General Cubs Chit-Chat

[TomtheBombadil]

From the MLBTR chat series with former players:

As a player that got exposed to multiple organizations, is there something that sticks out to you that one organization did really well (or badly) versus the others you saw?

Jacob Turner: I thought the leadership group of the Chicago Cubs was excellent when I was there. Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein did an outstanding job communicating to players expectations and opportunities. That is all players truly want.

[Bertz]

With the position player group likely settled, what does everyone want to see the lineup look like next year? Let's assume that to open the year at least Hosmer starts while Mervis is at Iowa.

I think I'd go something like this:

LF - Happ
RF - Suzuki
SS - Swanson
RF - Bellinger
1B - Mancini
DH - Hosmer
3B - Wisdom/Morel
2B - Hoerner
C - Gomes

If Bellinger remembers how to hit, that lineup actually goes pretty hard. Loads up OBP at the top, has power throughout, and does a good job of separating lefties and righties while also splitting up high K guys with more contact oriented hitters.

If Bellinger's not hitting, it becomes a lot harder to load Happ and Seiya at the top. You maybe look at something more like:

2B - Hoerner
DH - Hosmer
RF - Suzuki
LF - Happ
SS - Swanson
1B - Mancini
CF - Bellinger
3B - Wisdom
C - Gomes

I think in this scenario basically everything south of Swanson changes every day based on matchups. It can still work with the options on the bench and at Iowa, but Ross is going to have to really earn his keep. I've sort of thought this before, but seeing it written out I think it's clear that a Bellinger rebound is the easiest most direct path to this team being good.

[champaignchris]

With the position player group likely settled, what does everyone want to see the lineup look like next year? Let's assume that to open the year at least Hosmer starts while Mervis is at Iowa.

I think I'd go something like this:

LF - Happ
RF - Suzuki
SS - Swanson
RF - Bellinger
1B - Mancini
DH - Hosmer
3B - Wisdom/Morel
2B - Hoerner
C - Gomes

If Bellinger remembers how to hit, that lineup actually goes pretty hard. Loads up OBP at the top, has power throughout, and does a good job of separating lefties and righties while also splitting up high K guys with more contact oriented hitters.

If Bellinger's not hitting, it becomes a lot harder to load Happ and Seiya at the top. You maybe look at something more like:

2B - Hoerner
DH - Hosmer
RF - Suzuki
LF - Happ
SS - Swanson
1B - Mancini
CF - Bellinger
3B - Wisdom
C - Gomes

I think in this scenario basically everything south of Swanson changes every day based on matchups. It can still work with the options on the bench and at Iowa, but Ross is going to have to really earn his keep. I've sort of thought this before, but seeing it written out I think it's clear that a Bellinger rebound is the easiest most direct path to this team being good.

The only real platoon opportunity I see is at catcher. Gomes mashes lefties. Barnhart hits righties better than Gomes does, but it’s not as pronounced. I’ll be curious if they play the catcher based on who’s pitching for the Cubs or who’s pitching for the opponent.

If/when Mervis comes up, there will be some platoon opportunities at 1B/DH.

Looking at handedness, Madrigal would be far more useful if he were a left handed hitter. His only place on this team right now seems to be insurance against Hoerner or Swanson getting hurt.

[TomtheBombadil]

I'm actually pro Hosmer in the leadoff spot. His career .336 OBP is sadly one of the highest on the roster, makes a ton of contact, hits the ball pretty hard, you'd like to think he's experienced enough to give a tough, deep PA consistently. Suzuki in the 2 spot. That's about as far as I get

[Cubswin11]

Vs RHP I think I’d do something like this. Lots of L/R balance and blends the OBP/Power/Contact guys back to back.

Happ LF
Suzuki RF
Hosmer 1B/DH
Swanson SS
Mancini/Mervis DH1B
Nico 2B
Bellinger CF
Wisdom/Morel/Mckinstry/Mastrobuoni 3B (pick the best matchup for the day)
Gomes/Barnhart C

[Bull]

With the position player group likely settled, what does everyone want to see the lineup look like next year? Let's assume that to open the year at least Hosmer starts while Mervis is at Iowa.

I think I'd go something like this:

LF - Happ
RF - Suzuki
SS - Swanson
RF - Bellinger
1B - Mancini
DH - Hosmer
3B - Wisdom/Morel
2B - Hoerner
C - Gomes

If Bellinger remembers how to hit, that lineup actually goes pretty hard. Loads up OBP at the top, has power throughout, and does a good job of separating lefties and righties while also splitting up high K guys with more contact oriented hitters.

If Bellinger's not hitting, it becomes a lot harder to load Happ and Seiya at the top. You maybe look at something more like:

2B - Hoerner
DH - Hosmer
RF - Suzuki
LF - Happ
SS - Swanson
1B - Mancini
CF - Bellinger
3B - Wisdom
C - Gomes

I think in this scenario basically everything south of Swanson changes every day based on matchups. It can still work with the options on the bench and at Iowa, but Ross is going to have to really earn his keep. I've sort of thought this before, but seeing it written out I think it's clear that a Bellinger rebound is the easiest most direct path to this team being good.

The only real platoon opportunity I see is at catcher. Gomes mashes lefties. Barnhart hits righties better than Gomes does, but it’s not as pronounced. I’ll be curious if they play the catcher based on who’s pitching for the Cubs or who’s pitching for the opponent.

If/when Mervis comes up, there will be some platoon opportunities at 1B/DH.

Looking at handedness, Madrigal would be far more useful if he were a left handed hitter. His only place on this team right now seems to be insurance against Hoerner or Swanson getting hurt.

I think that’s a yes to both. It will be by Cubs pitcher, but if they really want the other in the lineup, that one will DH.

[cl smooth]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

[Backtobanks]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

That's pretty much what I've been reading.

[Bertz]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

Back of the napkin you'd probably say something like 83.
Coming into the offseason they were at 74

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdl ... standings/

They've added this offseason 13ish WAR. That's not going to equate to 13 wins though because it was spread so much through the roster, rather than being concentrated in a few spots. So I think depending on how you evaluate some of the particulars you'd probably say they added 7-10 wins.

[CubinNY]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

Back of the napkin you'd probably say something like 83.
Coming into the offseason they were at 74

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdl ... standings/

They've added this offseason 13ish WAR. That's not going to equate to 13 wins though because it was spread so much through the roster, rather than being concentrated in a few spots. So I think depending on how you evaluate some of the particulars you'd probably say they added 7-10 wins.

I hate these analogies, but it's a high-floor, low-ceiling team. If things break well for the Cubs and they are in contention, they can use some of their vaunted depth in the minors to maybe get them to 90 or so wins.

[Bull]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

Back of the napkin you'd probably say something like 83.
Coming into the offseason they were at 74

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdl ... standings/

They've added this offseason 13ish WAR. That's not going to equate to 13 wins though because it was spread so much through the roster, rather than being concentrated in a few spots. So I think depending on how you evaluate some of the particulars you'd probably say they added 7-10 wins.

I think you have to also consider that they were better in the last half than the first half, making that 74 perhaps not the true baseline.

[Tryptamine]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

79-81 is basically where I'm at. My bigger problem is that this is going to be one incredibly boring team to watch. No super exciting prospects, no mega stars, nothing to really get excited about until the 2nd half.

[17 Seconds]

What’s a realistic win total for this team? 80-81 wins?

Back of the napkin you'd probably say something like 83.
Coming into the offseason they were at 74

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-absurdl ... standings/

They've added this offseason 13ish WAR. That's not going to equate to 13 wins though because it was spread so much through the roster, rather than being concentrated in a few spots. So I think depending on how you evaluate some of the particulars you'd probably say they added 7-10 wins.

I think you have to also consider that they were better in the last half than the first half, making that 74 perhaps not the true baseline.

that 74 number doesn't come from last year's win total, it's a new projection. it just happened to be the same as last year's win total

[Bertz]

https://theathletic.com/4128648/2023/01 ... rs-fantasy

The article is written from a fantasy slant, but Estrada and Merryweather get some sleeper love. Estrada's SSS results actually put him up with the tier 1 guys. Also I think Wick's marks are relatively encouraging given that we don't actually expect him to end up the closer.

[TomtheBombadil]

Saw this on CI:



Estrada drew both of these whiffs

[TomtheBombadil]

https://www.pitcherlist.com/hot-second- ... attention/

Justin Steele

Unlike the previous three guys in this article, I don’t think Justin Steele necessarily has the stuff to be drafted in the top 15 starters for 2023, however, I do still think he deserves a bit more attention than he’s been getting. His last seven starts were kind of crazy with a 0.98 ERA and 31% K-rate across 36.2 IPs. The FIP over that stretch (2.76) and K-BB% (22.4) hint at something really good, but not quite so dominant as the ERA would initially indicate. Steele is quietly among the toughest starters in the league to barrel up as his 3.9% barrel rate last year was second among starters with 100 IPs. His fastball was almost historically difficult to barrel.

Justin Steele nearly made history last year for the most fastballs thrown without allowing a homer. He didn’t get this record as Kyle Schwarber broke the streak in the very next game, but it’s another piece of evidence that there’s more than meets the eye with Steele. His fastball only tops out around 93-94 and his slider, while sporting good movement, isn’t otherworldly. Why is he so deceptive, then? Part of the answer is possibly seam-shifted wake. One way of analyzing how much Steele is benefitting from seam-shifted wake is by looking at the difference between spin-based movement and observed movement on his fastball.

Steele’s fastball movement deviates more than any other starter in the league and it’s only rivaled by Julio Urías. He talks in this article about how he can slightly adjust the movement of his fastball by varying where he throws it and how hard he throws it. This ‘consistently inconsistent’ fastball makes it nearly impossible for hitters to barrel him up because of the lower-than-expected arm-side run and deviation in movement versus what they’d typically expect based on the spin profile. His slider has remained a solid complementary piece that is able to get outs with a 16% swinging strike rate and .178 wOBA, so that one-two punch allows him to miss barrels, generate a good rate of ground balls, and still miss a decent amount of bats. He’s acknowledged how a third pitch would be important for him, so I imagine he’d try to increase the usage of his changeup going into 2023 to start the year. If it pairs well at all with the fastball, I think Steele could be a great source of good ratios while providing an average strikeout rate due to his ability to avoid the barrel of the bat.

Alls I’m asking is Tony Gonsolin

[Sammy Sofa]

Saw this on CI:



Estrada drew both of these whiffs

Jed still keeping the inexplicable "nah, we don't want more guys who can throw fastballs" dream alive.

[d_money]

On the Score, Chip Carey referred to Dansby as a modern day Jeff Blauser. Holy horsefeathers. Haha

[CubinNY]

Saw this on CI:



Estrada drew both of these whiffs

Jed still keeping the inexplicable "nah, we don't want more guys who can throw fastballs" dream alive.

I think that is primary reason they are valuing defense so highly. Perhaps also why they let Willy walk. They know what they have now and are building a strength to compensate for the perceived weakness. However, hard heat isn't the only way to get a K.

[Irrelevant Dude]

On the Score, Chip Carey referred to Dansby as a modern day Jeff Blauser. Holy horsefeathers. Haha

Was that supposed to be a compliment?

[d_money]

On the Score, Chip Carey referred to Dansby as a modern day Jeff Blauser. Holy horsefeathers. Haha

Was that supposed to be a compliment?

Yeah, Chip thought Blauser was a good all around player, blah blah blah. Blausers tenure with the Cubs was less than stellar. Not sure what Chipper is/was thinking

[Bertz]

On the pitcher side, assuming Jed pulls the trigger on another FA lefty, I'd be surprised if any of these guys have a shot at making the team. Merryweather and Estrada don't have iron grips on bullpen spots, but I think if either fails to win a spot out of ST it's more likely that someone on the 40 man (e.g. Sampson or Rucker) gets the spot instead.

On the position player side, I'm wondering more and more wonder if Deluzio has a real shot at a roster spot, with one of Morel or Madrigal opening the year at Iowa. It just seems a little weird to have all this focus on defense and then break camp with only one guy on the roster who can play an average or better CF.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

On the position player side, I'm wondering more and more wonder if Deluzio has a real shot at a roster spot, with one of Morel or Madrigal opening the year at Iowa. It just seems a little weird to have all this focus on defense and then break camp with only one guy on the roster who can play an average or better CF.

I wonder how meaningful it is that Morel is listed as an OF on the cubs.com roster. CF was where he spent the most time in MLB last year, but he came up as an IF and had equal playing time between IF and OF in MLB.

I think Deluzio's biggest hurdle would be roster opportunity cost. Someone has to get dropped for the 40 man, and the only position players who fit as candidates to my eyes (McKinstry & Mastrobuoni) have had several opportunities to get DFA'd and it hasn't happened yet.

[Tim]

On the position player side, I'm wondering more and more wonder if Deluzio has a real shot at a roster spot, with one of Morel or Madrigal opening the year at Iowa. It just seems a little weird to have all this focus on defense and then break camp with only one guy on the roster who can play an average or better CF.

I wonder how meaningful it is that Morel is listed as an OF on the cubs.com roster. CF was where he spent the most time in MLB last year, but he came up as an IF and had equal playing time between IF and OF in MLB.

I think Deluzio's biggest hurdle would be roster opportunity cost. Someone has to get dropped for the 40 man, and the only position players who fit as candidates to my eyes (McKinstry & Mastrobuoni) have had several opportunities to get DFA'd and it hasn't happened yet.

By the time he'd need to be added, a few guys will be on the 60 day DL

[Transmogrified Tiger]

On the position player side, I'm wondering more and more wonder if Deluzio has a real shot at a roster spot, with one of Morel or Madrigal opening the year at Iowa. It just seems a little weird to have all this focus on defense and then break camp with only one guy on the roster who can play an average or better CF.

I wonder how meaningful it is that Morel is listed as an OF on the cubs.com roster. CF was where he spent the most time in MLB last year, but he came up as an IF and had equal playing time between IF and OF in MLB.

I think Deluzio's biggest hurdle would be roster opportunity cost. Someone has to get dropped for the 40 man, and the only position players who fit as candidates to my eyes (McKinstry & Mastrobuoni) have had several opportunities to get DFA'd and it hasn't happened yet.

By the time he'd need to be added, a few guys will be on the 60 day DL

On the position player side? They're already at 19 position players which is a little heavy for current roster construction. 8 of those (including Morel) are outfielders too. Sure Heuer and maybe Roberts or even Hendricks could be 60 Day'd by April, but I'm not sure that creates opportunity for Deluzio in particular.

This is not to say that Deluzio has zero chance of making the roster through some combination of performance or injury, but I think the default assumption is that they're comfortable with the CF depth(Bellinger, Morel, Velazquez, soon Davis) already on the 40 man, even if it's not plus defensively.