CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Bertz » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:35 pm

David wrote:
Bertz wrote:
David wrote:https://twitter.com/KenTremendous/status/1243230624741117952?s=20

i'm obviously on mike's side of this battle, but this seems more than a tad disingenuous, does it not?

a - 100% of the population isn't going to get it

b - even if they did, given the very limited testing thus far, that mortality rate is likely wayyyyyyyy lower.

is there even a worst case scenario imaginable in which anywhere close to 11M people would die from this thing? why even say that?


I think that Hammer and the Dance article that made its way around last weekend did a good job of laying out ~10M as the sort of upper bound.

Overall though yeah, I think because way too many people are being so flippant about this, there's some overcompensating in the other direction from some people. "Oh you went out for groceries twice this week? THANKS FOR LITERALLY KILLING MY GRANDMA"


yep

and was that 10M worldwide? because i'm pretty sure he is saying 11M americans


US only. Here's the money quote:



If we do nothing: Everybody gets infected, the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, the mortality explodes, and ~10 million people die (blue bars). For the back-of-the-envelope numbers: if ~75% of Americans get infected and 4% die, that’s 10 million deaths, or around 25 times the number of US deaths in World War II.

You might wonder: “That sounds like a lot. I’ve heard much less than that!”

So what’s the catch? With all these numbers, it’s easy to get confused. But there’s only two numbers that matter: What share of people will catch the virus and fall sick, and what share of them will die. If only 25% are sick (because the others have the virus but don’t have symptoms so aren’t counted as cases), and the fatality rate is 0.6% instead of 4%, you end up with 500k deaths in the US.

If we don’t do anything, the number of deaths from the coronavirus will probably land between these two numbers. The chasm between these extremes is mostly driven by the fatality rate, so understanding it better is crucial. What really causes the coronavirus deaths?


Re-reading it looks like that 10 doesnt take collateral damage (e.g. heart attacks who can't get a bed) into account though. And as he explains in the next section that's up to another 2M, so the upper bound really is probably 12M-ish
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:37 pm

David wrote:https://twitter.com/KenTremendous/status/1243230624741117952?s=20

i'm obviously on mike's side of this battle, but this seems more than a tad disingenuous, does it not?

a - 100% of the population isn't going to get it

b - even if they did, given the very limited testing thus far, that mortality rate is likely wayyyyyyyy lower.

is there even a worst case scenario imaginable in which anywhere close to 11M people would die from this thing? why even say that?


That Imperial College Study, which got everyone freaked out in the first place, said that 2.2 million Americans would die in an absolute worst case scenario.

As it has seemingly been demonstrated by looking at the few instances where there actually is an accurate denominator (the cruise ships, town of Vo), the infection rate of the general populace is somewhere between 2.7% and 17%, depending on conditions. The cruise ship was essentially a worst case scenario for conditions and it manifested in 17%. That said, the actual death rate is likely well below 1%, as low as 0.06% according to the Stanford medical professors.

So let’s take the worst case figures from the control group tests (Diamond Princess) of 1% mortality of 17% of US population infected. That amounts to about 550,000 deaths. If we use the Vo sample group, which is probably a more accurate reflection of how this effects an actual community, it’s a 2.7% infection rate with a 0.06% mortality rate, which amounts to 8.7 million Americans infected and 5,200 deaths.

Obviously the real percentages of infection will vary wildly in the real world just like in those control groups. For most of the country it be might be closer to those 2.7% numbers from Vo. A place like NYC where people are stacked up on each other by the millions may trend closer to the cruise ship percentages of infection.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:40 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
David wrote:https://twitter.com/KenTremendous/status/1243230624741117952?s=20

i'm obviously on mike's side of this battle, but this seems more than a tad disingenuous, does it not?

a - 100% of the population isn't going to get it

b - even if they did, given the very limited testing thus far, that mortality rate is likely wayyyyyyyy lower.

is there even a worst case scenario imaginable in which anywhere close to 11M people would die from this thing? why even say that?


That Imperial College Study, which got everyone freaked out in the first place, said that 2.2 million Americans would die in an absolute worst case scenario.

As it has seemingly been demonstrated by looking at the few instances where there actually is an accurate denominator (the cruise ships, town of Vo), the infection rate of the general populace is somewhere between 2.7% and 17%, depending on conditions. The cruise ship was essentially a worst case scenario for conditions and it manifested in 17%. That said, the actual death rate is likely well below 1%, as low as 0.06% according to the Stanford medical professors.

So let’s take the worst case figures from the control group tests (Diamond Princess) of 1% mortality of 17% of US population infected. That amounts to about 550,000 deaths. If we use the Vo sample group, which is probably a more accurate reflection of how this effects an actual community, it’s a 2.7% infection rate with a 0.06% mortality rate, which amounts to 8.7 million Americans infected and 5,200 deaths.

Obviously the real percentages of infection will vary wildly in the real world just like in those control groups. For most of the country it be might be closer to those 2.7% numbers from Vo. A place like NYC where people are stacked up on each other by the millions may trend closer to the cruise ship percentages of infection.


What about mutations? Are mutations likely to make the virus more or less deadly? Or more or less contagious? I know there's been some talk about that but can't remember the conclusion.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Rob » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:43 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
David wrote:https://twitter.com/KenTremendous/status/1243230624741117952?s=20

i'm obviously on mike's side of this battle, but this seems more than a tad disingenuous, does it not?

a - 100% of the population isn't going to get it

b - even if they did, given the very limited testing thus far, that mortality rate is likely wayyyyyyyy lower.

is there even a worst case scenario imaginable in which anywhere close to 11M people would die from this thing? why even say that?


That Imperial College Study, which got everyone freaked out in the first place, said that 2.2 million Americans would die in an absolute worst case scenario.

As it has seemingly been demonstrated by looking at the few instances where there actually is an accurate denominator (the cruise ships, town of Vo), the infection rate of the general populace is somewhere between 2.7% and 17%, depending on conditions. The cruise ship was essentially a worst case scenario for conditions and it manifested in 17%. That said, the actual death rate is likely well below 1%, as low as 0.06% according to the Stanford medical professors.

So let’s take the worst case figures from the control group tests (Diamond Princess) of 1% mortality of 17% of US population infected. That amounts to about 550,000 deaths. If we use the Vo sample group, which is probably a more accurate reflection of how this effects an actual community, it’s a 2.7% infection rate with a 0.06% mortality rate, which amounts to 8.7 million Americans infected and 5,200 deaths.

Obviously the real percentages of infection will vary wildly in the real world just like in those control groups. For most of the country it be might be closer to those 2.7% numbers from Vo. A place like NYC where people are stacked up on each other by the millions may trend closer to the cruise ship percentages of infection.


What about mutations? Are mutations likely to make the virus more or less deadly? Or more or less contagious? I know there's been some talk about that but can't remember the conclusion.


I don't remember which article I read it in, but the last thing I saw said mutations would probably move towards more contagious and less deadly.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:48 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:56 pm

I think the larger point is why are the LA Times writing a breathless piece on what some waffle house cook thinks about COVID-19?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby wvcbxl » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:28 pm

TIL that Germany performs half a million tests per week. :bow:
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tim » Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:56 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
David wrote:https://twitter.com/KenTremendous/status/1243230624741117952?s=20

i'm obviously on mike's side of this battle, but this seems more than a tad disingenuous, does it not?

a - 100% of the population isn't going to get it

b - even if they did, given the very limited testing thus far, that mortality rate is likely wayyyyyyyy lower.

is there even a worst case scenario imaginable in which anywhere close to 11M people would die from this thing? why even say that?


That Imperial College Study, which got everyone freaked out in the first place, said that 2.2 million Americans would die in an absolute worst case scenario.

As it has seemingly been demonstrated by looking at the few instances where there actually is an accurate denominator (the cruise ships, town of Vo), the infection rate of the general populace is somewhere between 2.7% and 17%, depending on conditions. The cruise ship was essentially a worst case scenario for conditions and it manifested in 17%. That said, the actual death rate is likely well below 1%, as low as 0.06% according to the Stanford medical professors.

So let’s take the worst case figures from the control group tests (Diamond Princess) of 1% mortality of 17% of US population infected. That amounts to about 550,000 deaths. If we use the Vo sample group, which is probably a more accurate reflection of how this effects an actual community, it’s a 2.7% infection rate with a 0.06% mortality rate, which amounts to 8.7 million Americans infected and 5,200 deaths.

Obviously the real percentages of infection will vary wildly in the real world just like in those control groups. For most of the country it be might be closer to those 2.7% numbers from Vo. A place like NYC where people are stacked up on each other by the millions may trend closer to the cruise ship percentages of infection.

I'll say it again. Those percentages and the results of that Stanford study do not match up with the reality of what we're seeing. We're going to reach 5200 deaths within the next 10 days. Deaths will continue to double at their current pace until we see the number of cases level off. Cases in the US are still climbing at the fastest rate of any country in the world. Unfortunately, we're going to blow past that number of deaths by a very large amount.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Irrelevant Dude » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:00 pm

This guy is a real piece of work.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/03/26/peter-navarro-intv-supply-of-masks-medical-supplies-sot-ath-vpx.cnn

All the blame goes to China and previous administrations, of course.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:20 pm

Rob wrote:
I don't remember which article I read it in, but the last thing I saw said mutations would probably move towards more contagious and less deadly.
I'm guessing that the article said that the evolution of viruses trends toward more contagious and less deadly, but that doesn't mean that mutations themselves tend to do that. It takes time and selective processes to shoe horn viruses to be more contagious and less deadly. The watchmaker is blind. A lot of people have this virus now, and almost all of them are not dying from it. A mutation could tweak it to become more or less deadly or contatious and it would still be viable to spread all over the place. That said, the chances that this thing would mutate so fast that our immune system and antibodies (after an infection) are no longer effective are very very low.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby The Logan » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:07 pm

Just saw LA extended lockdown until at least May
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:32 pm

i'm terrified that ron desantis will be the biggest villain in america in 2 weeks
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:35 pm

There's no point in trying to use rate of cases in the US as a metric because the rate of reported cases still pretty much just reports expansion in testing and not any change in the real number of cases.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:40 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:There's no point in trying to use rate of cases in the US as a metric because the rate of reported cases still pretty much just reports expansion in testing and not any change in the real number of cases.


is this in response to tim's post? because that's kinda what i was thinking when i read that
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:55 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:56 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:There's no point in trying to use rate of cases in the US as a metric because the rate of reported cases still pretty much just reports expansion in testing and not any change in the real number of cases.


i've been getting annoyed at people who just post that line chart and then gawk at it. "whoa guys not liking our path here. yikes".
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:59 pm


Yeah, but that's only because we test so much! ...what's that you say? Oh.

Well, of course, we have the third largest population in the world. It only follows that we...Trump is calling this "the Chinese Virus!?" Oh yeah, that's where this all started. Hmmm...

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:01 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:

Yeah, but that's only because we test so much! ...what's that you say? Oh.

Well, of course, we have the third largest population in the world. It only follows that we...Trump is calling this "the Chinese Virus!?" Oh yeah, that's where this all started. Hmmm...

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:06 pm

On an interesting aside, do any of you know why the Spanish Flu was associated with Spain?

It was because Spain was one of the few countries that was not involved in WWI. They were neutral, and thus didn't have as much of an incentive to dampen reports of the effects and deaths of the pandemic to the public and thus appear weak to warring countries. It was just the only Western country that was attempting to accurately report on the virus's effects, so public perception was that Spain was the epicenter.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:51 am

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:On an interesting aside, do any of you know why the Spanish Flu was associated with Spain?

It was because Spain was one of the few countries that was not involved in WWI. They were neutral, and thus didn't have as much of an incentive to dampen reports of the effects and deaths of the pandemic to the public and thus appear weak to warring countries. It was just the only Western country that was attempting to accurately report on the virus's effects, so public perception was that Spain was the epicenter.



Yes. It really had nothing to do with Spain. But you know, this is the CHINA virus.

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:55 am

Did you know that teaching courses online that weren't designed to be taught online is an enormous pain in the ass? Because it its.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:03 am

The point of the Oxford study wasn't "we definitely have tens of millions of undiagnosed, low-severity cases." It was that the low-quality information we have could support a wide variety of scenarios depending on really important information we don't have.

If you wanted to measure the potential impact of a viral outbreak, here's the absolute most important information you have to have:

1) How many infected do you already have (we have no clue)
2) How effectively does it transmit in your population (we've narrowed this one down a little bit but not as far as we'd like)
3) What is your social response and how effective is it at reducing transmission? (we don't really know and we have widely different responses by region)
4) Is any portion of your population natively non-susceptible to the virus? (this is super important and we've barely begun to try to do the testing that would tell us)
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Andy » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:32 am

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:On an interesting aside, do any of you know why the Spanish Flu was associated with Spain?

It was because Spain was one of the few countries that was not involved in WWI. They were neutral, and thus didn't have as much of an incentive to dampen reports of the effects and deaths of the pandemic to the public and thus appear weak to warring countries. It was just the only Western country that was attempting to accurately report on the virus's effects, so public perception was that Spain was the epicenter.

The things I saw said that most informed observers now believe that flu originated around Kansas somewhere.

Funny how things happen sometimes, I guess.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:45 am

this is an actual quote

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby ChiCubsFan » Fri Mar 27, 2020 3:27 am

We’re horsefeathers.
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