David wrote:Bertz wrote:David wrote:https://twitter.com/KenTremendous/status/1243230624741117952?s=20
i'm obviously on mike's side of this battle, but this seems more than a tad disingenuous, does it not?
a - 100% of the population isn't going to get it
b - even if they did, given the very limited testing thus far, that mortality rate is likely wayyyyyyyy lower.
is there even a worst case scenario imaginable in which anywhere close to 11M people would die from this thing? why even say that?
I think that Hammer and the Dance article that made its way around last weekend did a good job of laying out ~10M as the sort of upper bound.
Overall though yeah, I think because way too many people are being so flippant about this, there's some overcompensating in the other direction from some people. "Oh you went out for groceries twice this week? THANKS FOR LITERALLY KILLING MY GRANDMA"
and was that 10M worldwide? because i'm pretty sure he is saying 11M americans
US only. Here's the money quote:
If we do nothing: Everybody gets infected, the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, the mortality explodes, and ~10 million people die (blue bars). For the back-of-the-envelope numbers: if ~75% of Americans get infected and 4% die, that’s 10 million deaths, or around 25 times the number of US deaths in World War II.
You might wonder: “That sounds like a lot. I’ve heard much less than that!”
So what’s the catch? With all these numbers, it’s easy to get confused. But there’s only two numbers that matter: What share of people will catch the virus and fall sick, and what share of them will die. If only 25% are sick (because the others have the virus but don’t have symptoms so aren’t counted as cases), and the fatality rate is 0.6% instead of 4%, you end up with 500k deaths in the US.
If we don’t do anything, the number of deaths from the coronavirus will probably land between these two numbers. The chasm between these extremes is mostly driven by the fatality rate, so understanding it better is crucial. What really causes the coronavirus deaths?
Re-reading it looks like that 10 doesnt take collateral damage (e.g. heart attacks who can't get a bed) into account though. And as he explains in the next section that's up to another 2M, so the upper bound really is probably 12M-ish