third best farm per FG:



Meanwhile, Longenhagen’s old partner Kiley McDaniel has the Cubs with the 18th best farm: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/inside ... l-30-teams

18. Chicago Cubs - $215 million

Preseason Value - $183 million (19th)

The Cubs pulled a bit of a surprise by taking Oklahoma RHP Cade Horton with the seventh overall pick this year after he wasn't really a top-two-rounder a month before the draft. The rest of the notable players from their draft (LHP Jackson Ferris, SS Chris Paciolla, RHP Nazier Mule) were upside prep picks.

Chicago had a confusing deadline, holding some players widely expected to be traded but adding RHP Hayden Wesneski and LHP Ben Brown in smaller deals. The farm is starting to trickle into the big leagues, with 3B Chris Morel, 1B Alfonso Rivas and RHP Michael Rucker graduating, but the impact talent is still a year or two away, with CF Pete Crow-Armstrong and CF Kevin Alcantara the two big risers among the Top 100 brigade.


Teams from 16-19 are all within $10 million of the Cubs ranking.


That's obviously too low, just like #3 is too high. Average them out to the 10th best system and you are probably getting in the ballpark.


seems pretty bad if all we have to show for the last couple years is a top third farm system and a bad ML roster
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby UMFan83 » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:51 pm

SpongeWorthy wrote:
Hrubes20 wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Meanwhile, Longenhagen’s old partner Kiley McDaniel has the Cubs with the 18th best farm: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/inside ... l-30-teams



Teams from 16-19 are all within $10 million of the Cubs ranking.


That's obviously too low, just like #3 is too high. Average them out to the 10th best system and you are probably getting in the ballpark.


seems pretty bad if all we have to show for the last couple years is a top third farm system and a bad ML roster


Plus a pretty low committed payroll moving forward giving them (theoretically) the ability to spend.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:17 pm

Something seems a wee bit goofy with the methodology that Kiley is putting out there. By his own description Francisco Alvarez the singular player is the 25th best farm system. Yes elite prospects have disproportionate value, but when the FV scale is also forcing you to keep high variance prospects at lower levels a grade or two lower than they're *likely* to reach(never mind the stretch ceiling some have), it seems like you're creating a funhouse mirror that's basically just a weighted ranking of your Top 25-50.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CubinNY » Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:58 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:Something seems a wee bit goofy with the methodology that Kiley is putting out there. By his own description Francisco Alvarez the singular player is the 25th best farm system. Yes elite prospects have disproportionate value, but when the FV scale is also forcing you to keep high variance prospects at lower levels a grade or two lower than they're *likely* to reach(never mind the stretch ceiling some have), it seems like you're creating a funhouse mirror that's basically just a weighted ranking of your Top 25-50.

Agreed.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby mul21 » Wed Aug 10, 2022 3:25 pm

Anybody have access to the new Cubs top 30 on BA?
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:38 pm

mul21 wrote:Anybody have access to the new Cubs top 30 on BA?


1. PCA
2. Davis
3. C. Hernández
4. Kilian
5. Alcántara
6. Wesneski
7. Horton
8. Cassie
9. Wicks
10. Canario
11. Brown
12. Made
13. Herz
14. Amaya
15. Velázquez (who technically graduated last week)
16. Triantos
17. Piñango
18. Ballesteros
19. Ferris
20. Mervis
21. Sanders
22. Hill
23. Strumpf
24. K. Franklin
25. Jensen
26. Palencia
27. Ball
28. Thompson
29. Márquez
30. Howard
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby JeffH » Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:48 pm

Any outfit that ranks Chase Strumpf over Ed Howard as a prospect should be immediately disbanded.
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Tryptamine » Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:56 pm

JeffH wrote:Any outfit that ranks Chase Strumpf over Ed Howard as a prospect should be immediately disbanded.


What, you don't like the 24 year old striking out 35% of the time in AA?
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby Bertz » Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:09 pm

The funny thing is I read the first 20 names and I was like "this is much better than I've come to expect from BA the last few years!" and then by the 20's it completely went off the rails
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Re: 2021-2022 Offseason Prospect Lists and Rankings

Postby JeffH » Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:17 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
JeffH wrote:Any outfit that ranks Chase Strumpf over Ed Howard as a prospect should be immediately disbanded.


What, you don't like the 24 year old striking out 35% of the time in AA?


I'm sure he's a lovely gentleman who loves his family, gives to charity, and is kind to animals, but he's not much of a prospect.
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